Dominion Strategy Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Pages: 1 ... 12 13 [14] 15 16 ... 23  All

Author Topic: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Game Over! Town Wins Flawlessly!  (Read 60774 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

SpaceAnemone

  • Thief
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 91
  • Shuffle iT Username: SpaceAnemone
  • Correct Horse Battery Staple
    • View Profile
Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #325 on: December 01, 2020, 07:37:59 pm »

It's sort of interesting that the off-wagon people were much more present. EFHW also posted in the middle of Galz's wall of posts, at #251, so she could have chosen to hammer but didn't. MiX and ADK both posted within minutes of the hammer, hadn't posted before that.

I think MiX and mcmc are emerging as people who are looking suspicious now. The former for trying so hard not to exile Galz, and the latter for being so decisive about exiling him.

Interestingly, I feel like it's unlikely they're both scummy, because MiX moved his vote from LL, who'd been on two votes, onto mcmc, putting him to three votes. I don't think scum!MiX tries to detract from scum!Galz's wagon by growing a wagon on scum!mcmc instead.

Also, looking at possible D1 bussing off-wagon, there's really not a lot of scope for it if I also assume that MiX and mcmc aren't scum together. ADK was on the first incarnation of the Galz wagon, and later also voted Dylan and mcmc. EFHW voted mcmc. Dylan voted LL. Those are the only cases of unknown-on-unknown voting, from my point of view. It makes me recall that some scum teams decide explicitly not to bus in D1, so it's worth considering that we might be in that sort of a situation here, in which case maybe there's not a lot of on-wagon bussing either.

I'm not sure that helps us much at all here, but I want to put it out there. The consequences would make mcmc look a bit more townie (since he picked up many of the unknown votes), and MiX and possibly LL look more likely to be scum. However, I doubt scum was counting on Galz going down so hard at the end, and it's true that at least one of them would almost certainly have benefitted from bussing if they were able, so this reasoning is probably a bit far out there to rely on.
Logged
Congratulations! Your SpaceAnemone evolved into UniverseAnemone!
Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

WestCoastDidds

  • Ambassador
  • ***
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 33
  • Shuffle iT Username: WestCoastDidds
  • Didds, ya'll
    • View Profile
Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #326 on: December 01, 2020, 11:21:26 pm »

As much as I hate raptor's vote (and the Galz wagon (holy hell he's at X-1, why)), he's doing a perfectly good job as an IC, and I don't think he needs to say more. Dylan does though, is he even scumreading who he's voting for?

MiX reads very scummy, trying to get people off of galz and on to other exiles, trying to get people that may convince people off of galz back into the game (other lurkers).

I agree that it looks really scummy, but I think scum!mix would be way more subtle. I don’t think he leans so far into a defense that implicated him.
Logged
classic Diddsian meddling
I never got to read what Didds said, but whatever she's saying, she's right.

LaLight

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 774
  • Shuffle iT Username: LaLight
  • Because I'm a potato
    • View Profile
Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #327 on: December 02, 2020, 03:55:00 am »

There goes my scum!faust theory

Phone posting atm but I will say that I would be shocked if Galz's partners weren't both bussing

What makes you say they would both be bussing? Most of the votes on his wagon were from EAL people, with some other stuff in there. It was also an exile on the day of the deadline, which I think scum still think they can get the exile to go a different day, which would make them less likely to bus.

You're missing some added context that in Galz's last couple games, his activity level has been a matter of discussion and concern to the point that last game it had been discussed whether they were inactive enough to warrant a lurker exile D1. The fact that this game started the same way gives a bit more cover for scum to go ahead and join that specific bus in hopes of grabbing the towncred since there would have been an argument to be made that it was a pro-town exile regardless of flip.

Oddly enough, I think of the people on wagon, mcmc is the one I feel least inclined to exile right now. His reasons (of course given after the fact, so grain of salt) are more substantial than anything anyone else said in the course of the wagon building.  EFHW's point about going from "I know you're scum" to using "if" again later is one of those things that might seem bad on the surface, but if playing with MiX has taught me anything, it's that absolute statements don't always mean the person is absolutely sure and unable to change their mind. Also, the confident statement was when he voted, and the uncertainty was after the post-hammer cop claim, which I would say gives mcmc reason enough to question that read while waiting for the flip.

Vote: LaLight

Just iso'd LL and read through Galz's stream of posts when he came back and said a lot. Between the two I think there's a decent chance LL is scum here.

Galz claimed 1 scum in {faust, space}, probably one in {LL, MiX}, and one in the rest. Since galz wasn't able to talk to his partners to plan the nk, I doubt they would have paid much attention to his pairings when thinking about the nk, so I don't think this says anything about Space for sure, but I don't think galz leaves both partners out of his scum-read pairings, so I feel pretty confident there's at least 1 in {space, LL, MiX}.

holy ppe 8 batman

this is some grasping-at-straws theory, looking like you need something to form a scumread. I mean there's so much wifom in Galzria's list, that it can be entirely disregarded. vote: Dylan32
Logged
Wins: 15, 10
Losses: 11, 5, 1
Draws: 1
MVPs: 4
Mod/Co-mod: 18

I always have a limited access to forum on weekends.

SpaceAnemone

  • Thief
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 91
  • Shuffle iT Username: SpaceAnemone
  • Correct Horse Battery Staple
    • View Profile
Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #328 on: December 02, 2020, 06:01:48 am »

Galz claimed 1 scum in {faust, space}, probably one in {LL, MiX}, and one in the rest. Since galz wasn't able to talk to his partners to plan the nk, I doubt they would have paid much attention to his pairings when thinking about the nk, so I don't think this says anything about Space for sure, but I don't think galz leaves both partners out of his scum-read pairings, so I feel pretty confident there's at least 1 in {space, LL, MiX}.

holy ppe 8 batman

this is some grasping-at-straws theory, looking like you need something to form a scumread. I mean there's so much wifom in Galzria's list, that it can be entirely disregarded. vote: Dylan32

Honestly, it's a decent D2 theory, and something that crossed my mind when I was re-reading Galz, but then forgot to take up again in the thread. From my PoV, the two options are either that Galz put both of his scumbuddies in the bottom bracket, or he put one in the middle pair (MiX and LL), since I know the top pair (me and faust) are both town.

OTOH, I feel like Galz was playing to an audience a bit too much that late in his wall of posts. That was the one right before he was hammered, and he must have realised that the longer it went on, the less good things were looking for him. Maybe that means he'd go for deliberate wifom.

However, I'm still a bit unconvinced as to why LL, who was on the Galz wagon, would be a better exile than MiX, who was desperately fighting against it. @Dylan, are you specifically scumreading LL because of the wagon placement?
Logged
Congratulations! Your SpaceAnemone evolved into UniverseAnemone!
Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

SpaceAnemone

  • Thief
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 91
  • Shuffle iT Username: SpaceAnemone
  • Correct Horse Battery Staple
    • View Profile
Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #329 on: December 02, 2020, 06:07:11 am »

And/Or Vote: Faust - either one is easily a better exile than mine here.

Mcmc reads town to me - would prefer not to lynch there. ADK also reads pretty townie overall.

My wagon:

WCD (first vote, been mix of scummy and townie so far D1 - wouldn't be surprised to find she's town, but she's not my top pick here)
Raptor (clearly scum. Nobody wants to do that though, so.)
Space (Most likely to be scum - easy vote, follows IC, no real consequences - also been scummy in general)
faust (Basically same spot as Space here. If Space ISN'T scum, almost certainly faust is. Absolutely expect scum in one of these two spots).
LaLight (I have the smallest read on him of any player in the game at this point. Between that lack of read and his positioning here, I would place him in the next tier down from faust/Space)
Gkrieg (Not convinced scum likes to be here for no reason at this point. Especially with what is likely already one scum on wagon. Better to just let things simmer - my exile looked pretty well setup without his help)

MiX's defending of me, while appreciated, is also scummy.

Almost certainly one scum in {faust, Space}.
Probably one scum in {LaLight, MiX}.
Last scum amongst {WCD, ADK, gkrieg, Dylan, Mcmc, Efoo}

Another thought regarding this Galz post: it's got a convenient structure where he's going through commenting on all the people on his wagon in order. That means it's quite natural for him to skip over having to talk about the off-wagon people, which is ADK, Dylan, mcmc (at that point) and EFHW.

If scum really were going down the little-to-no-bussing route, then it would actually be very natural to be able to include both his scumbuddies in that bottom bracket after all. That may be especially likely given that he throws wagon-members WCD and gkrieg into the bottom set as well, which rather pads it out. He could easily have justified leaving suspicion on someone like gkrieg on wagon placement alone.
Logged
Congratulations! Your SpaceAnemone evolved into UniverseAnemone!
Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

LaLight

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 774
  • Shuffle iT Username: LaLight
  • Because I'm a potato
    • View Profile
Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #330 on: December 02, 2020, 08:10:24 am »

still, actions of some people (mcmc and dylan) are for me more telling and more scummy than relying on trying to decode Galzria's post. I agree with Space that MiX defending Galzria is too bold of a move, MiX is a bit more rational than that, I believe. That leaves Space in the roster of people mentioned by Galz, and although I suspect them as well, their actions on D1 seem less scummy than convenient "rusty" mcmc hammer if that makes sense.
Logged
Wins: 15, 10
Losses: 11, 5, 1
Draws: 1
MVPs: 4
Mod/Co-mod: 18

I always have a limited access to forum on weekends.

MiX

  • Navigator
  • ****
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 77
  • Shuffle iT Username: MiX
  • It's me.
    • View Profile
Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #331 on: December 02, 2020, 10:44:04 am »

I uh, forgot about this yesterday. Doesn't help that my internet was terrible either. I'll catch up now, I got the VCA set up but I haven't analyzed it yet.

Vote: EFHW 's in the best possible spot for scum: outside the scum wagon, on the counterwagon, not directly tied to the Galz wagon on either side. If scum's on it, it would be either Space or gkrieg, which have the best bus spot and the least impactful vote.

How is putting someone to E-1 saying that I won't be around for the deadline the least impactful vote?

Well, compared to the first vote, which allowed raptor to start the wagon, LL's vote, which essentially made it Galz vs mcmc, and mcmc's hammer, I'd say that yours and Space's votes are the least impactful ones (made by non-greens anyway: you can argue yours is more important than raptor's). But thinking about it better, yours is probably on par with LL's: I didn't really realize it at the time, but I suppose your vote is what made Galzria a dead man walking, since mcmc could just hammer whenever. I think i was still on the train of thought I had D1, which was thinking about a town!Galz, but if he's scum, then there were considerably more chances of surviving at X-2 than at X-1.

It's sort of interesting that the off-wagon people were much more present. EFHW also posted in the middle of Galz's wall of posts, at #251, so she could have chosen to hammer but didn't. MiX and ADK both posted within minutes of the hammer, hadn't posted before that.

I think MiX and mcmc are emerging as people who are looking suspicious now. The former for trying so hard not to exile Galz, and the latter for being so decisive about exiling him.

Interestingly, I feel like it's unlikely they're both scummy, because MiX moved his vote from LL, who'd been on two votes, onto mcmc, putting him to three votes. I don't think scum!MiX tries to detract from scum!Galz's wagon by growing a wagon on scum!mcmc instead.

Also, looking at possible D1 bussing off-wagon, there's really not a lot of scope for it if I also assume that MiX and mcmc aren't scum together. ADK was on the first incarnation of the Galz wagon, and later also voted Dylan and mcmc. EFHW voted mcmc. Dylan voted LL. Those are the only cases of unknown-on-unknown voting, from my point of view. It makes me recall that some scum teams decide explicitly not to bus in D1, so it's worth considering that we might be in that sort of a situation here, in which case maybe there's not a lot of on-wagon bussing either.

I'm not sure that helps us much at all here, but I want to put it out there. The consequences would make mcmc look a bit more townie (since he picked up many of the unknown votes), and MiX and possibly LL look more likely to be scum. However, I doubt scum was counting on Galz going down so hard at the end, and it's true that at least one of them would almost certainly have benefitted from bussing if they were able, so this reasoning is probably a bit far out there to rely on.

I forgot if I said this already, but I was reading the Galzria rapid-fire posts when the hammer dropped, so I commented on it.

I'm kinda surprised people aren't looking at EFHW, and are instead looking at mcmc, which I believe to be one of the most townie people in general. I haven't reread D1 yet, and the scum!mcmc arguments aren't bad, but still, nothing about EFHW. The lack of interaction with the wagon at all feels exactly what one of the scum would do, and it makes sense with what I remember of her D1.

I, uh, agree with the third statement. Moving on.

I'm kinda confused on what you're trying to say at the last 2 paragraphs. Is this like a mini-VCA, or are the votes that useless that this is the complete VCA?

still, actions of some people (mcmc and dylan) are for me more telling and more scummy than relying on trying to decode Galzria's post. I agree with Space that MiX defending Galzria is too bold of a move, MiX is a bit more rational than that, I believe. That leaves Space in the roster of people mentioned by Galz, and although I suspect them as well, their actions on D1 seem less scummy than convenient "rusty" mcmc hammer if that makes sense.

What "actions of dylan" are you talking about here?
Logged

SpaceAnemone

  • Thief
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 91
  • Shuffle iT Username: SpaceAnemone
  • Correct Horse Battery Staple
    • View Profile
Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #332 on: December 02, 2020, 01:12:06 pm »

I'm kinda confused on what you're trying to say at the last 2 paragraphs. Is this like a mini-VCA, or are the votes that useless that this is the complete VCA?

Ah, let's try to rephrase this!

I looked at the complete VCA from the whole of D1, coloured such that Raptor, fasut, and I were green, Galz was read, and everyone else was coloured as unflipped. Then I looked for all instances of unflipped-on-unflipped voting, and there are very few.

#42: Mix votes mcmc
#79: Dylan votes LL
#82: EFHW votes mcmc
#188: ADK votes mcmc
#203: Mix votes LL (then moves back to mcmc at #220).

Those are, from my point of view, the only possible off-wagon busses by the scumteam, because the rest of the time, either someone's voting for known town, or they're a known town voting for someone else. Probably the fact I had a wagon, and voted for three different people, makes it more obvious to me than to most others, but I find it interesting, and so it's worth putting out there for future consideration later in the game. The rest of town can't really trust this till I show up as conf!green.

The interesting thing is that either one of those five pairs of people is the rest of the scumteam, or (probably more likely) the scumteam decided not to bus at all, except possibly on Galz in the end.

If the rest of the scumteam is in one of those pairs, then there's a definite scum in {mcmc,LL}. If instead the scumteam were really showing a pattern of not bussing at all, I'd feel more townie on the people who started the two Galz wagons, who were ADK and then Didds. So two very different conclusions we can't do anything much with at the moment, but which might come in useful further down the line.
Logged
Congratulations! Your SpaceAnemone evolved into UniverseAnemone!
Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

MiX

  • Navigator
  • ****
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 77
  • Shuffle iT Username: MiX
  • It's me.
    • View Profile
Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #333 on: December 02, 2020, 01:42:02 pm »

I'm kinda confused on what you're trying to say at the last 2 paragraphs. Is this like a mini-VCA, or are the votes that useless that this is the complete VCA?

Ah, let's try to rephrase this!

I looked at the complete VCA from the whole of D1, coloured such that Raptor, fasut, and I were green, Galz was read, and everyone else was coloured as unflipped. Then I looked for all instances of unflipped-on-unflipped voting, and there are very few.

#42: Mix votes mcmc
#79: Dylan votes LL
#82: EFHW votes mcmc
#188: ADK votes mcmc
#203: Mix votes LL (then moves back to mcmc at #220).

Those are, from my point of view, the only possible off-wagon busses by the scumteam, because the rest of the time, either someone's voting for known town, or they're a known town voting for someone else. Probably the fact I had a wagon, and voted for three different people, makes it more obvious to me than to most others, but I find it interesting, and so it's worth putting out there for future consideration later in the game. The rest of town can't really trust this till I show up as conf!green.

The interesting thing is that either one of those five pairs of people is the rest of the scumteam, or (probably more likely) the scumteam decided not to bus at all, except possibly on Galz in the end.

If the rest of the scumteam is in one of those pairs, then there's a definite scum in {mcmc,LL}. If instead the scumteam were really showing a pattern of not bussing at all, I'd feel more townie on the people who started the two Galz wagons, who were ADK and then Didds. So two very different conclusions we can't do anything much with at the moment, but which might come in useful further down the line.

I think you're completely forgetting about Didds' vote. What do you think of her?
Logged

Swowl

  • Pawn
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1
  • Shuffle iT Username: Swowl
  • Snow.Owl.Duh.
    • View Profile
Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #334 on: December 02, 2020, 02:19:09 pm »

Vote Count 2.2:

MCMC (1): EFHW
EFHW (1): MiX
gkrieg (1): ADK
LaLight (1): Dylan23
Dylan23 (1): LaLight

Not Voting (5): SpaceAnemone, WestCoastDidds, MCMC, XxRaptorSlayer96, gkrieg


With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.
Day 2 starts now and ends on December 6th at 5:20pm Forum Time.
Logged
Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

LaLight

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 774
  • Shuffle iT Username: LaLight
  • Because I'm a potato
    • View Profile
Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #335 on: December 02, 2020, 03:02:34 pm »

I uh, forgot about this yesterday. Doesn't help that my internet was terrible either. I'll catch up now, I got the VCA set up but I haven't analyzed it yet.

Vote: EFHW 's in the best possible spot for scum: outside the scum wagon, on the counterwagon, not directly tied to the Galz wagon on either side. If scum's on it, it would be either Space or gkrieg, which have the best bus spot and the least impactful vote.

How is putting someone to E-1 saying that I won't be around for the deadline the least impactful vote?

Well, compared to the first vote, which allowed raptor to start the wagon, LL's vote, which essentially made it Galz vs mcmc, and mcmc's hammer, I'd say that yours and Space's votes are the least impactful ones (made by non-greens anyway: you can argue yours is more important than raptor's). But thinking about it better, yours is probably on par with LL's: I didn't really realize it at the time, but I suppose your vote is what made Galzria a dead man walking, since mcmc could just hammer whenever. I think i was still on the train of thought I had D1, which was thinking about a town!Galz, but if he's scum, then there were considerably more chances of surviving at X-2 than at X-1.

It's sort of interesting that the off-wagon people were much more present. EFHW also posted in the middle of Galz's wall of posts, at #251, so she could have chosen to hammer but didn't. MiX and ADK both posted within minutes of the hammer, hadn't posted before that.

I think MiX and mcmc are emerging as people who are looking suspicious now. The former for trying so hard not to exile Galz, and the latter for being so decisive about exiling him.

Interestingly, I feel like it's unlikely they're both scummy, because MiX moved his vote from LL, who'd been on two votes, onto mcmc, putting him to three votes. I don't think scum!MiX tries to detract from scum!Galz's wagon by growing a wagon on scum!mcmc instead.

Also, looking at possible D1 bussing off-wagon, there's really not a lot of scope for it if I also assume that MiX and mcmc aren't scum together. ADK was on the first incarnation of the Galz wagon, and later also voted Dylan and mcmc. EFHW voted mcmc. Dylan voted LL. Those are the only cases of unknown-on-unknown voting, from my point of view. It makes me recall that some scum teams decide explicitly not to bus in D1, so it's worth considering that we might be in that sort of a situation here, in which case maybe there's not a lot of on-wagon bussing either.

I'm not sure that helps us much at all here, but I want to put it out there. The consequences would make mcmc look a bit more townie (since he picked up many of the unknown votes), and MiX and possibly LL look more likely to be scum. However, I doubt scum was counting on Galz going down so hard at the end, and it's true that at least one of them would almost certainly have benefitted from bussing if they were able, so this reasoning is probably a bit far out there to rely on.

I forgot if I said this already, but I was reading the Galzria rapid-fire posts when the hammer dropped, so I commented on it.

I'm kinda surprised people aren't looking at EFHW, and are instead looking at mcmc, which I believe to be one of the most townie people in general. I haven't reread D1 yet, and the scum!mcmc arguments aren't bad, but still, nothing about EFHW. The lack of interaction with the wagon at all feels exactly what one of the scum would do, and it makes sense with what I remember of her D1.

I, uh, agree with the third statement. Moving on.

I'm kinda confused on what you're trying to say at the last 2 paragraphs. Is this like a mini-VCA, or are the votes that useless that this is the complete VCA?

still, actions of some people (mcmc and dylan) are for me more telling and more scummy than relying on trying to decode Galzria's post. I agree with Space that MiX defending Galzria is too bold of a move, MiX is a bit more rational than that, I believe. That leaves Space in the roster of people mentioned by Galz, and although I suspect them as well, their actions on D1 seem less scummy than convenient "rusty" mcmc hammer if that makes sense.

What "actions of dylan" are you talking about here?

sorry for quoting the whole post: phone. I am talking about Dylan seeming to try to make up a scumread out of nothing, really
Logged
Wins: 15, 10
Losses: 11, 5, 1
Draws: 1
MVPs: 4
Mod/Co-mod: 18

I always have a limited access to forum on weekends.

gkrieg13

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 509
  • Shuffle iT Username: gkrieg
    • View Profile
Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #336 on: December 02, 2020, 03:50:50 pm »

Galz claimed 1 scum in {faust, space}, probably one in {LL, MiX}, and one in the rest. Since galz wasn't able to talk to his partners to plan the nk, I doubt they would have paid much attention to his pairings when thinking about the nk, so I don't think this says anything about Space for sure, but I don't think galz leaves both partners out of his scum-read pairings, so I feel pretty confident there's at least 1 in {space, LL, MiX}.

Why don't you think that galz leaves out his partner? That requires that one of his partners were actually on his wagon, and that me and Didds are not his partner. I'm not so sure that he had a partner on his wagon already, and that he chooses to call out a partner instead of calling out me or Didds.
Logged

gkrieg13

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 509
  • Shuffle iT Username: gkrieg
    • View Profile
Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #337 on: December 02, 2020, 03:51:55 pm »

If Swowl could find a replacement,  that would be better for the fun of the game than exiling Galz. Also, it seems to me that scum!Galz would be less likely to do this.

This is a scummy post from EFHW when the galz wagon was picking up EAL folks.

agree with this

Although thinking about it more, I think town!EFHW could have also been worried about possibly-town!galz and had basically a similar reaction.
Logged

gkrieg13

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 509
  • Shuffle iT Username: gkrieg
    • View Profile
Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #338 on: December 02, 2020, 03:54:25 pm »

gkrieg: made a couple of posts after the X-1, ending 2 hours before Galz returned. Gkrieg didn't return until D2.

I feel like this is a little misleading, as my posts after my X-1 vote were just to say that it was X-1. I also stated that I was not going to return, so if you are looking at people being stuck on their partner, it can't be me.
Logged

gkrieg13

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 509
  • Shuffle iT Username: gkrieg
    • View Profile
Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #339 on: December 02, 2020, 03:56:46 pm »

I also think it is unlikely that partners bussed galz, because the main reason you do that as scum is if you get a bunch of town cred for bussing your partner D1, and the way it happened, with the reasons it happened do not point to anyone getting a bunch of town cred for exiling galz.
Logged

gkrieg13

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 509
  • Shuffle iT Username: gkrieg
    • View Profile
Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #340 on: December 02, 2020, 03:58:48 pm »

As much as I hate raptor's vote (and the Galz wagon (holy hell he's at X-1, why)), he's doing a perfectly good job as an IC, and I don't think he needs to say more. Dylan does though, is he even scumreading who he's voting for?

MiX reads very scummy, trying to get people off of galz and on to other exiles, trying to get people that may convince people off of galz back into the game (other lurkers).

I agree that it looks really scummy, but I think scum!mix would be way more subtle. I don’t think he leans so far into a defense that implicated him.

You're saying that MiX would defend scum when he is town more often than he would defend them as scum? Or just that he wouldn't be so obvious about it? It was a pretty simple defense though, just that galz was not very active, so he would rather vote somewhere else. I don't think that is so brazen.
Logged

gkrieg13

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 509
  • Shuffle iT Username: gkrieg
    • View Profile
Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #341 on: December 02, 2020, 04:00:11 pm »

this is some grasping-at-straws theory, looking like you need something to form a scumread. I mean there's so much wifom in Galzria's list, that it can be entirely disregarded. vote: Dylan32

Why is Dylan more likely to do that as scum? I think he is also pretty likely to latch onto this theory as town. Not saying that I townread him, I'm just surprised that you voted for him after finding his theory weak.
Logged

gkrieg13

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 509
  • Shuffle iT Username: gkrieg
    • View Profile
Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #342 on: December 02, 2020, 04:01:56 pm »

Galz claimed 1 scum in {faust, space}, probably one in {LL, MiX}, and one in the rest. Since galz wasn't able to talk to his partners to plan the nk, I doubt they would have paid much attention to his pairings when thinking about the nk, so I don't think this says anything about Space for sure, but I don't think galz leaves both partners out of his scum-read pairings, so I feel pretty confident there's at least 1 in {space, LL, MiX}.

holy ppe 8 batman

this is some grasping-at-straws theory, looking like you need something to form a scumread. I mean there's so much wifom in Galzria's list, that it can be entirely disregarded. vote: Dylan32

Honestly, it's a decent D2 theory, and something that crossed my mind when I was re-reading Galz, but then forgot to take up again in the thread. From my PoV, the two options are either that Galz put both of his scumbuddies in the bottom bracket, or he put one in the middle pair (MiX and LL), since I know the top pair (me and faust) are both town.

OTOH, I feel like Galz was playing to an audience a bit too much that late in his wall of posts. That was the one right before he was hammered, and he must have realised that the longer it went on, the less good things were looking for him. Maybe that means he'd go for deliberate wifom.

However, I'm still a bit unconvinced as to why LL, who was on the Galz wagon, would be a better exile than MiX, who was desperately fighting against it. @Dylan, are you specifically scumreading LL because of the wagon placement?

This post makes me townread Space a little bit more. I think they are more likely to have this frame of thinking when they are truly town, rather than when they are just reading the post and trying to get something out of it. Especially the part I bolded. Not saying they aren't capable of making this kind of post as scum, but just that they are less likely to think this way.
Logged

gkrieg13

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 509
  • Shuffle iT Username: gkrieg
    • View Profile
Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #343 on: December 02, 2020, 04:04:19 pm »

still, actions of some people (mcmc and dylan) are for me more telling and more scummy than relying on trying to decode Galzria's post. I agree with Space that MiX defending Galzria is too bold of a move, MiX is a bit more rational than that, I believe. That leaves Space in the roster of people mentioned by Galz, and although I suspect them as well, their actions on D1 seem less scummy than convenient "rusty" mcmc hammer if that makes sense.

The issue I still have with writing off MiX as not being that bold is that often stopping someone from being exiled D1 can lead to them not really coming under scrutiny later, because people talk themselves out of exiling someone that was at X-1 D1. At least that has been my experience.
Logged

A Drowned Kernel

  • 2015 World Champion
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1067
  • They/Them
    • View Profile
Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #344 on: December 02, 2020, 04:06:23 pm »

I also think it is unlikely that partners bussed galz, because the main reason you do that as scum is if you get a bunch of town cred for bussing your partner D1, and the way it happened, with the reasons it happened do not point to anyone getting a bunch of town cred for exiling galz.

Isn't this post an example of it happening?
Logged
The perfect engine
But it will never go off
Three piles are empty

gkrieg13

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 509
  • Shuffle iT Username: gkrieg
    • View Profile
Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #345 on: December 02, 2020, 04:08:36 pm »

I also think it is unlikely that partners bussed galz, because the main reason you do that as scum is if you get a bunch of town cred for bussing your partner D1, and the way it happened, with the reasons it happened do not point to anyone getting a bunch of town cred for exiling galz.

Isn't this post an example of it happening?

I'm saying that there is not anyone that is getting a bunch of town cred (to the point that people think they are conf!town), which makes it less likely that scum bussed galz.
Logged

gkrieg13

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 509
  • Shuffle iT Username: gkrieg
    • View Profile
Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #346 on: December 02, 2020, 04:09:30 pm »

I also think it is unlikely that partners bussed galz, because the main reason you do that as scum is if you get a bunch of town cred for bussing your partner D1, and the way it happened, with the reasons it happened do not point to anyone getting a bunch of town cred for exiling galz.

Isn't this post an example of it happening?

I'm saying that there is not anyone that is getting a bunch of town cred (to the point that people think they are conf!town), which makes it less likely that scum bussed galz.

Oh, I see what you mean now. Hmmmmm.
Logged

A Drowned Kernel

  • 2015 World Champion
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1067
  • They/Them
    • View Profile
Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #347 on: December 02, 2020, 04:13:47 pm »

I guess more broadly, I don't think "this hypothetical scum tactic didn't work" is necessarily an argument against the idea that they tried it
Logged
The perfect engine
But it will never go off
Three piles are empty

EFHW

  • Spy
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 81
  • Shuffle iT Username: EFHW
  • EFHW="ee-foo". Really, how else would you say it?
    • View Profile
Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #348 on: December 02, 2020, 05:02:42 pm »

If Swowl could find a replacement,  that would be better for the fun of the game than exiling Galz. Also, it seems to me that scum!Galz would be less likely to do this.

This is a scummy post from EFHW when the galz wagon was picking up EAL folks.

It's not scummy to hope for a more active player to join us. There was no reason to think Galz was any more scummy than random. Last game I got heat for pressuring him to participate more!

PPE: 17
Logged

EFHW

  • Spy
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 81
  • Shuffle iT Username: EFHW
  • EFHW="ee-foo". Really, how else would you say it?
    • View Profile
Re: M133 - FDS on a Plane Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #349 on: December 02, 2020, 05:11:11 pm »

Space, do you have your vca raw data readily available? Would you share?
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 12 13 [14] 15 16 ... 23  All
 

Page created in 0.066 seconds with 20 queries.