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Author Topic: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 5)  (Read 174616 times)

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mathdude

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1900 on: October 08, 2021, 11:33:23 am »

-snip- (A bunch of discussion about what town/scum e/faust could look like in various scenarios) -snip-

This is all very good discussion for robotic mafia play, always doing what (on face value) is best for you, your reads, and your team.  But as I've been saying, the whole idea that it can be brought up here as "not a good move" is exactly the reason I think something's going on here, mainly with faust.
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mathdude

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1901 on: October 08, 2021, 11:46:42 am »

It's good to spell this out since we know the setup now.

Scum has started the game with the following roles: Roleblocker, 1-shot Strongman, Goon. That outcome means that immediately, they knew the setup was either TTTTXX or TTTXXX (where X stands for an unknwon letter). I.e., there are at most three letters that give town powers.

At start of D3, scum has the following information: There is a 1-shot Doctor and there are Masons. How could that happen?
Masons only happen with M or MMM. But MMM would mean there is no space for other PRs. Since EFHW flipped other PR, it must be M.
So we have TTTMXX.

Now, there are 2 ways to get a 1-shot Doctor: Either DD (giving Doctor + 1-shot Doctor) or E (giving just a 1-shot Doctor). With DD, there would be another PR out there that is a Doctor. With E, the remaining letter could be anything.

Then, e claims Cop (assuming e is town here). A full Cop requires 2 letters: CC (or EEE). But scum already knows there isn't room for that. So e is a 1-shot Cop, which they now know. But then they know the setup: It's TTTMEC (or TTTMEE, which is equivalent). There is no room for another town PR, so after that claim scum knows that all other townies are VTs.

This means that A) at the time after e's claim, scum knew town!Swowl would claim VT B) at the time after e's claim, scum knew he wasn't a full Cop. joth's above narrative says that my decision to push for e's exile was based on not knowing what Swowl would claim and not knowing whether e is a full Cop, but both of these points are proven wrong by the above.

Wouldn't scum have started with Godfather, Roleblocker, and 1-shot Strongman?

Otherwise, I do agree with your setup analysis, that we are at TTTMEC or TTTMEE (which are the same thing here), as long as e is town.

But I don't agree with your conclusion... because e could be scum.  If he fake-claimed guilty on partner (which I know people say is unlikely), then you all know it's actually TTTME, and there's still a possibility for the final letter to be E (another 1-shot doctor, or a real 1-shot cop), C (a real 1-shot cop), D (full doctor), or even B (roleblocker), or another T (VT).  I think it's even possible e is scum and you (faust) are town and were just mistaken, while he, iguana, and their other partner are glad you jumped in hard on e so they didn't have to get as involved in the discussion.
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mathdude

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1902 on: October 08, 2021, 11:48:46 am »

yeah, a narrative for both faust and me as scum is a bit fantastical.  Easiest explanation is that both faust and I are town.

Easiest explanation is often the one scum wants us to believe.  If you've set yourself up well (particularly with a bold play), then it's very easy to read scum!you as town.
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mathdude

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1903 on: October 08, 2021, 12:01:57 pm »

I just read through Swowl and Math's D3.

I felt like swowl immediately believed my claim and jumped onto iguana after me. Which one of the biggest reasons someone might unequivocally believe me is because they knew that iguana was, in fact, scum. They also went through and were one of my most ardent defenders all day, and it is easy to defend a position that you know is true (because you are scum).

It seemed like math was just commenting on stuff that happened for activity and then eventually votes for me. I don't know, didn't really feel genuine town read to me, more of a last ditch hope that people would go ahead and exile me rather than iguana.

I didn't go back to D1/D2 to look at how they interact with each other and if it makes sense that they are partners with iguana, but I think just based on D3 I would lean toward exiling math first then swowl next. Definitely see a narrative for an iguana/math/swowl team.

This is very convenient assumptions.

Swowl believed your claim because he "new that iguana was, in fact, scum".  Or he believed your claim because when a cop finds a scum, we vote the scum out.

And I "commented on stuff that happened for activity and then eventually vote for you", as a "last ditch hope that people would go ahead and exile you rather than iguana".  My reaction to your claim was similar to faust's, in that the way you claimed (timing, vagueness, etc.) was scummy.  I did feel (and still do) that if you were a 1-shot cop that found scum, you would have opened the day with that - your role has no further purpose, and you did the maximum you could do... you found scum, and once we vote them out, you are VT.  You wouldn't have started with a strong vote on him, keeping things vague, and only when it wasn't quite going as planned, pull out the claim of "I investigated him and found scum".  And your reason was "I was considering lying" doesn't cut it for me.

I know in my chum-to-scum, I had you fair high toward chum, because you claimed cop and we did correctly exile iguana (contrary to my beliefs and vote yesterday)... but now that I'm working through this, I've changed my mind.

As far as I can see, you are likely still lying.  Maybe you are scum, and did fake claim 1-shot cop, and were hedging initially to see how it would be taken (and how the claims would play out).  Or maybe you are a full cop, lied and said 1-shot so you wouldn't seem like a threat anymore (and draw the night kill), and have 2 more investigation results.  If you are town, full cop, I don't see what your move is... you obviously have 1 or 2 more town results (1 if scum RB'ed you), but don't want to share them because then it's admitting you lied, and it messes up all our setup discussions... and you don't have a scum result, or you would have told us already, even despite the fact that it would show you were lying.

So 1-shot cop doesn't make sense, based on how you presented results yesterday.  Full cop makes very little sense.  Scum makes more sense.  Kill a partner early, get town-cred for the rest of the game, but it just didn't work out the way you were hoping.
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mathdude

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1904 on: October 08, 2021, 12:06:24 pm »

-snip-
... more of a last ditch hope that people would go ahead and exile me rather than iguana.

I didn't go back to D1/D2 to look at how they interact with each other and if it makes sense that they are partners with iguana, but I think just based on D3 I would lean toward exiling math first then swowl next. Definitely see a narrative for an iguana/math/swowl team.

Forgot to finish commenting on what you said, as I got down a side trail of now fully believing you are lying in some way.

My vote wasn't a last-ditch effort of exiling you over iguana.  Read the whole day... I was skeptical of you the whole day.  I just didn't vote until later in the day, because if I was wrong, and 1 or 2 others voted you too, scum could quick-hammer to get to lylo even if it potentially implicated another one of them.

If you are scum, you would obviously want to exile me first, and Swowl next.  That's why you killed MiX last night... so you could just trail off the "MiX said many times we should exile math, so we should definitely do it".  Get that misexile, with dead-town-backup-argument so you can be at lylo.
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jotheonah

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1905 on: October 08, 2021, 12:53:47 pm »

It's good to spell this out since we know the setup now.

Scum has started the game with the following roles: Roleblocker, 1-shot Strongman, Goon. That outcome means that immediately, they knew the setup was either TTTTXX or TTTXXX (where X stands for an unknwon letter). I.e., there are at most three letters that give town powers.

At start of D3, scum has the following information: There is a 1-shot Doctor and there are Masons. How could that happen?
Masons only happen with M or MMM. But MMM would mean there is no space for other PRs. Since EFHW flipped other PR, it must be M.
So we have TTTMXX.

Now, there are 2 ways to get a 1-shot Doctor: Either DD (giving Doctor + 1-shot Doctor) or E (giving just a 1-shot Doctor). With DD, there would be another PR out there that is a Doctor. With E, the remaining letter could be anything.

Then, e claims Cop (assuming e is town here). A full Cop requires 2 letters: CC (or EEE). But scum already knows there isn't room for that. So e is a 1-shot Cop, which they now know. But then they know the setup: It's TTTMEC (or TTTMEE, which is equivalent). There is no room for another town PR, so after that claim scum knows that all other townies are VTs.

This means that A) at the time after e's claim, scum knew town!Swowl would claim VT B) at the time after e's claim, scum knew he wasn't a full Cop. joth's above narrative says that my decision to push for e's exile was based on not knowing what Swowl would claim and not knowing whether e is a full Cop, but both of these points are proven wrong by the above.

Wouldn't scum have started with Godfather, Roleblocker, and 1-shot Strongman?

Otherwise, I do agree with your setup analysis, that we are at TTTMEC or TTTMEE (which are the same thing here), as long as e is town.

But I don't agree with your conclusion... because e could be scum.  If he fake-claimed guilty on partner (which I know people say is unlikely), then you all know it's actually TTTME, and there's still a possibility for the final letter to be E (another 1-shot doctor, or a real 1-shot cop), C (a real 1-shot cop), D (full doctor), or even B (roleblocker), or another T (VT).  I think it's even possible e is scum and you (faust) are town and were just mistaken, while he, iguana, and their other partner are glad you jumped in hard on e so they didn't have to get as involved in the discussion.

but we mass-claimed. are you suggesting some townie lied about their claim?
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jotheonah

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1906 on: October 08, 2021, 12:55:41 pm »

That's why you killed MiX last night... so you could just trail off the "MiX said many times we should exile math, so we should definitely do it".  Get that misexile, with dead-town-backup-argument so you can be at lylo.

I think we've proven conclusively this game that this basically never works.
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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1907 on: October 08, 2021, 12:56:02 pm »

idk, I'm liking a math exile more and more folks
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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1908 on: October 08, 2021, 01:29:05 pm »

*snip*
So where does that leave us? I think it leaves us at scum!Swowl having planned to go for a Cop fakeclaim, and then after he saw e's claim he decided he had to back out. But that only makes sense if e is town.

Vote: iguana

You said it here.
Here is the thing - Everyone had claimed by the time I had claimed. And now we know that Iguana flipped RB. So in the world where I am skum, where "I got caught", what kept me from just claiming cop after everyone had claimed VT except for the masons?
This:
The other thing is the LaLight kill N1. It has "trying to avoid the Doctor target" written all over it. However... that would only be a concern if scum doesn't have a full Strongman. That means that there are at most three non-T letters in the setup. And we already have

E - EFHW
M - MiX/Didds
E/C - Swowl

There isn't room for another Cop.

How does this not work?

E- EFHW (1 shot Doc)
M - MiX Didds (masons)
CCC - Swowl/E! (Cop + 1Shot Cop)
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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1909 on: October 08, 2021, 01:33:29 pm »

*snip*
So where does that leave us? I think it leaves us at scum!Swowl having planned to go for a Cop fakeclaim, and then after he saw e's claim he decided he had to back out. But that only makes sense if e is town.

Vote: iguana

You said it here.
Here is the thing - Everyone had claimed by the time I had claimed. And now we know that Iguana flipped RB. So in the world where I am skum, where "I got caught", what kept me from just claiming cop after everyone had claimed VT except for the masons?
This:
The other thing is the LaLight kill N1. It has "trying to avoid the Doctor target" written all over it. However... that would only be a concern if scum doesn't have a full Strongman. That means that there are at most three non-T letters in the setup. And we already have

E - EFHW
M - MiX/Didds
E/C - Swowl

There isn't room for another Cop.

How does this not work?

E- EFHW (1 shot Doc)
M - MiX Didds (masons)
CCC - Swowl/E! (Cop + 1Shot Cop)

nvm that doesn't work. No UB single M. Take it back.
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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1910 on: October 08, 2021, 01:35:00 pm »

nono! I take it back again! that does totally work. Had the UB/M thing backwards when I said it didn't work. It would work.

Doesn't matter, still not true. but it could of been.
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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1911 on: October 08, 2021, 01:48:25 pm »

I just read through Swowl and Math's D3.

I felt like swowl immediately believed my claim and jumped onto iguana after me. Which one of the biggest reasons someone might unequivocally believe me is because they knew that iguana was, in fact, scum. They also went through and were one of my most ardent defenders all day, and it is easy to defend a position that you know is true (because you are scum).

It seemed like math was just commenting on stuff that happened for activity and then eventually votes for me. I don't know, didn't really feel genuine town read to me, more of a last ditch hope that people would go ahead and exile me rather than iguana.

I didn't go back to D1/D2 to look at how they interact with each other and if it makes sense that they are partners with iguana, but I think just based on D3 I would lean toward exiling math first then swowl next. Definitely see a narrative for an iguana/math/swowl team.

This is very convenient assumptions.

Swowl believed your claim because he "new that iguana was, in fact, scum".  Or he believed your claim because when a cop finds a scum, we vote the scum out.

Yeah, I would go with explanation #2 (we vote caught scum out) except swowl was the only one to accept the result immediately and without hesitation. faust planted enough seeds of doubt that no one else just accepted it and voted. People got around to it (including faust), but swowl was the only immediate acceptance
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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1912 on: October 08, 2021, 01:50:08 pm »

I do love math defending swowl here.

Feels like scum is just going all out defending partners.
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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1913 on: October 08, 2021, 03:12:40 pm »

This is really interesting to me. I’m not going to weigh in yet, though, because I don’t want to derail any conversation.

I’m gonna be VLA for the long weekend. I’m going wine tasting in CA, so I’ll check in every evening when I’m doing the other checking in stuff but it would well be DAMA. I’m fully back, and for sure sober, on Tuesday.
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faust

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1914 on: October 08, 2021, 04:20:31 pm »

Wouldn't scum have started with Godfather, Roleblocker, and 1-shot Strongman?
Oh, neat, I town-slipped!
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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1915 on: October 08, 2021, 04:21:07 pm »

*snip*
So where does that leave us? I think it leaves us at scum!Swowl having planned to go for a Cop fakeclaim, and then after he saw e's claim he decided he had to back out. But that only makes sense if e is town.

Vote: iguana

You said it here.
Here is the thing - Everyone had claimed by the time I had claimed. And now we know that Iguana flipped RB. So in the world where I am skum, where "I got caught", what kept me from just claiming cop after everyone had claimed VT except for the masons?
This:
The other thing is the LaLight kill N1. It has "trying to avoid the Doctor target" written all over it. However... that would only be a concern if scum doesn't have a full Strongman. That means that there are at most three non-T letters in the setup. And we already have

E - EFHW
M - MiX/Didds
E/C - Swowl

There isn't room for another Cop.

How does this not work?

E- EFHW (1 shot Doc)
M - MiX Didds (masons)
CCC - Swowl/E! (Cop + 1Shot Cop)
emphasis mine
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mathdude

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1916 on: October 08, 2021, 04:22:48 pm »

but we mass-claimed. are you suggesting some townie lied about their claim?

I'm saying if e is actually town, I'd find it more believable if he's actually a full cop who lied to protect himself, than that he's telling the truth.

And when he planned the claim N2, since he is som, those setup options I listed were what they suspected, so there was actually room for e to fake claim.
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faust

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1917 on: October 08, 2021, 04:25:24 pm »

Even if there were potential flaws (below the surface), a bold move like you did, potentially with scum!you and scum!e (or even less bold, but very possible, scum!you and town!e), the whole idea of "I'm not sure that is a good scum move there" is exactly why I feel you might have done it.  People may have said it's not a good idea for scum!you to point it out, and you could just let the conversation go with it.  But since you're now the one that brought it up, it's very much WIFOM.
The is the lamest take of all time, and I am sick of hearing it.

It's just not happening that scum says "oh this is not a good scum move so let's do it as thereby it becomes a good scum move"... okay, I think there is a certain type of player who might do that. But the choice is not "do this thing or don't do it", it's "do this thing or do something better".
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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1918 on: October 08, 2021, 04:27:40 pm »

And when he planned the claim N2, since he is som, those setup options I listed were what they suspected, so there was actually room for e to fake claim.
That's not true actually, because EFHW hadn't flipped at that point, and whether scum had figured out the Masonry is anyone's guess.
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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1919 on: October 08, 2021, 04:51:32 pm »

Yeah, let's just go ahead:

Vote: math
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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1920 on: October 08, 2021, 04:51:56 pm »

The flip that should have happened D1
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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1921 on: October 08, 2021, 04:53:22 pm »

The flip that should have happened D1
You realize that iguana was on that wagon?
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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1922 on: October 08, 2021, 04:54:31 pm »

The flip that should have happened D1
You realize that iguana was on that wagon?

Yeah I actually just went and looked at that. I mean, I could do swowl first

Vote: swowl
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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1923 on: October 08, 2021, 04:54:46 pm »

Vote: swowl
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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1924 on: October 08, 2021, 04:56:43 pm »

we just voting now?
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