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Author Topic: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Game Over! Town Wins Flawlessly!  (Read 60777 times)

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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #375 on: December 03, 2020, 10:10:47 am »

She said that she didn’t include anyone who voted for someone who hadn’t flipped. I only voted for someone who had flipped, so I was left out. She also left out the votes on Galz from other folks on his wagon at the end, and ADKs vote on Galz earlier in the day. She was only looking at the votes on people still unknown to try to build a sense of interactions.

Wow, thanks for that summary, Didds! I was getting worried that I might be talking gibberish, because I'm feeling super-frustrated at MiX repeatedly accusing me of being wrong when it seems more likely that he just got it into his head that I was doing something different (based on early/late voting maybe?) than I actually was trying to do, and therefore wasn't open to any evidence based on actual reality :-P

Either that, or MiX is genuinely being difficult over that one little bussing point I made because he's scum and wants to focus conversation on something minor that might even end up being misleading...
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MiX

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #376 on: December 03, 2020, 10:20:21 am »

She said that she didn’t include anyone who voted for someone who hadn’t flipped. I only voted for someone who had flipped, so I was left out. She also left out the votes on Galz from other folks on his wagon at the end, and ADKs vote on Galz earlier in the day. She was only looking at the votes on people still unknown to try to build a sense of interactions.

Wow, thanks for that summary, Didds! I was getting worried that I might be talking gibberish, because I'm feeling super-frustrated at MiX repeatedly accusing me of being wrong when it seems more likely that he just got it into his head that I was doing something different (based on early/late voting maybe?) than I actually was trying to do, and therefore wasn't open to any evidence based on actual reality :-P

Either that, or MiX is genuinely being difficult over that one little bussing point I made because he's scum and wants to focus conversation on something minor that might even end up being misleading...

I'm still confused, but I guess that's just me.
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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #377 on: December 03, 2020, 10:22:26 am »

She said that she didn’t include anyone who voted for someone who hadn’t flipped. I only voted for someone who had flipped, so I was left out. She also left out the votes on Galz from other folks on his wagon at the end, and ADKs vote on Galz earlier in the day. She was only looking at the votes on people still unknown to try to build a sense of interactions.

Wow, thanks for that summary, Didds! I was getting worried that I might be talking gibberish, because I'm feeling super-frustrated at MiX repeatedly accusing me of being wrong when it seems more likely that he just got it into his head that I was doing something different (based on early/late voting maybe?) than I actually was trying to do, and therefore wasn't open to any evidence based on actual reality :-P

This actually sounds a bit like MiX ahem
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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #378 on: December 03, 2020, 10:31:49 am »

Someone might have already said this - I couldn't find it though - LL is in the scummiest position on wagon. He was the last in 5 votes for Galzria that took place from 190-203.

I was going to say gkrieg looks towny in his vote, since the mcmc wagon was up to three and he could have voted there. But if all three are scum, voting Galz was the best move. So if mcmc flips scum, I'll want to look again at gkrieg.

I don't feel like Dylan did justice to my case on mcmc. Not sure what to make of that.

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Dylan32

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #379 on: December 03, 2020, 10:42:57 am »

She said that she didn’t include anyone who voted for someone who hadn’t flipped. I only voted for someone who had flipped, so I was left out. She also left out the votes on Galz from other folks on his wagon at the end, and ADKs vote on Galz earlier in the day. She was only looking at the votes on people still unknown to try to build a sense of interactions.

Wow, thanks for that summary, Didds! I was getting worried that I might be talking gibberish, because I'm feeling super-frustrated at MiX repeatedly accusing me of being wrong when it seems more likely that he just got it into his head that I was doing something different (based on early/late voting maybe?) than I actually was trying to do, and therefore wasn't open to any evidence based on actual reality :-P

Either that, or MiX is genuinely being difficult over that one little bussing point I made because he's scum and wants to focus conversation on something minor that might even end up being misleading...

I'm still confused, but I guess that's just me.

Space only looked at still unflipped voter voting for still unflipped target. That would exclude any votes for or by faust and galz, since they have both flipped. It's not super complicated. Now, having said that, I'm actually not sure there's enough information to support any conclusions space was trying to make in this post.

It's sort of interesting that the off-wagon people were much more present. EFHW also posted in the middle of Galz's wall of posts, at #251, so she could have chosen to hammer but didn't. MiX and ADK both posted within minutes of the hammer, hadn't posted before that.

I think MiX and mcmc are emerging as people who are looking suspicious now. The former for trying so hard not to exile Galz, and the latter for being so decisive about exiling him.

Interestingly, I feel like it's unlikely they're both scummy, because MiX moved his vote from LL, who'd been on two votes, onto mcmc, putting him to three votes. I don't think scum!MiX tries to detract from scum!Galz's wagon by growing a wagon on scum!mcmc instead.

Also, looking at possible D1 bussing off-wagon, there's really not a lot of scope for it if I also assume that MiX and mcmc aren't scum together. ADK was on the first incarnation of the Galz wagon, and later also voted Dylan and mcmc. EFHW voted mcmc. Dylan voted LL. Those are the only cases of unknown-on-unknown voting, from my point of view. It makes me recall that some scum teams decide explicitly not to bus in D1, so it's worth considering that we might be in that sort of a situation here, in which case maybe there's not a lot of on-wagon bussing either.

I'm not sure that helps us much at all here, but I want to put it out there. The consequences would make mcmc look a bit more townie (since he picked up many of the unknown votes), and MiX and possibly LL look more likely to be scum. However, I doubt scum was counting on Galz going down so hard at the end, and it's true that at least one of them would almost certainly have benefitted from bussing if they were able, so this reasoning is probably a bit far out there to rely on.

So the unknown on unknown votes were MiX->LL, mcmc; ADK->Dylan, mcmc; EFHW->mcmc; Dylan->LL; and whatever votes Space did but didn't list here. The simple fact is, 6+space's votes just isn't enough to say anything about whether scum had a no bussing policy in place for D1. Space does admittedly say "I'm not sure how that helps us much at all here," but then proceeds to defend mcmc a bit and shade MiX and LL, which is strange because mcmc received 3 votes and LL received 2, so I would think from this LL would be included with mcmc rather than MiX, who voted for both LL and mcmc. Actually, that inconsistency sounds just like Space was talking just to make up something to talk about and trying to make up conclusions to fit the narrative they wanted rather than looking at what they were posting.

vote: Space
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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #380 on: December 03, 2020, 10:45:16 am »

Someone might have already said this - I couldn't find it though - LL is in the scummiest position on wagon. He was the last in 5 votes for Galzria that took place from 190-203.

I was going to say gkrieg looks towny in his vote, since the mcmc wagon was up to three and he could have voted there. But if all three are scum, voting Galz was the best move. So if mcmc flips scum, I'll want to look again at gkrieg.

I don't feel like Dylan did justice to my case on mcmc. Not sure what to make of that.

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If you think I didn't, I'll go back and read it again real quick.
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #381 on: December 03, 2020, 10:55:24 am »

@ADK: At 144 you were the only one voting Galz. Then you voted Dylan at 159 and mcmc at 189, both before the flood of votes for Galz that started at 190. Why did you leave Galz and why didn't you go back?

I left galz because the day was going slowly and I was hoping to get something to happen. I didn't go back because I was hoping for something more interesting than a lurker exile
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #382 on: December 03, 2020, 11:20:41 am »

So the unknown on unknown votes were MiX->LL, mcmc; ADK->Dylan, mcmc; EFHW->mcmc; Dylan->LL; and whatever votes Space did but didn't list here. The simple fact is, 6+space's votes just isn't enough to say anything about whether scum had a no bussing policy in place for D1. Space does admittedly say "I'm not sure how that helps us much at all here," but then proceeds to defend mcmc a bit and shade MiX and LL, which is strange because mcmc received 3 votes and LL received 2, so I would think from this LL would be included with mcmc rather than MiX, who voted for both LL and mcmc.

Okay, you're missing the point slightly, but you actually have pointed out that I missed one possible bussing vote, which seemed to be the thing MiX was trying hard to accuse me of but messing up on :-P I missed ADK's brief stint voting for Dylan from #158-188.

It changes very little, but it does change the thing Dylan seems to be objecting to most, which was my conclusion about there being one scum in {mcmc,LL} if there was any off-wagon bussing at all. That's because I was counting all pairs (outside of the Galz wagon) that could still be a scum-on-scum vote. While I found five, all five of them contained either mcmc or LL, hence my statement about either having a scum in {mcmc,LL} or no off-wagon bussing. I was literally summarising the pairs in a concise way, and not injecting any opinion. It wasn't about anything as complicated as counting who was voted for how many times, or trying to spin things for a particular argument, which is what Dylan seems to be implying in the comment above.

However, when you add that sixth pair of ADK-Dylan, then it's no longer possible to pull out a single pair of players such that all the possible pairs contain them, and we'd have to add one or other of ADK and Dylan into the {mcmc,LL} bracket to cover all the bases.

And as I've said a bunch of times, this is a really minor point that just might be interesting later on when there have been more flips. At the end of the day, it's perfectly possible that we saw no off-Galz bussing, plus early or copious on-Galz bussing, and/or that the scum-team wasn't even thinking in terms of bussing at all.


Actually, that inconsistency sounds just like Space was talking just to make up something to talk about and trying to make up conclusions to fit the narrative they wanted rather than looking at what they were posting.

vote: Space

I think you're accusing me of analysing the votes instead of what the people were saying, in which case I'm guilty as charged, because I find it quite informative to look at the votes most of the time, since those are the mechanism through which the game actually operates. It's not like I'm building scum-cases or anything here, and other than missing out on one brief vote, I was only stating factual stuff in a re-organised way that might be a bit easier to think and reason about later, so I'm not sure what hidden scum-agenda you even think that might be serving.
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Dylan32

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #383 on: December 03, 2020, 11:51:31 am »

So the unknown on unknown votes were MiX->LL, mcmc; ADK->Dylan, mcmc; EFHW->mcmc; Dylan->LL; and whatever votes Space did but didn't list here. The simple fact is, 6+space's votes just isn't enough to say anything about whether scum had a no bussing policy in place for D1. Space does admittedly say "I'm not sure how that helps us much at all here," but then proceeds to defend mcmc a bit and shade MiX and LL, which is strange because mcmc received 3 votes and LL received 2, so I would think from this LL would be included with mcmc rather than MiX, who voted for both LL and mcmc.

Okay, you're missing the point slightly, but you actually have pointed out that I missed one possible bussing vote, which seemed to be the thing MiX was trying hard to accuse me of but messing up on :-P I missed ADK's brief stint voting for Dylan from #158-188.

It changes very little, but it does change the thing Dylan seems to be objecting to most, which was my conclusion about there being one scum in {mcmc,LL} if there was any off-wagon bussing at all. That's because I was counting all pairs (outside of the Galz wagon) that could still be a scum-on-scum vote. While I found five, all five of them contained either mcmc or LL, hence my statement about either having a scum in {mcmc,LL} or no off-wagon bussing. I was literally summarising the pairs in a concise way, and not injecting any opinion. It wasn't about anything as complicated as counting who was voted for how many times, or trying to spin things for a particular argument, which is what Dylan seems to be implying in the comment above.

However, when you add that sixth pair of ADK-Dylan, then it's no longer possible to pull out a single pair of players such that all the possible pairs contain them, and we'd have to add one or other of ADK and Dylan into the {mcmc,LL} bracket to cover all the bases.

And as I've said a bunch of times, this is a really minor point that just might be interesting later on when there have been more flips. At the end of the day, it's perfectly possible that we saw no off-Galz bussing, plus early or copious on-Galz bussing, and/or that the scum-team wasn't even thinking in terms of bussing at all.


Actually, that inconsistency sounds just like Space was talking just to make up something to talk about and trying to make up conclusions to fit the narrative they wanted rather than looking at what they were posting.

vote: Space

I think you're accusing me of analysing the votes instead of what the people were saying, in which case I'm guilty as charged, because I find it quite informative to look at the votes most of the time, since those are the mechanism through which the game actually operates. It's not like I'm building scum-cases or anything here, and other than missing out on one brief vote, I was only stating factual stuff in a re-organised way that might be a bit easier to think and reason about later, so I'm not sure what hidden scum-agenda you even think that might be serving.

Unless you did so in a completely different post that the one I am referring to (quoted below), you didn't say anything about 1 scum in {LL, mcmc}.

It's sort of interesting that the off-wagon people were much more present. EFHW also posted in the middle of Galz's wall of posts, at #251, so she could have chosen to hammer but didn't. MiX and ADK both posted within minutes of the hammer, hadn't posted before that.

I think MiX and mcmc are emerging as people who are looking suspicious now. The former for trying so hard not to exile Galz, and the latter for being so decisive about exiling him.

Interestingly, I feel like it's unlikely they're both scummy, because MiX moved his vote from LL, who'd been on two votes, onto mcmc, putting him to three votes. I don't think scum!MiX tries to detract from scum!Galz's wagon by growing a wagon on scum!mcmc instead.

Also, looking at possible D1 bussing off-wagon, there's really not a lot of scope for it if I also assume that MiX and mcmc aren't scum together. ADK was on the first incarnation of the Galz wagon, and later also voted Dylan and mcmc. EFHW voted mcmc. Dylan voted LL. Those are the only cases of unknown-on-unknown voting, from my point of view. It makes me recall that some scum teams decide explicitly not to bus in D1, so it's worth considering that we might be in that sort of a situation here, in which case maybe there's not a lot of on-wagon bussing either.

I'm not sure that helps us much at all here, but I want to put it out there. The consequences would make mcmc look a bit more townie (since he picked up many of the unknown votes), and MiX and possibly LL look more likely to be scum. However, I doubt scum was counting on Galz going down so hard at the end, and it's true that at least one of them would almost certainly have benefitted from bussing if they were able, so this reasoning is probably a bit far out there to rely on.

In the bolded portions, you actually say it's MiX and mcmc that are scummy, while if something else is true (I think your no bussing idea) mcmc is actually townier and MiX and LL are scummier. Nowhere do you include mcmc and LL the way you just described (again, in this post at least, which is the only one I was addressing earlier).
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Dylan32

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #384 on: December 03, 2020, 11:54:01 am »

To be clear, that is the inconsistency to which I am referring, not what you are analyzing. I agree and appreciate you looking at the votes, but it seemed to me the conclusion you stated earlier didn't follow from the evidence you cited, which I thought seemed more likely to come from scum!Space trying to fill space in a post rather than town!logical space.
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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #385 on: December 03, 2020, 11:58:34 am »

Space, do you have your vca raw data readily available? Would you share?

Here's a code box with the complete D1 and partial D2 votes, as my counter records them.
Disclaimer: I haven't done a lot of comparing to mod counts, so use at your own risk :-)
Thanks!
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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #386 on: December 03, 2020, 11:59:01 am »

I'm kinda confused on what you're trying to say at the last 2 paragraphs. Is this like a mini-VCA, or are the votes that useless that this is the complete VCA?

Ah, let's try to rephrase this!

I looked at the complete VCA from the whole of D1, coloured such that Raptor, fasut, and I were green, Galz was read, and everyone else was coloured as unflipped. Then I looked for all instances of unflipped-on-unflipped voting, and there are very few.

#42: Mix votes mcmc
#79: Dylan votes LL
#82: EFHW votes mcmc
#188: ADK votes mcmc
#203: Mix votes LL (then moves back to mcmc at #220).

Those are, from my point of view, the only possible off-wagon busses by the scumteam, because the rest of the time, either someone's voting for known town, or they're a known town voting for someone else. Probably the fact I had a wagon, and voted for three different people, makes it more obvious to me than to most others, but I find it interesting, and so it's worth putting out there for future consideration later in the game. The rest of town can't really trust this till I show up as conf!green.

The interesting thing is that either one of those five pairs of people is the rest of the scumteam, or (probably more likely) the scumteam decided not to bus at all, except possibly on Galz in the end.

If the rest of the scumteam is in one of those pairs, then there's a definite scum in {mcmc,LL}. If instead the scumteam were really showing a pattern of not bussing at all, I'd feel more townie on the people who started the two Galz wagons, who were ADK and then Didds. So two very different conclusions we can't do anything much with at the moment, but which might come in useful further down the line.

And now I see where the LL mcmc pairing came from, and this makes more sense than your original post did, but as you recognized it's incomplete. Also, for something like this, you should look at who scum!galz voted for too that hasn't flipped yet, and if his votes eventually flip town, there would be more evidence that scum didn't bus.
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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #387 on: December 03, 2020, 12:11:45 pm »

Someone might have already said this - I couldn't find it though - LL is in the scummiest position on wagon. He was the last in 5 votes for Galzria that took place from 190-203.

I was going to say gkrieg looks towny in his vote, since the mcmc wagon was up to three and he could have voted there. But if all three are scum, voting Galz was the best move. So if mcmc flips scum, I'll want to look again at gkrieg.

I don't feel like Dylan did justice to my case on mcmc. Not sure what to make of that.

PPE: 3

Ok, read your case. I had only really intended to address one point of your case in the first place, not the whole thing, which could be why it felt like I didn't do it justice.

To your point of mcmc defending LL from "knowing" that galz was scum and scum!LL wouldn't jump on scum!galz there: From scum!mcmc perspective, either he defended town!LL in a way that gave away the fact he is Galz's partner, or he tried to put distance between both his partners. The former doesn't seem like a defense scum!mcmc would do, like why not allow a town to jump on a scum wagon in a scummy way in order to create the suspicion of bussing that might come later (as it has so far today). The latter would be a mistake and mean that from a single post you identified the entire scum team. I won't say that's impossible, but I just don't think that's the scum team.

I already responded to mcmc sounding certain in his hammer post and talking in terms of "if he's scum" and "I don't think scum!galz claims there," but for one thing, not everyone states their read on a person before voting for them, and for another, it's not un-town-like to be confident in a read but be convinced to doubt that read based on a person's reaction to being hammered.

Then the last few sentences aren't a convincing on their own. Honestly, without going back and doing a complete mcmc reread, it's kind of hard to actually follow what you are saying there, so maybe you're right and have a good point there, but that's why I didn't really address that part of your case earlier.
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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #388 on: December 04, 2020, 01:45:20 am »

Prod request for mcmc, gkrieg, and raptor
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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #389 on: December 04, 2020, 06:13:56 am »

Also, for something like this, you should look at who scum!galz voted for too that hasn't flipped yet, and if his votes eventually flip town, there would be more evidence that scum didn't bus.

Heh, you're as bad as MiX insisting I'm forgetting things :-P

Yes, it makes sense to look at whether it's possible for Galz to have voted for any scums. Yes, I would have included that had there been any relevant votes. No, there weren't any relevant votes. He spent the early parts of D1 voting Raptor, who's literally the IC, and then unvoted for a long while, and then voted me at the end, after gkrieg had put him to X-1.

If you or other people want to consider that maybe Galz would vote scum!me for wifom at that rather desperate-looking juncture, while I'm on his wagon and therefore unable to help him build sensible momentum on a non-Galz wagon, then sure, but I really think you're clutching at straws. If I was scum alongside Galz just after gkreig's X-1, the much more sensible thing would have been for Galz to swing to mcmc, and for me to follow, since I was clearly around and posting and could have responded to Galz's reappearance in the game by moving my vote elsewhere.
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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #390 on: December 04, 2020, 06:31:16 am »

I was going to post a space count, but the official vote count sums it up fine, and the only difference is that Dylan is now voting for me rather than back at LL.

I feel like the people I'm most suspicious of in isolation are {mcmc,LL,MiX}, though Dylan is creeping up too, maybe just for omgus reasons.

Vote: mcmc seems a good place for me right now.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #391 on: December 04, 2020, 07:50:04 am »

Oof! We’ve fallen into a lull. I’m partly responsible for it, I know, but still. The multi-prod will help. And maybe more voting?

In that spirit, vote: mcmc
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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #392 on: December 04, 2020, 11:58:30 am »

sounds good to me

vote: mcmc
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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #393 on: December 04, 2020, 12:05:47 pm »

If Swowl could find a replacement,  that would be better for the fun of the game than exiling Galz. Also, it seems to me that scum!Galz would be less likely to do this.

This is a scummy post from EFHW when the galz wagon was picking up EAL folks.

It's not scummy to hope for a more active player to join us. There was no reason to think Galz was any more scummy than random. Last game I got heat for pressuring him to participate more!

PPE: 17

I agree, but I think the question is are you more likely to do it as scum to a scum partner, or are you equally as likely to do it as town.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #394 on: December 04, 2020, 12:07:47 pm »

I also think it is unlikely that partners bussed galz, because the main reason you do that as scum is if you get a bunch of town cred for bussing your partner D1, and the way it happened, with the reasons it happened do not point to anyone getting a bunch of town cred for exiling galz.

Am I wrong in thinking that some people are looking at mcmc in a townier light because of the hammer? I know I'm feeling a bit suspicious of him, and I'm pretty sure it was EFHW who expressed something similar, but I thought there are others who feel he's townie after that.

I don't think enough people are looking at him townie enough that it had the desired effect if he is scum. But yes, I see your point.
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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #395 on: December 04, 2020, 12:08:37 pm »

gkrieg: made a couple of posts after the X-1, ending 2 hours before Galz returned. Gkrieg didn't return until D2.

I feel like this is a little misleading, as my posts after my X-1 vote were just to say that it was X-1. I also stated that I was not going to return, so if you are looking at people being stuck on their partner, it can't be me.

Nope, Dylan's original post was asking about people who were online but maybe hadn't really had time to respond to Galz's big wall of posts before mcmc's hammer, so I was saying that you don't fall into that category because you definitively weren't around. I had thought that more people than just me and EFHW had managed to interject something into that stream, but it turns out that most of the other posting started with the hammer from mcmc, not before it.

Got it. That's what I get for just reading a single post.
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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #396 on: December 04, 2020, 12:10:51 pm »

At the end, it looks like galz tries to stop a wagon from forming on mcmc. Maybe he realized that mcmc was the only other person he could reasonably get a wagon going on and was looking for other last-minute alternatives?
Does this mean you think mcmc is scum?

I think mcmc looks scummy from what galz does.
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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #397 on: December 04, 2020, 12:13:50 pm »

I was going to say gkrieg looks towny in his vote, since the mcmc wagon was up to three and he could have voted there. But if all three are scum, voting Galz was the best move. So if mcmc flips scum, I'll want to look again at gkrieg.

This isn't entirely true. My best move would have been to put my vote one someone else who I thought might gain traction (in the case that the scum team is me, galz, mcmc). Especially since I was leaving, there could have been a chance for a last-minute exile that was neither galz or mcmc. Especially if there had been an actual claim from galz or mcmc that got people to explore a third person right near the deadline.
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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #398 on: December 04, 2020, 12:15:24 pm »

She said that she didn’t include anyone who voted for someone who hadn’t flipped. I only voted for someone who had flipped, so I was left out. She also left out the votes on Galz from other folks on his wagon at the end, and ADKs vote on Galz earlier in the day. She was only looking at the votes on people still unknown to try to build a sense of interactions.

Wow, thanks for that summary, Didds! I was getting worried that I might be talking gibberish, because I'm feeling super-frustrated at MiX repeatedly accusing me of being wrong when it seems more likely that he just got it into his head that I was doing something different (based on early/late voting maybe?) than I actually was trying to do, and therefore wasn't open to any evidence based on actual reality :-P

Either that, or MiX is genuinely being difficult over that one little bussing point I made because he's scum and wants to focus conversation on something minor that might even end up being misleading...

I'm still confused, but I guess that's just me.

Space only looked at still unflipped voter voting for still unflipped target. That would exclude any votes for or by faust and galz, since they have both flipped. It's not super complicated. Now, having said that, I'm actually not sure there's enough information to support any conclusions space was trying to make in this post.

It's sort of interesting that the off-wagon people were much more present. EFHW also posted in the middle of Galz's wall of posts, at #251, so she could have chosen to hammer but didn't. MiX and ADK both posted within minutes of the hammer, hadn't posted before that.

I think MiX and mcmc are emerging as people who are looking suspicious now. The former for trying so hard not to exile Galz, and the latter for being so decisive about exiling him.

Interestingly, I feel like it's unlikely they're both scummy, because MiX moved his vote from LL, who'd been on two votes, onto mcmc, putting him to three votes. I don't think scum!MiX tries to detract from scum!Galz's wagon by growing a wagon on scum!mcmc instead.

Also, looking at possible D1 bussing off-wagon, there's really not a lot of scope for it if I also assume that MiX and mcmc aren't scum together. ADK was on the first incarnation of the Galz wagon, and later also voted Dylan and mcmc. EFHW voted mcmc. Dylan voted LL. Those are the only cases of unknown-on-unknown voting, from my point of view. It makes me recall that some scum teams decide explicitly not to bus in D1, so it's worth considering that we might be in that sort of a situation here, in which case maybe there's not a lot of on-wagon bussing either.

I'm not sure that helps us much at all here, but I want to put it out there. The consequences would make mcmc look a bit more townie (since he picked up many of the unknown votes), and MiX and possibly LL look more likely to be scum. However, I doubt scum was counting on Galz going down so hard at the end, and it's true that at least one of them would almost certainly have benefitted from bussing if they were able, so this reasoning is probably a bit far out there to rely on.

So the unknown on unknown votes were MiX->LL, mcmc; ADK->Dylan, mcmc; EFHW->mcmc; Dylan->LL; and whatever votes Space did but didn't list here. The simple fact is, 6+space's votes just isn't enough to say anything about whether scum had a no bussing policy in place for D1. Space does admittedly say "I'm not sure how that helps us much at all here," but then proceeds to defend mcmc a bit and shade MiX and LL, which is strange because mcmc received 3 votes and LL received 2, so I would think from this LL would be included with mcmc rather than MiX, who voted for both LL and mcmc. Actually, that inconsistency sounds just like Space was talking just to make up something to talk about and trying to make up conclusions to fit the narrative they wanted rather than looking at what they were posting.

vote: Space

I really don't think this is enough of a reason to vote. It also seems like people are dwelling on this (frankly harmless) thing that Space did, almost to the point where I would start looking for scum in the people who are still talking about it.
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Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #399 on: December 04, 2020, 12:16:02 pm »

@ADK: At 144 you were the only one voting Galz. Then you voted Dylan at 159 and mcmc at 189, both before the flood of votes for Galz that started at 190. Why did you leave Galz and why didn't you go back?

I left galz because the day was going slowly and I was hoping to get something to happen. I didn't go back because I was hoping for something more interesting than a lurker exile

But a lurker that you have a scum read on should still be a pretty good exile.
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