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Author Topic: BM32: All Dwarves are Bastards Mafia - GAME OVER PERFECT SCUM WIN  (Read 106966 times)

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mathdude

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Re: BM32: All Dwarves are Bastards Mafia - DAY ONE
« Reply #400 on: April 12, 2021, 12:18:36 pm »

I might have communicated unclearly, but I agree with faust. Having a better idea what kinds of roles are present in the game helps both town and scum, because it means everyone can plan their actions better. Currently, it is more likely than not that scum already has that information and town doesn't, which is why it's beneficial to reveal it.

Having a better idea who has those roles, as far as I can tell, is only a negligible benefit to town, whereas it is a considerable benefit to scum. Even though most likely revealing it would just negligibly benefit town because scum already knows, the benefit to town doesn't seem important enough to justify taking the risk.

I'm still not convinced of the numbers.  "Currently it is more likely than not that scum already has that information".  How can you know that?  Do you know how many scum there are?  Do you know that scum is in the group?  Are you scum and in that group?  In a BM game, how can we even guess any numbers?

I may not be able to read many of you guys yet, being fairly new.  But I can play numbers games.  From Didds' perspective, if she's town, and we assume 3 scum out of 12 players this game (which I fully admit could be slightly or completely wrong!)... the remaining 2 in her neighbourhood have (8C2)/(11C2)=28/55 (~50%) chance of both being town.  If there are only 2 scum, I believe that works out to 36/55 (~65%) chance the other two are town.  And if Didds is scum, none of this matters since she already knows enough about the neighbourhood.

So are you still fairly sure that "scum already knows who's in the neighbourhood"?

Why is pubby a better exile?  A "reason" like this is just as helpful as not giving a reason at all.

Jimmmmm is not participating much.  He isn't offering anything useful even when he does show up.  I think he's quite possibly scum.  And even if he is town, he's not helping us and not giving us anything to help town-read him later.

Vote: Jimmmmm
Why do you question a pubby exile, who has done even less than Jimmmmm, and then proceed to call for a lurker exile of Jimmmmmm?

I was not intending it to be "I don't agree with a pubby exile" (that is, questioning the choice).  I meant the question to try and prompt Jimmmmm into actually joining the discussion, rather than saying "I'm here.  I admit I haven't done much.  I'll vote this person without actually giving a reason".  You are right... Jimmmmm has actually been here a bit, so he's one that I could actually ask questions and hope to get an answer from, to help me/others read him (other than the fact that apparently he's sleeping from now until deadline).  A vote just puts extra pressure, especially if he's scum as it could bring out other people who want to defend him.

People I'd be happy to vote for right now: Jimmmmm, Didds, pubby, maybe fang, Bright or EFHW (probably that would be my order of preference).  I know that's a big list.  I really don't know at this point!

I'm not getting town-vibes, per se, from the others.  I don't know you all well enough for that.  But my strongest scum-vibes (I tend to be fairly cynical and scum-read a lot more into things than I probably should) and/or non-helpful feelings (from being mostly absent) are on that list.

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pubby

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Re: BM32: All Dwarves are Bastards Mafia - DAY ONE
« Reply #401 on: April 12, 2021, 12:35:45 pm »

Did y'all miss the post when I claimed to be in a neighborhood too?
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mathdude

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Re: BM32: All Dwarves are Bastards Mafia - DAY ONE
« Reply #402 on: April 12, 2021, 12:51:40 pm »

Did y'all miss the post when I claimed to be in a neighborhood too?

Miss?  No.

Forget about?  Yes.

Is your being in a neighbourhood supposed to clear you as town?  Is it supposed to excuse the fact that you haven't said much?  I'm not saying you need to share much about it at this point.  But having 1 other person paired with you (and they supposedly invited you) doesn't seem very helpful to us.

I just looked back through your ~10 posts you've made so far this game.  Only 1 or 2 have actually had much content to them (such as your early vote and logic on Didds that generated much discussion and follow-up).
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Awaclus

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Re: BM32: All Dwarves are Bastards Mafia - DAY ONE
« Reply #403 on: April 12, 2021, 01:02:10 pm »

I'm still not convinced of the numbers.  "Currently it is more likely than not that scum already has that information".  How can you know that?  Do you know how many scum there are?  Do you know that scum is in the group?  Are you scum and in that group?  In a BM game, how can we even guess any numbers?

I may not be able to read many of you guys yet, being fairly new.  But I can play numbers games.  From Didds' perspective, if she's town, and we assume 3 scum out of 12 players this game (which I fully admit could be slightly or completely wrong!)... the remaining 2 in her neighbourhood have (8C2)/(11C2)=28/55 (~50%) chance of both being town.  If there are only 2 scum, I believe that works out to 36/55 (~65%) chance the other two are town.  And if Didds is scum, none of this matters since she already knows enough about the neighbourhood.

So are you still fairly sure that "scum already knows who's in the neighbourhood"?

3 out of 12 is a very balanced setup, and joth did promise the game would not be intentionally unbalanced, so I think it's very likely those are the numbers unless there are 3rd parties. Even something like a Survivor is more likely to replace a townie than a scummie.
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pubby

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Re: BM32: All Dwarves are Bastards Mafia - DAY ONE
« Reply #404 on: April 12, 2021, 01:12:38 pm »

But having 1 other person paired with you (and they supposedly invited you) doesn't seem very helpful to us.
Is this a slip? I didn't say anything about the neighborhood being me and only one other person.

I can see several players here not caring about my reveal, but I would think surely the guy doing the calculations and trying to determine the setup would care about there being a second neighborhood.
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Brightgalrs

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Re: BM32: All Dwarves are Bastards Mafia - DAY ONE
« Reply #405 on: April 12, 2021, 01:19:26 pm »

I can see several players here not caring about my reveal, but I would think surely the guy doing the calculations and trying to determine the setup would care about there being a second neighborhood.
I was just about to post about that:

One more question, is it night only? (since you could otherwise discuss now what to share)?

No, it’s always open. It has not been very active...

I'm in a neighborhood too but we only have daychat. It's unrelated to my role - I was invited in the middle of D1 by another player.
There is an apparent contradiction here, which I've highlighted in bold. And it's such an obvious one, that because no one else has picked up on it, I'm inclined to believe that it's willful ignorance on the part of the Bad Dwarfs. Like they're intentionally overlooking such useful ammunition because WCD is their ally.
Could two neighborhoods have different chat restrictions? Sure, but keep in mind my main point is that no one has remarked on this for the last 100 posts.
Unvote
Vote: WestCoastDidds
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Awaclus

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Re: BM32: All Dwarves are Bastards Mafia - DAY ONE
« Reply #406 on: April 12, 2021, 01:24:32 pm »

Could two neighborhoods have different chat restrictions? Sure, but keep in mind my main point is that no one has remarked on this for the last 100 posts.

Maybe nobody remarked on it because it wasn't very remarkable.
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Brightgalrs

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Re: BM32: All Dwarves are Bastards Mafia - DAY ONE
« Reply #407 on: April 12, 2021, 01:31:18 pm »

Could two neighborhoods have different chat restrictions? Sure, but keep in mind my main point is that no one has remarked on this for the last 100 posts.

Maybe nobody remarked on it because it wasn't very remarkable.
So far there's been only a handful of remarkable things. EFHW's strange extra vote. WestCoastDidds's nameclaim (and partial roleclaim). And then pubby's partial roleclaim.

"willful ignorance" indeed.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: BM32: All Dwarves are Bastards Mafia - DAY ONE
« Reply #408 on: April 12, 2021, 01:34:24 pm »

So, Brighty, I’m scummy because my neighborhood is open all the time? I’m not following.
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Awaclus

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Re: BM32: All Dwarves are Bastards Mafia - DAY ONE
« Reply #409 on: April 12, 2021, 01:36:06 pm »

Could two neighborhoods have different chat restrictions? Sure, but keep in mind my main point is that no one has remarked on this for the last 100 posts.

Maybe nobody remarked on it because it wasn't very remarkable.
So far there's been only a handful of remarkable things. EFHW's strange extra vote. WestCoastDidds's nameclaim (and partial roleclaim). And then pubby's partial roleclaim.

"willful ignorance" indeed.

There's been a lot of remarkable things. Like votes, lurking, a bunch of stuff about 7dwarves, etc. The prod stuff was also remarkable until it turned out there was an explanation for it. I get e-mail notifications for new posts all the time, generally the things people post aren't pointless anymore.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: BM32: All Dwarves are Bastards Mafia - DAY ONE
« Reply #410 on: April 12, 2021, 01:38:01 pm »

At this point, I’m finding myself wondering why the people in my neighborhood are choosing not to share that.

I was giving everyone a chance to read in, but the choice to remain anonymous seems suspect to me.

Pubby, who was in your neighborhood? Why did it open? Are you sure it’s day only?
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mathdude

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Re: BM32: All Dwarves are Bastards Mafia - DAY ONE
« Reply #411 on: April 12, 2021, 01:46:59 pm »

But having 1 other person paired with you (and they supposedly invited you) doesn't seem very helpful to us.
Is this a slip? I didn't say anything about the neighborhood being me and only one other person.

I can see several players here not caring about my reveal, but I would think surely the guy doing the calculations and trying to determine the setup would care about there being a second neighborhood.

I don't get what the "slip" is. You said you were invited by someone middle of D1. Are you now saying there are more than 2 of you in it? You gave no indication of that, so I assumed it was just the 2 of you.

Or are you now saying that there were 2 scum. They have recruited you to be their third. And for some reason, you guys have day chat instead of night chat (blame BM)?

And yes, neighbourhoods have different restrictions. In BM. Big deal? I don't get what the issue is.
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Brightgalrs

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Re: BM32: All Dwarves are Bastards Mafia - DAY ONE
« Reply #412 on: April 12, 2021, 02:14:38 pm »

And yes, neighbourhoods have different restrictions. In BM. Big deal? I don't get what the issue is.
It didn't use to be a big deal, but became one when no one acknowledged it as even a small deal.
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Awaclus

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Re: BM32: All Dwarves are Bastards Mafia - DAY ONE
« Reply #413 on: April 12, 2021, 02:22:07 pm »

And yes, neighbourhoods have different restrictions. In BM. Big deal? I don't get what the issue is.
It didn't use to be a big deal, but became one when no one acknowledged it as even a small deal.

This seems like a waste of time to me. I don't even remember if I noticed it and didn't think it was at all significant, or just didn't notice.
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Galzria

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Re: BM32: All Dwarves are Bastards Mafia - DAY ONE
« Reply #414 on: April 12, 2021, 02:24:25 pm »

And yes, neighbourhoods have different restrictions. In BM. Big deal? I don't get what the issue is.
It didn't use to be a big deal, but became one when no one acknowledged it as even a small deal.

So why are you voting Didds and not Pubby?

I would’ve been much more suspect if they were claimed to be the same mechanic. The fact that they’re different probably wasn’t talked about because it’s a complete null fact.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

WestCoastDidds

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Re: BM32: All Dwarves are Bastards Mafia - DAY ONE
« Reply #415 on: April 12, 2021, 03:07:12 pm »

The 7 dwarves neighborhood as been open since the beginning of the game, so a night and a day. I got the QT link as part of my role post, so no one had to be invited or do anything to make it happen. 

That seems entirely different than what pubby is describing.  I still don't see how that is scummy.

And why isn't pubby answering questions about his neighborhood. Someone with the ability to create them is more interesting than a neighborhood as part of the flavor.
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I never got to read what Didds said, but whatever she's saying, she's right.

WestCoastDidds

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Re: BM32: All Dwarves are Bastards Mafia - DAY ONE
« Reply #416 on: April 12, 2021, 03:11:20 pm »

Didds count

Jimmmmm (3): Swowl, , EFHW, mathdude
pubby (3): Awaclus, Jimmmmm, WestCoastDidds
WestCoastDidds (3): pubby, faust, Brightgalrs
Galzria (1): infangthief
infangthief (1): Galzria
EFHW (1):

Not voting:  scolapasta

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to exile. Day 1 ends at 5:15 pm forum time.
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Galzria

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Re: BM32: All Dwarves are Bastards Mafia - DAY ONE
« Reply #417 on: April 12, 2021, 03:18:17 pm »

unvote

Nobody wants to Exile fang, apparently.

Let me iso Didds, Jimmmmm & pubby, and then I’ll vote for one of those 3.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

WestCoastDidds

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Re: BM32: All Dwarves are Bastards Mafia - DAY ONE
« Reply #418 on: April 12, 2021, 03:23:24 pm »

I don't have a cool tool so I am counting posts by hand... these are the folks I perceive as low participation

EFHW: 5
Jimmmm: 9
Brighty: 18
Swowl: 10
pubby: 12

Assuming in a BM game that most the fun will be happening at night (and what do I know, Joth could do anything), I think it serves us well to have the present players still playing tomorrow.
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mathdude

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Re: BM32: All Dwarves are Bastards Mafia - DAY ONE
« Reply #419 on: April 12, 2021, 03:27:53 pm »

Didds count

Jimmmmm (3): Swowl, , EFHW, mathdude
pubby (3): Awaclus, Jimmmmm, WestCoastDidds
WestCoastDidds (3): pubby, faust, Brightgalrs
Galzria (1): infangthief
infangthief (1): Galzria
EFHW (1):

Not voting:  scolapasta

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to exile. Day 1 ends at 5:15 pm forum time.

Less than 2 hours. Not sure who will all be around. I'm here intermittently, but playing with my kids so I'm hit or miss for deadline. Looks like it will be Didds, pubby, or Jimmmmm, if anyone.
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pubby

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Re: BM32: All Dwarves are Bastards Mafia - DAY ONE
« Reply #420 on: April 12, 2021, 03:28:54 pm »

My neighborhood is day-only, and is a big enough game mechanic that makes me doubt there would be other neighborhoods in the game. I'm not saying there can't be a second one, but with what I know, a second neighborhood seems highly redundant from a game design point of view.

And no, I'm not ready to reveal who's in my neighborhood, but mathdude was right: it's only 1 other person (my inviter) at the time being.

I don't get what the "slip" is.
If the person who invited me is scum, and you are scum, then you would know that I was in their neighborhood and that there were only 2 of us at the moment.

At this point, I’m finding myself wondering why the people in my neighborhood are choosing not to share that.

I was giving everyone a chance to read in, but the choice to remain anonymous seems suspect to me.
Pardon my shouting, but YOU HAVE DAYCHAT WITH THESE PEOPLE. You would have asked them in that, and would be aware of their thoughts on the matter!

My hunch - and a good one at that - is that you are scum with 2 other disney dwarves, and have only night chat with them. You were hoping that one of them would back up your claim, and were also hoping that the adorable appearance of your dwarves would make you appear town.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: BM32: All Dwarves are Bastards Mafia - DAY ONE
« Reply #421 on: April 12, 2021, 03:31:26 pm »

wait, so your argument is that I don't have a neighborhood with daychat? That I am making it all up?
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infangthief

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Re: BM32: All Dwarves are Bastards Mafia - DAY ONE
« Reply #422 on: April 12, 2021, 03:32:21 pm »

unvote

Nobody wants to Exile fang, apparently.

Let me iso Didds, Jimmmmm & pubby, and then I’ll vote for one of those 3.
unvote

Nobody wants to Exile Galz, apparently.

I'm torn between Didds and Jimmmmm, with pubby a close third.

PPE 2
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pubby

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Re: BM32: All Dwarves are Bastards Mafia - DAY ONE
« Reply #423 on: April 12, 2021, 03:35:22 pm »

wait, so your argument is that I don't have a neighborhood with daychat? That I am making it all up?
Yep.

If you were in a day chat, it's 100% given the other members would be talking about what to reveal.

If you're clueless enough to say,

At this point, I’m finding myself wondering why the people in my neighborhood are choosing not to share that.

I was giving everyone a chance to read in, but the choice to remain anonymous seems suspect to me.

that means you don't have daychat.
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pubby

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Re: BM32: All Dwarves are Bastards Mafia - DAY ONE
« Reply #424 on: April 12, 2021, 03:36:04 pm »

And before anyone jumps in, I think Galz and Awaclus are your scum buddies.
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