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Author Topic: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Game Over! Town Wins Flawlessly!  (Read 60759 times)

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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #475 on: December 08, 2020, 05:51:36 pm »

space and gkrieg are the people who were on galz and not lalight so I think we should start there

vote: gkrieg

What makes this second exile not look like anyone bussed?

Because bussing at that point is just giving up
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #476 on: December 08, 2020, 07:37:08 pm »

I know not everyone likes setup talk, but I think D3 is late enough in the game that we can maybe do a bit. Though I apologise for getting to this a bit too late at night to have time to think everything through as well as just post that it's a thing we should be looking at!

Scum flips:
   Galz: Godfather
   LL: Strongman

Town flips:
   faust: VT
   Dylan: VT
   EFHW: VT

Having 2 deaths in one night means that town has at least one Vig. -> at least one V roll.
We have an IC, which means there's no way our UB converted to a mason, looking at the list of possible M rolls (we must have MM or MMMM).
This means we're guaranteed to have an IC, a UB and a (possibly-shot-limited) Vig, which is three named roles out of 7 players, two of whom have to be unique. (There's technically a tiny chance of VVV leading to one full and one one-shot vig).
Scum only gets a full strongman if we have 0-2 T rolls. That means we can't only have VMMTTT. So either we have a full vig from one of those Ts converting to a V, or we have at least one other town PR out there from the T converting to another (non-M) letter. And then it's possible for either of the other Ts to convert to town-useful roles too!

Anyway, I feel like this is loads of info that we can work with, but I want to be more awake before I finish thinking about whether there's any ridiculous fool-proof strategy for us just to win here...

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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #477 on: December 08, 2020, 08:51:39 pm »

Woot!!

I’m totally here for your set up talk, Space. It’s not my skill, but I’m happy to talk out loud with you.

Mix, did you do the dance?!?
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #478 on: December 08, 2020, 09:07:00 pm »

I know not everyone likes setup talk, but I think D3 is late enough in the game that we can maybe do a bit. Though I apologise for getting to this a bit too late at night to have time to think everything through as well as just post that it's a thing we should be looking at!

Scum flips:
   Galz: Godfather
   LL: Strongman

Town flips:
   faust: VT
   Dylan: VT
   EFHW: VT

Having 2 deaths in one night means that town has at least one Vig. -> at least one V roll.
We have an IC, which means there's no way our UB converted to a mason, looking at the list of possible M rolls (we must have MM or MMMM).
This means we're guaranteed to have an IC, a UB and a (possibly-shot-limited) Vig, which is three named roles out of 7 players, two of whom have to be unique. (There's technically a tiny chance of VVV leading to one full and one one-shot vig).
Scum only gets a full strongman if we have 0-2 T rolls. That means we can't only have VMMTTT. So either we have a full vig from one of those Ts converting to a V, or we have at least one other town PR out there from the T converting to another (non-M) letter. And then it's possible for either of the other Ts to convert to town-useful roles too!

Anyway, I feel like this is loads of info that we can work with, but I want to be more awake before I finish thinking about whether there's any ridiculous fool-proof strategy for us just to win here...

IC + UB + claimed vig + cop with at least one innocent result on a living player would give us 4 confirmed town, which would guarantee victory. So if the last thing exists I believe they should claim
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #479 on: December 08, 2020, 09:19:38 pm »

I've thought through that plan a little more and there's a small wrinkle. But if a cop has an innocent result on me they should definitely claim
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gkrieg13

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #480 on: December 08, 2020, 10:35:49 pm »

I think the issue with anyone claiming is that the last mafia member is the full roleblocker, which would effectively nullify our vig until they are dead and the UB picks up their role.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #481 on: December 08, 2020, 10:36:30 pm »

I think the issue with anyone claiming is that the last mafia member is the full roleblocker, which would effectively nullify our vig until they are dead and the UB picks up their role.

I guess that is only important in the case of a full vig.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #482 on: December 08, 2020, 10:37:55 pm »

I think the issue with anyone claiming is that the last mafia member is the full roleblocker, which would effectively nullify our vig until they are dead and the UB picks up their role.

I guess that is only important in the case of a full vig.

Oh wait, just disregard everything I said. I'm not reading the setup right.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #483 on: December 08, 2020, 10:38:46 pm »

space and gkrieg are the people who were on galz and not lalight so I think we should start there

vote: gkrieg

What makes this second exile not look like anyone bussed?

Because bussing at that point is just giving up

Not necessarily. Their only chance to not have lalight exiled was to exile mcmc earlier in the day I think.
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MiX

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #484 on: December 09, 2020, 07:48:07 am »

Woooo! We're smashing this game so hard! Good job everyone, this game is on track to be perfect!

So I went through the math of this, and we currently have 3 ICs alive. Given one of them is revealed, I see no reason for the others not to claim right now. I propose a plan of claiming I am either the UB or Vig, this gives town what we need to know (ICs) while giving scum the least amount of info (not knowing who to roleblock, in case it's a full vig). I would also say that we shouldn't claim, unless that wins us the game (masons, a cop with a green result on a non-IC (also why it's important to claim who's IC), roleblocker that picked a non-IC), so we can get possibly more info.

Obviously, I'm not either the UB or Vig. Feel free to poke holes at this, there's probably a few, but this should at least be a good strategy.
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MiX

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #485 on: December 09, 2020, 07:55:16 am »

I know not everyone likes setup talk, but I think D3 is late enough in the game that we can maybe do a bit. Though I apologise for getting to this a bit too late at night to have time to think everything through as well as just post that it's a thing we should be looking at!

Scum flips:
   Galz: Godfather
   LL: Strongman

Town flips:
   faust: VT
   Dylan: VT
   EFHW: VT

Having 2 deaths in one night means that town has at least one Vig. -> at least one V roll.
We have an IC, which means there's no way our UB converted to a mason, looking at the list of possible M rolls (we must have MM or MMMM).
This means we're guaranteed to have an IC, a UB and a (possibly-shot-limited) Vig, which is three named roles out of 7 players, two of whom have to be unique. (There's technically a tiny chance of VVV leading to one full and one one-shot vig).
Scum only gets a full strongman if we have 0-2 T rolls. That means we can't only have VMMTTT. So either we have a full vig from one of those Ts converting to a V, or we have at least one other town PR out there from the T converting to another (non-M) letter. And then it's possible for either of the other Ts to convert to town-useful roles too!

Anyway, I feel like this is loads of info that we can work with, but I want to be more awake before I finish thinking about whether there's any ridiculous fool-proof strategy for us just to win here...

This is all true. Thanks for this, or I would've had to say all this in my previous post.

The "ridiculous fool-proof strategy" is really just hoping one of the PRs got anything good, as any one piece of information cracks this game trivially. We can also just win, we have 3 exiles (or at least 3 town-controlled kills) to kill scum out of 4 players, these odds couldn't really be better.

Woot!!

I’m totally here for your set up talk, Space. It’s not my skill, but I’m happy to talk out loud with you.

Mix, did you do the dance?!?

Yeah, it feels good to actually be behind a scum exile instead of defending scum, lol. It felt so rewarding rereading the entire game and coming to the right conclusion.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #486 on: December 09, 2020, 08:00:16 am »

Obviously, I'm not either the UB or Vig. Feel free to poke holes at this, there's probably a few, but this should at least be a good strategy.

The flaw is that only IC and UB are guaranteed to be unique, as I sort of said in my late-night post last night.

It means we could have two vigs (a one-shot and a full vig) and still have a valid game configuration (e.g. TMMVVV). Possibly with other letters instead of that T, though of course we haven't (yet?) seen a scum flip bullet-proof, so there's a lower chance...

I've started doing a bit more thinking, and also modifying my Asher9++ code to give me exact numbers on possible game setups, but unfortunately I find myself with a very busy day, so I'll come back to it when I get the chance.
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MiX

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #487 on: December 09, 2020, 08:09:35 am »

Well...the full vig will be an IC tomorrow if they're not roleblocked. Assuming they both claim to have shot today, otherwise only one of them is an IC, and everything's fine. This feels like a very edge-case scenario that should be pretty unlikely to happen.
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #488 on: December 09, 2020, 08:22:42 am »

Woooo! We're smashing this game so hard! Good job everyone, this game is on track to be perfect!

So I went through the math of this, and we currently have 3 ICs alive. Given one of them is revealed, I see no reason for the others not to claim right now. I propose a plan of claiming I am either the UB or Vig, this gives town what we need to know (ICs) while giving scum the least amount of info (not knowing who to roleblock, in case it's a full vig). I would also say that we shouldn't claim, unless that wins us the game (masons, a cop with a green result on a non-IC (also why it's important to claim who's IC), roleblocker that picked a non-IC), so we can get possibly more info.

Obviously, I'm not either the UB or Vig. Feel free to poke holes at this, there's probably a few, but this should at least be a good strategy.

I'm not the UB and I'm not responsible for the second kill last night
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gkrieg13

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #489 on: December 09, 2020, 11:29:17 am »

Obviously, I'm not either the UB or Vig. Feel free to poke holes at this, there's probably a few, but this should at least be a good strategy.

The flaw is that only IC and UB are guaranteed to be unique, as I sort of said in my late-night post last night.

It means we could have two vigs (a one-shot and a full vig) and still have a valid game configuration (e.g. TMMVVV). Possibly with other letters instead of that T, though of course we haven't (yet?) seen a scum flip bullet-proof, so there's a lower chance...

I've started doing a bit more thinking, and also modifying my Asher9++ code to give me exact numbers on possible game setups, but unfortunately I find myself with a very busy day, so I'll come back to it when I get the chance.

I don't think scum flip bullet-proof.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #490 on: December 09, 2020, 11:30:09 am »

Obviously, I'm not either the UB or Vig. Feel free to poke holes at this, there's probably a few, but this should at least be a good strategy.

The flaw is that only IC and UB are guaranteed to be unique, as I sort of said in my late-night post last night.

It means we could have two vigs (a one-shot and a full vig) and still have a valid game configuration (e.g. TMMVVV). Possibly with other letters instead of that T, though of course we haven't (yet?) seen a scum flip bullet-proof, so there's a lower chance...

I've started doing a bit more thinking, and also modifying my Asher9++ code to give me exact numbers on possible game setups, but unfortunately I find myself with a very busy day, so I'll come back to it when I get the chance.

I don't think scum flip bullet-proof.

Never mind, it is very clear in the rules that they would.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #491 on: December 09, 2020, 12:54:06 pm »

Never mind, it is very clear in the rules that they would.

You're having kind of a hard time reading the rules today, huh? :-P I just had the whole setup open in a separate tab so I can check it.

Anyway, as a person who's quite capable of getting into setuppy discussions, and also as my fellow person under suspicion (at least as far as ADK claims!), what do you make of MiX's plan?
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gkrieg13

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #492 on: December 09, 2020, 02:41:58 pm »

Never mind, it is very clear in the rules that they would.

You're having kind of a hard time reading the rules today, huh? :-P I just had the whole setup open in a separate tab so I can check it.

Anyway, as a person who's quite capable of getting into setuppy discussions, and also as my fellow person under suspicion (at least as far as ADK claims!), what do you make of MiX's plan?

I've just gotten out of the habit of checking the setup before I post about it...

I think it is unfortunately one of those plans we should either go along with without much discussion, or one that we should discuss and not go along with. As discussing it basically tells scum what to claim. Really, we are just getting rid of our vig (well making it a 50/50 whether they are useless) and trading them for an IC, which might not be too bad a trade.

I also think that us being the only two under suspicion is slightly ridiculous. I think LaLight was acting reasonably scummy, so it would have been very easy for a partner to bus.

I am either the UB or some kind of vigilante
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gkrieg13

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #493 on: December 09, 2020, 02:43:20 pm »

I also have something to say after everyone has claimed [UB or vig] yes/no.
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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #494 on: December 09, 2020, 02:55:41 pm »

Unvote
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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #495 on: December 09, 2020, 02:56:55 pm »

Okay, well I'm neither UB nor any kind of vig.
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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #496 on: December 09, 2020, 02:58:38 pm »

Also I've got a probability list of all the remaining possible configurations, but I'll go along with gkrieg's plan of not discussing stuff more until everyone relevant has claimed.
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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #497 on: December 09, 2020, 03:50:41 pm »

So just mcmc and WCD to claim still.
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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #498 on: December 09, 2020, 07:49:12 pm »

I am neither the UB nor any kind of vig!

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #499 on: December 09, 2020, 07:50:31 pm »

We might need to prod mcmc. He hasn’t been around yet this day.
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