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Author Topic: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Game Over! Skum Wins!  (Read 9499 times)

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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #825 on: October 20, 2020, 10:57:27 am »

Okay, ADK...so, chairs and who?

chairs

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #826 on: October 20, 2020, 12:11:51 pm »

Okay, so it's ADK and Didds. Got it.

SpaceAnemone

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #827 on: October 20, 2020, 12:28:47 pm »

Okay, so it's ADK and Didds. Got it.

Well, we'll know soon enough if we were right on ADK. If they don't flip scum for some reason, then Didds is right that your vote looks kind of suspicious. OTOH, Didds is also a top candidate for being scum.
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #828 on: October 20, 2020, 01:18:32 pm »

Okay, ADK...so, chairs and who?

faust, maybe
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Swowl

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #829 on: October 20, 2020, 01:25:39 pm »

Enjoy Twilight for 2-3 hours.
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #830 on: October 20, 2020, 01:39:02 pm »

Enjoy Twilight for 2-3 hours.

I don't know if I can read that book for that long, let alone enjoy it
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #831 on: October 20, 2020, 02:01:20 pm »

Enjoy Twilight for 2-3 hours.

I don't know if I can read that book for that long, let alone enjoy it

What, you donít like the idea of a vampire who watches you while youíre sleeping and lives only for you but also has to go hunt rabbits and stuff?

WestCoastDidds

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #832 on: October 20, 2020, 02:02:20 pm »

Hey! Want to play drunk mafia on Friday evening??

Galzria

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #833 on: October 20, 2020, 02:39:00 pm »

Some of the snapshots I was looking at:

Post #285

ADK (1): Glooble
Glooble (3): ADK, Space, Chairs
EFHW (2): Joseph, MiX
Galzria (1): WCD
Joseph (5): Galzria, faust, Robz, Dylan, Eevee
MiX (1): EFHW


If faust is scum, Eevee put the second scum vote on a wagon of 5 on Joseph. If two of {ADK, Space, Chairs} are scum, then there were two scum votes on a wagon of 3 (which was it's peak up to that point). If WCD is scum, and faust is town, then scum were spread evenly. If ADK is town, there were 6 wagons town wagons to choose from (if he's scum, there were 5 wagons to choose from). If ADK is scum, it makes it microscopically more likely that WCD is town, as fully spreading their votes with a potential scum wagon isn't quite as good.

What's more interesting is that the next three votes that follow are in posts #305 (Robz votes WCD), #307 (EFHW votes WCD), and #308 (Chairs votes WCD). The vote (and reasoning) from Chairs is basically follow-the-IC. If WCD is town, this looks much worse for Chairs. It's possible two town players snap followed Robz to WCD, but it's slightly more likely that one town and one scum did.


Post #339
Glooble (2): ADK, Space
EFHW (1): Joseph
Galzria (1): WCD
Joseph (6): Galzria, Dylan, Eevee, Glooble, MiX, Chairs
WCD (1): Robz
Chairs (1): faust


This is the first time Joseph's wagon hit 6, with Chairs casting the L-1 vote. faust had just moved to Chairs two votes prior in post #324, and while one vote does not a wagon make, could chairs have been worried there might be more movement to follow? Dunno. Maybe Chairs didn't even notice. If Chairs/WCD are scum though, I could see where scum wants to deter either of their wagons from forming up or gaining steam. Note Chairs moved from MiX, which was a solitary vote at the time.


This is a snapshot progression of the last major movement D1:

Post #385:

Glooble (4): ADK, Space, faust, Robz
EFHW (3): Joseph, WCD, MiX
Joseph (5): Galzria, Dylan, Eevee, Glooble, Chairs
ADK (1): EFHW


From here, where we had three entrenched town wagons, Chairs moved off of the leading wagon (with scum!Eevee on it), and onto ADK in post #404. Space moved from Glooble to Joseph in #423. Prior to the move Glooble and Joseph were both at 4 votes. Not really much reason for Space to do this as scum. They're separated from Eevee already, and it's all town wagons as far as the eye can see. At worst (or best, depending on your view), things go to a no-exile. There's no pressure or meta for Space to make this move either, so in all, pretty neutral at worst, townie at best. Robz moves off of Glooble in #425, and EFHW hammers Joseph in #427, moving off of ADK. This makes the final VC look like:

Post #427:

Glooble (2): ADK, faust
EFHW (3): Joseph, WCD, MiX
Joseph (7): Galzria, Dylan, Eevee, Glooble, Space, Robz, EFHW
ADK (1): Chairs


If Space is town, then the only scum on the Joseph wagon is Eevee. That's not entirely impossible, and in fact is where I lean. For my money, I think there's one scum in {Chairs, WCD}, and one in {ADK, faust}. I don't think scum!ADK and scum!faust were both hanging around over on Glooble. The Chairs move is once again not a good look.

For D2, at the point WCD voted Eevee, the wagons looked like this:

Post #514:
Chairs (3): ADK, Glooble, Eevee
Glooble (3): Chairs, faust, Robz
Eevee (2): EFHW, WCD

Not voting: Dylan, Space, Galz


WCD was coming from a solo vote on EFHW, and at the time it took 6 to exile. This is a tricky situation if WCD and Chairs are scum together. On the one hand, she could come in and start to run up the Glooble wagon. This probably looks bad for her down the line though. On the other, voting Eevee creates multiple wagons (even if two are on scum), and allows for more open discussion all around - Although I think WCD would just continue to push her EFHW case instead. On the flip side, if Chairs is town, this is a pretty safe place to vote for Eevee for WCD. There are two wagons with more votes than Eevee, Glooble is a very viable and leading candidate from the previous day, and given all of the town wagons that were going around D1, it's incredibly unlikely the Eevee wagon goes anywhere here. As noted in my ISO, WCD doesn't exactly push Eevee super hard throughout D2 - the vote is just kinda sitting there. In addition, if Chairs is town here, and one of {ADK, faust} is scum, as I believe, this allows scum!WCD to not stack any wagons.

And this kinda brings me to the EoD hammer on Glooble by Space:

Post #645:

Chairs (2): WCD, Glooble
Glooble (6): faust, Robz, ADK, Chairs, Eevee, Space
Eevee (1): EFHW

Not Voting: Galzria, Dylan


Nothing, in all of the votes cast, and wagons prior, gives me ANY sense that scum were interested in stacking a wagon. I cannot find a single instance where I believe scum to have 3 votes on a wagon (or where, based on who is still alive), it's even likely/possible. Even with scum having daychat - I just do not honestly believe that they all piled onto Glooble here. I do not believe that Space, as scum, hammers here on a wagon that has both of their scum buddies on it. So if Space is scum, so is WCD. And while {faust, ADK} were already on the wagon when Chairs moved his vote there - which could be argued was a self preservation vote, if two of {faust, ADK, chairs} are scum, I don't believe that Eevee feels the need to get involved in this wagon right after Chairs. Either Chairs is town, and Eevee was already in a good spot on his wagon, or Chairs is scum, and Eevee's moving not only stacks the Glooble wagon, but also could implicate Chairs in the process by distancing from a partner.

Day 3 VCA isn't really worth looking at, and here we are on Day 4.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My overall conclusions, kept short here because I just updated the page and noticed ADK has been hammered, based on a combination of VCA and the ISO's that I did are as follows:

I'm 75% certain that WCD is scum. Her ISO was easily the scummiest of any living player, and where her votes sit in VCA analysis fits almost every ideal scum voting spread. Add in the fact that I simply do not believe that all scum were on the Glooble wagon EoD2, and this is hands down my highest scum read.

I'm also like, 90% certain Chairs is town. This would drop to 75% if WCD were also town, but I don't think that is the case. The primary thing here, is that despite his opportunistic voting and how he's generally approached play/his reads - the ISO on Eevee all but clears him. There is just no way Eevee endorses pursuing people that voted Joseph after Dylan did, when that subset contains {Eevee, Town!MiX, Glooble, Chairs} - especially as Eevee casually goes on to town read Glooble. That just isn't partner play. Add in that this suggestion was formulated by ADK (who could be scum), and it's pretty clear that Chairs isn't scum. Cherry on top, WCD's post #549, where she puts Eevee & Chairs as two of her three most scummy players - like I said in the WCD ISO, Scum!WCD's nightmare is to run solo. She doesn't double-bus, and she doesn't put both her partners in the bottom like that.

That leaves me feeling the following:

Scum: WCD
One Scum in: {faust, ADK}
Probably Town: Space
Town: Chairs

Between faust & ADK, I lean ADK - I'm not unhappy with his exile, although I would've preferred WCD.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #834 on: October 20, 2020, 02:46:43 pm »

@Galz, you commented in your long post about faust still being alive at this point in the game. You didn't say anything about Robz-the-IC being alive, though. Isn't that equally noteworthy?

The faust point was in jest, not really a point. The Robz-being-alive thing isn't something that should be speculated on. Yes, it's noteworthy. That's about all that should be said.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #835 on: October 20, 2020, 02:51:26 pm »

I think we have waited for Glaz long enough now.

Vote: ADK

This was fair, but still rushed. There wasn't much reason for this with 2 days left to deadline.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

faust

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #836 on: October 20, 2020, 03:30:44 pm »

I think we have waited for Glaz long enough now.

Vote: ADK

This was fair, but still rushed. There wasn't much reason for this with 2 days left to deadline.
I suppose not... but stalling is never good for a game, it gets people disinterested and that leads to less contribution in the future.
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chairs

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #837 on: October 20, 2020, 03:40:58 pm »

I'm so done with this game can we just vote out the scum and win already

chairs

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #838 on: October 20, 2020, 03:43:09 pm »

I'm legit struggling to even remember who's alive right now...

Space, Didds, faust, me, Robz, Galz

Scum to chum:
Didds
Galz
faust
Space

chairs

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #839 on: October 20, 2020, 03:43:31 pm »

(Excluded ADK since they're exiled already)

Robz888

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #840 on: October 20, 2020, 03:57:57 pm »

I am fine with this exile and glad it wasn't dragged out any longer.

My suspicions at this point are basically Didds or chairs.
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Swowl

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #841 on: October 20, 2020, 04:36:26 pm »

ADK has been lynched!
They were the Town Aligned Adorable Mutt.
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real good. Thatís how
Town:  12 wins, 9 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 6 wins, 5 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 2 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #842 on: October 20, 2020, 04:36:33 pm »

Vote Count 4.Final:

ADK (4): Space, Robz
, faust, chairs[/s]
Not Voting (3): WCD, Galz, ADK


With 7 alive, it took 4 to lynch.
Night 4 starts now and ends October 22nd at 3:35pm Forum Time.
Please submit night actions within 36 hours.

THREAD LOCKED!
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. Thatís how
Town:  12 wins, 9 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 6 wins, 5 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 2 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #843 on: October 22, 2020, 07:40:50 pm »

Vote Count 5.0:

Not Voting (6): WCD, Galz, Space, chairs, faust, Robz,

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
Day 5 starts now and ends October 29th at 7:40pm Forum Time.


THREAD UNLOCKED!
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. Thatís how
Town:  12 wins, 9 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 6 wins, 5 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 2 wins, 1 loss

chairs

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #844 on: October 22, 2020, 08:30:37 pm »

 8) 8) 8)

Galzria

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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Robz888

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #846 on: October 22, 2020, 10:52:23 pm »

So.... Doctor?
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #847 on: October 22, 2020, 11:02:44 pm »

Finally some good doctoring!

Galzria

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #848 on: October 23, 2020, 12:41:53 am »

Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

faust

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #849 on: October 23, 2020, 12:48:06 am »

So.... Doctor?
Well, maybe. There are explanations that don't require a Doctor though.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.
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