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Author Topic: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Game concluded)  (Read 197795 times)

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Dylan32

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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1525 on: April 19, 2021, 09:46:15 pm »

Oh but townie of the remainder group is probably between ash and LL for me.
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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1526 on: April 19, 2021, 10:27:26 pm »

I couldn't focus on the math. I think we should ask about two people because 1. The chances of scum are less than random. 2. Sorting out an answer to a scum existing answer is easier. 3. We'll never agree on more, though I guess Dylan can just choose.

We don't know how many scum there are, which I think weakens the helpfulness of Space's plan to ask about half of us, if I am understanding correctly. Chances are there would be scum in each group, and if there are 4 scum then knowing there are two in one group is the same as chance. I'm sure I'm missing things. Sorry if I've mangled your idea.
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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1527 on: April 19, 2021, 10:30:33 pm »

Since Didds voted me for my previous wrong-headed idea (testing Dylan), here's a much scummier one. We get Dylan's result and then exile him to see if we can trust it.

Also, vote: Didds
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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1528 on: April 19, 2021, 10:37:53 pm »

Regarding testing me, I don't see the point today, but would becwilling tomorrow assuming my continued survival.
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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1529 on: April 19, 2021, 10:39:19 pm »

Would also vote LL.
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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1530 on: April 19, 2021, 10:51:59 pm »

Also if you are going to put the towniest people in the testing group, you don't need the test to know which group to vote in. It sounds like Space's plan is counting on their reads being accurate. I also think a more immediately useful test is better because by the time we can make use of the longer term plan we could have already lost the game.
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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1531 on: April 19, 2021, 11:38:15 pm »

Since Didds voted me for my previous wrong-headed idea (testing Dylan), here's a much scummier one. We get Dylan's result and then exile him to see if we can trust it.

Also, vote: Didds

This is either super scummy or it's super towny. I can't figure out which.

I think space's plan is better than Mix's, though I'm too tired to really think about the math.
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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1532 on: April 20, 2021, 02:33:31 am »

I don't like the plan at all for the question, so I skimmed all of those posts.

I think we should use the yes/no question on a setup clarification that the mod normally won't answer, not an alignment question that you are making way more complicated than needed.

Like, you could do a straight up "is X town-aligned" and it is a cop.  Woot.
Using it to place some number of baddies in a subgroup seems like a suboptimal way of doing things.  Plus, it is easy to manipulate if mafia happens to be the one suggesting the groups.  Or Dylan is mafia and just literally makes things up.

A setup question could be "are there exactly four alignments" or "does a town-aligned cylon exist" or "has MiX lied about his powers in the game thread" or literally anything that can be yes/no, right?

If I were Dylan and had this power, I would have just waited until I had a question I wanted clarified and just asked it.  I get sharing it and trying to crowdsource the "optimal" use, but I think it just wasted a day, ended up with a not great plan, and left me specifically disinterested.

So that's that.

Is anyone at or close to E-1?  Let's exile.
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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1533 on: April 20, 2021, 03:10:02 am »

In what way shape or form is asking if there's an even amount of scum in a 4 player group (not counting Dylan) a 50/50 chance? Odd is much more likely.

What I'm going for is P(n==0)+P(n==2) ~= P(n==1)+P(n==3), i.e. the chance of having zero or two scum is more or less the same as having 1 or 3 scum. You can even add in more scum if you want to be thorough about covering all the game combinations. So mostly it's asking whether, in a townie-reading group, we have 0 or 1, with a small chance of 2. Since 0 counts as even, then 0 ought to be almost as likely as 1. If we really do have zero, our whole test group is kind of IC'd if Dylan ever does flip green, unless we start suspecting later that we're in the much-less-likely 2-scum scenario, but I think the natural gameplay will take care of that, and it's a very precarious position for scum to play in.

For one possible difference between the two variants of the question ("even/odd" vs "at least 2 in X"), consider a case where there are currently only two cylon-aligned players (e.g. because Awaclus didn't join them maybe?), and we have one in the testing set and one in the remainder. If we do a parity-based test, we at least realise there's only one in the test set (or an exceedingly unlikely three), whereas from the "at least 2" test we're left with knowing there's 0-1 on the test side and any number at all on the remainder. I don't think this is so unlikely a scenario, though I do agree that I think three scum overall is more likely.

@Dylan, I'm really quite confident that parity (i.e. the odd/even question) is more informative than any "at least X" test, but I'm also feeling that I'm unlikely to convince MiX at this time of night. Honestly, I can just think of too many maths puzzles where parity is a stronger way of doing things.

If we want to split the player group in two a different way, one alternative I thought of was to split us into a slightly-scummier five and a townier six, then to ask whether there are strictly more cylon-aligned people in the bigger group than the smaller one, but I'm not sure whether that's as good.

By the laws of deepwolfing, a "townie-reading group" always has 1 scum, and exactly 1 scum. I don't see why using reads to make questions 50/50 is better than using the law of probabilities to make 50/50 questions. I hope you agree with the following statement: "If there are exactly 3 cylon-aligned players, a question that asks whether there are at least 2 cylon-aligned players in a group of 5, assuming Dylan is town, is a 50/50 question". This seems much more exact than your argument about the 50/50-ness of your question.

For example, I'm basically 100% certain there's 1 scum, and only 1 scum, in the target group. That's not really valuable information.
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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1534 on: April 20, 2021, 03:17:56 am »

Vote Count 4.5

Robz888 (4): Jack Rudd, A Drowned Kernel, MiX, scolapasta
A Drowned Kernel (1): Robz888
EFHW (2): LaLight, WestCoastDidds
WestCoastDidds (1): EFHW

Not Voting (3): Dylan32, ashersky, SpaceAnemone

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to exile. Day 4 ends April 21, 2021, 08:30:00 am. This is in roughly 29 hours.
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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1535 on: April 20, 2021, 04:37:12 am »

vote: Robz888

In case he's Hated.
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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1536 on: April 20, 2021, 04:37:53 am »

unvote
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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1537 on: April 20, 2021, 08:00:37 am »

I realize that we're close to deadline and I'm complicating things even more, but:

Based on my win condition, I have reason to believe that it's very likely that there's at least one scum who is a civilian, and probably not more than one. Right now robz is my best guess for tha, but it's also another subgrouping to consider for dylan's question

Did we lose track of this bit of information?
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Dylan32

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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1538 on: April 20, 2021, 11:27:00 am »

I don't like the plan at all for the question, so I skimmed all of those posts.

I think we should use the yes/no question on a setup clarification that the mod normally won't answer, not an alignment question that you are making way more complicated than needed.

Like, you could do a straight up "is X town-aligned" and it is a cop.  Woot.
Using it to place some number of baddies in a subgroup seems like a suboptimal way of doing things.  Plus, it is easy to manipulate if mafia happens to be the one suggesting the groups.  Or Dylan is mafia and just literally makes things up.

A setup question could be "are there exactly four alignments" or "does a town-aligned cylon exist" or "has MiX lied about his powers in the game thread" or literally anything that can be yes/no, right?

If I were Dylan and had this power, I would have just waited until I had a question I wanted clarified and just asked it.  I get sharing it and trying to crowdsource the "optimal" use, but I think it just wasted a day, ended up with a not great plan, and left me specifically disinterested.

So that's that.

Is anyone at or close to E-1?  Let's exile.

You say it wasted a day as though we aren't in the middle of a game that started with two no exile days?
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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1539 on: April 20, 2021, 11:27:49 am »

I realize that we're close to deadline and I'm complicating things even more, but:

Based on my win condition, I have reason to believe that it's very likely that there's at least one scum who is a civilian, and probably not more than one. Right now robz is my best guess for tha, but it's also another subgrouping to consider for dylan's question

Did we lose track of this bit of information?

Is that something that would affect our exile today? Because I saw it but figured it would be most helpful later on.
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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1540 on: April 20, 2021, 11:51:57 am »

I don't like the plan at all for the question, so I skimmed all of those posts.

I think we should use the yes/no question on a setup clarification that the mod normally won't answer, not an alignment question that you are making way more complicated than needed.

Like, you could do a straight up "is X town-aligned" and it is a cop.  Woot.
Using it to place some number of baddies in a subgroup seems like a suboptimal way of doing things.  Plus, it is easy to manipulate if mafia happens to be the one suggesting the groups.  Or Dylan is mafia and just literally makes things up.

A setup question could be "are there exactly four alignments" or "does a town-aligned cylon exist" or "has MiX lied about his powers in the game thread" or literally anything that can be yes/no, right?

If I were Dylan and had this power, I would have just waited until I had a question I wanted clarified and just asked it.  I get sharing it and trying to crowdsource the "optimal" use, but I think it just wasted a day, ended up with a not great plan, and left me specifically disinterested.

So that's that.

Is anyone at or close to E-1?  Let's exile.

You say it wasted a day as though we aren't in the middle of a game that started with two no exile days?

I do hear what Ash is saying about getting an answer to something that we couldn't otherwise figure out as easily via regular game play. That said, I have yet to think of anything that's better, which is why I'd be ok with using it for the group copping idea.
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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1541 on: April 20, 2021, 12:14:16 pm »

So I just went to my QT to ask my question, and I realized that my concern about ADK's win condition for this game was based on misreading things in my QT, so that's not a concern for me at all besides the usual "can this 3rd party win with town?" and I have no personal reason to find out beyond winning this game. There are no special end-states or anything I had mentioned that I am seeking besides just winning. I can't be more specific without direct quoting, but I needed to point this out since I had mentioned being worried about it earlier.
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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1542 on: April 20, 2021, 12:53:13 pm »

So I just went to my QT to ask my question, and I realized that my concern about ADK's win condition for this game was based on misreading things in my QT, so that's not a concern for me at all besides the usual "can this 3rd party win with town?" and I have no personal reason to find out beyond winning this game. There are no special end-states or anything I had mentioned that I am seeking besides just winning. I can't be more specific without direct quoting, but I needed to point this out since I had mentioned being worried about it earlier.

Did you ask the question then? Which one?
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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1543 on: April 20, 2021, 01:08:41 pm »

I started a string of responses in different tabs earlier today, but I've been too busy to finish any of them yet. Here's one that's more or less ready to go:

I realize that we're close to deadline and I'm complicating things even more, but:

Based on my win condition, I have reason to believe that it's very likely that there's at least one scum who is a civilian, and probably not more than one. Right now robz is my best guess for tha, but it's also another subgrouping to consider for dylan's question

Did we lose track of this bit of information?

Oh, yes, a little! Thanks for the reminder :-) I do think it's covered okay in the groupings I suggested, but on the other hand, I think MiX (and implicitly Dylan) being in Testing and Ash and Awaclus being in Remainder more or less works.

For reference, this is what I've got in terms of people's claims, including my assumptions about military/non-military and some testing results, so please let me know if anything is wrong or if it's missing any key pieces:
1. Jack Rudd -- Saul Tigh, military
2. SpaceAnemone -- Gaeta, military
3. WestCoastDidds -- Starbuck, in pilots QT, military
4. MiX -- Baltar, civilian
5. EFHW -- Duala, possibly cylon species through LL's D1 result, military
6. scolapasta -- Bill Adama, military
7. LaLight -- Helo, in pilots QT, military
8. Dylan32 -- Zarek, civilian
9. A Drowned Kernel -- Apollo, tested Human d3, in pilots QT, military
10. Swowl -- Boomer, human-aligned, in pilots QT, military, died n3
11. Robz888 -- Cally, civilian
12. ashersky -- Chief, civilian, tested Cylon d2
13. Awaclus -- Billy, human-aligned, civilian, died n2
14. mathdude -- Roslin, human-aligned, civilian, died mid-d1

As Ashersky has said all along, the civilian-vs-military distinction for the deck crew members (Cally and the Chief) may be a blurry line.

I don't think either of the tests was yet trustworthy:
Mix claimed at #1264 to have picked "cylon" on N1 and "human" on N2.
D2 test: Only "cylon" from Mix? -> Fits with Ash getting cylon result
D3 test: 2*human ->  fits with ADK getting human result
D4 test: Only my setting?
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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1544 on: April 20, 2021, 01:26:56 pm »

@MiX, I feel like there's very little chance that we're talking about exactly the same thing here without having incompatible hidden assumptions, because I strongly disagree with almost everything you say.

By the laws of deepwolfing, a "townie-reading group" always has 1 scum, and exactly 1 scum.

Does "deepwolfing", mean that one member of a team will always try to behave in as townie a manner as possible? If so, then I think it's probably true on average, but it can't be a "law", because if we assume that as town, then scum could get an edge simply by refusing to have any super-townie members, thus being able to count on town exiling one of their own to fill the quota.

I don't see why using reads to make questions 50/50 is better than using the law of probabilities to make 50/50 questions. I hope you agree with the following statement: "If there are exactly 3 cylon-aligned players, a question that asks whether there are at least 2 cylon-aligned players in a group of 5, assuming Dylan is town, is a 50/50 question". This seems much more exact than your argument about the 50/50-ness of your question.

First up: where is all your confidence in exactly three scum coming from? Do you have some extra game information that I missed?

Second up, let's assume a completely random group of 5 (excluding Dylan), in which each player has a 3/10 chance of being scum. By a rough simulation, I get the following histogram over the number of scums in that random set.:
   0 scums: 16.7%
   1 scums: 50.1%
   2 scums: 29.9%
   3 scums: 3.3%

So if you do "at least two", it's a 33-v-67 question, whereas "odd or even" is 53-v-47. What's more, once we have an odd-or-even, we're left in a much easier game state, because telling the difference between 1 and 3 is easier than telling the difference between 2 and 3, and I think normal game-play (like what we're going to have to do anyway, since we can't actually trust that Dylan tells us the truth) helps more in determining where we are. It's that ability alternate between states giving a "yes" and those giving a "no" that make me think that something parity-based is going to be more helpful to us than anything with an inequality is.

Of course, the above is illustrative only, because of I don't want to assume exactly 3 scums, and in real life we can use reads to at least partially sort out the list to make our expected histogram look a bit different. In particular, my initial proposal was meant to have 5 people such that ~50% of the probability is on 1, most of the rest is on zero, and a smaller portion is on 2 (or more).

For example, I'm basically 100% certain there's 1 scum, and only 1 scum, in the target group. That's not really valuable information.

If you can be that certain for any target group proposed, then congrats, we can use you as a perfect scum detector and just win, if you're town.
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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1545 on: April 20, 2021, 01:38:14 pm »

Did that simulation include that there's 3 scum? I don't think I need to prove that:

If there's 3 scum in 10 people, then in 2 5 people groups, scum is in a 0/3, 1/2, 2/1 or 3/0 split, with equal probability of being 1/2 as 2/1, and 0/3 as 3/0. So 0/3 + 1/2 odds are equal to 2/1 + 3/0 odds, which means each of them is 50%. Note that the second sum is the "at least 2 scum in the first group" question.

We are definitely talking over each other at this point, so I don't really see us agreeing on this before the day's over. Dylan should just ask whatever he feels like.
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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1546 on: April 20, 2021, 01:55:57 pm »

I thought Ashersky's proposed uses of the question were all fair, though I think they have similar or equivalent weaknesses to the other things we've considered. A straight-up cop shot is pretty much where Dylan opened up the discussion. I totally agree that "baddies in a subgroup" isn't ideal if you don't trust whoever's picking the "baddies", but that was why I was trying to pitch my idea as a consultation with the thread, because talking about who we trust enough to want to put them into a goodies/baddies pot is precisely what we want people to be doing for fruitful gameplay anyway. And of course, if we don't trust Dylan then the whole thing is moot.

As for the game-mechanics ones, I think "exactly four alignments" is the kind of thing faust could swing on a technicality, depending on whether MiX's claimed town-but-survivor is different from my straight-up town role. The "does a town-aligned cylon exist" might be complicated by the fact that it seems likely that Swowl-Boomer was exactly a town-aligned cylon, so does Swowl still exist for the purpose of the question or not? "Is a town-aligned cylon still alive at this present moment in the game" might be a better wording. However, now the mechanism for operating the cylon testing is out in the open, I suspect it's even less useful for us to know whether that's the case, because if all it takes is killing one of me or MiX, then if the cylon-aligned faction is too worried about it, they'll just get one of us killed.
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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1547 on: April 20, 2021, 02:09:21 pm »

Did that simulation include that there's 3 scum? I don't think I need to prove that:

If there's 3 scum in 10 people, then in 2 5 people groups, scum is in a 0/3, 1/2, 2/1 or 3/0 split, with equal probability of being 1/2 as 2/1, and 0/3 as 3/0. So 0/3 + 1/2 odds are equal to 2/1 + 3/0 odds, which means each of them is 50%. Note that the second sum is the "at least 2 scum in the first group" question.

We are definitely talking over each other at this point, so I don't really see us agreeing on this before the day's over. Dylan should just ask whatever he feels like.

Aha, sorry, yes, the numbers I pasted in were for the group of 4, because I'd been thinking on the side about the point that including Dylan in the 5 isn't necessary. This is why I shouldn't start something technical then go back to work and forget my train of thought :-/

To summarise using the conventions you used above: for the "2 or more" version:
"no" -> 0/3 or 1/2
"yes" -> 2/1 or 3/0
-- this relies on there being exactly 3 scum, because it uses a cut-off between 1 and 2 to cut that particular distribution in two.

And for the "is the number even" version:
"no" -> 1/2 or 3/0
"yes" -> 0/3 or 2/1
-- this will work just the same for other numbers of scum, and other sizes of group.
-- it also gives an outcome where within the "no" or "yes" bucket there are two more-different possibilities, and I think that makes it easier for us to work out which case it really is, based on where the scummy people are, e.g. after exiling one from each set and seeing who scum decides to NK.
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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1548 on: April 20, 2021, 02:55:53 pm »

I thought Ashersky's proposed uses of the question were all fair, though I think they have similar or equivalent weaknesses to the other things we've considered. A straight-up cop shot is pretty much where Dylan opened up the discussion. I totally agree that "baddies in a subgroup" isn't ideal if you don't trust whoever's picking the "baddies", but that was why I was trying to pitch my idea as a consultation with the thread, because talking about who we trust enough to want to put them into a goodies/baddies pot is precisely what we want people to be doing for fruitful gameplay anyway. And of course, if we don't trust Dylan then the whole thing is moot.

As for the game-mechanics ones, I think "exactly four alignments" is the kind of thing faust could swing on a technicality, depending on whether MiX's claimed town-but-survivor is different from my straight-up town role. The "does a town-aligned cylon exist" might be complicated by the fact that it seems likely that Swowl-Boomer was exactly a town-aligned cylon, so does Swowl still exist for the purpose of the question or not? "Is a town-aligned cylon still alive at this present moment in the game" might be a better wording. However, now the mechanism for operating the cylon testing is out in the open, I suspect it's even less useful for us to know whether that's the case, because if all it takes is killing one of me or MiX, then if the cylon-aligned faction is too worried about it, they'll just get one of us killed.

As a clarification: I'm strictly town.
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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1549 on: April 20, 2021, 04:22:28 pm »

Vote: EFHW
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