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Author Topic: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Game Over! Skum Wins!  (Read 50392 times)

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faust

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #975 on: October 28, 2020, 01:55:28 am »

I don't see why people think Space is so townie.

but if that's where we are at then it means I have to just hope that the scumteam is chairs/Galz.

Vote: Galzria
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #976 on: October 28, 2020, 07:26:02 am »

TBH, I'm not used to being so widely townread, especially by the likes of Robz.

However... I am the Tracker. At first, I thought I was doing a pretty terrible job of tracking, because all I've had are null results. I think I'm pretty much guaranteed to have hit scum at least half the time, though, it's just that either they haven't targeted that night, or blocking shenanigans have happened, though the latter is less likely than I might have thought at first.

N1: Eevee -- he was on what I considered to be the scummiest position on the Joseph exile. I tried to breadcrumb that I thought he was more innocent going into D2 because I'd had a null result (see the middle of post #459).
N2: faust -- after Glooble flipped town, I was worried about the "one scum in {ADK, faust}" likelihood, especially because faust has been heavily pushing Glooble and refusing to scrutinise ADK when the wagon evidence alone didn't warrant it, and even though I'd pushed him for reasons behind being so set on Glooble in-thread.
N3: Galz -- he was terribly awol, and I know my frustration with his lack of interaction with the game was showing in-thread. However, an absent scum can still be puppeted by present scumbuddies in the scum QT, so it seemed worth a shot, and it seemed like the only possible way to get alignment-indicative content from him.
N4: faust -- as I said, going into the night, I really thought faust-Didds seemed like the most likely pairing, and with Didds topping most people's scum lists, I figured that faust would be more likely to take the targeted action, given that if they're the scum pair then they know there's a tracker out there.

As I said, all of these were identically null results.

The existence of my role does mean that scum has a two-shot role-stopper, which is how they presumably killed EFHW N3: role-stopping her to prevent the doctor shot from taking, and then using a regular NK to get the job done. That means there is one rolestopper shot unaccounted for, i.e. my target could have been rolestopped on at most one night. I haven't actually confirmed with Swowl whether his interpretation of the "twice at night" means both shots could have been used on different targets on N3, or whether it needs to be different night. For scum to end up no-killing last night, I suspect it means that both rolestopper shots have now been used.

Note that from N3 when scum pulled out the stops to take EFHW down, there's no point in them using their godfatherer shot, so that makes the expected number of scum targets per night lower. When I tracked faust in N2, the godfatherer could still have been expected to be using shots, whereas when I tracked Galz N3, if he is the godfatherer (which I think is likely, with Chairs being the Siamese Cat) then there was no point in him targeting, since the godfatherer shot only protected them from EFHW's role and she was guaranteed to be out of the game.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #977 on: October 28, 2020, 07:30:43 am »

Vote: Chairs

I still prefer Chairs as an exile over Galz, because Chairs-faust looks far more possible to me than Galz-Didds, so there's no point in taking Galz down before Chairs from my point of view.
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #978 on: October 28, 2020, 07:34:05 am »

The fact that everyone in this game, including the scum, evidently want us all to be forced to presume that the team is either didds/faust or chairs/Galz... should give greater pause!

TBH, I was quite interested in getting people to polarize early in the day, in case it led to some interesting twisting around with respect to who'd exile whom later on. And I do think we're in an interesting position where not considering full partner interactions is a mistake because there's a lot of second-order info out there. Sorry it gives you more work to do than the rest of us, though!
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faust

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #979 on: October 28, 2020, 07:45:36 am »

What did you claim that for?
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faust

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #980 on: October 28, 2020, 07:48:56 am »

At this point in the game, I should claim that I am 1-shot Bulletproof. Either Galz is scum and then scum had that information already or Space is scum and then everyone needs to know that their claim doesn't IC them.
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faust

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #981 on: October 28, 2020, 07:50:35 am »

We could have blocked another scum kill here, but for some reason Space decided to give that up.
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faust

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #982 on: October 28, 2020, 08:08:57 am »

unvote

I feel very uneasy about this claim the more I think about it.
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #983 on: October 28, 2020, 08:17:22 am »

Why did I claim? Because everyone seems to be exhibiting end-of-game fatigue and this is crunch time. I didn't have any good reason think we had any other PRs out there, because the current complement seemed sufficient to explain all the goings-on in the game.

In particular, Galz and Robz have got to low-effort "I think this" and "this is known" kind of conversation that means I'm getting less and less optimistic about Robz putting in the effort to revisit Galz and his Didds case from D4 and re-examine any evidence afresh, rather than going on hunches remembered from earlier on. I feel like there's still evidence and discussion to be had, and I think it's useful to draw out a crunch day to make scum squirm, but it's not useful if town starts getting antsy and disengaged too, and I feel like that's the direction people are being pulled in, so I wanted to put some fresh information into the game to force people back into critical thinking.

Your claim is interesting, and probably true. The only reason for scum!faust to try to sway me from calling the scumteam Galz-Chairs is if the real team is faust-Chairs, which I've always said is an outside chance, but faust-Didds looked way more likely if faust is scum. Either way, I'm confident that Chairs is the correct exile.

PPE 1
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Robz888

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #984 on: October 28, 2020, 10:40:33 am »

Uh that was a reeeeeeeally unnecessary and bad claim, Space.
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Robz888

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #985 on: October 28, 2020, 10:41:12 am »

Space, can you quote the specific post you are so insistent I revisit?
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #986 on: October 28, 2020, 10:42:55 am »

No one say anything other than that, actually, until Galzria weighs in.
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #987 on: October 28, 2020, 10:58:45 am »

Space, can you quote the specific post you are so insistent I revisit?

It's Galz's huge wall post at the end of D4, where he re-reads all the key players. Take a look at the actual earlier-game posts that Didds made that make him conclude she's scummy, and there's next to nothing there at all that points to scum.

I went through the whole of his really long post point by point (my post in response to his is #904), grouping them into things that supported a scum!Didds argument and things that supported a scum!Chairs argument, and really, the things that support scum!Chairs far outweigh scum!Didds, and so the confidence with which he makes his town!Chairs claim is deeply suspicious to me, and I want a second trustworthy opinion.
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Robz888

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #988 on: October 28, 2020, 11:11:27 am »

Space, can you quote the specific post you are so insistent I revisit?

It's Galz's huge wall post at the end of D4, where he re-reads all the key players. Take a look at the actual earlier-game posts that Didds made that make him conclude she's scummy, and there's next to nothing there at all that points to scum.

I went through the whole of his really long post point by point (my post in response to his is #904), grouping them into things that supported a scum!Didds argument and things that supported a scum!Chairs argument, and really, the things that support scum!Chairs far outweigh scum!Didds, and so the confidence with which he makes his town!Chairs claim is deeply suspicious to me, and I want a second trustworthy opinion.

Iíve read and re read it, and I think it could very well be scum!Galz building a false case on Didds, or scum!Galz building an incidentally correct case on a partner, for town points after this flip. I think by this time it would have been apparent to them that Didds is going down before Galz.

I guess Iím not sure why you are so hung up on this.
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Robz888

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #989 on: October 28, 2020, 11:18:30 am »

Actually... Vote: Galz

We can probably just go ahead and exile him rather than wait.
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faust

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #990 on: October 28, 2020, 11:26:32 am »

Actually... Vote: Galz

We can probably just go ahead and exile him rather than wait.
You don't think Space's claim is suspicious? I look at it and think there is no good reason for town!Space to make that claim. For for scum!Space... they don't know which of me/Galz is the 1-shot BP. If noone claims Tracker and Galz claims 1-shot BP, then that ICs him (due to EFHW's death we know that scum has some way to circumvent Doctors). So then Space's whole case here would fall apart and there is a significant threat that their partner would be the exile instead. This certainly looks like Space trying to preempt such a scenario by preventing Galz from becoming an IC. The claim was also made just when Galz became a viable exile.

The town!Space narrative not only has the problem that the claim doesn't make sense; it's also asking us to believe a) that Space targeted 2 scum, both of which had targeting powers beyond the nightkill and yet never got a result. b) that scum has 3 shots worth of preventing Doctor protection but somehow failed to kill you.
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Robz888

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #991 on: October 28, 2020, 11:42:09 am »

Actually... Vote: Galz

We can probably just go ahead and exile him rather than wait.
You don't think Space's claim is suspicious? I look at it and think there is no good reason for town!Space to make that claim. For for scum!Space... they don't know which of me/Galz is the 1-shot BP. If noone claims Tracker and Galz claims 1-shot BP, then that ICs him (due to EFHW's death we know that scum has some way to circumvent Doctors). So then Space's whole case here would fall apart and there is a significant threat that their partner would be the exile instead. This certainly looks like Space trying to preempt such a scenario by preventing Galz from becoming an IC. The claim was also made just when Galz became a viable exile.

The town!Space narrative not only has the problem that the claim doesn't make sense; it's also asking us to believe a) that Space targeted 2 scum, both of which had targeting powers beyond the nightkill and yet never got a result. b) that scum has 3 shots worth of preventing Doctor protection but somehow failed to kill you.

Here's my thinking: Scum!space has no chance of getting exile today, and in truth almost no chance of getting exiled tomorrow, assuming I am not the kill. The game was sort of already a lock for scum!space. But it's very much not a lock for confused and frustrated town!space, so I see the claim coming from there.
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faust

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #992 on: October 28, 2020, 11:53:51 am »

Actually... Vote: Galz

We can probably just go ahead and exile him rather than wait.
You don't think Space's claim is suspicious? I look at it and think there is no good reason for town!Space to make that claim. For for scum!Space... they don't know which of me/Galz is the 1-shot BP. If noone claims Tracker and Galz claims 1-shot BP, then that ICs him (due to EFHW's death we know that scum has some way to circumvent Doctors). So then Space's whole case here would fall apart and there is a significant threat that their partner would be the exile instead. This certainly looks like Space trying to preempt such a scenario by preventing Galz from becoming an IC. The claim was also made just when Galz became a viable exile.

The town!Space narrative not only has the problem that the claim doesn't make sense; it's also asking us to believe a) that Space targeted 2 scum, both of which had targeting powers beyond the nightkill and yet never got a result. b) that scum has 3 shots worth of preventing Doctor protection but somehow failed to kill you.

Here's my thinking: Scum!space has no chance of getting exile today, and in truth almost no chance of getting exiled tomorrow, assuming I am not the kill. The game was sort of already a lock for scum!space. But it's very much not a lock for confused and frustrated town!space, so I see the claim coming from there.
Well, eh. If we exile the fake Doctor and scum!Space doesn't fakeclaim here then tomorrow it's 1v1. A lot can happen there. I doubt the game looks like as much of a lock from a scum!Space perspective. Didds is the most likely partner for Space and it looks like she's gonna be the exile if we decide to exile a Doctor.

And I don't buy town!Space being confused, like, at all. There is no way in the world town!Space wouldn't have weighed he possible outcomes of a claim like that. And I find it hard to see a way in which they would arrive at the conclusion that it's a good thing to do.
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faust

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #993 on: October 28, 2020, 12:01:40 pm »

Why did I claim? Because everyone seems to be exhibiting end-of-game fatigue and this is crunch time. I didn't have any good reason think we had any other PRs out there, because the current complement seemed sufficient to explain all the goings-on in the game.
Like, this. You know how much of a numbers person Space is. Given the information supposedly available to them. These are the number of calculating how likely it is that there's another PR (assuming, again, town!Space):

50% chance of each of Modification 3 and 5 being present. There are, a priori, 4 equally likely outcomes: No additional mod, only mod 3, only mod 5, both mod 3 and mod 5. Now, both cannot be present since only one of me/Galz can be town. So there is 3 equally likely outcomes, 2 of which lead to another PR. I.e. the chance of another PR is 67%. Now sure you could argue that the sheer number of VT flips brings this down, but I don't see how you'd arrive at "no good reason to think we had any other PRs".
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Robz888

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #994 on: October 28, 2020, 12:28:07 pm »

Actually... Vote: Galz

We can probably just go ahead and exile him rather than wait.
You don't think Space's claim is suspicious? I look at it and think there is no good reason for town!Space to make that claim. For for scum!Space... they don't know which of me/Galz is the 1-shot BP. If noone claims Tracker and Galz claims 1-shot BP, then that ICs him (due to EFHW's death we know that scum has some way to circumvent Doctors). So then Space's whole case here would fall apart and there is a significant threat that their partner would be the exile instead. This certainly looks like Space trying to preempt such a scenario by preventing Galz from becoming an IC. The claim was also made just when Galz became a viable exile.

The town!Space narrative not only has the problem that the claim doesn't make sense; it's also asking us to believe a) that Space targeted 2 scum, both of which had targeting powers beyond the nightkill and yet never got a result. b) that scum has 3 shots worth of preventing Doctor protection but somehow failed to kill you.

Here's my thinking: Scum!space has no chance of getting exile today, and in truth almost no chance of getting exiled tomorrow, assuming I am not the kill. The game was sort of already a lock for scum!space. But it's very much not a lock for confused and frustrated town!space, so I see the claim coming from there.
Well, eh. If we exile the fake Doctor and scum!Space doesn't fakeclaim here then tomorrow it's 1v1. A lot can happen there. I doubt the game looks like as much of a lock from a scum!Space perspective. Didds is the most likely partner for Space and it looks like she's gonna be the exile if we decide to exile a Doctor.

And I don't buy town!Space being confused, like, at all. There is no way in the world town!Space wouldn't have weighed he possible outcomes of a claim like that. And I find it hard to see a way in which they would arrive at the conclusion that it's a good thing to do.

It's 1 v 1 but neither of those people would be space...
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faust

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #995 on: October 28, 2020, 12:44:59 pm »

Well, eh. If we exile the fake Doctor and scum!Space doesn't fakeclaim here then tomorrow it's 1v1. A lot can happen there. I doubt the game looks like as much of a lock from a scum!Space perspective. Didds is the most likely partner for Space and it looks like she's gonna be the exile if we decide to exile a Doctor.

And I don't buy town!Space being confused, like, at all. There is no way in the world town!Space wouldn't have weighed he possible outcomes of a claim like that. And I find it hard to see a way in which they would arrive at the conclusion that it's a good thing to do.

It's 1 v 1 but neither of those people would be space...
I don't follow... scenario is: 1-shot BP claim. No counterclaim, so they are IC. The remaining Doctor is IC. You are IC. Only 2 people remain, one of them being Space. What are you suggesting?
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #996 on: October 28, 2020, 12:57:50 pm »

Space, can you quote the specific post you are so insistent I revisit?

It's Galz's huge wall post at the end of D4, where he re-reads all the key players. Take a look at the actual earlier-game posts that Didds made that make him conclude she's scummy, and there's next to nothing there at all that points to scum.

I went through the whole of his really long post point by point (my post in response to his is #904), grouping them into things that supported a scum!Didds argument and things that supported a scum!Chairs argument, and really, the things that support scum!Chairs far outweigh scum!Didds, and so the confidence with which he makes his town!Chairs claim is deeply suspicious to me, and I want a second trustworthy opinion.

Iíve read and re read it, and I think it could very well be scum!Galz building a false case on Didds, or scum!Galz building an incidentally correct case on a partner, for town points after this flip. I think by this time it would have been apparent to them that Didds is going down before Galz.

I guess Iím not sure why you are so hung up on this.

Huh, you're putting forward two alternatives for scum!Galz making that post, but none for town!Galz. The reason I was sticking on it is that really reading and thinking about that post was what sold me on the Galz-Chairs scumpair and town!Didds, even though I came into the day slightly suspecting faust-Didds as the pair in spite of my second null result on faust.

Since you were promoting a scum!Didds theory earlier, and that seemed to go with a town!Galz theory more than anything else, I was expecting some discussion about why I'm wrong to scumread Galz so much from that post... and I think that's not forthcoming, especially since you're now voting for him.
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #997 on: October 28, 2020, 01:00:09 pm »

Well, eh. If we exile the fake Doctor and scum!Space doesn't fakeclaim here then tomorrow it's 1v1. A lot can happen there. I doubt the game looks like as much of a lock from a scum!Space perspective. Didds is the most likely partner for Space and it looks like she's gonna be the exile if we decide to exile a Doctor.

And I don't buy town!Space being confused, like, at all. There is no way in the world town!Space wouldn't have weighed he possible outcomes of a claim like that. And I find it hard to see a way in which they would arrive at the conclusion that it's a good thing to do.

It's 1 v 1 but neither of those people would be space...
I don't follow... scenario is: 1-shot BP claim. No counterclaim, so they are IC. The remaining Doctor is IC. You are IC. Only 2 people remain, one of them being Space. What are you suggesting?

Let's say we exile the correct scum today, actual Doctor dies. Tomorrow, it's me, you, space, Galz. We are picking between you and Galz, because I think space is town. That's what I meant by "a 1 v 1 that doesn't include space"
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Robz888

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #998 on: October 28, 2020, 01:04:08 pm »

Space, can you quote the specific post you are so insistent I revisit?

It's Galz's huge wall post at the end of D4, where he re-reads all the key players. Take a look at the actual earlier-game posts that Didds made that make him conclude she's scummy, and there's next to nothing there at all that points to scum.

I went through the whole of his really long post point by point (my post in response to his is #904), grouping them into things that supported a scum!Didds argument and things that supported a scum!Chairs argument, and really, the things that support scum!Chairs far outweigh scum!Didds, and so the confidence with which he makes his town!Chairs claim is deeply suspicious to me, and I want a second trustworthy opinion.

Iíve read and re read it, and I think it could very well be scum!Galz building a false case on Didds, or scum!Galz building an incidentally correct case on a partner, for town points after this flip. I think by this time it would have been apparent to them that Didds is going down before Galz.

I guess Iím not sure why you are so hung up on this.

Huh, you're putting forward two alternatives for scum!Galz making that post, but none for town!Galz. The reason I was sticking on it is that really reading and thinking about that post was what sold me on the Galz-Chairs scumpair and town!Didds, even though I came into the day slightly suspecting faust-Didds as the pair in spite of my second null result on faust.

Since you were promoting a scum!Didds theory earlier, and that seemed to go with a town!Galz theory more than anything else, I was expecting some discussion about why I'm wrong to scumread Galz so much from that post... and I think that's not forthcoming, especially since you're now voting for him.

I don't... what? If I read the post from a town!Galz perspective, okay I don't know, it's interesting analysis, I guess? You want my view of Galz's opinions in the event he is town? Why?
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Robz888

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #999 on: October 28, 2020, 01:08:24 pm »

Since you were promoting a scum!Didds theory earlier, and that seemed to go with a town!Galz theory more than anything else, I was expecting some discussion about why I'm wrong to scumread Galz so much from that post... and I think that's not forthcoming, especially since you're now voting for him.

We are just approaching this game in completely different ways. I'm not hung up on partner hunting, because I think everybody left is savvy enough to have had non-incriminating partner interactions, especially because we've been in a place for a while that bus-and-then-survive has looked like a pretty good scum option.

Didds' claim has unfolded in a manner I expect a scum claim to unfold. Chairs' has not. I'm not 100% confident on that though, and yeah there will be more re-reading to do. I'm just not in this mode of "we MUST figure out the partner now," since this will be pointless work if we're wrong.

But vastly beyond that it doesn't matter because these two subsequent claims basically corner Galz as scum. Or at least I'm more confident on that than a Didds vs chairs guess.
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