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Author Topic: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Game Over! Skum Wins!  (Read 15290 times)

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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #500 on: October 05, 2020, 05:24:59 pm »

MiX is a weird kill to me. In my last scum game, my team tried to use the amount of attention and distraction he generates to our advantage. Obviously this scum team did not see similar value here.

Yeah, we left MiX alive and misfiring to great effect there, but the fact remains he's a high-volume poster, so if the scumteam thought he was too townie, they may have wanted him out of the way in the hope of stalling the game more or something. I also agree with EFHW that you being alive points to the possibility of a doctor, unless it's some kind of scum gambit, but I'm not sure what advantage they'd think they're getting if leaving you deliberately alive as IC and risking a kill that could have been on a VT seemed worthwhile.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #501 on: October 05, 2020, 05:40:18 pm »

re: Dylan's long post, I agree with him on most of his points. I don't have a scumread on Galzria, though.

People who were excited by Dylan's scum!Joseph narrative: Dylan, Galzria, Eevee, Glooble, chairs.
People who were not: EFHW, Didds, faust, Space, ADK, Robz, MiX (?).

I think it's reasonable to assume there is at least one scum in {Galz, Eevee, Glooble, chairs}.

Not quite sure what you mean by "excited" in this context, but I did say to Joseph at #353 that I thought Dylan's criticism was spot on.

I think I'm about 88% sure there's at least one scum in that set of four.. but that's because with two players flipped, an IC, and knowing my own alignment, there are essentially 3 scum in 9 unknown players. Picking any four out of them has only about a 12% chance of not having at least one scum in the group, without taking any reads or behaviour into account.
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chairs

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 1!!!!
« Reply #502 on: October 05, 2020, 06:59:16 pm »

Question for chairs. What changed between here:

Vote: glooble

I think the adk glooble interaction has me ready to vote one of them off the island and I think glooble has come off scummier in the interactions, personally.

and here:

Am I really lurking that much? Man, sorry. It doesn't feel like it on my end.

I think this it Town gloobs

I think the ADK argument from gloobs makes a lot of sense.

Vote: adk

And now you're back on me again?



I'd love to hear some thoughts from Glooble on his D1 wagon.

Well, I've talked about ADK a lot. Robz is town. MiX was town. So that leave you, chairs and Space (taht's everyone who voted for me at all, I think.) See above for chairs- he goes back and forth between me and ADK in a way that I think it honestly pretty scummy. Space's initial vote for me reads like a joke vote. The weirdest thing is that they defend it like it was more serious than it initially appeared. Your vote doesn't come with a lot of explanation, I assume you just thought I was a better wagon than Joseph. But my wagon never had much substance to it.

Most likely scum is chairs I think. I'm still wary of ADK but my scumread on them has cooled somewhat, I think it was a little too emotionally motivated.

vote: chairs

PPE: faust voting for me

What happened mostly is that my votes and reads are mercurial, as always. This is not news ::) I always gutfeel my way through games, and I'm usually only really thinking about the last page or two of posts, tops, unless I have -just- read X pages (and even then, I find I just tie myself in knots if I don't just let everything flow like waves against the shore and see what treasure gets stuck in the sand).

WestCoastDidds

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #503 on: October 05, 2020, 07:10:51 pm »

I quite like this use of “mercurial”!

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 1!!!!
« Reply #504 on: October 05, 2020, 08:18:33 pm »

vote: chairs

PPE: faust voting for me

Goddamnit, you're town aren't you
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faust

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #505 on: October 06, 2020, 02:31:07 am »

Vote: Glooble

What's your reasoning?
Robz voted for Glooble here:

Vote: Glooble is fine by me, actually. Definitely better than Joseph.
and noone joined in. This is despite Joseph already having claimed VT (meaning scum would prefer another exile). So there's only 2 options: Either the Glooble wagon already had 1-2 scum on it. The wagon at the time was:

Glooble (4): ADK, Space, faust, Robz888

So that would put scum among Space/ADK. But Space abandons the wagon shortly after, which there is no good reason for. So my preliminary conclusion is: There is scum among ADK/Glooble, and right now I'm liking Glooble more for that.
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faust

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #506 on: October 06, 2020, 02:32:27 am »

Vote: Glooble

What's your reasoning?
Robz voted for Glooble here:

Vote: Glooble is fine by me, actually. Definitely better than Joseph.
and noone joined in. This is despite Joseph already having claimed VT (meaning scum would prefer another exile). So there's only 2 options: Either the Glooble wagon already had 1-2 scum on it. The wagon at the time was:

Glooble (4): ADK, Space, faust, Robz888

So that would put scum among Space/ADK. But Space abandons the wagon shortly after, which there is no good reason for. So my preliminary conclusion is: There is scum among ADK/Glooble, and right now I'm liking Glooble more for that.
EBWOP: the missing "or" for the "either" is of course "or Glooble is scum".
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #507 on: October 06, 2020, 06:11:57 am »

Glooble (4): ADK, Space, faust, Robz888

So that would put scum among Space/ADK. But Space abandons the wagon shortly after, which there is no good reason for. So my preliminary conclusion is: There is scum among ADK/Glooble, and right now I'm liking Glooble more for that.

Your communication is perhaps a bit sloppy, but I think the logic holds.

At first, you mean that from your point of view, there's at least one scum in {Glooble, Space, ADK}.

You say there's not good reason for me to abandon the Glooble wagon, though previously you'd agreed with ADK that it would make perfect sense for scum!me to leave a wagon on scum!Glooble. So I think what you mean here is that the only good reason for my move would be if Glooble were scum anyway, hence it being better overall for you to flip Glooble.

Given that, I agree that you can narrow it to at least one scum amongst {ADK, Glooble}, if you assume a four-towns-on-town wagon in this context (e.g. with the presence of the IC giving scum extra permission/courage to vote) is highly unlikely. That wagon configuration you quote persisted from #385, when Robz moved onto Glooble, till #423, when I switched to Joseph. I think everyone except EFHW made at least one post in that interval, so maybe that assumption is actually stronger than for most four-towns-on-town wagons.

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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #508 on: October 06, 2020, 06:14:51 am »

Looking more at the #385-#423 period, the only vote to happen in there was that Chairs moved from Joseph to ADK at #404. That seems to make a Chairs-Glooble scum partnership unlikely, since it reduces the main competing wagon, making the Glooble-wagon joint-largest.

If Chairs is scum, that would put more suspicion on ADK and (from my point of view) faust, and make Glooble more townie. I think that's worth considering, since I feel like Chairs is playing a kind of different game to normal. Can other people who've played more with Chairs recently reassure me that he's not seeming odd?
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #509 on: October 06, 2020, 08:40:10 am »

I would be hard pressed to describe chairs’ play with any sort of consistency. He is always odd to me. One thing that I’d say is different in this game is that he is a bit more present than he has been in the past. Obviously there are lots of reasons why that could be that case, but the result is that he has more interactions than normal.

So, if you are finding something off, you’re probably not wrong.

chairs

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #510 on: October 06, 2020, 09:46:54 am »

Sorry for being present?  ;D

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #511 on: October 06, 2020, 10:44:28 am »

Looking more at the #385-#423 period, the only vote to happen in there was that Chairs moved from Joseph to ADK at #404. That seems to make a Chairs-Glooble scum partnership unlikely, since it reduces the main competing wagon, making the Glooble-wagon joint-largest.

If Chairs is scum, that would put more suspicion on ADK and (from my point of view) faust, and make Glooble more townie. I think that's worth considering, since I feel like Chairs is playing a kind of different game to normal. Can other people who've played more with Chairs recently reassure me that he's not seeming odd?
I also think he's off. Never a fan of the "I'm just erratic" defense, either.

Vote: chairs
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EFHW

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #512 on: October 06, 2020, 11:29:31 am »

vote: Eevee. He's been voting opportunistically, not scumhunting.
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #513 on: October 06, 2020, 11:48:38 am »

Vote: Glooble

Should have stuck with my gut.
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #514 on: October 06, 2020, 12:55:39 pm »

Vote: Eevee

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #515 on: October 06, 2020, 02:01:48 pm »

Someone please explain faust's case on me I legit don't get it.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #516 on: October 06, 2020, 02:06:09 pm »

vote: Eevee. He's been voting opportunistically, not scumhunting.
My effort this gameday hasnt been great!
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #517 on: October 06, 2020, 02:07:13 pm »

Vote: Glooble

Should have stuck with my gut.
Why? I thought he was one of the townier players d1, admittedly not so anymore d2.
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #518 on: October 06, 2020, 02:12:19 pm »

vote: Eevee. He's been voting opportunistically, not scumhunting.
My effort this gameday hasnt been great!

Speaking of which, where is Galzria and what does he think?
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #519 on: October 06, 2020, 02:27:35 pm »

Vote: Glooble

Should have stuck with my gut.
Why? I thought he was one of the townier players d1, admittedly not so anymore d2.

Why? What have I done day 2 that isn't townie. Be specific. Show reciepts.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #520 on: October 06, 2020, 02:27:55 pm »

For that matter, what did I do day 1 that was towny?
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #521 on: October 06, 2020, 04:07:53 pm »

Someone please explain faust's case on me I legit don't get it.
Space already explained it.
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #522 on: October 06, 2020, 04:34:39 pm »

Vote Count 2.3:
chairs (3): ADK, Glooble, Eevee
Glooble (3): chairs, faust, Robz888
Eevee (2): EFHW, WCD

Not Voting (3): Dylan, Galz, Space,


With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.
Day 2 ends on October 9th at 6:15PM Forum Time.
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #523 on: October 06, 2020, 06:05:33 pm »

Catching up now.

My instinct is that the people who followed dylan onto joseph are much more likely to be scum than he is, particularly since pretty much every one of those votes was justified by saying "Dylan's case seems solid". If he's scum he's bold scum, and I don't feel like I've played enough with him to tell if that's his style

This is a really good point I think.



Space seems more than usually preoccupied with how she's coming off as, and maybe kind of overexplaining herself? The points she's making make logical sense to me though, but she's so eloquent that maybe I shouldn't read too much into it.

ADK continues to look towny to me, also think Glooble is probably town from yesterday. I think Dylan is towny for pushing Joseph, paradoxically enough. faust I don't have much of an impression on yet which is weird, same for Galzria which I'd say makes both more than mildly suspicious.

I would guess that scum killed Mix because he's headstrong and his reads were good, at least in some capacity? Could also be a sign for Robz that his reads yesterday were not correct.

Parts of this post feel off to me.  The first half of the Space bit is a rehash of an observation I made previously.  The next couple sentences seem to be gently nudging away from where some of the focus has been (particularly regarding the number of people scumreading or willing to exile Glooble).  But the next sentence is phrased in such a way to sound like both faust and galz are null ("don't have much of an impression on yet... same for Galz"), but this makes both "more than mildly suspicious." At first read, I was left with the impression of mild suspicion, but the "more than" bit actually suggests that the null read on those two actually makes them both very suspicious.  I don't know, just something about that paragraph feels contrived or forced somehow that reads as not a genuine set of reads.

Didds #463 - Why were you originally thinking EFHW was the right way to go?

Most of it is feels, but I found her extended discussion with MiX on D1 was a lot of material with very little content.  My thought was one of them was scummy based on that, and her more so than him.  Her general level of activity is rather higher than normal, but these are strange times...my level is lower than normal b/c of work so that isn't a huge factor. Finally, the way she joined the quick wagon on me, then unvoted when she realized I hadn't voted for Joseph but then snarked at me for being distracted was all kind of off feeling.  The reason I went back to voting for her was the hammer long before deadline when she had said that she thought him town. Not super scummy, but not redeeming either. Added to the fact that she was Mixy's top scum read, its seems a better place to be than anywhere else at the moment. I am not so certain about my feelings that I am gonna get on my pony and ride around arguing my case, but I don't see any reason to move my vote.

I'd buy that.

re: Dylan's long post, I agree with him on most of his points. I don't have a scumread on Galzria, though.

People who were excited by Dylan's scum!Joseph narrative: Dylan, Galzria, Eevee, Glooble, chairs.
People who were not: EFHW, Didds, faust, Space, ADK, Robz, MiX (?).

I think it's reasonable to assume there is at least one scum in {Galz, Eevee, Glooble, chairs}.

Not quite sure what you mean by "excited" in this context, but I did say to Joseph at #353 that I thought Dylan's criticism was spot on.

I think I'm about 88% sure there's at least one scum in that set of four.. but that's because with two players flipped, an IC, and knowing my own alignment, there are essentially 3 scum in 9 unknown players. Picking any four out of them has only about a 12% chance of not having at least one scum in the group, without taking any reads or behaviour into account.

Could be misremembering old games, but random math Space is town!Space iirc.

vote: Eevee. He's been voting opportunistically, not scumhunting.

I noticed that too. I don't know that it's the best case today though.

Someone please explain faust's case on me I legit don't get it.
Space already explained it.

I mean, the way I understand it in case Space's explanation didn't is that after Joseph claimed VT, scum would prefer to push through a different exile. The IC stated a preference for glooble over Joseph, and so it would have been easy for scum to follow there instead. Nobody followed though, which means one of the following is likely true: A) glooble is town and 1-2 scum were already on wagon or B) glooble is scum so scum didn't move there (note: scum could have also been bussing scum!glooble already, in which case A and B are not mutually exclusive, although that's probably not the most likely case).

As far as wagon analysis based arguments go, that one seems actually fairly strong to me, so

Vote: glooble

Looking at current wagon comps, I do feel better about {chairs, faust, IC} versus {ADK, glooble, Eevee} or {EFHW, WCD}.
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 2 Has Begun!
« Reply #524 on: October 06, 2020, 06:21:46 pm »

re: scum!Glooble narrative,  scum could have been caught on Joseph's wagon. Having said how great that case was, shifting to town!Glooble would have looked weird. Also, sleeping the IC looks scummy.
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