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Author Topic: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 5)  (Read 174428 times)

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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1625 on: October 01, 2021, 10:05:34 am »

I think we finish the claims, so go ahead math
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mathdude

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1626 on: October 01, 2021, 10:06:31 am »

e, why iguana instead of me or math or faust?

This question needs to be looked at from 2 different perspectives.

If e is scum, why did he pick iguana instead of me, joth, or faust, as the person to frame?  Was iguana onto him or his team?  Was it more likely that people will believe a guilty on iguana than one of the rest of us?  (I think not - I think it's more likely him faking a guilty on me would make it very easy to exile me today, as many people have already suspected me and I was a viable wagon both D1 and D2).

If e is town, again, why did he pick iguana?  He has explained this fairly extensively, but that seems planned and calculated.  Why focus on what he claims is a single scumread of his from the previous day, rather than picking someone that more people seem suspicious of?  It's almost likely he was wanting to confirm the majority of the group's townread on iguana (in contradiction to his own scumread)... but using a 1-shot cop to confirm a townie, rather than trying to find someone more likely to be scum doesn't seem to be in town's best interests.

If he is town, and he was trying to reconcile many townreads on iguana with his scumread, then he got lucky and we're in a better situation (maybe).  But I don't see a town cop claiming the way he did.  It just doesn't make sense, trying to hide information and lie in his claim.
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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1627 on: October 01, 2021, 10:19:44 am »

The simplest explanation is that e is scum and iguana is town.

Faust’s idea that they’re both scum is an extraordinary claim that requires extraordinary evidence.

There’s obviously no world where they’re both town.

And if e is town and iguana is scum, well it’s not the end of the world. We have a guaranteed scum exile tomorrow, and e was a 1-shot cop anyway.
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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1628 on: October 01, 2021, 10:27:06 am »

The simplest explanation is that e is scum and iguana is town.

Faust’s idea that they’re both scum is an extraordinary claim that requires extraordinary evidence.

There’s obviously no world where they’re both town.

And if e is town and iguana is scum, well it’s not the end of the world. We have a guaranteed scum exile tomorrow, and e was a 1-shot cop anyway.

This is a good summary, although i think all the factors pointed out by math right before this point much more to my being town. My argument is admittedly a terrible one - I played this so poorly I could not be scum - but it is true. No way my scum teammates wouldn't talk me off the ledge from my crazy schemes.

I just ask you to take the risk on town!e playing poorly and exile iguana based on my result
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mathdude

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1629 on: October 01, 2021, 10:29:48 am »

I still have 3 more pages to go through and reply to things... but I'm heading out for work again and want to get these thoughts out here first.

I believe we have to go with e or iguana today.  It's likely 1 of them are scum (not possible 0 of them, otherwise e's claim makes no sense... slightly possibly it's 2, but I'll comment on that at the end).  So if we pick right, we are in a much better situation, and likely have one more mis-exile if we mess up in the next day or two.  If we pick wrong, we are basically in triple lylo.

Option 1:
Let's say we vote out iguana today.  Let's take e's claim at face value, and vote out the "found scum".

(a) If iguana's scum, great, we got one!  But we don't know if it's an iguana/e gambit to get e town-cred or if e is actually the 1-shot cop he claimed.  That's okay though because we get another set of night actions (potentially, if any left) and another day to figure it out, and likely have a mis-exile available still (barring a wrong vig kill or something odd like that).  I'd like to, in this situation, give e town-cred and assume he's correct, and not setting up the gambit for the win... but discussions and future flips would help confirm or deny that.

(b) If iguana's town, then we know e set him up.  We exile e tomorrow, but we're at triple lylo then (and double lylo after exiling e).  Not great, but at least we have a guarantee that e is scum.

Option 2:
Let's say we believe e is scum and determined it's time to make the bold scum move... frame iguana.  We vote out e today instead.

(a) If e is town, then we're in the triple lylo, but we know iguana is obviously scum then, vote him out next day, and are effectively at double lylo.

(b) If e is scum, I think we're in the same situation as 1.(a) above... great we got one, but we don't know if they pulled a gambit (and iguana is also scum), or if e was the only one trying to get a townie exiled with his claim and push for triple lylo.  In this situation, if we flip e as scum, again, I'd be inclined to think iguana is town... I just don't think I can believe that bold of a move would be made this early, when scum is playing a perfect game so far.


I was hoping running through these things would make one option revealed as better than the others.  But it looks like mirror images, unfortunately.  That means we have to go with our guts, and see if we feel this move is more likely town!e or scum!e.

I haven't decided yet.  I'm leaning toward scum!e, just based on timing, the vague claim, and a few other little things.  But I'm not putting a vote there yet.

PPE: 2
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mathdude

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1630 on: October 01, 2021, 10:31:31 am »

The simplest explanation is that e is scum and iguana is town.

Faust’s idea that they’re both scum is an extraordinary claim that requires extraordinary evidence.

There’s obviously no world where they’re both town.

And if e is town and iguana is scum, well it’s not the end of the world. We have a guaranteed scum exile tomorrow, and e was a 1-shot cop anyway.

I read this and thought... "oh, that breaks the mirror/tie between the two options" - e was 1-shot cop, so he's practically VT now anyway.  If iguana might still have a role, it's better to keep him around.

Then I realized, I believe iguana also claimed VT (in the 3 pages I haven't gotten back to rereading yet... and I'm late for heading to work, so I can't go look right now).  So again, we're no better off one way or the other, randomly/statistically.
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faust

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1631 on: October 01, 2021, 11:26:25 am »

I could definitely see faust trying something like this... I'm not sure I know iguana or e well enough to say about them.
I feel like people seriously misunderstand my scum game. I'm not about big wacky plans that might just work out. I shoot down such plans when my partners express them. I like to keep my options open as much as possible, and when I do follow a plan, I always try to have enough plausible deniability so that I can switch gears if I feel that is necessary. The plan proposed above... is none of that.
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iguanaiguana

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1632 on: October 01, 2021, 12:03:49 pm »

Anyway, I'm going to bed. Hopefully we move forward with this in some meaningful way tomorrow. I'm ready for anything at this point and I'm not letting Ahab get a free scum double LyLo out of a bogus fake claim.

It's only double lylo because iguana knows he is a guaranteed exile tomorrow after my flip if I do get exiled today

No, you are a guaranteed exile tomorrow if they exile me today.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

iguanaiguana

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1633 on: October 01, 2021, 12:12:59 pm »

The simplest explanation is that e is scum and iguana is town.

Faust’s idea that they’re both scum is an extraordinary claim that requires extraordinary evidence.

There’s obviously no world where they’re both town.

And if e is town and iguana is scum, well it’s not the end of the world. We have a guaranteed scum exile tomorrow, and e was a 1-shot cop anyway.

This is a good summary, although i think all the factors pointed out by math right before this point much more to my being town. My argument is admittedly a terrible one - I played this so poorly I could not be scum - but it is true. No way my scum teammates wouldn't talk me off the ledge from my crazy schemes.

I just ask you to take the risk on town!e playing poorly and exile iguana based on my result

You are acting like scum have no individual autonomy and that is not true. You may be on a team, but you're still one person on the other side of the screen typing out the words.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

MiX

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1634 on: October 01, 2021, 12:30:22 pm »

The simplest explanation is that e is scum and iguana is town.

Faust’s idea that they’re both scum is an extraordinary claim that requires extraordinary evidence.

There’s obviously no world where they’re both town.

And if e is town and iguana is scum, well it’s not the end of the world. We have a guaranteed scum exile tomorrow, and e was a 1-shot cop anyway.

This is a good summary, although i think all the factors pointed out by math right before this point much more to my being town. My argument is admittedly a terrible one - I played this so poorly I could not be scum - but it is true. No way my scum teammates wouldn't talk me off the ledge from my crazy schemes.

I just ask you to take the risk on town!e playing poorly and exile iguana based on my result

This argument almost works. Sucks that math's scum.
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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1635 on: October 01, 2021, 12:32:09 pm »

This day won't go anywhere until Swowl confirms faust's suspicions. And math should claim before Swowl. So, math, can you claim?
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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1636 on: October 01, 2021, 12:41:27 pm »

The simplest explanation is that e is scum and iguana is town.

Faust’s idea that they’re both scum is an extraordinary claim that requires extraordinary evidence.

There’s obviously no world where they’re both town.

And if e is town and iguana is scum, well it’s not the end of the world. We have a guaranteed scum exile tomorrow, and e was a 1-shot cop anyway.

This is a good summary, although i think all the factors pointed out by math right before this point much more to my being town. My argument is admittedly a terrible one - I played this so poorly I could not be scum - but it is true. No way my scum teammates wouldn't talk me off the ledge from my crazy schemes.

I just ask you to take the risk on town!e playing poorly and exile iguana based on my result

This argument almost works. Sucks that math's scum.

I don't follow. Math could totally be scum. Not sure what the correlation is here
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MiX

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1637 on: October 01, 2021, 12:48:04 pm »

The simplest explanation is that e is scum and iguana is town.

Faust’s idea that they’re both scum is an extraordinary claim that requires extraordinary evidence.

There’s obviously no world where they’re both town.

And if e is town and iguana is scum, well it’s not the end of the world. We have a guaranteed scum exile tomorrow, and e was a 1-shot cop anyway.

This is a good summary, although i think all the factors pointed out by math right before this point much more to my being town. My argument is admittedly a terrible one - I played this so poorly I could not be scum - but it is true. No way my scum teammates wouldn't talk me off the ledge from my crazy schemes.

I just ask you to take the risk on town!e playing poorly and exile iguana based on my result

This argument almost works. Sucks that math's scum.

I don't follow. Math could totally be scum. Not sure what the correlation is here

It can't be a misplay for you not to cop math if you're both scum.
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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1638 on: October 01, 2021, 01:24:42 pm »

So 2.7's EoD2 play is actually very scummy.

Here is 2.7's last vote of the day:

The main reason I think WCD is scummy is how she has maintained her scum read on EFHW. Opens up with a casual EFHW vote, then builds on it, explains why it makes sense this game, etc., etc.  But then, when Joth votes for EFHW, WCD asks for additional rationale.

vote:  EFHW

Why’s that?

Why is that? Why would town who has spent the majority of their day thinking about how EFHW is scum this game need EXTRA reasons to vote for EFHW. Or question why other people have "seen the light" and joined the EFHW wagon. It just feels....off.

Then D2 there is this:

Didds, what happened to your scumread on EFHW?

Its still there, but I am trying to be fair to her...I think I find her scummy because she is cagey. I am so open that I grapple with close to the vest folks. But, she was one of the few people trying to get an exile off at the EOD, and she was so willing to do it that I don't know that it was scummy.  Her wagon was 4 yesterday and never got an higher so I don't think there is enough town will to make that happen today. So, I have decided to just wait and see on her. Same with Joth.

This feels extremely scummy to me. More specifically, it feels like scum who had moved on from her fake scum read on EFHW but then when reminded about it kept it alive, because you never know when you need to get that mis-exile in. Basically, I don't buy WCD's read on EFHW as being a genuine town reading another player as scum.

vote: WCD

So 2.7 is getting ready to frame WCD here pushing the WCD case which led to the CFD@WCD. Looking at 2.7's EoD, I'm actually realizing that the scum team likely did not solve the WCD is a mason idea overnight. Rather, 2.7 was working on building a case that WCD is scum, and the EFHW kill was meant to make her look scummier by proving that her tunnel on EFHW was wrong.

So the plan was most likely to get a fake result on me today, get me exiled, then go for WCD as the final easy misexile at the double-LyLo that would result out of my misexile --> e's correct exile --> final day misexile WCD as the 'scummy' player. This indicates that the scum team did not have a second easy misexile that they felt they could easily push through. Or at the very least that 2.7 was overconfident about his ability to get a free exile out of me with a result, which makes sense given his own meta of overestimating himself.

vote: faust

Hmmm

2.5 hours to go and gkrieg is acting like wants to be exiled.

At least, not joining a viable alternative

This is 2.7's last post of the day, where he hedges of gkrieg and sort of softly indicates that he would support the gkrieg exile without actually committing to it. So this is just the classic scum tactic of wanting a town exile to go through, but trying to make sure that there are as many townies on the exile wagon as possible. Note that he hung back as the masons deliberated about whether or not to hammer gkrieg. My assumption is that he would have been able to come in and vote for gkrieg if he felt there wasn't enough town support for the exile in order to make sure that the misexile went through and the tide turned last minute toward one of his partners.

TLDR 2.7 spent the end of day 2 pushing the WCD exile while hanging around to be ready to support the gkrieg exile if needed.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1639 on: October 01, 2021, 01:28:17 pm »

So iguana, that last post feels like you believe you know who my alleged partners are.

Who are they?
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iguanaiguana

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1640 on: October 01, 2021, 01:28:31 pm »

It's also very clear that 2.7's top 'scumread' at the end of the day was WCD. So if he's town, why not cop your top scum read on WCD?

What makes more sense is that 2.7 didn't want to do a false guilty of WCD EITHER because he felt she would be an easy misexile for LyLo that he needed to keep around OR because the team had figured out that MiX/Didds were masons overnight and he knew that a false guilty on her would lead to a CC and his exile.

So whether 2.7 had figured out masons ahead of time or not, it makes more sense as scum that he would choose me as the cop target and not his actual stated top scum read.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

MiX

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1641 on: October 01, 2021, 01:30:03 pm »

It's also very clear that 2.7's top 'scumread' at the end of the day was WCD. So if he's town, why not cop your top scum read on WCD?

What makes more sense is that 2.7 didn't want to do a false guilty of WCD EITHER because he felt she would be an easy misexile for LyLo that he needed to keep around OR because the team had figured out that MiX/Didds were masons overnight and he knew that a false guilty on her would lead to a CC and his exile.

So whether 2.7 had figured out masons ahead of time or not, it makes more sense as scum that he would choose me as the cop target and not his actual stated top scum read.

He found out me and Didds were masons when faust claimed that for us.
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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1642 on: October 01, 2021, 01:36:58 pm »

So iguana, that last post feels like you believe you know who my alleged partners are.

Who are they?

I really don't. It's frustrating. At first I was thinking Jim/Joth/2.7 because of the wrong meta analysis the team did in terms of picking on me. But since then I've realized it may have actually been your team's idea to pick on a hard exile because you didn't feel you could get two easy exiles through. So that points at scummy looking players.

I don't think it can be Joth/Math/2.7 because both of your partners wouldn't be voting/considering voting for you right now (unless Math is just toying with me and ultimately plans to vote me, in which case Math looks like a partner and that is sort of a mindfuck on how I've been reading this game.)

Swowl also looks like a very likely partner at this point with how quickly he jumped to the conclusion that 2.7 was telling the truth and I was lying. And with Swowl's lack of activity so far this game, that makes more sense that he would just let 2.7 take the reigns on a gambit like this.

Jim also looks like a partner with his hedging, and that would make more sense out of D1 if Jim is scum and Math is town where you came in to rescue Jim by casting shade on Math and starting up the D1 Math wagon. But IDK about Jim yet and where he votes here will obviously be illuminating.

I still think Faust could be a partner with his super weird theories. It looks like he's going hard for getting the misexile on me through no matter what happens with you and that is super scummy IMO. Faust on the team also makes sense with the idea that the team solved MiX/WCD are masons overnight and therefore knew that they needed a false guilty to stay ahead of PoE. 

All that being said, I really need to go back and reread everyone I just listed and look for partner interactions.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1643 on: October 01, 2021, 01:40:13 pm »

It's also scummy that 2.7 up to this point hasn't really been making a case on me, and just responding to the case on him. Now that I've said it of course he will probably try, but good luck finding my partners 2.7, I don't have any!
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1644 on: October 01, 2021, 01:42:04 pm »

It's also very clear that 2.7's top 'scumread' at the end of the day was WCD. So if he's town, why not cop your top scum read on WCD?

What makes more sense is that 2.7 didn't want to do a false guilty of WCD EITHER because he felt she would be an easy misexile for LyLo that he needed to keep around OR because the team had figured out that MiX/Didds were masons overnight and he knew that a false guilty on her would lead to a CC and his exile.

So whether 2.7 had figured out masons ahead of time or not, it makes more sense as scum that he would choose me as the cop target and not his actual stated top scum read.

He found out me and Didds were masons when faust claimed that for us.

Yeah unless he's scum (possibly with faust) and he just pretended to find that out because he wouldn't have wanted to tip off that he knew that. But with the EFHW kill I think it is more likely that 2.7 was trying to frame WCD for LyLo and didn't know about masons.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1645 on: October 01, 2021, 01:42:17 pm »

It's also very clear that 2.7's top 'scumread' at the end of the day was WCD. So if he's town, why not cop your top scum read on WCD?

What makes more sense is that 2.7 didn't want to do a false guilty of WCD EITHER because he felt she would be an easy misexile for LyLo that he needed to keep around OR because the team had figured out that MiX/Didds were masons overnight and he knew that a false guilty on her would lead to a CC and his exile.

So whether 2.7 had figured out masons ahead of time or not, it makes more sense as scum that he would choose me as the cop target and not his actual stated top scum read.

He found out me and Didds were masons when faust claimed that for us.

Speaking of this, why does town claim masons for you?
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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1646 on: October 01, 2021, 01:51:12 pm »

It's also very clear that 2.7's top 'scumread' at the end of the day was WCD. So if he's town, why not cop your top scum read on WCD?

What makes more sense is that 2.7 didn't want to do a false guilty of WCD EITHER because he felt she would be an easy misexile for LyLo that he needed to keep around OR because the team had figured out that MiX/Didds were masons overnight and he knew that a false guilty on her would lead to a CC and his exile.

So whether 2.7 had figured out masons ahead of time or not, it makes more sense as scum that he would choose me as the cop target and not his actual stated top scum read.

He found out me and Didds were masons when faust claimed that for us.

Speaking of this, why does town claim masons for you?

Cause faust had solved the game and he was itching to tell us the solve.
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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1647 on: October 01, 2021, 01:55:22 pm »

Really liking all of the gkrieg posts, they feel very town.
-snip-

Okay, just found this. It is totally scummy that 2.7 goes from "gkrieg feels very town" to his weak noncommittal final comment on gkrieg that is setting him up to be able to vote gkrieg if necessary.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1648 on: October 01, 2021, 01:56:36 pm »

It's also very clear that 2.7's top 'scumread' at the end of the day was WCD. So if he's town, why not cop your top scum read on WCD?

What makes more sense is that 2.7 didn't want to do a false guilty of WCD EITHER because he felt she would be an easy misexile for LyLo that he needed to keep around OR because the team had figured out that MiX/Didds were masons overnight and he knew that a false guilty on her would lead to a CC and his exile.

So whether 2.7 had figured out masons ahead of time or not, it makes more sense as scum that he would choose me as the cop target and not his actual stated top scum read.

He found out me and Didds were masons when faust claimed that for us.

Speaking of this, why does town claim masons for you?

Cause faust had solved the game and he was itching to tell us the solve.

Yeah, I will give you that.

I was going for he was scum who had figured out the game and was excited to get town cred.

We should finish the mass claim at this point for sure, but if all remaining claims are VT scum knew it was either TTT or TTTT.

That is why faust figured out it was masons. He had found a 1-shot doc with the NK.
He had found a 1-shot cop with my claim.
He was looking for one more letter, and figured it out.
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1649 on: October 01, 2021, 01:59:28 pm »

Really liking all of the gkrieg posts, they feel very town.
-snip-

Okay, just found this. It is totally scummy that 2.7 goes from "gkrieg feels very town" to his weak noncommittal final comment on gkrieg that is setting him up to be able to vote gkrieg if necessary.

Yes, I would have hammered gkrieg for an exile. Did I want to? No.

Was gkrieg flailing around looking for random last minute exiles that did him no good? Yes.

Did I want him to stop that and vote Didds? Yes.

Grasping at straws here iguana.
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.
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