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Author Topic: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Game Over! Town Wins!  (Read 37443 times)

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Awaclus

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #350 on: May 09, 2021, 12:08:38 pm »

Basically, I think it is significantly more likely that there are 2 scum than 0 scum on your wagon, and thus a guess of 2 is far more valuable than a guess of 0 - with both guesses returning essentially the same information should the result come back "NO".

They don't return the same information. 2 coming back as "NO" tells us there's at most 1 scum, 0 coming back as "NO" tells us there's at least 1 scum. While we might expect both of those statements to be true, having them modconfirmed is a very substantial advantage over just assuming, because we can't count on assumptions being true (even when they actually are true).

Having "at most 1 scum" confirmed gives us ICs if the scum is killed, which is good, but having "at least 1 scum" confirmed gives us guilty children if the townies are killed, which is super good.

If we think it's safe to assume that there can't be more than 2 scum on the same timeline, then the information is almost the same regardless of what the result is (because then guessing 2 on-wagon is effectively the same as guessing 0 off-wagon) based on that assumption, but if it starts to look like it was a mistake to assume that, they're no longer the same information.
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Galzria

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #351 on: May 09, 2021, 12:08:58 pm »

I think you guess zero, even though I'm pretty sure the answer is 1 or 2. Guessing 1 and getting a no is the worst case scenario, because it tells us that there's either zero or two scum on the wagon. Guessing zero and getting a no is legitimately helpful. Guessing zero and getting a yes is astonishingly helpful, like basically solves the game helpful. Guessing 2 or more and getting a no is pretty useless, though getting a yes would be amazing.

Outside of trying to game the system though, that wagon was scummy af and I would be shocked if there were no scum on it. Glooble is a top scum read because his indignation over mathdude's "don't vote for me" post reads a bit inauthentic, and that's very much the sort of post scum would pounce on to get a misexile. But then the people who jumped on after also don't exactly scream town. But there's no way they're all scum, that would be way too obvious. Plus Awaclus is Awaclus, so the wagon hop with no explanation is pretty on brand.

So I think the scum on wagon are Glooble and maybe cube? I can't remember who the other vote was besides the self-hammer.

Honestly, maybe you go for 1 here after all. I mean, given how confident I am that the answer ISN'T zero maybe we can take that as a given and then get the answer to 1 vs more than one.

See, it's like you start to make your way to logic, and then fail to get all the way there.

You start by saying "Guessing 1 and getting a NO would be the worst case scenario, because then we don't know if it's 0 or 2" - First off, knowing it's "0 or 2" isn't horrible, because we can use our reads to determine which we feel is more likely, and if at any point somebody from that group turns scum (especially possible if we're in multi-ball), then we know the answer is 2.

But put aside that it isn't a horrible result and just take your argument at face value. You then go on to talk your way down to a "Maybe you should go 1 because I'm confident it's not 0". Let's assume he goes 1 and gets a YES. I would argue THAT is the worst possible result. That tells us that 1-in-4 is scum. Whoop-de-doo. Go roll a dice. We're not doing any better than random with that knowledge. And it's ESSENTIALLY the same result as getting a NO from a 0 or 2 guess - except a 0 or 2 guess give us much BETTER information should the result come back YES.

So if you believe that the expected scum count on Math's wagon is greater than 0 (1 or 2), then I think the best possible guess is clearly 2.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Awaclus

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #352 on: May 09, 2021, 12:09:58 pm »

If we think it's safe to assume that there can't be more than 2 scum on the same timeline, then the information is almost the same regardless of what the result is (because then guessing 2 on-wagon is effectively the same as guessing 0 off-wagon) based on that assumption, but if it starts to look like it was a mistake to assume that, they're no longer the same information.

Actually this is not even true, we only had 3 people off-wagon.
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Galzria

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #353 on: May 09, 2021, 12:11:49 pm »

Basically, I think it is significantly more likely that there are 2 scum than 0 scum on your wagon, and thus a guess of 2 is far more valuable than a guess of 0 - with both guesses returning essentially the same information should the result come back "NO".

They don't return the same information. 2 coming back as "NO" tells us there's at most 1 scum, 0 coming back as "NO" tells us there's at least 1 scum. While we might expect both of those statements to be true, having them modconfirmed is a very substantial advantage over just assuming, because we can't count on assumptions being true (even when they actually are true).

Having "at most 1 scum" confirmed gives us ICs if the scum is killed, which is good, but having "at least 1 scum" confirmed gives us guilty children if the townies are killed, which is super good.

If we think it's safe to assume that there can't be more than 2 scum on the same timeline, then the information is almost the same regardless of what the result is (because then guessing 2 on-wagon is effectively the same as guessing 0 off-wagon) based on that assumption, but if it starts to look like it was a mistake to assume that, they're no longer the same information.

"At Most 1 Scum" tells us that there is "At Least 1 scum" in the sub wagon that isn't on Math.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #354 on: May 09, 2021, 12:12:40 pm »

Basically, I think it is significantly more likely that there are 2 scum than 0 scum on your wagon, and thus a guess of 2 is far more valuable than a guess of 0 - with both guesses returning essentially the same information should the result come back "NO".

They don't return the same information. 2 coming back as "NO" tells us there's at most 1 scum, 0 coming back as "NO" tells us there's at least 1 scum. While we might expect both of those statements to be true, having them modconfirmed is a very substantial advantage over just assuming, because we can't count on assumptions being true (even when they actually are true).

Having "at most 1 scum" confirmed gives us ICs if the scum is killed, which is good, but having "at least 1 scum" confirmed gives us guilty children if the townies are killed, which is super good.

If we think it's safe to assume that there can't be more than 2 scum on the same timeline, then the information is almost the same regardless of what the result is (because then guessing 2 on-wagon is effectively the same as guessing 0 off-wagon) based on that assumption, but if it starts to look like it was a mistake to assume that, they're no longer the same information.

"At Most 1 Scum" tells us that there is "At Least 1 scum" in the sub wagon that isn't on Math.

Well, I guess that's assuming there's more than 1 scum in the timeline. Which I am.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

jotheonah

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #355 on: May 09, 2021, 12:13:02 pm »

Ok, now I'm fully caught up.

The fact that mathdude asked (begged) MiX to vote for him, and also voted for himself is big here. We of course don't know MiX is town, but his vote is very not scummy given it was engineered by mathdude.

It's kind of frustrating that mathdude took the hammer away from scum here too. Basically this is a really weird wagon because it was engineered by town and that makes it super hard to make assumptions about it.

hypercube E-1'd pretty casually. That could be scummy.

I guess if we have a conservative scum team, we're looking at zero or 1 and if we have an aggressive scum team we're looking at 2 at most. I think we can pretty much rule out three.

Because if MiX is scum, he was the second one to vote mathdude and his partners wouldn't jump on like that, at least not if there were two on the wagon already. They might hammer, if it looked like the best move, but they wouldn't vote in the third or fourth position.

I guess where I'm at here is that scum on this wagon, if any, are either Glooble or hypercube. Glooble AND hypercube is possible but unlikely. Maybe someone who has a better grasp of cube's meta can tell me whether he would E-1 a wagon with a partner on it this quickly & early in the day. But, contradicting what I said before, I think this could absolutely be an all-town wagon. Because of the weirdness of it.

I admire the gumption of pro-actively using this power like mathdude did and if it pays off it will be epic. But there are definite downsides.
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Awaclus

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #356 on: May 09, 2021, 12:15:30 pm »

Basically, I think it is significantly more likely that there are 2 scum than 0 scum on your wagon, and thus a guess of 2 is far more valuable than a guess of 0 - with both guesses returning essentially the same information should the result come back "NO".

They don't return the same information. 2 coming back as "NO" tells us there's at most 1 scum, 0 coming back as "NO" tells us there's at least 1 scum. While we might expect both of those statements to be true, having them modconfirmed is a very substantial advantage over just assuming, because we can't count on assumptions being true (even when they actually are true).

Having "at most 1 scum" confirmed gives us ICs if the scum is killed, which is good, but having "at least 1 scum" confirmed gives us guilty children if the townies are killed, which is super good.

If we think it's safe to assume that there can't be more than 2 scum on the same timeline, then the information is almost the same regardless of what the result is (because then guessing 2 on-wagon is effectively the same as guessing 0 off-wagon) based on that assumption, but if it starts to look like it was a mistake to assume that, they're no longer the same information.

"At Most 1 Scum" tells us that there is "At Least 1 scum" in the sub wagon that isn't on Math.

If we assume that there's at least 2 scum on the same timeline. On the other hand, "exactly 2 scum" tells us that there is "exactly 0 scum" off-wagon only if we assume that there's at most 2 scum on the same timeline. I don't feel that great about assuming we have exactly 2 scum on every timeline.
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Awaclus

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #357 on: May 09, 2021, 12:29:09 pm »

I get the argument that guessing 0 and 2 return pretty similar results, and that mathematically it's more likely to draw both scum if you pick the group of 4 instead of the group of 3. However, I think the uncertainty of interpreting the results when you guess 2 is a more substantial downside.

Of course from my perspective, I also know I'm town and on-wagon so guessing 2 is actually still just trying to find 2 scum in a group of 3, and I feel like the average non-me non-math person on the wagon is somewhat townier than expected, so I can tell the upside isn't even there.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #358 on: May 09, 2021, 12:30:23 pm »

I know math isn't counting votes for guesses, but I like the arguments for 2.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #359 on: May 09, 2021, 12:37:26 pm »

24 minutes. Let's hope he's punctual!
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mathdude

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #360 on: May 09, 2021, 01:08:30 pm »

24 minutes. Let's hope he's punctual!

Twilight ends 3 hours from now. I'm caught up on reading. I'm glad there has finally been good discussion.

I'm going to put my boy down for a nap. I'll post again in probably an hour using laptop to summarize everything I've read and ask final questions. Then I'll probably post my final scum-to-chum and my final guess around 3pm (around an hour before deadline... I wil not be available to post much later than that).
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Glooble

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #361 on: May 09, 2021, 01:32:16 pm »

Glooble is a top scum read because his indignation over mathdude's "don't vote for me" post reads a bit inauthentic, and that's very much the sort of post scum would pounce on to get a misexile.

First off, dude, you know me, and you know how I respond to people trying to boss me around. Secondly, I was already voting for mathdude, so I 'm not sure what you mean by "pounce on".

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hypercube

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #362 on: May 09, 2021, 02:02:37 pm »

I had a rough League match and am now day drunk so I'll trust mathdude to make the right decision (which is probably 1,)
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jotheonah

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #363 on: May 09, 2021, 02:03:36 pm »

Glooble is a top scum read because his indignation over mathdude's "don't vote for me" post reads a bit inauthentic, and that's very much the sort of post scum would pounce on to get a misexile.

First off, dude, you know me, and you know how I respond to people trying to boss me around. Secondly, I was already voting for mathdude, so I 'm not sure what you mean by "pounce on".

I mean you pounced on his scummy play to double down and try to turn your vote into a wagon.

It's not your fault -- mathdude set a trap for scum. You just happened to step in it. It happens.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #364 on: May 09, 2021, 02:04:22 pm »

Also, idk if anyone asked this but mathdude what's your read on Mix?
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #365 on: May 09, 2021, 02:06:27 pm »

Glooble is a top scum read because his indignation over mathdude's "don't vote for me" post reads a bit inauthentic, and that's very much the sort of post scum would pounce on to get a misexile.

First off, dude, you know me, and you know how I respond to people trying to boss me around. Secondly, I was already voting for mathdude, so I 'm not sure what you mean by "pounce on".

I mean you pounced on his scummy play to double down and try to turn your vote into a wagon.

It's not your fault -- mathdude set a trap for scum. You just happened to step in it. It happens.

Lol joth is certainly scum - mathdude set a trap for town (since scum knows mathdude's town they can tell the difference between flailing and bait)
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Galzria

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #366 on: May 09, 2021, 02:13:39 pm »

Glooble is a top scum read because his indignation over mathdude's "don't vote for me" post reads a bit inauthentic, and that's very much the sort of post scum would pounce on to get a misexile.

First off, dude, you know me, and you know how I respond to people trying to boss me around. Secondly, I was already voting for mathdude, so I 'm not sure what you mean by "pounce on".

I mean you pounced on his scummy play to double down and try to turn your vote into a wagon.

It's not your fault -- mathdude set a trap for scum. You just happened to step in it. It happens.

Lol joth is certainly scum - mathdude set a trap for town (since scum knows mathdude's town they can tell the difference between flailing and bait)

How do you know that scum knows Math is town? Is there only one set of scum? That’s useful to know.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Awaclus

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #367 on: May 09, 2021, 02:18:52 pm »

I had a rough League match and am now day drunk so I'll trust mathdude to make the right decision (which is probably 1,)

1 is pretty clearly the worst decision. Its best outcome is only slightly better than the worst outcome of 0 or 2.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #368 on: May 09, 2021, 02:20:54 pm »

I had a rough League match and am now day drunk so I'll trust mathdude to make the right decision (which is probably 1,)

1 is pretty clearly the worst decision. Its best outcome is only slightly better than the worst outcome of 0 or 2.

This, we agree on.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

mathdude

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #369 on: May 09, 2021, 03:07:38 pm »

Sorry for the delay.  My boy took forever to fall asleep, and I ended up falling asleep with him.  Trying to summarize all my thoughts now.  I'm pretty sure I'll be going with 2.
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mathdude

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #370 on: May 09, 2021, 03:48:16 pm »

1st vote on me - a standing vote that I used to try and garner more votes - Glooble.

2nd vote on me - after I said I was mostly town-reading him, though he gave no explanation - Awaclus.

3rd vote on me - after I finally convinced him in QT to mostly go along with the plan, though he was very hesistant - MiX.

4th vote on me - nonchalantly putting me at E-1 and noting it as such - hyper

5th vote on me - hammer - from me



My QT with MiX:

I had shared with MiX part-way into the day that my only role power was when I died, but I stated that it was one ability if I died during the day and a different power if I died at night.  I gave no more information than that, as much as he tried to get some from me.  I was mildly scum-reading him by the time I shared this, and the "lie" (2nd part) was a back-up so he would not keep me alive during the day and kill me at night if he was scum.  I had said I wasn't sure which of the two abilities was better, but as we got towards starting a train on me, I told him I decided getting exiled was better and I would appreciate his help.

Even with somewhat of a reason for wanting to be self-killed (it helps town, I kept saying), he still didn't want to vote me.  He wanted me to full-claim (at one point, in QT, then later he said just full-claim and self-vote in game), and I said the role wouldn't be as helpful then.  Finally, I blackmailed him by saying I would strongly recommend town kill him next day and self-claim if I have to, and if he was town, that would mean 2 of us die and basically give scum the win - it was at this point, he finally relented and voted for me in game.

Only after I self-hammered and explained the role in thread did he ask what my power was if I was killed at night, and I revealed that it was all a ruse because I didn't trust him.

We have exchanged a few messages since then.  And even though I've said I still mildly scum-read him, and I would appreciate some trust-building, he has basically offered me nothing in return, causing me to trust him even less.  At this point, he'd be one of my top scum guesses.  But at the same time, I know I usually distrust him and his posting style, so I'll also acknowledge that it could just be that... unfortunately, I know that's not very helpful!

After explaining role in game, I told MiX I'm leaning towards guessing 1, with some explanation, and he casually said he agrees.  Nothing strong for or against or any recommendations - totally not what I would expect from MiX in QT.  And even though I've tried to engage in QT, he's still not saying much.



People commenting about what I should guess:

MiX - says he thinks 1 would be the most informative (I think this was after I said I was leaning that way already in QT).

hyper - says 1 is a low-risk plan, but 0 or 2 might be high enough reward to go for (not much help here).

scola (not Reverse) - nicely summarizes data, and options for guessing, but didn't give a recommendation.

Eddie - says 0 has a nice upside if the answer is "yes", but would tend to recommend 1.

MiX - confirms that 1 would be the most informative

Glooble - says 0 is definitely the best guess because of potential reward

[at this point, I clarify that we should figure out how many scum we think are most likely on my wagon]

[we also clarify that it's "non-town", not "scum" for the guess, and that the guess is exact number, not "at least"]

Awaclus - logically states that finding out 1 out of the 4 are scum means very little, since that's effectively not knowing anything (it's basic probability), and recommends guessing 0... also stating that guessing 2 does not seem as good as guessing 0.

asher (not Reverse) - adamantly says 0 is best, since getting a "no" on any other guess isn't helpful (which I disagree with!).

scola - with logic, states that 1 is the worst choice, since a "no" is less than helpful, and would rather choose 0 instead of 2.

Eddie - waffles between 0 and 1, calling 0 the "safe play" and saying it's probably the best.

EFHW (not Reverse) - like me, disagrees with a guess of 0, since even though a "yes" is great, it's unlikely, and a "no" is really unhelpful since we all assume it's at least 1 on the wagon anyway.

[I publicly state I'm not going to guess 0, give a lot of explanation, including what could happen with a "yes" or "no" for any guess from 0 to 2, and what scum might tend to do in each of these situations as well]

Awaclus - states there is much more likely 0 scum on my wagon rather than 2+ since it "looks like a townie wagon", also states that knowing there is 1 scum on wagon is not as useless as we've all been saying since it can be helpful towards the end of the game (and while I agree it *can*, I don't think the conditions where it might be helpful are very likely to happen, since scum can probably keep conditions away from ending up there).

Glooble - continues to recommend 0, and also states that there are most likely 1 scum on wagon (and out of 0 and 2, they are probably equally likely).

Didds (not Reverse) - states that if there are 2 scum who know each other, it's quite likely that one is on wagon and the other is off.

scola - strongly prefers a guess of 0 or 2, since a "no" from a guess of 1 is quite useless

Galz (not Reverse) - the first person, I believe, to recommend guessing 2, arguing that a "yes" here is basically as useful as a "yes" to 0 guess, and that even a "no" almost definitely means 0 or 1 on wagon, where you would almost definitely suspect 1 and getting that distinction with a guess of 1 is much less clear (since 0 still plays into the game).

joth (not Reverse) - says we should guess 0, then after some reasoning, ends up convincing himself that maybe 1 is better since he's almost confident there aren't zero.

Awaclus - counters Galz' reasoning that 2 is better than 0 to guess, saying that getting a result from 0 would likely be more helpful, but his logic is dependent on who dies and when (which scum can control to some extent, to try and prevent us from getting to a useful state).

Galz (not Reverse) - replies to Awaclus, stating that if we assume there are likely more than 0 on the wagon, then guessing 2 is much clearly more indicative, regardless whether we get a yes or no (but when we get a "no" to 0, it's quite unhelpful), so the overall means 2 is a better choice still.

(a little more from joth and Awaclus)

EFHW (not Reverse) - states that the arguments for 2 seem better.

hyper - says 1 is probably the right decision.

Awaclus - states again that 1 is clearly the worst decision for a guess.



Now for a final summary and guess...
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mathdude

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #371 on: May 09, 2021, 03:59:06 pm »

After reading all that, and based on when/how the votes happened, who seemed to be hiding stuff in the voting period, who seemed to be hiding stuff or trying to sway opinions during the past 24 hours... who do I scum-read?  I'm not saying my scum-reads are going to be right, but I will say that they're not going to be influenced by scum pushing things in their favour nearly as much as a D2 or D3 set of votes and discussions.

MiX - I feel that he's quite possibly scum, as he didn't want to help kill me when I said it was for the best (which seems odd, because a scum would want an easy mis-exile, but he may have felt I was trying to trap him?)

Eddie - I have been mildly scum-reading him since he joined, and was strongly scum-reading faust beforehand.  And Eddie's logic here seemed to be trying to keep things less than useful with this guess.  He's quite possibly scum.

Awaclus - like my reading of MiX, I often scum-read his typical posting style early in a game.  I don't like some of his arguments.  I don't like that he still prefers 0 over 2.  But it seems to be coming from a genuine place.  I think wanting me to guess 0 is something scum would want if there was 1 or 2 on my wagon (which is quite likely), but I'm going to say Awaclus is likely town.

Glooble - I town-read his posting (more so than my reading of MiX and Awaclus), but given the same logic and wanting 0, I'm going to put him in the same boat as Awaclus.  He's for a bad number in my opinion, but it seems like he's doing it genuinely trying to be helpful.

hyper - between a lack of useful information, not much reasoning, and being the E-1 so casually, I think it's very possible he's scum.  I'd put him as a 50/50, because I really don't know.

For non-Reverse players, it seems EFHW and Galz are being the most helpful in this discussion.  Maybe that's how they always are.  Maybe they were around and available and many other Forward timeline players just didn't care to be around much (I know, a few others were).  They could be scum (either, but unlikely both), if their logic helped protect teammates.  But I think it's more likely that they're both Town.
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mathdude

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #372 on: May 09, 2021, 04:01:05 pm »

Ok, now I'm fully caught up.

The fact that mathdude asked (begged) MiX to vote for him, and also voted for himself is big here. We of course don't know MiX is town, but his vote is very not scummy given it was engineered by mathdude.

It's kind of frustrating that mathdude took the hammer away from scum here too. Basically this is a really weird wagon because it was engineered by town and that makes it super hard to make assumptions about it.

hypercube E-1'd pretty casually. That could be scummy.

I guess if we have a conservative scum team, we're looking at zero or 1 and if we have an aggressive scum team we're looking at 2 at most. I think we can pretty much rule out three.

Because if MiX is scum, he was the second one to vote mathdude and his partners wouldn't jump on like that, at least not if there were two on the wagon already. They might hammer, if it looked like the best move, but they wouldn't vote in the third or fourth position.

I guess where I'm at here is that scum on this wagon, if any, are either Glooble or hypercube. Glooble AND hypercube is possible but unlikely. Maybe someone who has a better grasp of cube's meta can tell me whether he would E-1 a wagon with a partner on it this quickly & early in the day. But, contradicting what I said before, I think this could absolutely be an all-town wagon. Because of the weirdness of it.

I admire the gumption of pro-actively using this power like mathdude did and if it pays off it will be epic. But there are definite downsides.

I know the weekend exile wasn't ideal with a 24-hour timeline, and I wish I could have let scum hammer me (for a 5/2 split instead of 4/3).  But I also didn't want the wagon to fizzle out, and just hammered to make sure my role was used.  Sorry, but hopefully it all works out.

Also, thanks - I sure hope this pays off epically too!  I admit there are definitely potential downsides.  But I hope we've figured out where to go here - regardless of a "yes" or a "no".
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mathdude

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #373 on: May 09, 2021, 04:04:08 pm »

Vote Count 1.Final:

mathdude (5): Glooble, Awaclus, MiX, hypercube, mathdude
MiX (1): PPS
Eddie (1): chairs
PPS (1): Eddie

Not Voting (8): EFHW, WCD, scolapasta, Joth, Galzria, Ashersky, gkrieg, Dylan


With 8 alive on the ACTIVE TIMELINE, it took 5 to Exile.

There is a Twilight period starting now, and ending in 24 hours - That is Sunday, May 9th at 4:05pm Forum Time.
No votes may be changed during the Twilight Period.

On wagon - Glooble, Awaclus, MiX, hypercube
Off wagon - pps, chairs, Eddie

My guess for scum-to-chum:
Eddie (scummiest)
MiX
hyper
(chairs and pps - no idea!)
Awaclus
Glooble (towniest)

I hope what I've posted is helpful.  Best of luck town.  I'll watch from speccy!  Here's hoping for a "yes", but even if it's "no", I hope you can figure out which of the other numbers it is quickly enough!

Guess: 2

/mathdude out
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Galzria

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #374 on: May 09, 2021, 04:12:45 pm »

I know we were both scum last game - but I stand by what I said:

How anybody can read you as scum is beyond me. 😋

Thanks Math! 🤞 Hope for that YES!
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20
Pages: 1 ... 13 14 [15] 16 17 ... 56  All
 

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