1st vote on me - a standing vote that I used to try and garner more votes - Glooble.
2nd vote on me - after I said I was mostly town-reading him, though he gave no explanation - Awaclus.
3rd vote on me - after I finally convinced him in QT to mostly go along with the plan, though he was very hesistant - MiX.
4th vote on me - nonchalantly putting me at E-1 and noting it as such - hyper
5th vote on me - hammer - from me
My QT with MiX:
I had shared with MiX part-way into the day that my only role power was when I died, but I stated that it was one ability if I died during the day and a different power if I died at night. I gave no more information than that, as much as he tried to get some from me. I was mildly scum-reading him by the time I shared this, and the "lie" (2nd part) was a back-up so he would not keep me alive during the day and kill me at night if he was scum. I had said I wasn't sure which of the two abilities was better, but as we got towards starting a train on me, I told him I decided getting exiled was better and I would appreciate his help.
Even with somewhat of a reason for wanting to be self-killed (it helps town, I kept saying), he still didn't want to vote me. He wanted me to full-claim (at one point, in QT, then later he said just full-claim and self-vote in game), and I said the role wouldn't be as helpful then. Finally, I blackmailed him by saying I would strongly recommend town kill him next day and self-claim if I have to, and if he was town, that would mean 2 of us die and basically give scum the win - it was at this point, he finally relented and voted for me in game.
Only after I self-hammered and explained the role in thread did he ask what my power was if I was killed at night, and I revealed that it was all a ruse because I didn't trust him.
We have exchanged a few messages since then. And even though I've said I still mildly scum-read him, and I would appreciate some trust-building, he has basically offered me nothing in return, causing me to trust him even less. At this point, he'd be one of my top scum guesses. But at the same time, I know I usually distrust him and his posting style, so I'll also acknowledge that it could just be that... unfortunately, I know that's not very helpful!
After explaining role in game, I told MiX I'm leaning towards guessing 1, with some explanation, and he casually said he agrees. Nothing strong for or against or any recommendations - totally not what I would expect from MiX in QT. And even though I've tried to engage in QT, he's still not saying much.
People commenting about what I should guess:
MiX - says he thinks 1 would be the most informative (I think this was after I said I was leaning that way already in QT).
hyper - says 1 is a low-risk plan, but 0 or 2 might be high enough reward to go for (not much help here).
scola (not Reverse) - nicely summarizes data, and options for guessing, but didn't give a recommendation.
Eddie - says 0 has a nice upside if the answer is "yes", but would tend to recommend 1.
MiX - confirms that 1 would be the most informative
Glooble - says 0 is definitely the best guess because of potential reward
[at this point, I clarify that we should figure out how many scum we think are most likely on my wagon]
[we also clarify that it's "non-town", not "scum" for the guess, and that the guess is exact number, not "at least"]
Awaclus - logically states that finding out 1 out of the 4 are scum means very little, since that's effectively not knowing anything (it's basic probability), and recommends guessing 0... also stating that guessing 2 does not seem as good as guessing 0.
asher (not Reverse) - adamantly says 0 is best, since getting a "no" on any other guess isn't helpful (which I disagree with!).
scola - with logic, states that 1 is the worst choice, since a "no" is less than helpful, and would rather choose 0 instead of 2.
Eddie - waffles between 0 and 1, calling 0 the "safe play" and saying it's probably the best.
EFHW (not Reverse) - like me, disagrees with a guess of 0, since even though a "yes" is great, it's unlikely, and a "no" is really unhelpful since we all assume it's at least 1 on the wagon anyway.
[I publicly state I'm not going to guess 0, give a lot of explanation, including what could happen with a "yes" or "no" for any guess from 0 to 2, and what scum might tend to do in each of these situations as well]
Awaclus - states there is much more likely 0 scum on my wagon rather than 2+ since it "looks like a townie wagon", also states that knowing there is 1 scum on wagon is not as useless as we've all been saying since it can be helpful towards the end of the game (and while I agree it *can*, I don't think the conditions where it might be helpful are very likely to happen, since scum can probably keep conditions away from ending up there).
Glooble - continues to recommend 0, and also states that there are most likely 1 scum on wagon (and out of 0 and 2, they are probably equally likely).
Didds (not Reverse) - states that if there are 2 scum who know each other, it's quite likely that one is on wagon and the other is off.
scola - strongly prefers a guess of 0 or 2, since a "no" from a guess of 1 is quite useless
Galz (not Reverse) - the first person, I believe, to recommend guessing 2, arguing that a "yes" here is basically as useful as a "yes" to 0 guess, and that even a "no" almost definitely means 0 or 1 on wagon, where you would almost definitely suspect 1 and getting that distinction with a guess of 1 is much less clear (since 0 still plays into the game).
joth (not Reverse) - says we should guess 0, then after some reasoning, ends up convincing himself that maybe 1 is better since he's almost confident there aren't zero.
Awaclus - counters Galz' reasoning that 2 is better than 0 to guess, saying that getting a result from 0 would likely be more helpful, but his logic is dependent on who dies and when (which scum can control to some extent, to try and prevent us from getting to a useful state).
Galz (not Reverse) - replies to Awaclus, stating that if we assume there are likely more than 0 on the wagon, then guessing 2 is much clearly more indicative, regardless whether we get a yes or no (but when we get a "no" to 0, it's quite unhelpful), so the overall means 2 is a better choice still.
(a little more from joth and Awaclus)
EFHW (not Reverse) - states that the arguments for 2 seem better.
hyper - says 1 is probably the right decision.
Awaclus - states again that 1 is clearly the worst decision for a guess.
Now for a final summary and guess...