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Author Topic: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia  (Read 44813 times)

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iguanaiguana

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #700 on: September 01, 2021, 12:39:52 pm »

Okay guys, It's time for Iguana's totally convoluted theory: GPD (Galzria, Pubby, Dylan32). (names arranged for maximum hilarious likeness to GID obvs  8)

First of all, this is some pretty hypothetical stuff coming right here.

IF the team is GPD, I'm in trouble tonight. It would mean all my reads are correct, and everyone town reads me. That would make me a huge liability for the scum team. Also, IF the team is GPD, MiX's reads are kind of lousy this game. Just sayin'. Right now MiX is not exactly projecting belief in GPD. Those two things would put me at a real risk of dying tonight. THEREFORE, I need to share some things with y'all now on the chance that I won't be able to do it later because I'll be dead.

So, if we exile Dylan today and he flips scum, PLEASE look at pubby and Galzria. Here's a few reasons why:

So I hadn't paid attention to the shorter deadlines, so realizing it's tomorrow, I'll Vote: Glooble for now. I don't have any strong scumreads yet, but there's actually been more good conversations that will be useful for scumhunting after a flip or two than I remember in recent RMM D1s (thanks to the relative lack of human/cylon/military/civilian/forwards-backwards-timeline oriented conversations lol).

Right now I think iguana is town, and Awaclus and faust are somewhat towny. I would be willing to exile basically any one of {Glooble, WCD, Swowl, e, EFHW}.

ppe 2

Dylan puts a couple towns on his town list, lists a bunch of towns as would exile, and totally ignores Pubby/Galz and a few others. Note that the only other people he ignores are MiX (obvs), Mathdude, and me. So the ommission of Galz and Pubby here is a pretty big chunk of the omitted players.

After reading both e and galz, I just think e is more likely to flip scum than galz. Also, galz, as e admitted, had really good points countering the case.

Vote: e

L-1
-snip-

Dylan comes back after some lurking and wants an e exile a lot more than a Galz exile. Note that several of his next posts argue pretty hard for the e exile... Is that something scum does in a T v T situation? (Again, I don't know for sure that Dylan is scum... this is my hypothetical contribution to D3 in case I die).

Vote Count 1.?.MiX

Galzria (6): faust, WestCoastDidds, EFHW, Awaclus, Glooble, iguanaiguana
2.71828.... (3): Swowl, mathdude, Dylan32
iguanaiguana (1): pubby
Glooble (1): Galzria

No exile (2): 2.71828...., MiX

This wagon is really really important!!!!!! faust, WCD and EFHW are the older votes on Galz. Then, after e's claim... a surge of new votes for Galz comes in. Awaclus is TOWN! Iguanaiguana is TOWN! Glooble is the only unknown here. In sum... I find it highly unlikely that both Galz and Glooble can be town... especially if Dylan flips scum. PLEASE don't forget this!!!

After Galz goes L-1, Dylan comes and says this:

Not necessarily intent right now, but I'm willing to hammer galz if I am not going to convince anyone to come back onto the e wagon.

If Dylan is scum, that's an indication that Galz is a partner if I've ever seen one. Dylan did not want the Galz exile... but didn't want to be off wagon if it was going to happen.

Iguana reads as town to me. His defense against Pubby's post sounded more like a townie's defense, and a lot of my thoughts (not all, but a lot) have been mirrored in things they've said before I manage to get on and catch up, so that seems townie to me. I agree that the GID theory is probably wrong on the whole, but I remember being in some games as town where I thought I had figured out the scum team really early and it can be hard to shake that thought, so I don't necessarily think Pubby is scum for trying to prove his case.

D2 now... and this really looks like a partner indication to pubby. 
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

iguanaiguana

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #701 on: September 01, 2021, 12:41:52 pm »

Obviously... if we exile Dylan and he flips town... time to re-evaluate everything. That would be fun, actually.

Also, if we exile Dylan... scum flip... then we exile Galz or Pubby for a town flip... I would be looking at mathdude or Swowl for the last scums.

Okay, now I'm basically done for the day.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

EFHW

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #702 on: September 01, 2021, 12:55:37 pm »

Galzria doesn't look great - weird case on Didds, odd claim. This is the first I remember Galz saying he doesn't shoot as vig. Does anyone remember that from other games? But I don't get scum vibes.
What is your actual read on Galzria? This all seems contradictory.

I'm saying that even though a couple things don't look great on the surface, I don't actually get a scum vibe from him. And I don't have a scum!narrative that fits his play.
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jotheonah

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #703 on: September 01, 2021, 01:21:30 pm »


Dorothy, the Scarecrow, the Tin Man and Toto come to the woods.

"I think there's a Lion around here who can help us," says the Scarecrow.

"Oh didn't you hear? He was exiled by Glinda after the Munchkins suspected him of witchcraft! We'll just have to get by with the three of us," says the Tin Man.

"Woof woof!" says Toto.

"Alright, alright, the four of us," the Tin Man corrects.

--

Meanwhile, Glinda arrives in the Emerald City and stands before Oz, the great and powerful, a monstrous green face surrounded by light and flames.

"Someone has murdered my doorman!" the Wizard rages. "We must discover who it is! Look under every rock and behind every curtain!"

"Including this curtain here?" asks Glinda.

"NO!" Oz bellows. "Pay no attention to that curtain!"



Vote Count 2.3

Dylan32 (4): faust, Glooble, WestCoastDidds, iguanaiguana (L-2)
pubby (1): EFHW
WestCoastDidds (1): pubby
EFHW (1): MiX
Mathdude (1): Swowl

Not voting (4): Dylan32, Galzria, mathdude

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to exile. Day 2 ends Thursday, September 2 at 10:00 pm forum time. That's in about 33 hours.
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"I know old meta, and joth is useless day 1 but awesome town day 3 and on." --Teproc

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Dylan32

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #704 on: September 01, 2021, 01:52:41 pm »

Sorry, work has had me busier this week than I expected. I will just say, Iíve been scum or not town quite a bit recently. Compare this game to any of those and see if itís the same. If you want to exile me for lurking, I literally canít argue with the logicÖ but if youíre trying to say Iím playing like scum, Iím better at faking scum hunting than actually doing it, hence my much, much better record in scum games than town games. Iíll try to spend some time reading tonight though, because I definitely havenít been present enough.
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Forum Mafia Record - Wins: 14 - NM9, M97, RMM41, M99, M102, M104, M119, M126, RMM56, M133, M134, RMM58, RMM59, RMM61, RMM60; Losses 15 - RMM37, M89, M94, M95, M96, M100, RMM47 M109, M110, M120, M127, M129, M131, M132, M136; MVPs: 1 - NM9

Galzria

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #705 on: September 01, 2021, 02:03:00 pm »

vote: Glooble.

My vote isnít doing anything not being placed, and I think Glooble is scum. Will post reasons later today.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #706 on: September 01, 2021, 02:05:43 pm »

Also want to take a look at EFHW, who it feels like nobody is aware is even playing (donít mean anything by that Efoo - just that nobody seems to have any interactions with you or reads on you).
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #707 on: September 01, 2021, 02:07:29 pm »

Does anyone not think iguana is town?

Iím very much not convinced iguana is town - but I may be the only one.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

EFHW

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #708 on: September 01, 2021, 02:14:03 pm »

Glooble Day 1:

I've looked back at my notes on Glooble and I see a lot of defensiveness and a couple things that are just odd. The first odd thing was "reasons" on pubby. This probably cemented him in a defensive position because so many people questioned it. Here is one of the times he refused:

The reasons were admittedly very flimsy, but its not pro-town to keep pushing me for them.

*breathe in breathe out*

fine. not going to gain anything out of this anyways.

to your point, whatever reasons you could possibly have cannot possibly carry any weight, so I will stop.

Wanna make it clear I am stopping NOT because it is not pro town to push you one this... completely 100% disagree with that.
I find it very odd that you would feel the need to say "I have reasons I don't want to share" and then down the road be like "oh they are so flimsy". I feel like you would normally open with "I have a gut read" or just a simply answer at first saying the reasons were a stretch or something.

I think it's pretty obvious that if a person says they have reasons and there is no extant public information to possibly explain those reasons, then the reasons must be based on information that is not public, and therefore to continue asking for them is rolefishing.

He keeps saying he'd rather not share his reasons, but then he does a 180 at 308 and confesses he doesn't actually remember what the reasons were. That doesn't make sense to me. Did he not remember all along and tried to fake it? After all that pressure and deciding not to talk, and emphatically refusing, which must have taken some review of reasons, then he doesn't remember? So there's a real inconsistency there that could reflect trying to participate as scum.

The other odd thing is his comment that he doesn't keep his own role in mind when he is considering things like mass claims (emphasis added):

One might counter this by saying "well town should just answer without regard for their role". Which is saying, town should be disingenuous and do the thing that scum is also trying to do. This causes town to behave in a scum-like manner and thus muddies the water for scumhunting.

I don't personally think my opinion on a particular strategy is affected in anyway whatsoever by my current role. I would always think about it in the context of any roles that could theoretically be in the game, and I would expect the same of any town player. I don't see how that's disingenuous.
Seems strange not to take knowledge into account. You could have a role that says "if you target the Tracker, town wins". Surely that would influence your opinion on claiming. That is a ridiculously extreme example, but any role has a preference on knowing/not knowing roles to a lesser extent. If you don't take into account the knowledge that you have then you're not playing optimally.

I disagree. Even if I know that my own role benefits from or suffers from a mass claim, I don't know how scum are going to benefit or how that info might hurt other townies. I think considering your own role without thinking about what other roles might be in the game isn't playing optimally.

But whatever. We play the game differently, that's fine. You've convinced me that your objection wasn't alignment-indicative.

I feel like he went to far in that first statement, so he has to back up from it later, without acknowledging that he is changing to a very different position from where he started. So another awkwardness in posting leading to an inconsistency.

In 251, he says he is never useful Day 1 because he can't form reads. This is a pet peeve of mine. We're all useless that way. Is he asking for a Day 1 pass? Because then we all should get one. Probably NAI, except that it does contribute to the overall feeling of defensiveness.

He doesn't really participate in the EOD discussion, like most of us unfortunately (myself included, sorry!).

I agreed with him that Dylan's accusation of iguana having more information than he should was unwarranted. I also agreed that there was nothing preventing Didds from posting even if the massclaim argument went on for too long.

I'll look at Day 2 now.
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Glooble

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #709 on: September 01, 2021, 02:19:39 pm »

Ok, I admit it.

I no longer have any idea why I said the word reasons.

That fact is, I wasn't thinking that much about it. Which is another thing that's townie, because as scum I consider my words a lot more carefully.

EFHW, what I said was I have no idea why I said the word reasons. That is emphatically not the same thing as not remembering what my reasons were. I meant I don't know what my reasons were for saying "because reasons" rather than just saying nothing.

I never said I didn't remember my reasons.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #710 on: September 01, 2021, 02:20:39 pm »

Also, the fact that you said "in 308" rather than quoting that post just now is kinda scummy. Because if you'd quoted it I think it would be obvious that it wasn't an inconsistency. So framing it that way is scummy.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #711 on: September 01, 2021, 02:22:01 pm »

As for your second "inconsistency" that's also simply not true. The first statement was about me, the second was about faust. There's no contradiction there.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #712 on: September 01, 2021, 02:33:10 pm »

Here's the quote. I read this as you didn't remember why you said reasons as in you didn't remember your reasons. You can see why that would give me pause.

Ok, I admit it.

I no longer have any idea why I said the word reasons.

That fact is, I wasn't thinking that much about it. Which is another thing that's townie, because as scum I consider my words a lot more carefully.

I'm glad you've explained this, because I got really confused just now when I saw that you do remember the reasons!
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EFHW

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #713 on: September 01, 2021, 02:40:08 pm »

As for your second "inconsistency" that's also simply not true. The first statement was about me, the second was about faust. There's no contradiction there.

I still feel there is a contradiction. You said "I don't personally think my opinion on a particular strategy is affected in anyway whatsoever by my current role." Then in talking to faust you restated your position as "I think considering your own role without thinking about what other roles might be in the game isn't playing optimally."

These are not the same things. You changed the argument from "don't think about your own role" to "if you do think about your own role, make sure you think about other people's roles, too." faust had been arguing against the categorical statement you made first. He never said consider only your own role.
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Glooble

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #714 on: September 01, 2021, 02:58:28 pm »

I think in the context of the discussion we were having its basically the same thing, but also why would that sort of inconsistency make me more likely to be scum? Scum are going to be inconsistent when talking about the specific game they are playing because they are having to keep track of a lie, but when talking in a more general sense I expect scum to be more consistent, since people watch their words more carefully as scum.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #715 on: September 01, 2021, 04:02:11 pm »

I re-read Dylan and I'm less sure he's the right exile for today. Still think he could be scum, but I think I like pubby better.

vote: pubby

MiX, why are you on EFHW again?
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #716 on: September 01, 2021, 04:09:04 pm »

Also want to take a look at EFHW, who it feels like nobody is aware is even playing (donít mean anything by that Efoo - just that nobody seems to have any interactions with you or reads on you).

Please do! I had the same feeling.
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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #717 on: September 01, 2021, 04:13:30 pm »

As for your second "inconsistency" that's also simply not true. The first statement was about me, the second was about faust. There's no contradiction there.

I still feel there is a contradiction. You said "I don't personally think my opinion on a particular strategy is affected in anyway whatsoever by my current role." Then in talking to faust you restated your position as "I think considering your own role without thinking about what other roles might be in the game isn't playing optimally."

These are not the same things. You changed the argument from "don't think about your own role" to "if you do think about your own role, make sure you think about other people's roles, too." faust had been arguing against the categorical statement you made first. He never said consider only your own role.

This is incredibly consistent if you're not trying to use it to shade Glooble. One says what Glooble does, the other says what Glooble thinks.
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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #718 on: September 01, 2021, 06:58:37 pm »

I think in the context of the discussion we were having its basically the same thing, but also why would that sort of inconsistency make me more likely to be scum? Scum are going to be inconsistent when talking about the specific game they are playing because they are having to keep track of a lie, but when talking in a more general sense I expect scum to be more consistent, since people watch their words more carefully as scum.

The pattern did depend on you being off-balance in posting as scum. So I will abandon the case. But I do think you changed your argument there without acknowledging it.
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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #719 on: September 01, 2021, 06:59:22 pm »

As for your second "inconsistency" that's also simply not true. The first statement was about me, the second was about faust. There's no contradiction there.

I still feel there is a contradiction. You said "I don't personally think my opinion on a particular strategy is affected in anyway whatsoever by my current role." Then in talking to faust you restated your position as "I think considering your own role without thinking about what other roles might be in the game isn't playing optimally."

These are not the same things. You changed the argument from "don't think about your own role" to "if you do think about your own role, make sure you think about other people's roles, too." faust had been arguing against the categorical statement you made first. He never said consider only your own role.

This is incredibly consistent if you're not trying to use it to shade Glooble. One says what Glooble does, the other says what Glooble thinks.
I disagree, but it doesn't matter much right now.
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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #720 on: September 01, 2021, 07:00:54 pm »


One might counter this by saying "well town should just answer without regard for their role". Which is saying, town should be disingenuous and do the thing that scum is also trying to do. This causes town to behave in a scum-like manner and thus muddies the water for scumhunting.

I don't personally think my opinion on a particular strategy is affected in anyway whatsoever by my current role. I would always think about it in the context of any roles that could theoretically be in the game, and I would expect the same of any town player. I don't see how that's disingenuous.
Seems strange not to take knowledge into account. You could have a role that says "if you target the Tracker, town wins". Surely that would influence your opinion on claiming. That is a ridiculously extreme example, but any role has a preference on knowing/not knowing roles to a lesser extent. If you don't take into account the knowledge that you have then you're not playing optimally.

I disagree. Even if I know that my own role benefits from or suffers from a mass claim, I don't know how scum are going to benefit or how that info might hurt other townies. I think considering your own role without thinking about what other roles might be in the game isn't playing optimally.

But whatever. We play the game differently, that's fine. You've convinced me that your objection wasn't alignment-indicative.

Does this help clarify that Glooble's stance didn't change, EFHW?
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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #721 on: September 01, 2021, 07:08:05 pm »

Also want to take a look at EFHW, who it feels like nobody is aware is even playing (donít mean anything by that Efoo - just that nobody seems to have any interactions with you or reads on you).

I've noticed that, too. Glooble did the whole history of votes for e and left out mine. But unobtrusiveness can come in handy. More so as scum, but still.
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iguanaiguana

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #722 on: September 01, 2021, 08:06:06 pm »

I came into D2 with EFHW as my top scum read, then pubby did his whole thing, and EFHW's response to it made a lot of sense to me and wasn't what I was expecting scum EFHW would say.

So things changed.

I'd say she'd be someone to look at for sure if Dylan and/or pubby flip town
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #723 on: September 01, 2021, 08:10:38 pm »


Does this help clarify that Glooble's stance didn't change, EFHW?

No. He said not affected in any way whatsoever by his current role. That's an extreme statement. faust challenges him on it, and his answer to faust suggests he thinks faust was saying only think about your own role, which of course faust wasn't saying. It's at that point he changes his position to match what faust was actually already saying, but as if faust had been saying something else.
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EFHW

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #724 on: September 01, 2021, 08:18:10 pm »

MiX, did you ever say what you thought was towny about mathdude?
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