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Author Topic: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Game Over! Town Wins Flawlessly!  (Read 60761 times)

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mcmcsalot

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #500 on: December 09, 2020, 08:43:00 pm »

I am either the vig or the ub
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gkrieg13

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #501 on: December 09, 2020, 10:17:11 pm »

Cool. That makes both me and mcmc ICs.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #502 on: December 09, 2020, 10:20:17 pm »

This is so exciting!!
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #503 on: December 09, 2020, 10:35:55 pm »

Coolio

vote: space
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #504 on: December 10, 2020, 06:37:40 am »

I’ll put in some dedicated rereading a little later today.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #505 on: December 10, 2020, 07:28:51 am »

Vote: ADK

a. They came into this game day with a weak wagon-based case on me and gkrieg, without any comment about what the brand new flip info can do for us.

b. They're laying a clear set-up for a wiggle-room claim by saying "I'm not responsible for the second kill last night" instead of just outright "not a vig", like the rest of us have been saying. It's kind of set up to hint at a claim of being a second vig.

c. They're also making hints about a cop, but if we do have a cop, then having a second vig (see point b) is super-unlikely, because it would require a no-T roll, and then for bulletproof to have landed randomly on the one scum we haven't flipped yet.

Beyond that, I think Didds's position on both correct scum exiles means she's very unlikely to be scum, and my only other two options are MiX and ADK. Wagon-wise, ADK being scum would mean they held a pretty good bus on Galz early D1, which was what I'd assigned them D2 townpoints for after Galz's exile, but I'd even been observing late in D2 that actually their play has been more picky and critical rather than being focused on scum-catching.
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MiX

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #506 on: December 10, 2020, 08:20:39 am »

Vote: ADK

I was thinking the exact same thing. Not sure what else I can say.
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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #507 on: December 10, 2020, 09:23:00 am »

Vote: ADK

a. They came into this game day with a weak wagon-based case on me and gkrieg, without any comment about what the brand new flip info can do for us.

b. They're laying a clear set-up for a wiggle-room claim by saying "I'm not responsible for the second kill last night" instead of just outright "not a vig", like the rest of us have been saying. It's kind of set up to hint at a claim of being a second vig.

c. They're also making hints about a cop, but if we do have a cop, then having a second vig (see point b) is super-unlikely, because it would require a no-T roll, and then for bulletproof to have landed randomly on the one scum we haven't flipped yet.

Beyond that, I think Didds's position on both correct scum exiles means she's very unlikely to be scum, and my only other two options are MiX and ADK. Wagon-wise, ADK being scum would mean they held a pretty good bus on Galz early D1, which was what I'd assigned them D2 townpoints for after Galz's exile, but I'd even been observing late in D2 that actually their play has been more picky and critical rather than being focused on scum-catching.

a) I call it a pretty good care, and I don't see how two VT flips give us a ton of more info

b) my claim gives the important information for town while concealing information from scum

c) when I was talking about the cop, it was at a point that I realized that having a cop claim an innocent result on me, even if it was a scum fakeclaim, would guarantee town victory

d) how is arguing against wagons on town not scum hunting? POE is a powerful tool, and I generally find it easier to figure out who I think is town and go from there
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #508 on: December 10, 2020, 09:23:37 am »

Vote: ADK

I was thinking the exact same thing. Not sure what else I can say.

Which part were you thinking?
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #509 on: December 10, 2020, 09:32:38 am »

I just realized something, and I hate to go back to setup talk, but if the vig is a one-shot then a fullclaim at this point solves the game
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #510 on: December 10, 2020, 09:34:24 am »

No, nevermind, I'm dumb
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gkrieg13

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #511 on: December 10, 2020, 01:24:32 pm »

Obviously we win if any of the non-ICs are anything other than VT, claim as such, and we believe them. But my guess is that we are in MMVVTT and that we just have the one full vig.

I'm basically between ADK and MiX right now.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #512 on: December 10, 2020, 01:26:05 pm »

I'm surprised that ADK is sticking to their original case on space, and not trying to expand on it any more. It just seems too flimsy for ADK.

I also still think that MiX's D1 is very scummy, and that he would very easily be bold enough to try to get people to not vote for galz.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #513 on: December 10, 2020, 01:27:53 pm »

I've been following through a few hypotheticals:

If ADK is scum:
1. Busses Galz really early (3rd post of the game), and stays there in spite of Galz becoming an early bigest wagon at 3 votes while nobody else had more than 1 for much of that time.
2. Was the last to leave the early Galz wagon, after Raptor and faust had moved their votes elsewhere.
3. Moves briefly to Dylan, then to mcmc, where they end the day not on the Galz wagon.
4. D2, spends most of the day on gkrieg, beore moving to LL in the X-1 position when the exile looked inevitable.
5. Opens D3 going back to gkrieg, not even really acknowledging any of the extra info the 3 intervening flips gave us.


If MiX is scum:
1. Spends most of D1 on mcmc from as early as #42, which was only the 12th post of the whole game.
2. Moves off a three-person mcmc wagon (the leading alternative to the 5-person Galz wagon) to bus LL at #203.
3. Moves back to mcmc at #220 to end D1 there, with a lot of arguing about why exiling Galz is a bad idea.
4. Spends almost all of D2 on EFHW, with a slight blip of unvoting from #426 to #429. Motable that MiX says at #426 mcmc-vs-LL looks like town-v-town though.
5. Joins the LL wagon at X-2 at #448, where Raptor hammers at #468. (EFHW and I were also around and stating willingness to vote, from scum's perspective, byt the time X-2 happened, LL was basically going to get exiled, so being x-2 rather than X-1 isn't any less scummy really).


If Didds is scum:
1. Took a long time to commit to any wagon. Finally voted for scum!Galz when mcmc and I were both on three votes each and I had a protest vote on Didds herself. I just don't see scum!Didds going for a needless bus there when there were good voting possibilities.
2. She's around and engages in discussion about why an absent-Galz exile is okay, and also about who to look to for a sub, but ultimately doesn't use any of that as an excuse to move her vote, even though her suggestion of asking Joth or Glooble to sub happens at #219, when Galz was on 5 votes.
3. In fact, LL joins the Galz wagon at #202, because presumably it looked inevitable for scum by then. If LL and Didds have instead moved to Mcmc, the wagons would be level, which would have been way better for scum.
4. Didds was on a 5-person town!mcmc wagon in D2, but when that shrank to 4, she moved onto third place on the scum!LL wagon, and then stayed there all through the exile.

Well, Didds just doesn't look like scum here at all to me. MiX looks pretty scummy again, especially with the Galz-defending D1 and the throwaway town-v-town comment D2. He was also very willing to join me quickly on ADK in the D3 voting, which set off a little alarm bell for me. So yeah, it's MiX or ADK.
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MiX

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #514 on: December 10, 2020, 02:24:23 pm »

Vote: ADK

I was thinking the exact same thing. Not sure what else I can say.

Which part were you thinking?

The way you came in D3, how you voted D2, not being on the Galz wagon...all of this points to you being the most likely scum. Also that Didds is town.
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #515 on: December 10, 2020, 03:28:15 pm »

I'm surprised that ADK is sticking to their original case on space, and not trying to expand on it any more. It just seems too flimsy for ADK.

I also still think that MiX's D1 is very scummy, and that he would very easily be bold enough to try to get people to not vote for galz.

I mean I'm also pretty sure didds is town, so exiling me, space and mix wins anyway, so I'm not super concerned
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #516 on: December 10, 2020, 03:32:42 pm »

5. Opens D3 going back to gkrieg, not even really acknowledging any of the extra info the 3 intervening flips gave us.

Lalight being scum gave us the info that scum was indeed bussing day one. I thought it was unlikely that scum would be willing to sacrifice another player on day two. I think my case sums up the info we get from the lalight flip pretty nicely

What info does EFHW and Dylan flipping as VTs get us?
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Xxraptorslayer96

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #517 on: December 10, 2020, 03:38:46 pm »

I'm open to an ADK exile
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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #518 on: December 10, 2020, 03:45:19 pm »

Vote Count 3.1:

ADK (2): SpaceAnemone, MiX
SpaceAnemone (1): ADK

Not Voting (4): , gkrieg, MCMC, WestCoastDidds, XxRaptorSlayer96


With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
Day 3 starts now and ends on December 15th at 5:00pm Forum Time.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #519 on: December 10, 2020, 04:21:14 pm »

vote: MiX
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #520 on: December 10, 2020, 09:07:45 pm »

Vote: MiX

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #521 on: December 10, 2020, 11:43:51 pm »

Vote: MiX

That's uncharacteristically terse of you. Do you have any thoughts?
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #522 on: December 11, 2020, 09:33:32 am »

Vote: MiX

That's uncharacteristically terse of you. Do you have any thoughts?

Right? I am turning over new leaves, I tell you.

Really, I wanted to see what MiX might have to say about it.

For me, the decision is between you and MiX. I don't think Space works this hard for town if they aren't town. I don't think that you'd have been cute with the "I am not responsible for the second kill last night" response if you were scum. Not a huge reason, but perhaps enough. MiX, on the other hand, worked fairly hard to prevent the Galz exile, and then came out on D2 saying "I wouldn't have done that if I were scum" except maybe he would. I know he has been busy busy, but he is also way more low key than usual. MiX is a smart and wily player, and between Space and I, low key and friendly play is going to go further for him than being aggro. Finally, MiX well knows that the way to my heart is to make me feel secure. Reasserting that he thinks I am town does that (<3 you, MiXy). So, that's where I'm at.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #523 on: December 11, 2020, 10:31:40 am »

I'm okay switching my vote to MiX, but it would be nice to hear from the other two ICs before we move to end the day, so I'm staying where I am for now.

I know the ICs have worse PoE than the rest of us, but they're guaranteed to have town's best interests at heart, so it seems unwise to make a decision without two out of the three of them weighing in.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #524 on: December 11, 2020, 11:44:52 am »

Agreed
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