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Author Topic: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Game Over! Town Wins!  (Read 130768 times)

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Uncleeurope

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 3!
« Reply #825 on: May 22, 2021, 08:05:04 pm »

I liked his first post better.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 3!
« Reply #826 on: May 22, 2021, 08:18:09 pm »

I have a thought.

I wonder if the baddies are choosing the kills a night in advance.

That would make sense as to why the players on the opposite timeline keep dying, and also why gkrieg died first. In fact, I would go so far as to say that I know at least part of that theory is true.


(Cue Awaclus saying I know this because I am scum)
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 3!
« Reply #827 on: May 22, 2021, 08:18:25 pm »

I have not had time to finish my reread.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 3!
« Reply #828 on: May 22, 2021, 08:20:53 pm »

I have a thought.

I wonder if the baddies are choosing the kills a night in advance.

That would make sense as to why the players on the opposite timeline keep dying, and also why gkrieg died first. In fact, I would go so far as to say that I know at least part of that theory is true.


(Cue Awaclus saying I know this because I am scum)

But...there was no timeline for N0 or whatever. So how does that work?

Is the part that is true gkrieg dying first?
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Glooble

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 3!
« Reply #829 on: May 22, 2021, 08:25:17 pm »

Awaclus’s post stinks of the sink cost fallacy. “We should do this so a townie didn’t die in vain”... idk. Not sure I buy that reasoning. He’s dead either way, you know?

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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Uncleeurope

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 3!
« Reply #830 on: May 22, 2021, 08:26:10 pm »

I have a thought.

I wonder if the baddies are choosing the kills a night in advance.

That would make sense as to why the players on the opposite timeline keep dying, and also why gkrieg died first. In fact, I would go so far as to say that I know at least part of that theory is true.


(Cue Awaclus saying I know this because I am scum)

But...there was no timeline for N0 or whatever. So how does that work?

Is the part that is true gkrieg dying first?

Poison is a mechanism in this game.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 3!
« Reply #831 on: May 22, 2021, 08:31:43 pm »

Awaclus’s post stinks of the sink cost fallacy. “We should do this so a townie didn’t die in vain”... idk. Not sure I buy that reasoning. He’s dead either way, you know?

It's basically committing to use the information we got. Seems pretty standard to me.

I have a thought.

I wonder if the baddies are choosing the kills a night in advance.

That would make sense as to why the players on the opposite timeline keep dying, and also why gkrieg died first. In fact, I would go so far as to say that I know at least part of that theory is true.


(Cue Awaclus saying I know this because I am scum)

But...there was no timeline for N0 or whatever. So how does that work?

Is the part that is true gkrieg dying first?

Poison is a mechanism in this game.

Oh. Okay.
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Uncleeurope

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 3!
« Reply #832 on: May 22, 2021, 08:41:07 pm »

Awaclus’s post stinks of the sink cost fallacy. “We should do this so a townie didn’t die in vain”... idk. Not sure I buy that reasoning. He’s dead either way, you know?

Don’t you agree with him? What’s your problem?
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 3!
« Reply #833 on: May 22, 2021, 09:26:15 pm »

Awaclus’s post stinks of the sink cost fallacy. “We should do this so a townie didn’t die in vain”... idk. Not sure I buy that reasoning. He’s dead either way, you know?

It's specifically not the sunk cost fallacy. In a sunk cost fallacy, you keep spending more resources on a thing because you have spent resources on it.

In this case, we're going to keep spending more resources on a thing because the thing (the info) is still around and it's still worth something. I'm just using the fact that we were willing to spend an exile killing a townie to estimate how much it's worth.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 3!
« Reply #834 on: May 22, 2021, 09:30:15 pm »

Awaclus’s post stinks of the sink cost fallacy. “We should do this so a townie didn’t die in vain”... idk. Not sure I buy that reasoning. He’s dead either way, you know?

Don’t you agree with him? What’s your problem?

It’s possible to agree with someone’s conclusion while disagreeing with how they reached them.

Anyway, I genuinely have not decided between you and pps.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 3!
« Reply #835 on: May 22, 2021, 09:32:20 pm »

And yes, the value of that information has dropped somewhat since we did the thing, in the light of information that we have learned later. But in order to drop the value of something worth more than an exile and a townie so low that we'd almost completely discard it, the information needs to have almost as much of an impact as an exile and a townie.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 3!
« Reply #836 on: May 22, 2021, 09:53:28 pm »

Uncle softclaiming poison doctor there.

I mean, makes sense to do something when you are one of the possible exiles.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 3!
« Reply #837 on: May 22, 2021, 09:54:08 pm »

Actually, virus/vaccine would be a cool mafia flavor for poison/antidote.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 3!
« Reply #838 on: May 22, 2021, 09:54:25 pm »

PPS is correct, btw.  I have zero interest in this timeline.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 3!
« Reply #839 on: May 22, 2021, 09:54:47 pm »

I mean, exile Glooble.  That's all I'm interesting in seeing.
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Uncleeurope

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 3!
« Reply #840 on: May 22, 2021, 09:56:19 pm »

Uncle softclaiming poison doctor there.

I mean, makes sense to do something when you are one of the possible exiles.

Not the softest I’ve been, but it felt prudent.

Plus now you guys get to theorize about poison stuff with me!
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 3!
« Reply #841 on: May 22, 2021, 11:12:53 pm »

Awaclus’s post stinks of the sink cost fallacy. “We should do this so a townie didn’t die in vain”... idk. Not sure I buy that reasoning. He’s dead either way, you know?

Don’t you agree with him? What’s your problem?

It’s possible to agree with someone’s conclusion while disagreeing with how they reached them.

Anyway, I genuinely have not decided between you and pps.

I may as well address this.

I agree with statement 1. My issue is it feels like your counter isn’t scum reading Awa, or actually doing anything to Awa, it’s just noting that his reasoning is bad. I don’t know why you care. It’s weird. It felt like that post accomplished very little.

Statement 2 is interesting in that it doesn’t interest me.

I’m Town, if that helps.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 3!
« Reply #842 on: May 22, 2021, 11:23:02 pm »

To be clear, I’m not scumreading Glooble for this, (I can’t if I think Hyper is bad) I am just questioning his logic and accomplishing very little.

Sooo...
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 3!
« Reply #843 on: May 22, 2021, 11:50:05 pm »

Prod: scolapasta and Dylan
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 3!
« Reply #844 on: May 22, 2021, 11:53:52 pm »

I have a thought.

I wonder if the baddies are choosing the kills a night in advance.

That would make sense as to why the players on the opposite timeline keep dying, and also why gkrieg died first. In fact, I would go so far as to say that I know at least part of that theory is true.


(Cue Awaclus saying I know this because I am scum)

Why does it explain that gkrieg died first? Maybe they targeted lurkers so the game would be more interesting.
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Uncleeurope

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 3!
« Reply #845 on: May 23, 2021, 12:00:15 am »

I have a thought.

I wonder if the baddies are choosing the kills a night in advance.

That would make sense as to why the players on the opposite timeline keep dying, and also why gkrieg died first. In fact, I would go so far as to say that I know at least part of that theory is true.


(Cue Awaclus saying I know this because I am scum)

Why does it explain that gkrieg died first? Maybe they targeted lurkers so the game would be more interesting.

Is that a confession or just an odd argument?

I postulated that they would choose a wildcard player that thy deemed as strong.

Obviously that would have been me, but I wasn’t in the game at night 0.

This is all based on the idea that they had to choose a player to kill before knowing anything.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 3!
« Reply #846 on: May 23, 2021, 12:14:27 am »

Prod: scolapasta and Dylan

I'm here, but busy weekend combined with Reverse TL, so...

I will find some time (probably Monday) to respond to ash's (incorrect) accusations of me. 
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 3!
« Reply #847 on: May 23, 2021, 01:05:51 am »

I have a thought.

I wonder if the baddies are choosing the kills a night in advance.

That would make sense as to why the players on the opposite timeline keep dying, and also why gkrieg died first. In fact, I would go so far as to say that I know at least part of that theory is true.


(Cue Awaclus saying I know this because I am scum)

Why does it explain that gkrieg died first? Maybe they targeted lurkers so the game would be more interesting.

Is that a confession or just an odd argument?

I postulated that they would choose a wildcard player that thy deemed as strong.

Obviously that would have been me, but I wasn’t in the game at night 0.

This is all based on the idea that they had to choose a player to kill before knowing anything.

Odd argument. But you were faust N0, and he would be a likely target.
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Uncleeurope

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 3!
« Reply #848 on: May 23, 2021, 01:09:13 am »

I think it’s worth considering that they are poisoning people in such a way that they want to avoid their poison target being lynched, which is why they are killing in the opposite timeline.
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Uncleeurope Eddie

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 3!
« Reply #849 on: May 23, 2021, 07:39:55 am »

I think it’s worth considering that they are poisoning people in such a way that they want to avoid their poison target being lynched, which is why they are killing in the opposite timeline.
That doesn't explain their choices of who to poison.  And they shouldn't know which timeline is next.
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