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Author Topic: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Game concluded)  (Read 197639 times)

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EFHW

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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1500 on: April 19, 2021, 02:33:00 pm »

I was originally thinking we should choose the scummiest players. But now I think we should choose the towniest. And maybe just two people. Two IC's is awesome, and if we get an answer that there is someone clyon aligned/non-town, it takes fewer exiles to track them down.

I suggest Space and Dylan. Space for towniness and Dylan so we know whether to believe the result we get.
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scolapasta

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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1501 on: April 19, 2021, 02:39:32 pm »

I was originally thinking we should choose the scummiest players. But now I think we should choose the towniest. And maybe just two people. Two IC's is awesome, and if we get an answer that there is someone clyon aligned/non-town, it takes fewer exiles to track them down.

I suggest Space and Dylan. Space for towniness and Dylan so we know whether to believe the result we get.

How would putting Dylan in there make a difference? Assuming space is town, Dylan would say no cylon-aligned either way.

We also still have to worry about cylons (or human, for that matter; though I still think flavor makes that significantly less likely) that can turn into Cylon-aligned, so we won't have full ICs, either way.
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1502 on: April 19, 2021, 02:40:20 pm »

I realize that we're close to deadline and I'm complicating things even more, but:

Based on my win condition, I have reason to believe that it's very likely that there's at least one scum who is a civilian, and probably not more than one. Right now robz is my best guess for tha, but it's also another subgrouping to consider for dylan's question
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Robz888

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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1503 on: April 19, 2021, 02:54:04 pm »

Really sorry for my pathetic performance here, people, but I am not mafia.
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MiX

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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1504 on: April 19, 2021, 03:08:21 pm »

Really sorry for my pathetic performance here, people, but I am not mafia.

Are you a cylon?

What were your targets?
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EFHW

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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1505 on: April 19, 2021, 03:18:44 pm »

I was originally thinking we should choose the scummiest players. But now I think we should choose the towniest. And maybe just two people. Two IC's is awesome, and if we get an answer that there is someone clyon aligned/non-town, it takes fewer exiles to track them down.

I suggest Space and Dylan. Space for towniness and Dylan so we know whether to believe the result we get.

How would putting Dylan in there make a difference? Assuming space is town, Dylan would say no cylon-aligned either way.

We also still have to worry about cylons (or human, for that matter; though I still think flavor makes that significantly less likely) that can turn into Cylon-aligned, so we won't have full ICs, either way.
Right. Oh well.
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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1506 on: April 19, 2021, 03:19:39 pm »

I was originally thinking we should choose the scummiest players. But now I think we should choose the towniest. And maybe just two people. Two IC's is awesome, and if we get an answer that there is someone clyon aligned/non-town, it takes fewer exiles to track them down.

I suggest Space and Dylan. Space for towniness and Dylan so we know whether to believe the result we get.

If Dylan is scum he’s not going to give us the real result.  Upon further reflection, this feels like an attempt to get Dylan to waste his question.
Vote: EFHW

PPE 1
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MiX

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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1507 on: April 19, 2021, 03:21:25 pm »

I was originally thinking we should choose the scummiest players. But now I think we should choose the towniest. And maybe just two people. Two IC's is awesome, and if we get an answer that there is someone clyon aligned/non-town, it takes fewer exiles to track them down.

I suggest Space and Dylan. Space for towniness and Dylan so we know whether to believe the result we get.

If Dylan is scum he’s not going to give us the real result.  Upon further reflection, this feels like an attempt to get Dylan to waste his question.
Vote: EFHW

PPE 1

This was my immediate reaction too. Didds gets a bunch of town points.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1508 on: April 19, 2021, 04:42:41 pm »


I like this, though we should consider whether it's better information if we ask whether there's an even number of cylon-aligned players in a given group (where zero counts as even), rather than just if there's one or more.

I must be missing something. This question seems less useful because we could end up with a "yes" meaning two or none of the group are cylon-aligned.

My thinking is that the best use of a yes-no question is to partition all possible game states into two equiprobable halves, and to use the question to cut the possibility space in half. This follows from entropy (that's just a link to the "Entropy (information theory)" Wikipedia page), and the fact that the best information we can get is when p=0.5 for each of two outcomes.

If we put enough scummy people into a pot, we automatically expect that there should be at least one scum in there. Maybe we balance it so that we expect 1 or 2, then zero would be a surprise, so really we're using the question to distinguish between 1 or 2 scum in the pot, then an "even" response has a very small chance that there are 0 in the pot (and a not-impossible chance there are 4). Similarly, an "odd" response gives us exactly 1 or 3.

If we do as you suggested (modulo the thing about including Dylan!), and pick a small number of townies and then use the question to attempt to IC them, then there's an inherent risk that one of the people we pick isn't actually townie after all, then we just end up with a new at-least-one-scum-in-X constraint amongst a group of people who're playing in a townie way. I feel like that's not really a 50/50 sort of outcome.

What if we pick the most townie 4-ish people for the parity test, though? If it's an even number of scum, we assume zero by default (with a much lower chance of it being two), and if it's odd, then there's probably exactly one scum. Scum then has a strong disincentive to pick off those townie-seeming town members inside the pool, because they don't want to increase the PoE we get on the one possible non-townie one.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1509 on: April 19, 2021, 04:52:39 pm »

@EFHW, you targeted LaLight on D1, and he reported knowing that he'd been targeted by a cylon that day. I feel like this is something we should address, especially since Dee isn't a canon cylon.

I know the cylon detector is potentially broken today, but I still feel like from a game design point of view there's a reasonable chance of a third player sharing the calibration duties, so would it be sensible to propose that you submit yourself for testing anyway? I figure it's a waste not to test anyone at all, even if it might just be defaulting to what I set it to if MiX really is the only other player able to use it.
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MiX

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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1510 on: April 19, 2021, 06:07:25 pm »

@EFHW, you targeted LaLight on D1, and he reported knowing that he'd been targeted by a cylon that day. I feel like this is something we should address, especially since Dee isn't a canon cylon.

I know the cylon detector is potentially broken today, but I still feel like from a game design point of view there's a reasonable chance of a third player sharing the calibration duties, so would it be sensible to propose that you submit yourself for testing anyway? I figure it's a waste not to test anyone at all, even if it might just be defaulting to what I set it to if MiX really is the only other player able to use it.

Oh, you're the other person behind it? So did you pick the same things as me?
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1511 on: April 19, 2021, 06:18:08 pm »

@EFHW, you targeted LaLight on D1, and he reported knowing that he'd been targeted by a cylon that day. I feel like this is something we should address, especially since Dee isn't a canon cylon.

I know the cylon detector is potentially broken today, but I still feel like from a game design point of view there's a reasonable chance of a third player sharing the calibration duties, so would it be sensible to propose that you submit yourself for testing anyway? I figure it's a waste not to test anyone at all, even if it might just be defaulting to what I set it to if MiX really is the only other player able to use it.

Oh, you're the other person behind it? So did you pick the same things as me?

Ah, yes, I was originally going to give a longer claim last night, but then I figured we might as well wait for the full round of flavour claims first, and also it was late and I didn't want to post too much while tired in case I regretted it later.

I think I very, very softly revealed it already in that I've agree with almost all Scola's criticisms off you, bar the case about your power not existing N1, because of course my power was different for the first night too. I didn't actually try using it N1 because it was all a bit unclear, so didn't seem to be worthwhile with curfew in effect.

N2 I set it to "human". I'd prefer not to reveal what I set it to last night before someone tries testing today. It's possible that another player will come forward and say that they also have that power, since I think giving it to only two of us is kind of swingy in a game where presumably faust thought we'd be exiling and incapacitating people at a higher rate than this.
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MiX

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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1512 on: April 19, 2021, 06:26:54 pm »

@EFHW, you targeted LaLight on D1, and he reported knowing that he'd been targeted by a cylon that day. I feel like this is something we should address, especially since Dee isn't a canon cylon.

I know the cylon detector is potentially broken today, but I still feel like from a game design point of view there's a reasonable chance of a third player sharing the calibration duties, so would it be sensible to propose that you submit yourself for testing anyway? I figure it's a waste not to test anyone at all, even if it might just be defaulting to what I set it to if MiX really is the only other player able to use it.

Oh, you're the other person behind it? So did you pick the same things as me?

Ah, yes, I was originally going to give a longer claim last night, but then I figured we might as well wait for the full round of flavour claims first, and also it was late and I didn't want to post too much while tired in case I regretted it later.

I think I very, very softly revealed it already in that I've agree with almost all Scola's criticisms off you, bar the case about your power not existing N1, because of course my power was different for the first night too. I didn't actually try using it N1 because it was all a bit unclear, so didn't seem to be worthwhile with curfew in effect.

N2 I set it to "human". I'd prefer not to reveal what I set it to last night before someone tries testing today. It's possible that another player will come forward and say that they also have that power, since I think giving it to only two of us is kind of swingy in a game where presumably faust thought we'd be exiling and incapacitating people at a higher rate than this.

Oh, whaaaaat, you get a power that is unknown and you do nothing with it? Awwww.

There's actually no roles that care about human or cylon (I guess LL's, but theirs also detects), so this power seems a bit useless...I guess we're supposed to exile cylons?
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1513 on: April 19, 2021, 06:28:27 pm »

Okay, in the interests of time, here's exactly how how my proposed version of Dylan's yes-no test might work. This is my current best guess of what gets the strongest info for town, but it's quite possible I've missed things that the rest of you can fill in, so consider this a consultation exercise if you like :-)

Testing group: MiX, me, Dylan, Jack, Didds

Remainder: ADK, Ash, EFHW, Scola, LL, Robz

We would ask whether there's an odd number of cylon-aligned players (making explict that we don't count zero as odd) in the testing group.

Some of my reasoning for this partitioning of the data is as follows:
  • MiX and ADK should be on opposite sides, since one of them being cylon strongly implies that the other is, and having a confusing zero-or-two scenario isn't what we want. I'm putting ADK on the outside since chances are they're third-party anyway.
  • Including one person who town doesn't mind voting for in the testing group gives us a strong place to start if we do get an odd response, and later on it may also be useful in we get an even response now but want to be sure it's not two scum instead of zero. That's why I've put Jack in the test set.
  • I've put three of the people from the Jack wagon into the testing set, and the other three in the remainder. This way if we do decide to trust both this info and MiX's report of at least one scum on the Jack wagon, then the group is split up nicely for that reasoning too.
  • I've put EFHW and LL in the remainder half because there's some odd stuff that doesn't quite gel about their claims.
  • I've put Robz in the opposite group from Jack because there's a reasonable level of support for exiling him already, and if we get a zero result then at least for today I think we assume zero in the test set and exile from that remainder set.
  • I actually feel townier on Scola than on Didds, but I realise I'm in the minority there, so I've put Didds inside the group and Scola outside it.
Remember, it's not like we're able to play as if this is guaranteed-true advice without Dylan flipping green at a later point in the game anyway. So what I'm trying to do here is just balance things up so we expect 0-1 scum in the "testing group". If we get an "odd" response, Jack is probably the first to be exiled. If we get "even", we assume zero scum in the testing group for today, and exile from the remainder group, in which case it currently looks like Robz gets the popular vote, though I guess there's still plenty of room for opinions to shift, and I think there are more people in the outside group that others are willing to vote for anyway.

So, who's in agreement, and are there any name swaps that make sense? If anyone disagrees outright and argues for using Dylan's shot more like a cop on a single player, are you really sure that that would give town more of an advantage than this?
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MiX

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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1514 on: April 19, 2021, 06:35:00 pm »

I am in perfect agreement with the group, except the question should be "are there at least 2 cylon-aligned players in the group". This way we get to exile in the group that has the most amount of scum right off the bat, and after a scum flip we have 2 groups, each of them have 1 scum.

I think the only difference between what I said and what Space said is that instead of doing a 0/1 cylons group and a 2/3 cylon group, Space does a 0/2 cylon group and a 1/3 cylon group. I'm not sure how this added complexity helps us. I'd wager that knowing where the majority of scum are is enough of an upside to do my suggestion over Space's suggestion.

Wait a second: Space, shouldn't the group with Dylan be the bigger one?
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1515 on: April 19, 2021, 06:38:02 pm »

Oh, whaaaaat, you get a power that is unknown and you do nothing with it? Awwww.

I barely had time to engage with the game, and it wasn't at all easy to keep up with, so I stand by not touching the questionably-useful power that would make me hated the next day.

There's actually no roles that care about human or cylon (I guess LL's, but theirs also detects), so this power seems a bit useless...I guess we're supposed to exile cylons?

I think we expect a decent correlation between who's a cylon and who's cylon-aligned in this first game. In particular, I think the main thing that stops this power being more useful is the risk of human-aligned cylons, and I think we've already seen one of those flip because of Boomer. It's much less common to have cylon-aligned humans in the show, but Baltar and Helo are two that I could imagine in that boat in some scenarios. Let's just test people other than Baltar and Helo for cylon-ness first.
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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1516 on: April 19, 2021, 06:48:51 pm »

I am in perfect agreement with the group, except the question should be "are there at least 2 cylon-aligned players in the group". This way we get to exile in the group that has the most amount of scum right off the bat, and after a scum flip we have 2 groups, each of them have 1 scum.

I think the only difference between what I said and what Space said is that instead of doing a 0/1 cylons group and a 2/3 cylon group, Space does a 0/2 cylon group and a 1/3 cylon group. I'm not sure how this added complexity helps us. I'd wager that knowing where the majority of scum are is enough of an upside to do my suggestion over Space's suggestion.

Wait a second: Space, shouldn't the group with Dylan be the bigger one?

Are you assuming exactly three cylon-aligned players to make "at least two" a useful question? While I think that's likely, I don't like just assuming it as a starting point for anything.

I definitely don't agree that these are the right groups if that's the style of question you want to ask, because I think the expected number of cylon players in the testing group is far below 2, and my entire point was that we get the best information when we ask a question where we're exactly 50/50 on whether the answer will be yes or no. I think what you're suggesting is a strictly worse use of information, from an information-theoretic standpoint. Either you're arguing that optimal use of the question is too hard for you/town to reason with so you don't want to be maximally townie, or you're arguing against wikipedia saying that setting both groups to p=0.5 is the best we can do for info on a one-bit test.

(Also, you're incorrect about your statement that after a scum flip, we have one scum in each pool, because your scenario doesn't distinguish between there being 2 scum in the test group or all three, whereas mine is explicitly set up to cope with telling differences like that, which will be useful for town later, and even more useful if we also add in the exactly-three-cylon-aligned-players constraint that you're silently assuming, since it would let us know that an odd number in the testing group means an even number in the remainder group and vice versa).
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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1517 on: April 19, 2021, 06:58:41 pm »

I agree that if there is anyone else who had control of the cylon tester, they should claim now.

If they don't, fairly safe assumption that either MiX is lying or the hidden person is not town.

I don't think anyone else claimed this so far, so Ash is probably right one way or another about this...

ppe for this line: Read the ppes and just saw Space hard claim as the other person, so ignore, but I'm not deleting.

This is a little bit random, but I’m going to kind of claim one of my powers because it could be helpful. I could ascertain whether or not ADK’s wincon is compatible with town’s. It’s a one shot power, and it’s not limited to just that question, but the answer can’t be tampered with, so I would know it’s truthful. If he can win with town, we should definitely try to find scum today instead of that, but if he’s 3rd party that straight up can’t win with town, it’s probably not a bad idea to eliminate him earlier rather than later.

I’ll wait for opinions before actually taking an action. Also, my understanding is that I can use it  any time during the game as opposed to at night, so if I’m not mistaken we can know that before EOD.

If your power can really be used for that, then I'm in favor of it being used for it

This power could rule out serial killer, but ADK being something like a survivor isn't all that comforting. They could still side against town at any moment. We know they are not exclusively town-aligned, or they wouldn't be a third party. So it's just ruling out their being completely evil. People with those roles don't tend to want as much attention as ADK has drawn on themself.

It would help to hear more about your power if you can do it without quoting.

Just putting this here to maybe reference later if something is there that I think might be there as I'm reading through.

This is a little bit random, but I’m going to kind of claim one of my powers because it could be helpful. I could ascertain whether or not ADK’s wincon is compatible with town’s. It’s a one shot power, and it’s not limited to just that question, but the answer can’t be tampered with, so I would know it’s truthful. If he can win with town, we should definitely try to find scum today instead of that, but if he’s 3rd party that straight up can’t win with town, it’s probably not a bad idea to eliminate him earlier rather than later.

I’ll wait for opinions before actually taking an action. Also, my understanding is that I can use it  any time during the game as opposed to at night, so if I’m not mistaken we can know that before EOD.

If your power can really be used for that, then I'm in favor of it being used for it

Hmm.. I'm not so sure that's optimal if the shot really can just take any player and say whether their wincon is compatible with town's.

We already have a lot of information on ADK's interactions. If ADK flips as something that isn't compatible with our town wincon, then we can be very suspicious of the players who've exhibited strong levels of trust in ADK, like MiX and Didds. In terms of webs of trust and who's scum conditional on our reads of other people, I think ADK already has a lot of evidence, and as people who've interacted with ADK flip, we'll naturally build up a better picture of how much to trust them.

Compare that to someone like Jack or Robz, about whom we know absolutely nothing, have no reads, and no interactions to speak of. Surely it's better to use a shot on Robz, because that way we keep our vague partial info on ADK, get full alignment reassurance on Robz, and end up with more information than if we only used the shot to top up that partial info on ADK.

Also, on the off-chance this is a scum!Dylan plan to cement some trust in scum!ADK, I think it's advantageous for town not to go along with the plan unchallenged.

PPE 1: EFHW, yes, I agree with that too, though I also think that in general it's better if we're hunting cylon-aligned players than third parties, especially now the third party has been outed.

Replying to the bolded parts.  So earlier in the game before it was claimed that ADK was 3rd party, I was townreading ADK more than I was most people, which influenced something I did at night before all that.  It is not pro-town to give more details on that action other than: it potentially has legacy implications depending on certain game end-states, but the effects/potential gain that I may get if those conditions are fulfilled do not outweigh the benefits of winning this current game. As such I would set aside pursuit of those goals if needed to win, and the certainty figuring out ADK's wincon would bring to that would have made it much easier to know whether or not it would actually be possible to reach such end states. This is why I wanted clarity on ADK specifically when I had the idea. I did realize that there was potentially a more useful way to use my power, which is why I presented it to get feedback instead of just using it for my own knowledge.  Also, if I were scum trying to help scum!ADK, this isn't how I would have down it. A fake rolecop claim with a result for as helpful a 3rd party role as you could find for town result on them for one, or just using that power as I described but sharing the answer instead of giving town veto power over how I use it.

Quote
especially now the third party has been outed.
from the ppe on Space's post I just talked about.  It may be nothing, but I just caught the assumption that there was only one 3rd party implicit to this comment. It might be NAI, but it's at least worth pointing out.

I’m happy for dylan to test me if we want to start on the Jack wagon

This is mildly towny for Didds, because even a Godfather presumably would be truthfully revealed by this not being a targeted cop shot, which is the normal concern for someone volunteering to be investigated, unless they are actually a Godfather and didn't realize that ability wouldn't help here. So more likely towny, but if scum!Didds, it's role-indicative.

Like someone else already said, maybe Space, it seems weird to me that Dylan thought ADK would be the best use of his power. Hoping we'll hear back from him soon.

Yeah, I explained why above. Also, EFHW seems to be engaging more with me over this than most.

I don't agree with mass-claiming yet, for two main reasons:

1. We're definitely not as far through this game as we would expect to be in terms of the number of nights and the number of posts. We're maybe in a D3 sort of scenario, and sure, that's when in a normal game we might start to consider claims, but with all the extra mechanics, I think this game already has lots of info that we can work our way through (e.g. the discussion that we started around Dylan's claimed power) before we have to resort to that.

2. The push for claims is being let by a small subset of the game, one of whom is claimed non-town, so I think it at least needs more discussion before people go ahead and claim.

I'm fine scum-reading Robz a bit more for just going along with it. He's either utterly disengaged town, or he's scum and this is a scum-driven ploy to move us away from a scenario where we have more discussion around using Dylan's supposed power on Robz instead of on ADK. I'm also not sure what to make of the fact that Robz is claiming powers without claiming a character name, when my understanding of full-claiming was definitely that the role name would be entirely relevant to claim.

Ah yes, discussion, that thing town's been doing this game.

It's day 4. We either have already lost, or someone out there has something akin to a result.

The game is a small subset of the game: there's too many people that aren't active for a town consensus to work. But I'm not going to wait for dylan to come back, it's just not reliable enough: if we are waiting for people to talk before doing things, we will end the day doing nothing, just like we did D1 and D2.

I, too, am scumreading Robz for the no details his claim has, and how he just went ahead and did it.

Fatalistic MiX is unfortunately town MiX if my memory of a couple past games is correct...

I don't care about this game anymore. I did for a brief moment when I realized I was still alive. I don't anymore, town does not give a fuck about anything and this game is too slow for anyone to agree on anything.

Vote: Robz, X-2

Reinforcing the former.

Ok, a little bit more detail about my power. I can basically come up with a yes no question in my QT and then get a truthful answer. So what if we did something like any of the set {x y z} (cylon-aligned/not human-aligned)? (parenthetical options for if you want to filter out 3rd party or include them in the results)

I could probably ask something setup related too if there was a more helpful bit of info we could come up with, but I feel like using it as a weird cop might be most directly helpful right now. That would at least give us some results to work with right now since no one else has rushed forwards with anything yet.

Ask if your top scumread is cylon-aligned. Ask if at least 1 of your 2 top scumreads are cylon-aligned. Ask if there's at least 2 cylon-aligned players in my D3 wagon (by explicitly naming people). Ask if there's at least 2 cylon-aligned players in the Jack D3 wagon. Ask if Jack is cylon-aligned.

Or are any of the viper pilots cylon-aligned? If so, y’all could off us one by one.

Interesting that Didds again volunteers to be in the test group basically.

Or was any member of the jury cylon-aligned?

At first I liked this idea because it would give info on the group and then might have implications for MiX, but then I remembered on acquittal was from 3rd party!ADK and Space didn't even get a chance to weigh in before the decision, so the only person which would give results on them and possibly MiX would be Didds. Wait, Didds proposed that. Ok, that's 3 times volunteering to be in the test group... That's suspicious, even though I don't know what scum ability could conceal or mess with this ability.

Insert quote: Space's detailed plan

I think I like this the most of all the ideas. Either Space is brilliantly manipulating things to be as little help to town as possible (possible *cough*Space Gambit*cough*), or this is about as good a plan as we are going to get unless just a straight up result on someone actually would be better for us.

One notable change to the groups proposed though - I'm not going to include myself in the testing group, because:
A) I'm town and won't affect parity of the results, so me being in the group is pointless.
B) If I was scum, then you shouldn't trust the results at all anyway, so me being in the group is pointless.

So Space, with that knowledge, who would you move from the remainder to the test group in my place?

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MiX

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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1518 on: April 19, 2021, 07:01:51 pm »

I am in perfect agreement with the group, except the question should be "are there at least 2 cylon-aligned players in the group". This way we get to exile in the group that has the most amount of scum right off the bat, and after a scum flip we have 2 groups, each of them have 1 scum.

I think the only difference between what I said and what Space said is that instead of doing a 0/1 cylons group and a 2/3 cylon group, Space does a 0/2 cylon group and a 1/3 cylon group. I'm not sure how this added complexity helps us. I'd wager that knowing where the majority of scum are is enough of an upside to do my suggestion over Space's suggestion.

Wait a second: Space, shouldn't the group with Dylan be the bigger one?

Are you assuming exactly three cylon-aligned players to make "at least two" a useful question? While I think that's likely, I don't like just assuming it as a starting point for anything.

I definitely don't agree that these are the right groups if that's the style of question you want to ask, because I think the expected number of cylon players in the testing group is far below 2, and my entire point was that we get the best information when we ask a question where we're exactly 50/50 on whether the answer will be yes or no. I think what you're suggesting is a strictly worse use of information, from an information-theoretic standpoint. Either you're arguing that optimal use of the question is too hard for you/town to reason with so you don't want to be maximally townie, or you're arguing against wikipedia saying that setting both groups to p=0.5 is the best we can do for info on a one-bit test.

(Also, you're incorrect about your statement that after a scum flip, we have one scum in each pool, because your scenario doesn't distinguish between there being 2 scum in the test group or all three, whereas mine is explicitly set up to cope with telling differences like that, which will be useful for town later, and even more useful if we also add in the exactly-three-cylon-aligned-players constraint that you're silently assuming, since it would let us know that an odd number in the testing group means an even number in the remainder group and vice versa).

In what way shape or form is asking if there's an even amount of scum in a 4 player group (not counting Dylan) a 50/50 chance? Odd is much more likely.
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MiX

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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1519 on: April 19, 2021, 07:05:23 pm »

To compound on what I just said: I think splitting town in half and asking if there's at least 2 cylon-aligned players in one of the groups is a 50/50 question, so yes, I do agree with the concept of entropy and how you should ask questions, I just don't see how yours accomplishes that.

PPE Dylan: yeah, I get tired of the game after a month as either alignment usually, the game gets that much harder and I play in a way that tires myself quickly. I guess I don't show it as scum often enough.

Do you have any other power besides 1-shot question and legacy related thing?
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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1520 on: April 19, 2021, 08:20:36 pm »

One notable change to the groups proposed though - I'm not going to include myself in the testing group, because:
A) I'm town and won't affect parity of the results, so me being in the group is pointless.
B) If I was scum, then you shouldn't trust the results at all anyway, so me being in the group is pointless.

So Space, with that knowledge, who would you move from the remainder to the test group in my place?

I was deliberate in including you with the "maybe-IC" testing group, because we absolutely can't use the test information if we don't think you're townie, so I'd prefer you to stay there, to balance numbers a bit.

I'm not sure whether or not we ought to move anyone else up in your place if you did decide to take yourself out, though... we want to keep the chance of one cylon-aligned player to be more or less the same as the chance of no cylon-aligned players (plus the chance of having two of them), and right now with that set I'm more or less comfortable that I couldn't tell which way the coin flip would go.

Also, I'm getting really tired and should already be asleep, so I trust two-hours-ago me rather more than current-me right now.
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Dylan32

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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1521 on: April 19, 2021, 08:38:00 pm »

One notable change to the groups proposed though - I'm not going to include myself in the testing group, because:
A) I'm town and won't affect parity of the results, so me being in the group is pointless.
B) If I was scum, then you shouldn't trust the results at all anyway, so me being in the group is pointless.

So Space, with that knowledge, who would you move from the remainder to the test group in my place?

I was deliberate in including you with the "maybe-IC" testing group, because we absolutely can't use the test information if we don't think you're townie, so I'd prefer you to stay there, to balance numbers a bit.

I'm not sure whether or not we ought to move anyone else up in your place if you did decide to take yourself out, though... we want to keep the chance of one cylon-aligned player to be more or less the same as the chance of no cylon-aligned players (plus the chance of having two of them), and right now with that set I'm more or less comfortable that I couldn't tell which way the coin flip would go.

Also, I'm getting really tired and should already be asleep, so I trust two-hours-ago me rather more than current-me right now.

My point is it's completely pointless to include me anywhere in the analysis. If I'm telling the truth, me being in it doesn't add anything useful, and if I'm not then it's obviously useless. If the division of the other players is the way you would think makes sense whether I'm in the group or not, we wouldn't have to move anyone. Oh, and in case there was any confusion on this, the question and results are specifically in my QT, which adds to the "Do I trust Dylan here" element of it. If it were publicly answered, then yes, I would include myself in the group, but as it is, you either trust that I'm relaying a truthful answer (in which case me being in doesn't matter), you don't (in which case the whole thing doesn't really matter), or I flip later and it confirms my answer as truthful without me having to be in it).

Does anyone else have thoughts about groups or subsets of 4-5 to test that would go along with the logic Space was thinking? I tend to agree that the longer term PoE level info would be a better use than a direct pseudo cop result in the moment, so if someone completely disagrees with this approach say so. I'll probably wait until tomorrow afternoon to actually ask my question and I'll post here before I do it.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1522 on: April 19, 2021, 09:21:30 pm »

In what way shape or form is asking if there's an even amount of scum in a 4 player group (not counting Dylan) a 50/50 chance? Odd is much more likely.

What I'm going for is P(n==0)+P(n==2) ~= P(n==1)+P(n==3), i.e. the chance of having zero or two scum is more or less the same as having 1 or 3 scum. You can even add in more scum if you want to be thorough about covering all the game combinations. So mostly it's asking whether, in a townie-reading group, we have 0 or 1, with a small chance of 2. Since 0 counts as even, then 0 ought to be almost as likely as 1. If we really do have zero, our whole test group is kind of IC'd if Dylan ever does flip green, unless we start suspecting later that we're in the much-less-likely 2-scum scenario, but I think the natural gameplay will take care of that, and it's a very precarious position for scum to play in.

For one possible difference between the two variants of the question ("even/odd" vs "at least 2 in X"), consider a case where there are currently only two cylon-aligned players (e.g. because Awaclus didn't join them maybe?), and we have one in the testing set and one in the remainder. If we do a parity-based test, we at least realise there's only one in the test set (or an exceedingly unlikely three), whereas from the "at least 2" test we're left with knowing there's 0-1 on the test side and any number at all on the remainder. I don't think this is so unlikely a scenario, though I do agree that I think three scum overall is more likely.

@Dylan, I'm really quite confident that parity (i.e. the odd/even question) is more informative than any "at least X" test, but I'm also feeling that I'm unlikely to convince MiX at this time of night. Honestly, I can just think of too many maths puzzles where parity is a stronger way of doing things.

If we want to split the player group in two a different way, one alternative I thought of was to split us into a slightly-scummier five and a townier six, then to ask whether there are strictly more cylon-aligned people in the bigger group than the smaller one, but I'm not sure whether that's as good.
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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1523 on: April 19, 2021, 09:31:42 pm »

My point is it's completely pointless to include me anywhere in the analysis.

Yeah, I agree. It helped my thinking to assume you were townie and place you  accordingly while reasoning it out. Who's your most-townie guess from the remainder set?

I'll probably wait until tomorrow afternoon to actually ask my question and I'll post here before I do it.

Deadline is about 36 hours out, and while it's after 9pm FT now, there's zero chance of me being awake this late tomorrow: today I was so exhausted I had an after-work nap, whereas tomorrow I'm more or less non-stop busy all day already.

I think MiX, Jack and I are all on FT+5, and Ash is something like FT+15, so as we approach deadline it's worth considering availability of people to react to the result and vote accordingly enough to get an actual exile through.
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Re: RMM59: Battlestar Galactica Legacy - Season 1 (Day 4)
« Reply #1524 on: April 19, 2021, 09:43:11 pm »

My point is it's completely pointless to include me anywhere in the analysis.

Yeah, I agree. It helped my thinking to assume you were townie and place you  accordingly while reasoning it out. Who's your most-townie guess from the remainder set?

I'll probably wait until tomorrow afternoon to actually ask my question and I'll post here before I do it.

Deadline is about 36 hours out, and while it's after 9pm FT now, there's zero chance of me being awake this late tomorrow: today I was so exhausted I had an after-work nap, whereas tomorrow I'm more or less non-stop busy all day already.

I think MiX, Jack and I are all on FT+5, and Ash is something like FT+15, so as we approach deadline it's worth considering availability of people to react to the result and vote accordingly enough to get an actual exile through.

Yeah good call with the deadline being that close. I'll probably post in like 15-18ish hours after I wake up when I first get on my computer so that there's most of a day for people to react.
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