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Author Topic: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Game Over! Skum Wins!  (Read 15283 times)

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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #900 on: October 23, 2020, 04:12:50 pm »

Just you know, don't exile Didds yet.

Then someone has to unvote....

Robz888

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #901 on: October 23, 2020, 04:23:39 pm »

unvote
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #902 on: October 23, 2020, 04:32:04 pm »

No one has permission to vote until faust says what he wants to say.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #903 on: October 23, 2020, 04:37:17 pm »

I have things to say too.. please let me finish the case I'm working on.
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #904 on: October 23, 2020, 05:04:12 pm »

I've been going through Galz's ISO wall-post and his VCA from the end of D4. I realise Didds has also been doing the same thing, and may already have posted some of these points, but I've been grouping my observations by which hypothesis they support, so I hope you don't mind if I post all the items in my own format.

Factors in favour of scum!Didds/town!Chairs, from Galz's ISOing:
 a. WCD is more likely than most others to push for a MiX exile N1.
 b. WCD has opinions on all players at #97, rather than skipping anyone. I find this a real stretch as "scum" evidence goes, because I also always feel the pressure to be inclusive in these things, especially as town.
 c. WCD's #691/#692 suggests me or Eevee for scum, whereas before, she pointed at ADK and chairs. Actually, given that she was specifically reeling off the names at the end of the Glooble Mixile, I'm not that surprised, and don't see this as the big turnaround that Galz characterizes it as at all.
 d. Galz says that Didds is trying very hard to seem like she's been pushing Eevee while allegedly not being committed. Looking at my vote count history, she pushed EFHW more than anyone else, but did spend just over 100 posts of D3 on the Eevee wagon before switching to the Chairs wagon (which at that point contained Eevee and Glooble).

Factors in favour of scum!Chairs/town!Didds, from Galz's case:
 a. Eevee's post at #101 calling Didds townie.
 b. Eevee's reads post at #201 is more "middle ground" on Chairs and faust, so Galz concludes there's likely to be a scum there rather than in ADK.
 c1. Eevee only voting Chairs then Chairs wasn't much of a going concern, as noted in Galz's read commenting on post #398.
 c2. Commenting on the same post, Galz says he thinks his "WCD needle" is reading "slightly townier again".
 d. In the "WCD" reads section, Galz points out that WCD asked the same question about Joseph that Eevee had just asked, which isn't something scum-who-have-daychat would probably aim to do.
 e. In Galz's Chairs re-read, Galz comments on how spread-out Chairs's voting is, and how his overall behaviour is like he has a quota to fill.
 f. Galz specifically says that there's more evidence on Chairs for scumminess in the VCA, whereas all the evidence for Didds is in her posts (which I think aren't nearly as scummy as Galz makes out).

Other comments on Galz's mega-post:
 a. Galz's comment on #549 his WCD re-read starts "If we assume Eevee and WCD are partners...", which is a biased starting point given that he hasn't given much evidence at all that it's really valid to scumread her.
 b. Galz mentioned that "WCD has a LOT of scum points against her", but I feel like several of his points are very weak compared specifically to the scum!chairs points.
 c. Galz's read on ADK is extremely hedgey, which is fine for town who just doesn't know how to form a good opinion, but is at odds with the way he picks up a bunch of minor points of WCD and makes them into a scum-case. It's very consistent with a scum player who knows town is about to exile a townie and wants to gain extra credibility for his "reads".


And onto Galz's VCA at #833, which is after the ADK hammer:

Factors in favour of scum!Didds/town!Chairs, from Galz's case:
 a. WCD was the only unflipped person (from Galz's perspective in which he can count himself green) not on the Glooble wagon at #645.
   -- this would be weakish reasoning even if it didn't totally ignore the fact that none of the rest of us have a solid read on Galz.

Factors in favour of scum!Chairs/town!Didds, from Galz's case:
 a. The quick and opportunistic way that Chairs follows Robz and EFHW onto WCD at #308.
 b. Galz says that Chairs's move from Joseph (whose wagon also contained Eevee) to ADK (wagon with only EFHW) at #404 didn't look good.
    -- I don't think it looks like much of anything, except possibly if Galz is scum, in which case it makes sense not to want all three scum to end up on Joseph.
   -- Not sure why Galz is using this as a point against Chairs.

Other comments on Galz's VCA post:
 a. He concludes by saying that WCD is by far the scummiest, whereas my re-read of his ISO reads of Didds, Chairs and Eevee doesn't count up nearly as many scum!Didds points from Galz as scum!Chairs points.
 b. The "ideal scum voting spread" that Galz attributes to WCD is mainly predicated around the fact that Galz colours himself green. This thing that Galz presents as a big case against WCD should essentially mean nothing to the rest of us for whom Galz is still an unknown entity.
 c. An Eevee-Galz-Chairs scumteam has one point in the game where all three were on the same player (Joseph) D1, but Chairs was last to join and first to leave, which is entirely consistent with someone caring about VCA and suggesting in day-chat that he might want to move again.


Lastly, factors in favour of scum!Didds/town!Chairs, from me:
 a. Eevee votes Chairs for quite a while in the middle of D2, including when Chairs is the biggest wagon (early in the day, at 3 votes). However, this isn't super-strong evidence, because meanwhile Didds is on an Eevee wagon, so scum is bussing here either way around.

And factors in favour of scum!Chairs/town!Didds, from me:
 a. Eevee's move onto the Glooble wagon at the end of D2 locked us into a Glooble exile when Chairs was the next-most-likely wagon.
     -- Eevee had previously been on the Chairs wagon when it looked small and harmless.
 b. Chairs's quick-hammer of ADK was really unnecessary. Meanwhile, Didds was evidently online and posting at around that time, but did not choose to join the IC-approved mixile wagon.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #905 on: October 23, 2020, 05:11:15 pm »

To summarise, from my point of view, there are four possible scum-pairings, given that we have to have at least one scum in {Chairs, Didds}:

Chairs-Galz: This one makes sense with Galz's biased re-reading of Chairs with respect to Didds.
Didds-faust: This one could be a possibility, though I do townread faust.
Chairs-faust: Less likely, given faust's willingness to go for Chairs here.
Didds-Galz: Highly unlikely given how much Galz is trying to get Didds exiled.

I feel like I'm seeing a split where the top two pairings are already looking more likely than the lower two, i.e. each of the "doctors" has one partner more likely than the others.
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Galzria

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #906 on: October 23, 2020, 05:12:16 pm »

Youíll notice that I approached every player looking for scum narratives, not town ones. To say I opened on any specific player with a bias in judgement isnít true to the intent of the reread. I was looking for scum in every player. Some players that narrative didnít fit, and I ended up town reading them. Others, it fit quite well.

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Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

WestCoastDidds

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #907 on: October 23, 2020, 05:39:12 pm »

To summarise, from my point of view, there are four possible scum-pairings, given that we have to have at least one scum in {Chairs, Didds}:

Chairs-Galz: This one makes sense with Galz's biased re-reading of Chairs with respect to Didds.
Didds-faust: This one could be a possibility, though I do townread faust.
Chairs-faust: Less likely, given faust's willingness to go for Chairs here.
Didds-Galz: Highly unlikely given how much Galz is trying to get Didds exiled.

I feel like I'm seeing a split where the top two pairings are already looking more likely than the lower two, i.e. each of the "doctors" has one partner more likely than the others.

Thanks, Space. I appreciate knowing that Iím not just paranoid. Galz really is trying to get me exiled!

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #908 on: October 23, 2020, 05:40:16 pm »

To summarise, from my point of view, there are four possible scum-pairings, given that we have to have at least one scum in {Chairs, Didds}:

Chairs-Galz: This one makes sense with Galz's biased re-reading of Chairs with respect to Didds.
Didds-faust: This one could be a possibility, though I do townread faust.
Chairs-faust: Less likely, given faust's willingness to go for Chairs here.
Didds-Galz: Highly unlikely given how much Galz is trying to get Didds exiled.

I feel like I'm seeing a split where the top two pairings are already looking more likely than the lower two, i.e. each of the "doctors" has one partner more likely than the others.

Thanks, Space. I appreciate knowing that Iím not just paranoid. Galz really is trying to get me exiled!

I agree.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

WestCoastDidds

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #909 on: October 23, 2020, 06:04:31 pm »

Stinker!

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #910 on: October 24, 2020, 03:30:55 am »

So. These are the things that were said towards the end of the last Day about Didds:

In the span of 3 posts, Didds has shattered my conviction that ADK is the better exile.
Didds is also a top candidate for being scum.
That leaves me feeling the following:

Scum: WCD
One Scum in: {faust, ADK}
Probably Town: Space
Town: Chairs
Scum to chum:
Didds
Galz
faust
Space
I am fine with this exile and glad it wasn't dragged out any longer.

My suspicions at this point are basically Didds or chairs.

That is, every single living player except herself expressed a scumread on Didds (the only player who didn't was ADK).

Now why would scum send her into a 1v1? It's basically guaranteed she loses. All this achieves is a scum exile and I guess outing the Doctor. But we were going to have claims today anyways, so they didn't need to do it for that reason. If there is only a single Doctor claim then that person still isn't ICfied, which all in all seems like the much better outcome. And if they did want to make it a 1v1, they could have chosen the other scum for it.
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #911 on: October 24, 2020, 09:05:14 am »

Now why would scum send her into a 1v1? It's basically guaranteed she loses.

If scum considers her a lost resource anyway, why not send her into a 1v1 that outs our doctor in the process?
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #912 on: October 24, 2020, 09:25:46 am »

I donít think if I was scum theyíd have piled on to get me the lost resource stage.

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #913 on: October 24, 2020, 09:27:35 am »

I feel like scum!faust wouldn't have made that last point about scum!Didds, because if the two of them are in cahoots, because following any sort of conversation in the scum QT about likely outcomes for today, that would have to just seem like too weak an observation.

If they're not both scum, then Chairs-Galz seems to me like the most likely pairing. However, of the two remaining possibilities, Chairs-faust seems a lot more possible than Didds-Galz, meaning that Chairs is the most scummy common denominator.
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #914 on: October 24, 2020, 09:35:35 am »

People pushing the scum!Didds case, who do you think the corresponding third scum is, or at least what's the likelihood of each of the other possibilities from your point of view?

There are so few possible pairings left for most of us (except perhaps Robz) that I feel like we really should be able to evaluate three-way partner interactions for any given set.
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Robz888

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #915 on: October 24, 2020, 03:10:04 pm »

So. These are the things that were said towards the end of the last Day about Didds:

In the span of 3 posts, Didds has shattered my conviction that ADK is the better exile.
Didds is also a top candidate for being scum.
That leaves me feeling the following:

Scum: WCD
One Scum in: {faust, ADK}
Probably Town: Space
Town: Chairs
Scum to chum:
Didds
Galz
faust
Space
I am fine with this exile and glad it wasn't dragged out any longer.

My suspicions at this point are basically Didds or chairs.

That is, every single living player except herself expressed a scumread on Didds (the only player who didn't was ADK).

Now why would scum send her into a 1v1? It's basically guaranteed she loses. All this achieves is a scum exile and I guess outing the Doctor. But we were going to have claims today anyways, so they didn't need to do it for that reason. If there is only a single Doctor claim then that person still isn't ICfied, which all in all seems like the much better outcome. And if they did want to make it a 1v1, they could have chosen the other scum for it.

I think the other scum basically gave Didds up for dead and didnít want to look like the only person who didnít find Didds scummy. This actually applies to you pretty well!
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #916 on: October 24, 2020, 03:34:14 pm »

Rob, who are your town reads?

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #917 on: October 24, 2020, 03:38:22 pm »

Vote Count 5.2:

WCD (1): chairs
chairs (2): faust, WCD
Not Voting (3): Galz, Space, Robz,

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
Day 5 starts now and ends October 29th at 7:40pm Forum Time.
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Skum: 6 wins, 5 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 2 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #918 on: October 24, 2020, 03:39:20 pm »

People pushing the scum!Didds case, who do you think the corresponding third scum is, or at least what's the likelihood of each of the other possibilities from your point of view?

There are so few possible pairings left for most of us (except perhaps Robz) that I feel like we really should be able to evaluate three-way partner interactions for any given set.

Chairs: Less than 5% likely.
Space: About 30% likely.
Faust: About 70% likely.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #919 on: October 24, 2020, 03:40:22 pm »

Grabbing my computer to read up now.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Robz888

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #920 on: October 24, 2020, 03:55:32 pm »

Rob, who are your town reads?

Just space at this point.
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #921 on: October 25, 2020, 03:36:01 am »

Now why would scum send her into a 1v1? It's basically guaranteed she loses.

If scum considers her a lost resource anyway, why not send her into a 1v1 that outs our doctor in the process?
Because it#s better for them to not create another IC.
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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #922 on: October 25, 2020, 03:39:06 am »

I think the other scum basically gave Didds up for dead and didnít want to look like the only person who didnít find Didds scummy. This actually applies to you pretty well!
This applies to everybody? I am confused. I think I was one of the first people to express suspicion on Didds, so saying I did it because she was scumread by everyone else is just plain wrong. And if I gave her up for dead already, why defend her now?
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

SpaceAnemone

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 1!!!!
« Reply #923 on: October 25, 2020, 08:50:09 am »

Here are a couple of early posts where faust (whom I'm currently ISOing) is suspicious of Chairs, and Didds is brought up first as a wagon target, and second as a person querying faust's consistency:

Meep. The Joseph wagon is understandable, with all the inconsistency. But I really doubt they are the kind of player to claim VT in that spot as scum.

Non-Joseph votes really need to consolidate. Is noone liking chairs? The way he hopped onto the Didds wagon just to immediately abandon it is was pretty suspicious.

faust, you said chairs was scummy for the vote bouncing around yesterday. EFHW did the same thing plus another vote/invite on MiX and snapped at me for voting for her. Is that les scummy than chairs?
Yes. With EFHW I can see why she voted and unvoted when she did, and that largely seems to make sense.

I don't think those interactions feel partnered to me, even though this is early-game stuff where scum still had daychat, so it's tough to be sure. For example, if scum had been trying to use the comparison between scummy-looking Chairs and alledgedly-similar-looking EFHW, why not then develop that towards a scumread on EFHW?
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Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

Robz888

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Re: M132: Cats and Dogs Mafia - Day 5
« Reply #924 on: October 25, 2020, 09:14:13 am »

I think the other scum basically gave Didds up for dead and didnít want to look like the only person who didnít find Didds scummy. This actually applies to you pretty well!
This applies to everybody? I am confused. I think I was one of the first people to express suspicion on Didds, so saying I did it because she was scumread by everyone else is just plain wrong. And if I gave her up for dead already, why defend her now?

I donít know if you did at some earlier point, but your whole ďyou just undermined my town read on youĒ thing came later than other people reading Didds as scum, I think.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.
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