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Author Topic: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia  (Read 98104 times)

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faust

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #350 on: August 26, 2021, 04:43:55 am »

It's not that different from other games; I think you should always be wary of wagons that your townreads oppose unless you have a good reason to think otherwise.

Your townreads, sure. But the IC, unlike your townreads, has less information than anyone else, which is why your own reads are by default better than theirs unless there's a good reason to think otherwise.
Just because they know the alignment of 1 fewer players doesn't mean it's sensible to completely disregard their reads. The less-informedness of their reads compared to your townreads is made up for by the plus in trustworthiness; your townreads could still be scum, after all.
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Awaclus

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #351 on: August 26, 2021, 04:52:39 am »

It's not that different from other games; I think you should always be wary of wagons that your townreads oppose unless you have a good reason to think otherwise.

Your townreads, sure. But the IC, unlike your townreads, has less information than anyone else, which is why your own reads are by default better than theirs unless there's a good reason to think otherwise.
Just because they know the alignment of 1 fewer players doesn't mean it's sensible to completely disregard their reads. The less-informedness of their reads compared to your townreads is made up for by the plus in trustworthiness; your townreads could still be scum, after all.

Well, obviously you shouldn't just sheep your townreads either. But even if they're scum contrary to your reads, their reads are worth paying more attention to than the IC's.
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MiX

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #352 on: August 26, 2021, 06:18:27 am »

What a conversation. Faust is town from it.

I haven't even given you guys a counterwagon and you're already talking about not following me on principle.

For Didds to flip scum when I'm against it, all of town has to agree on who's scum D1. I don't think we're at that point with Didds.

But it's not like I'm going to oppose the Didds wagon aggressively. Do whatever. I think I pushed town!Glooble all day and the other wagon options don't intetest me anyway.
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MiX

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #353 on: August 26, 2021, 06:31:49 am »

Vote: e

Vote Count 1.3.MiX.2

WestCoastDidds (4): Galzria, iguanaiguana, Glooble, EFHW
2.71828.... (3): Swowl, Awaclus, MiX
Glooble (1): Dylan32
iguanaiguana (1): pubby
EFHW (1): 2.71828....
faust (1): mathdude
Galzria (1): faust

Not voting (1): WestCoastDidds

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to exile. Day 1 ends at 7 pm on Thursday, forum time (in 12:30 hours).
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Glooble

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #354 on: August 26, 2021, 06:35:17 am »

vote: e

I think I like it slightly better than Didds.

Unfortunately I won't be around at deadline, but I can be on a little bit before.
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MiX

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #355 on: August 26, 2021, 06:48:58 am »

If exiling e in every game is obviously a bad idea (which it is), then it seems equally obvious that exiling e is bad in general.

Exiling e in every game is not obviously a bad idea. It's possible that he's scum in every game.

Exiling e in every game is obviously a bad idea. It's just that faust's extrapolation from "every day" to "every game" significantly changes the argument/statement, so it can't disprove what you said. But meh, it's not like the way you argue is alignment indicative.

It's not that different from other games; I think you should always be wary of wagons that your townreads oppose unless you have a good reason to think otherwise.

Your townreads, sure. But the IC, unlike your townreads, has less information than anyone else, which is why your own reads are by default better than theirs unless there's a good reason to think otherwise.
Just because they know the alignment of 1 fewer players doesn't mean it's sensible to completely disregard their reads. The less-informedness of their reads compared to your townreads is made up for by the plus in trustworthiness; your townreads could still be scum, after all.

Well, obviously you shouldn't just sheep your townreads either. But even if they're scum contrary to your reads, their reads are worth paying more attention to than the IC's.

You changed arguments here.


Also let it be known I'm vehemently opposed to Galzria's posts, but I can't point to anything specifically that's completely wrong or very scummy.
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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #356 on: August 26, 2021, 07:02:49 am »

Hey, a wagon. Sorry, this week got busy at work and home, haven't kept up like I would have liked
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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #357 on: August 26, 2021, 07:05:31 am »

But going to argue the case against me, it's a day 1 case that is about as good as any other

I will go back and look at a few people as well as WCD (simply because age is the other wagon, not a fan of exiling there) and see what I find.
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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #358 on: August 26, 2021, 07:10:06 am »

In another note, I will not vote Didds just for self preservation
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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #359 on: August 26, 2021, 07:23:30 am »

All right. Read WCD

WCD is solidly town. That wagon is scummy. I will go with an intersection of overreaction to IC!MiX and going after WCD.

Vote: Galzria

Now to read Galzria
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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #360 on: August 26, 2021, 07:53:13 am »

So, really like my Galzria vote after reading him.

- Opens with his joke about MiX being IC
- second post theory talk about the setup
- case on Didds is flimsy at best. In fact, the case is basically that WCD is not overtly aware of a V/LA situation. I would argue the opposite, that not being aware is more likely in town.

Speaking of which, really Galzria is super duper ultra aware. Like, scum level aware. So aware that he thinks everyone else is aware.

Then there are just more posts, the would exile/won't exile list, standard stuff.

But yeah, I like voting for Galzria
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #361 on: August 26, 2021, 08:39:05 am »

This shouldn’t be a choice between Glooble and me. Good gravy, people. Quit doing the scum work for them.
It's reasonably likely that actual scum are doing some of that work.

True enough!
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #362 on: August 26, 2021, 08:51:40 am »

So Galz has moved from going after me directly, to going after me indirectly becauese some widely town read folks and the IC say I’m a bad wagon. It looks to me like all of his content is being generated out of the single desire to get me out. Which is weird, right? His case wasn’t rock solid to begin with and now it’s the focus of the entirety of his day. Very much the like the fake engagement he accuses me of, I think.

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Vote: Galz

The thing I wonder about though is if he’d be this out there if he was scum. I don’t know. But then again, if he is scum and wants me out aiming early and being dogged might be his best strat? Not sure.

I’m also fine with nexile. To Awaclus’ point, not nexile every day, but no exile on D1 because we could learn more tonight than we know now. I like that far better than voting for a null read which other than Galz, is pretty much everyone except my town reads right now.

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Awaclus

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #363 on: August 26, 2021, 09:22:18 am »

You changed arguments here.

No I didn't. See the original argument:

But the IC, unlike your townreads, has less information than anyone else

I was always including scum in the category of "has more information than the IC".
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Awaclus

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #364 on: August 26, 2021, 09:47:08 am »

I’m also fine with nexile. To Awaclus’ point, not nexile every day, but no exile on D1 because we could learn more tonight than we know now.

Couldn't we also learn more N2 than we know D1?
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Awaclus

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #365 on: August 26, 2021, 09:47:23 am »

I mean D2.
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jotheonah

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #366 on: August 26, 2021, 09:49:14 am »

Not too long after embarking on the yellow brick road, Dorothy comes upon a straw man.

"You there," she says, "Which way should we go to find out who dropped that house on that person?"

"You could exile him, or her, or him" the Scarecrow says, pointing at a few different Munchkins and Toto. "Of course, people do no exile."

"Oh, you're not very helpful at all!"

Nonetheless, the Scarecrow hops down off his perch and joins Dorothy and Toto on the road.



Vote Count 1.4

2.71828.... (4): Swowl, Awaclus, MiX, Glooble
Galzria (3): faust, 2.71828...., WestCoastDidds
WestCoastDidds (3): Galzria, iguanaiguana, EFHW
Glooble (1): Dylan32
iguanaiguana (1): pubby
faust (1): mathdude

Not voting (0)

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to exile. Day 1 ends at 7 pm on Thursday, forum time. That's in just over 9 hours.
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faust

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #367 on: August 26, 2021, 09:57:49 am »

Not too long after embarking on the yellow brick road, Dorothy comes upon a straw man.
I appreciate it  :D
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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #368 on: August 26, 2021, 10:01:40 am »

Ok, I see the Didds wagon isn't going anywhere. While I don't share MiX and e's implicit trust, I recognize the Day 1 quality of my case. Didds keeps coming back to no exile. I've given some thought to that option, which often seems appealing on Day 1 when the exile feels random. But even if we misexile, that's not without benefit to town because we get information. After hearing people take positions, we find out what the truth was and this is clarifying and helpful down the line when looking for patterns. Without the Day 1 exile, Day 2 can feel like a repeat of Day 1.

I still haven't reread Glooble. I'll pick a wagon after I do that.

Unvote
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Glooble

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #369 on: August 26, 2021, 10:10:52 am »

For the record, I don't really want a no exile, but Didds advocating for it is extremely NAI.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #370 on: August 26, 2021, 10:57:54 am »

Does anyone else get the impression that flavour texts in vote counts might actually mean something? Is MiX Dorothy? Or maybe Toto?
Also, Vote: e
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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #371 on: August 26, 2021, 10:59:10 am »

... I'll be back in 1 to 2 hours with more thoughts (at lunch when I can take time to quote some of the posts I have thoughts about.
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MiX

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #372 on: August 26, 2021, 11:03:20 am »

Does anyone else get the impression that flavour texts in vote counts might actually mean something? Is MiX Dorothy? Or maybe Toto?
Also, Vote: e

I am Dorothy. It was in the opening post.

I doubt anyone else's flavor will be revealed by joth.
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faust

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #373 on: August 26, 2021, 11:11:41 am »

Don't go voting for e. Galzria is a much better exile.

So are like, a bunch of people. You could start a wagon on pubby, or Dylan or someone.
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MiX

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Re: RMM60: Wizard of Oz Mafia
« Reply #374 on: August 26, 2021, 11:14:47 am »

I think the only people that should be wagoned today are e, Galzria, Didds and Glooble. If anyone else is exiled today and flips town, that will just make D2 really awkward.
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