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Author Topic: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Game Over! Skum Wins!  (Read 9739 times)

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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #925 on: October 25, 2020, 09:14:41 am »

Okay, I know I said I'm ISOing faust, but I got side-tracked into checking votes on a wagon, and from there I revisited Eevee's vote in  D2 for Chairs at #511, which is noteworthy because it made Chairs the leading wagon:

Looking more at the #385-#423 period, the only vote to happen in there was that Chairs moved from Joseph to ADK at #404. That seems to make a Chairs-Glooble scum partnership unlikely, since it reduces the main competing wagon, making the Glooble-wagon joint-largest.

If Chairs is scum, that would put more suspicion on ADK and (from my point of view) faust, and make Glooble more townie. I think that's worth considering, since I feel like Chairs is playing a kind of different game to normal. Can other people who've played more with Chairs recently reassure me that he's not seeming odd?
I also think he's off. Never a fan of the "I'm just erratic" defense, either.

Vote: chairs

Voting following Eevee's post looks like this:
Chairs (3): A Drowned Kernel, Glooble, Eevee
EFHW (1): WestCoastDidds
Glooble (2): Chairs, faust
Not Voting (5): Dylan32, EFHW, Galzria, SpaceAnemone, Robz888

Eevee should have been aware of the voting distribution, because there was a VC about 15 posts earlier, though in the intervening time one vote had moved off Chairs, and another vote had joined, but 15 posts isn't so much to keep track over.

Anyway, when looking at the raw wagons, this is really the one thing that looks to be in Chairs's favour when it comes to not being partnered with Eevee. However, reminding myself of the context in which the vote was dropped, it doesn't seem like the kind of vote scum!Eevee wouldn't have dropped just for distancing, given that I wasn't the only person expressing that Chairs was behaving oddly. And as I've noted before, if we have scum!Didds instead of scum!Chairs, there's also bussing going on around this point in the game, because Didds votes Eevee before Eevee's vote is moved away from Chairs, and the latter doesn't happen until Eevee locks us into the Glooble mixile at the end of D2.
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Robz888

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #926 on: October 25, 2020, 09:16:05 am »

I mean the biggest thing that makes me suspect Faust is Didds partner is that he is still alive this late in the game. And itís not like scum had other people to kill, they even let me live.
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chairs

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #927 on: October 25, 2020, 09:27:53 am »

I've stayed quiet because honestly I was flabbergasted and I just don't know what to say here. Scum!Didds came pretty much out of left field for me, I was thinking like faust/Galz. I was thinking the former because, as noted, he is alive, which is a scumtell for faust, and the latter because he's been unusual for Galz this game... although perhaps this is mostly the VLA sticking in my craw.

faust

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #928 on: October 25, 2020, 10:02:44 am »

I think the other scum basically gave Didds up for dead and didnít want to look like the only person who didnít find Didds scummy. This actually applies to you pretty well!
This applies to everybody? I am confused. I think I was one of the first people to express suspicion on Didds, so saying I did it because she was scumread by everyone else is just plain wrong. And if I gave her up for dead already, why defend her now?

I donít know if you did at some earlier point, but your whole ďyou just undermined my town read on youĒ thing came later than other people reading Didds as scum, I think.
That is false.
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faust

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #929 on: October 25, 2020, 10:03:45 am »

I've stayed quiet because honestly I was flabbergasted and I just don't know what to say here. Scum!Didds came pretty much out of left field for me, I was thinking like faust/Galz. I was thinking the former because, as noted, he is alive, which is a scumtell for faust, and the latter because he's been unusual for Galz this game... although perhaps this is mostly the VLA sticking in my craw.
You mean the fact that your top scumread from yesterday is scum caught you by surprise?
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #930 on: October 25, 2020, 10:47:38 am »

I said this yesterday....but for the folks ISOing chairs, I think it is worth noting that he is being much nicer (to me at least) than usual.  If he is partners with Galz, which I think he is, then that is good advice and something Glaz certainly knows.  I am easy to buddy and it keeps me back on my heels.

However, the best evidence that I am the doctor is this set of exchanges where in I explain that I tried to lay low so that I wouldn't be killed early because (the last time I was the doctor) that happened and it was awful.  If you read this knowing I am the doctor, it is a really clear statement about my motives. I assumed that after faust made the point that if my play had gotten worse (the second quoted box here) and I responded that in that game I had been the doctor, and he subsequently dropped this line of discussion that he probably knew I was the doc.  In fact, I assumed I had screwed up so badly that everyone knew I was the doctor.  I think Space did...her quote (last box) seems like her trying to give me some cover.

Galzy, some of the posts you find scummy are just me trying to get better at forming and articulating reads. Itís a work in progress. In my last game, scum killed me early because I was active so Iíve been trying to be less rando, but you know me....I kind of live for the chatter.
So... you've been trying to be more lurky in order to avoid the nightkill?

The is so incredibly anti-town I don't even know what to say.

I feel like that's a misrepresentation of what didds was trying to say there

How so?

Iím not saying that Iím trying to be less present, I think I have largely succeeded in being present this game even though I was swamped at the beginning.

Iím trying to be less random and post with purpose. I like to talk so my inclination is to post whatever whenever because talking is fun and you all are interesting people. Turns out that is annoying to many. Further, one of my challenges is that I think by writing so I end up starting posts without knowing what my point is until Iíve written through it. Iím trying to do that less because when asked to explain later why I said a particular thing, only some people understand what I mean when I say I didnít really have a point and that isnít scummy, itís just me. I obviously still do this to some extent, but Iím working on having better arguments and not just having random responses in the same way that Iím working in reasons instead of just feelings.

As for trying to avoid the NK...yes. I did/do not want to be killed. In that game, it was frustrating to be killed early on in the only game going at the time, and then to discover itís because I was playing in a particular way led me to consider how I might improve.

PPE: yes, ADK. Thank you.

As for trying to avoid the NK...yes. I did/do not want to be killed. In that game, it was frustrating to be killed early on in the only game going at the time, and then to discover itís because I was playing in a particular way led me to consider how I might improve.

PPE: yes, ADK. Thank you.
Well, it's just... if scum kills you N1, then that means you played a good game. Surviving until now means you played worse (or, you know, are scum). So you didn't improve, you got worse.

In that game I was the doctor. It was devastating.

As for trying to avoid the NK...yes. I did/do not want to be killed. In that game, it was frustrating to be killed early on in the only game going at the time, and then to discover itís because I was playing in a particular way led me to consider how I might improve.

PPE: yes, ADK. Thank you.
Well, it's just... if scum kills you N1, then that means you played a good game. Surviving until now means you played worse (or, you know, are scum). So you didn't improve, you got worse.

In that game I was the doctor. It was devastating.

While I recognise that you're not openly saying you're not a doctor in this game, it might be worth noting that it's almost certainly not in town's interests to be talking about who is and isn't a doctor here, in case scum gets better PoE than they already have.

WestCoastDidds

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #931 on: October 25, 2020, 10:50:52 am »

Couple of other random thoughts before I head out for the day...

Also, look at chairs votes and look at my votes. 

I was voting for Eevee, and being vocal about that read before anyone else was.  You all know that isn't how I play as scum.  Not when there are so many other choices. chairs on the other hand hammered ADK, and is present on town wagons frequently.

Finally, I think faust being still alive means he is scum is apocryphal.  He is not the default N1 kill anymore (happens to MiX and e more), although this idea that if hes alive he's scum is used against him frequently.

faust

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #932 on: October 25, 2020, 11:00:01 am »

Finally, I think faust being still alive means he is scum is apocryphal.  He is not the default N1 kill anymore (happens to MiX and e more), although this idea that if hes alive he's scum is used against him frequently.
Yeah, it's a meme. I'm alive because my reads were bad, same as Robz.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #933 on: October 25, 2020, 11:12:10 am »

Iím taking my BFF to the hill country for wine tasting now so Iím out for most of the rest of the day and certain to be DAMA this evening.  See you then!

chairs

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #934 on: October 25, 2020, 12:05:09 pm »

Lol was I scumreading Didds yesterday? I don't remember doing that. I really just have this image of Didds being Town in my head that apparently won't quit coming back, I guess! I'd probably Town read her now if it weren't a counterclaims scenario  :-[

I promise to get better at keeping track of when you do manage to crack into my scum Radar next game Didds  ;D

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #935 on: October 25, 2020, 01:37:19 pm »

Iím not mad that youíre being nicer to me even though itís a ploy! xoxo

SpaceAnemone

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #936 on: October 25, 2020, 06:23:04 pm »

Another point in favour of town!faust: he actually spent quite a few posts defending me from ADK's scum!Space theories. Does an Eevee-faust-{Chairs,Didds} scum-team go out of its way to tell ADK they're wrong, rather than riding on incorrect town sentiment that's likely to generate at least as many mixiles? Is white-knighting me actually worthwhile?

(or EFHW I guess, that wagon was also kind of viable at the time)

This. There's two possible partners for space to be deflecting from
So if Space was scum partnered with EFHW (let's assume that Glooble is town) then does it make sense for Space to switch votes from Glooble to Joseph when they did? I am not convinced. All that achieves is create a situation where instead of 2 town wagons vs 1 scum wagon you have 1 town wagons vs 1 scum wagon. And let's not forget that Space was on the IC-approved wagon at the time.

Basically, I don't think your narrative for scum!Space makes much sense. Unless Glooble is scum. But since it only holds any water if Glooble is scum, you should be going after Glooble.

Later on in D2, faust got quite fixated on a particular snapshot of the D1 Glooble wagon, and this was one place where I got quite paranoid that scum!faust could play us by relying on me to go for wagon analysis to the exclusion of other reads, and push through exiles on the other townies on the list before faust:
Glooble (4): ADK, Space, faust, Robz888
This wagon snippet he quotes persisted from #385-#423, with the overall D1 hammer coming at #427 on the Joseph wagon.

Now, if the Galz-Chairs-Eevee hypothesis holds up, then this wagon was indeed four-towns-on town. I think it's not so far-fetched, though. A normal four-towns-on-town wagon can happen quite readily in D1 of a game this size; faust was already pointing out that this was exceptional because it was endorsed by the IC. I don't actually have stats from previous f.ds games that specifically look at IC-endorsed wagons, but I think it's fair to assume that four-towns-on-town would be less common in an IC-endorsed wagon that otherwise.

However the missing piece of context from earlier is the competing wagon on Joseph at the time. Dylan's case on Joseph was solid, and Joseph had provably misrepresented himself to the thread. I think that might be an even more defensible-looking place for scum votes than the wagon with the IC on it, especially given that already in D1 people were throwing shade around at people who were seen to be just sheeping the IC.

tl;dr The game still makes sense if all the people on that Glooble wagon were town, and if several scums were all together on the Joseph wagon.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #937 on: October 25, 2020, 07:42:29 pm »

Sorry.. that last post made two kind of separate points and I should probably have split it down. [And now to compound that, I've gone off and done other stuff while this post has been sitting half-written in a tab!]

The other thing that's definitely worth noting: a lot of Galz's case for town!Chairs seemed to centre on expecting scum to be nicely distributed across wagons, rather than all piled onto one. This is not necessarily so important in the early game, where we know they had daychat to coordinate things, but also, I think we now have proof that at least two, if not all three, of the scumteam were on the Joseph wagon, which just makes an argument based on scum never doubling up look suspicious.

This is because when Eevee joined the Joseph wagon at #285, both Galz and faust were already on there. Unless you want to make a serious case for Didds and Chairs both being scum together even after the doctor counterclaim, then this represents a doubling-up of scum on the Joseph wagon. Chairs was also on the wagon at the same time later on, so it's possible that if the Galz-Chairs-Eevee hypothesis is correct, then all three scum were on Joseph, and at the very least, both faust and Eevee were there.

True, it's more likely overall that we'd see two scum at once on a wagon rather than three, but there are other points in the game where we do probably see two:
From #97 all the way up to #174, both faust and Didds were on ADK, so even if you support the Didds-faust hypothesis, this leads to doubling-up.
From #633, Chairs, Eevee and faust were all on the Glooble EoD2 wagon, and it seems almost certain that at least one of Chairs and faust is a teammate with Eevee.
At #722, Eevee was self-voting, and both Chairs and Didds were also on there, giving at least two scum on the wagon if we assume at least one in {Chairs,Didds}.

So yeah, I'm heavily leaning towards Chairs-Galz being the leading possibility, with a Chairs exile being the most likely to hit scum because of how much more likely Chairs-faust is than Galz-Didds.
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #938 on: October 25, 2020, 07:45:43 pm »

@Robz, I feel like you might still lean faust-Didds rather than Galz-Chairs. If that's the case, have you taken a look at Galz's D4 Didds case and checked back to see whether you agree that his points are fair, as I tried to do in #904? I came into today almost convinced that faust had to be scum, but reading how thin Galz's Didds case is compared to what evidence he's using to "clear" Chairs really made me rethink it. (And it also helps that the doctor claim really narrows the pairing possibilities down, at least for me).
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Robz888

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #939 on: October 25, 2020, 11:08:10 pm »

@Robz, I feel like you might still lean faust-Didds rather than Galz-Chairs. If that's the case, have you taken a look at Galz's D4 Didds case and checked back to see whether you agree that his points are fair, as I tried to do in #904? I came into today almost convinced that faust had to be scum, but reading how thin Galz's Didds case is compared to what evidence he's using to "clear" Chairs really made me rethink it. (And it also helps that the doctor claim really narrows the pairing possibilities down, at least for me).

I lean toward Didds being scum. I think partner analysis past that is a little speculative.
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #940 on: October 26, 2020, 01:04:27 am »

Vote Count 5.3:

WCD (1): chairs
chairs (2): faust, WCD
Not Voting (3): Galz, Space, Robz,

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
Day 5 starts now and ends October 29th at 7:40pm Forum Time.
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #941 on: October 26, 2020, 06:41:24 am »

PSA: European clocks have changed over the weekend, putting us an hour closer to Forum Time than usual, e.g. I'm only 4 hours ahead where it's usually 5. I think US clocks move next weekend.

Shouldn't make a big difference, though it does make Thursday night's deadline pre-midnight for me, so I ought to be able to be online even if it runs up to the wire.
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #942 on: October 26, 2020, 06:56:54 am »

@Robz, I feel like you might still lean faust-Didds rather than Galz-Chairs. If that's the case, have you taken a look at Galz's D4 Didds case and checked back to see whether you agree that his points are fair, as I tried to do in #904? I came into today almost convinced that faust had to be scum, but reading how thin Galz's Didds case is compared to what evidence he's using to "clear" Chairs really made me rethink it. (And it also helps that the doctor claim really narrows the pairing possibilities down, at least for me).

I lean toward Didds being scum. I think partner analysis past that is a little speculative.

Okay, so even if Galz is potentially partners with Didds, have you taken a look at Galz's D4 Didds case and checked back to see whether you agree that his points are fair, as I tried to do in #904? I'm telling you I think something doesn't add up about Galz, and I think it's worth digging at because I think it does inform us in the decision about {Didds, Chairs}.
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #943 on: October 26, 2020, 06:57:53 am »

So yeah, I'm heavily leaning towards Chairs-Galz being the leading possibility, with a Chairs exile being the most likely to hit scum because of how much more likely Chairs-faust is than Galz-Didds.
Does this analysis not imply that Galz would be the best exile?
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #944 on: October 26, 2020, 06:58:52 am »

So yeah, I'm heavily leaning towards Chairs-Galz being the leading possibility, with a Chairs exile being the most likely to hit scum because of how much more likely Chairs-faust is than Galz-Didds.
Does this analysis not imply that Galz would be the best exile?
Nevermind, sorry, I read it wrong.
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #945 on: October 26, 2020, 07:03:27 am »

Still think a Galzria exile should be on the table. From my perspective, there is 1 scum in {Galz, Space} and one in {Didds, chairs}, and I am significantly more confident in choosing from the former pairing. I do realize however that from Robz's point of view the chances might be worse here.
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #946 on: October 26, 2020, 07:04:26 am »

I'd like to hear from each of our Doctors who they think the second scum is, and why.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

Robz888

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #947 on: October 26, 2020, 09:21:05 am »

Still think a Galzria exile should be on the table. From my perspective, there is 1 scum in {Galz, Space} and one in {Didds, chairs}, and I am significantly more confident in choosing from the former pairing. I do realize however that from Robz's point of view the chances might be worse here.

Right, for me, there is an extra option in there that makes it worse. Between just space and Galzria I would exile Galzria.
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Robz888

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #948 on: October 26, 2020, 09:32:47 am »

I guess I should consider that both Faust and space canít be misleading me here...

I might actually be okay to exile Galzria.
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faust

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #949 on: October 26, 2020, 09:54:14 am »

Vote: Galzria
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.
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