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Author Topic: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Game Over! Skum Wins!  (Read 25696 times)

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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #525 on: October 06, 2020, 07:04:28 pm »

Man I just started maybe townreading glooble, and now there's all this enthusiasm for his exile?

I need to do a reread. That might happen tonight
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Glooble

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #526 on: October 07, 2020, 09:34:50 am »

Vote: Glooble

What's your reasoning?
Robz voted for Glooble here:

Vote: Glooble is fine by me, actually. Definitely better than Joseph.
and noone joined in. This is despite Joseph already having claimed VT (meaning scum would prefer another exile). So there's only 2 options: Either the Glooble wagon already had 1-2 scum on it. The wagon at the time was:

Glooble (4): ADK, Space, faust, Robz888

So that would put scum among Space/ADK. But Space abandons the wagon shortly after, which there is no good reason for. So my preliminary conclusion is: There is scum among ADK/Glooble, and right now I'm liking Glooble more for that.

I can't follow this argument at all, so I can't defend against it. Faust says "Either the Glooble wagon already had 1-2 scum on it." but doesn't say what the "or" is. I assume it's "or Glooble is scum". Why? There's a logical leap you're asking us to make here and I'm not seeing it. You think scum would jump to me after Joseph claimed VT to increase their chances of hitting a power role? Why? Who does that? Hitting a power role day 1 is nice, but the primary goal of scum day one is to avoid suspicion. Their decision about whether to jump to me or stay on Joseph is going to be based on that. Joseph claiming VT doesn't factor into it. It would be way safer for scum to be on Joseph- that wagon was also Robz-approved, and Dylan's argument gives solid cover.
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 1!!!!
« Reply #527 on: October 07, 2020, 09:48:58 am »

Okay, so went back to reread Glooble. The gist of my townread was that he was more aggressive fingering players for scum than I'd expect scum to be. Basically putting himself out there against Mix (known active and headstrong player who isn't going to back down, not an easy exile),then ADK who at least I was townreading, and finally putting Joseph to early X-1. Not positions scum wants to put themselves in in my opinion. I did think Glooble was a bigger part in putting the Joseph case together, remembered that wrong, but the X-1 vote is a towny thing to do in my opinion, even if it was wrong here, just because scum would know it's wrong and wouldn't want the attention.

Today I think the push on chairs makes sense, as my sheep would indicate. Basically I think Glooble appears to be scumhunting hard without much worry about optics, which is a town trait imo. If this is a scum game, it's a brazen and masterful one.

Man does rereading a specific player give clarity compared to just reading the thread from phone as the posts trickle in and trying to piece together reads that way. I don't anymore think Glooble has been scummy today, and not sure why I did earlier (Robz voting for him probably influenced me some). I'll reread chairs next to see if I agree with my sheep.
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #528 on: October 07, 2020, 09:55:23 am »

Interesting point, chairs references Glooble WAY more than anyone else in the game. First townreading, then voting, but like one third of his posts have something about Glooble. Not sure what to make of that, but it really stuck out.

Other than that, not the most fruitful reread, players like chairs are tough for me to figure out. Like, he's self-proclaimedly going by feel and a little erratic, which I don't think is a bad way to actually find scum, especially early, but it's also so convenient for scum to hide behind.

@Glooble responding to earlier point:
I meant to say that it's scummy from faust and Galzria (especially Galzria!) to have been such a small factor this far, being how much they usually influence the game. It's not even about the activity level, just that they aren't really a big part of discussion in any way, although (my feel without rereading is) that faust has been coming to the center more. It's kind of a scum read borne from lack of towny evidence, if you will. For guys with their reputation, laying low early makes a lot of sense as scum, because it's tough to be the at the center of the attention for days on end and avoid the exile every time.
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faust

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #529 on: October 07, 2020, 10:46:19 am »

It would be way safer for scum to be on Joseph- that wagon was also Robz-approved, and Dylan's argument gives solid cover.
What makes you say that the Joseph wagon was Robz-approved?
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Glooble

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #530 on: October 07, 2020, 10:50:08 am »

It would be way safer for scum to be on Joseph- that wagon was also Robz-approved, and Dylan's argument gives solid cover.
What makes you say that the Joseph wagon was Robz-approved?

The part where Robz voted for Joseph before Dylan made his case.
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faust

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 1!!!!
« Reply #531 on: October 07, 2020, 10:51:52 am »

Okay, so went back to reread Glooble. The gist of my townread was that he was more aggressive fingering players for scum than I'd expect scum to be. Basically putting himself out there against Mix (known active and headstrong player who isn't going to back down, not an easy exile),then ADK who at least I was townreading, and finally putting Joseph to early X-1. Not positions scum wants to put themselves in in my opinion. I did think Glooble was a bigger part in putting the Joseph case together, remembered that wrong, but the X-1 vote is a towny thing to do in my opinion, even if it was wrong here, just because scum would know it's wrong and wouldn't want the attention.
Re: scumreading MiX - actually perfect for scum, it's good to be pushing some wagon that won't succeed, you look like you're doing something but won't be caught up in a misexile. I also don't think that having pushed two confirmed townies is particularly good evidence for Glooble being town, as scumhunting hard for that matter.
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faust

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #532 on: October 07, 2020, 10:52:55 am »

It would be way safer for scum to be on Joseph- that wagon was also Robz-approved, and Dylan's argument gives solid cover.
What makes you say that the Joseph wagon was Robz-approved?

The part where Robz voted for Joseph before Dylan made his case.

This doesn't look like approval though, and is more relevant to the timeframe in question:

Vote: Glooble is fine by me, actually. Definitely better than Joseph.
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Glooble

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #533 on: October 07, 2020, 10:56:54 am »

It would be way safer for scum to be on Joseph- that wagon was also Robz-approved, and Dylan's argument gives solid cover.
What makes you say that the Joseph wagon was Robz-approved?

The part where Robz voted for Joseph before Dylan made his case.

This doesn't look like approval though, and is more relevant to the timeframe in question:

Vote: Glooble is fine by me, actually. Definitely better than Joseph.

Doesn't change the fact that both of the wagons were on people the IC had voted for at one point or another. The question of whether a given scum player would switch from Joseph to me is entirely dependent on that player's style, priorities, and the optics of switching based on their own previous statements. Your whole argument seems to be predicated on the idea that any scum player worth their salt would switch to my wagon after Robz switched, and that's a flawed assumption.
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EFHW

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #534 on: October 07, 2020, 11:02:13 am »

So we have the (1) "no one got on Glooble because he is scum" theory and the (2) "scum jumped on Joseph's wagon because the case gave them cover" theory.

(1) supports (2), because if scum aren't on Glooble, where are they? (2) does not support (1). If scum were on the Joseph wagon, they wouldn't have left it for town!Glooble's wagon.

So I think theory (2) is the better bet.

PPE: 8
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #535 on: October 07, 2020, 11:06:18 am »

Doesn't change the fact that both of the wagons were on people the IC had voted for at one point or another. The question of whether a given scum player would switch from Joseph to me is entirely dependent on that player's style, priorities, and the optics of switching based on their own previous statements. Your whole argument seems to be predicated on the idea that any scum player worth their salt would switch to my wagon after Robz switched, and that's a flawed assumption.
Nice strawman.

My argument is: It is unlikely for a wagon on town with the IC on it to exist for an extended period of time without scum joining, or already being, on that wagon. Do you disagree?
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faust

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #536 on: October 07, 2020, 11:19:50 am »

So we have the (1) "no one got on Glooble because he is scum" theory and the (2) "scum jumped on Joseph's wagon because the case gave them cover" theory.

(1) supports (2), because if scum aren't on Glooble, where are they? (2) does not support (1). If scum were on the Joseph wagon, they wouldn't have left it for town!Glooble's wagon.

So I think theory (2) is the better bet.

PPE: 8
I don't understand why one theory supporting the other means that the former theory is better. I also don't see why (2) wouldn't support (1) anyways; if you assume scum was on the Joseph wagon, and Glooble was on that wagon, surely that supports the theory that Glooble is scum?
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EFHW

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #537 on: October 07, 2020, 11:21:03 am »

For reference:

Vote Count 1.6:

Joseph (4): Galzria, Dylan, Eevee, Glooble,
Glooble (4): ADK, Space, faust, Robz888
EFHW (3): Joseph, MiX, WCD
ADK (2): EFHW, chairs

Not Voting (0):
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faust

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #538 on: October 07, 2020, 11:23:11 am »

So we have the (1) "no one got on Glooble because he is scum" theory and the (2) "scum jumped on Joseph's wagon because the case gave them cover" theory.

(1) supports (2), because if scum aren't on Glooble, where are they? (2) does not support (1). If scum were on the Joseph wagon, they wouldn't have left it for town!Glooble's wagon.

So I think theory (2) is the better bet.

PPE: 8
I don't understand why one theory supporting the other means that the former theory is better. I also don't see why (2) wouldn't support (1) anyways; if you assume scum was on the Joseph wagon, and Glooble was on that wagon, surely that supports the theory that Glooble is scum?
Oh wait, I think I got it, it's like if (1) then (2), but not (if (2) then (1)), so (2) is more likely than (1). Well eh. You seem to imply that (2) is true if any scum were on Joseph, which sure I guess that version is likely true, but it's not particularly helpful.
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faust

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #539 on: October 07, 2020, 11:25:35 am »

Like it's not surprising that if you pitch the theory "this set of 4 people contains scum" versus "person X is scum" that the first theory is more likely to be true.
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Glooble

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #540 on: October 07, 2020, 11:25:47 am »

Doesn't change the fact that both of the wagons were on people the IC had voted for at one point or another. The question of whether a given scum player would switch from Joseph to me is entirely dependent on that player's style, priorities, and the optics of switching based on their own previous statements. Your whole argument seems to be predicated on the idea that any scum player worth their salt would switch to my wagon after Robz switched, and that's a flawed assumption.
Nice strawman.

My argument is: It is unlikely for a wagon on town with the IC on it to exist for an extended period of time without scum joining, or already being, on that wagon. Do you disagree?

Yes.
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faust

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #541 on: October 07, 2020, 11:29:54 am »

Doesn't change the fact that both of the wagons were on people the IC had voted for at one point or another. The question of whether a given scum player would switch from Joseph to me is entirely dependent on that player's style, priorities, and the optics of switching based on their own previous statements. Your whole argument seems to be predicated on the idea that any scum player worth their salt would switch to my wagon after Robz switched, and that's a flawed assumption.
Nice strawman.

My argument is: It is unlikely for a wagon on town with the IC on it to exist for an extended period of time without scum joining, or already being, on that wagon. Do you disagree?

Yes.

I'd love to hear some thoughts from Glooble on his D1 wagon.

Well, I've talked about ADK a lot. Robz is town. MiX was town. So that leave you, chairs and Space (taht's everyone who voted for me at all, I think.) See above for chairs- he goes back and forth between me and ADK in a way that I think it honestly pretty scummy. Space's initial vote for me reads like a joke vote. The weirdest thing is that they defend it like it was more serious than it initially appeared. Your vote doesn't come with a lot of explanation, I assume you just thought I was a better wagon than Joseph. But my wagon never had much substance to it.

Most likely scum is chairs I think. I'm still wary of ADK but my scumread on them has cooled somewhat, I think it was a little too emotionally motivated.

vote: chairs

PPE: faust voting for me
Here it seems like you are choosing a person on your wagon to vote for. Is that a correct reading and if so - why?
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EFHW

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #542 on: October 07, 2020, 11:34:08 am »

Most probable: One scum on Joseph, one on Glooble, one elsewhere.

I think faust's theory is unfortunately flawed. Robz voting town!Glooble wouldn't be enough to draw scum off the Joseph wagon. And there was no real case on Glooble. There's much more cover for voting Joseph. As for wanting a non-VT exile, I rarely feel as scum that I have the luxury of that kind of choice. One point in favor of faust's theory is that there was daychat and scum could have coordinated to choose town!Glooble over town!Joseph. But I think that would be too obvious once Glooble flipped town, so they wouldn't have done that.

PPE: 4
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #543 on: October 07, 2020, 11:37:02 am »

Didds and chairs were off both wagons. I'll check to see if either of them had positioned themselves where they couldn't get on one wagon or the other.
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Glooble

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #544 on: October 07, 2020, 11:50:22 am »


Here it seems like you are choosing a person on your wagon to vote for. Is that a correct reading and if so - why?

It's not a correct reading. I've been scumreading chairs all game. The fact that he was on my wagon is a coincidence. It has nothing to do with my reasons for voting him.
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EFHW

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #545 on: October 07, 2020, 01:55:41 pm »

At the time that Robz voted (at 416) for Glooble, both Didds (at 404) and chairs (at 405) had expressed townreads on Glooble. So they would be unlikely to join Robz. chairs did vote Glooble at 263. Not sure what changed. Both had also indicated willingness to vote Joseph. chairs voted him at 340 and switched to ADK at 405, in support of Glooble's case against them.
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #546 on: October 07, 2020, 03:31:45 pm »

@Glooble responding to earlier point:
I meant to say that it's scummy from faust and Galzria (especially Galzria!) to have been such a small factor this far, being how much they usually influence the game. It's not even about the activity level, just that they aren't really a big part of discussion in any way, although (my feel without rereading is) that faust has been coming to the center more. It's kind of a scum read borne from lack of towny evidence, if you will. For guys with their reputation, laying low early makes a lot of sense as scum, because it's tough to be the at the center of the attention for days on end and avoid the exile every time.

I don't think faust has been a non-presence, but Galz absolutely has been.
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chairs

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #547 on: October 07, 2020, 03:46:00 pm »

Ghost Galz is scum Galz.

vote: Galzria

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #548 on: October 07, 2020, 05:09:05 pm »

My best guess is that Galz is camping with Swowl. But that is just a guess.

Not a bad observation, although Iím not sure itís right. Scum Galz seems more present than that, yeah?

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #549 on: October 07, 2020, 06:15:46 pm »

Iím reading and following along, but Iím super swamped right now my apologies for not bring more engaged. Hopefully Iíll be out from under soon.

For me, Eevee and EFHW are on the scummy side of the street. Chairs is close to them.

Space and Glooble somewhere in the middle. Galz I guess, too.

ADK, faust, and Dylan on the friendly side.
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