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Author Topic: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Game Over! Town Wins!  (Read 37447 times)

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mathdude

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #300 on: May 08, 2021, 01:37:38 pm »

I have no idea what vengeful cop even means, though, what exactly is going to happen here, who gets the result?

I guess publicly here in game (and that triggers the end of twilight). Then mod posts in the morning whether I was right or not.
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Uncleeurope

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #301 on: May 08, 2021, 01:38:07 pm »

Oh, did M.D. ever talk about your QT? I must have missed it, haha.
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Uncleeurope Eddie

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #302 on: May 08, 2021, 01:39:17 pm »

Oh, did M.D. ever talk about your QT? I must have missed it, haha.

Huh. Why did you think we were neighbors then?
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Uncleeurope

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #303 on: May 08, 2021, 01:40:43 pm »

Oh, did M.D. ever talk about your QT? I must have missed it, haha.

Huh. Why did you think we were neighbors then?

Dunno. It just happened, havenít though much about neighbors other than thinking to myself ďhmmm, MiX/M.D.Ē

Couldnít tell you why.
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Uncleeurope Eddie

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #304 on: May 08, 2021, 01:42:27 pm »

vote: mathdude

That's hammer?

Yes...yes that's hammer.

Oh god...I can only pray for the best.

What's the best? He self hammered. When is that ever good?

The aggression definitely seemed forced - trying to get get votes on him - and it seems to have worked.

There's really no way he's scum, unless his power has very bad things happen to town if he gets exiled.

So let's hope it's just something like he's a Jester or something like that.

ppe 1

Makes more sense now?

I guess? Could you explain the role more? i.e. are you a regular cop and question is the Vengeful ability? or are this your only ability? (related to cop; if there's something else, feel free to not reveal)

At first I was going to say it may have made sense to wait until D3, but maybe thinking further, I do see the potential here as it gets us some solid intel before any weird shenanigans like traitors, scum changing timelines, etc.



So we have two groups:
1. Gloobie, Mix, cube, Awaclus
2. Eddie, chairs, pps

If we assume there are 2 scum in this timeline, then you would guess 0, 1, or 2, here are the options (we do need to be careful as there could also be just 1 scum; and much less likely, 3 scum):
 
Options:

Guess 0:
YES: All ICs in group 1; 2 of the 3 players in Group 2 are scum
NO:  0-1 in the group 1 and 1-2 group 2.

Guess 1:
YES: 1 in group 1, and 1 in group 2
NO: both scum are all in either group 1 or group 2


Guess 2:
YES: 2 in group 1 and 0 in group 2, ICing eddie, chairs, and pps (mostly, again this is with assumption of 2 scum)
NO:  0-1 in the group 1 and 1-2 group 2.

I have my opinion on which guess I like best and which I like worst. But I think it would be valuable to hear from all the Reverses which guess they like best.

ppe: 8

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hypercube

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #305 on: May 08, 2021, 01:42:53 pm »

Well, I guess in a typical D1, I'd say it's scummy to not immediately unvote. But this is not a typical D1, so I guess it makes more sense to be really surprised and not unvote immediately.

It seemed to defeat the purpose of pressure voting for him to immediately unvote.
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Uncleeurope

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #306 on: May 08, 2021, 01:52:01 pm »

First instinct was to go for 1 as MiX suggested, but I think 0 amounts to something similar.

If I were to use it like the ability was intended I would probably vote 1 because thatís my best guess for the correct amount.

0 has a huge upside and learning ďnoĒ means that at least 1 in the list is bad, which would be pretty solid info regardless.

I dunno.

Iím a gambler, so I would go 1. (Yup, the safe play and the risky play swapped for me)

Maybe.

But who knows?
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Uncleeurope Eddie

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #307 on: May 08, 2021, 02:00:18 pm »

1 is the safe number, the best number regardless of quantity of scum in this timeline (1 or 2), and late in the game it gives basically as much information as the other guesses, regardless of outcome. Given tomorrow will be another timeline, gambling for a better short term result seems inefficient. So, 1's the best number.
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mathdude

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #308 on: May 08, 2021, 02:08:38 pm »

I guess? Could you explain the role more? i.e. are you a regular cop and question is the Vengeful ability? or are this your only ability? (related to cop; if there's something else, feel free to not reveal)

At first I was going to say it may have made sense to wait until D3, but maybe thinking further, I do see the potential here as it gets us some solid intel before any weird shenanigans like traitors, scum changing timelines, etc.

I am not a regular cop. I have a 1-shot ability that only works if I'm exiled (I'm useless if killed at night). When exiled, we enter a twilight phase, which lasts up to 24 or until I officially make a bolded guess, whichever comes first.

I post a guess of how many scum on my wagon. You guys go through night phase. Tomorrow morning, with any other night information posted (such as scum kill), mod will answer publicly whether my guess was right or wrong.

Since D1 vote is fairly blind, and at risk of dying either N1 or N2 (assuming we alternate timelines each day, which isn't guaranteed)... I figured I'd make use of my role by making sure I was exiled.

Yes, D3 or later would let me make an even better guess with less on and off wagon. But that's also when we may not be able to afford a town exile in order to gather info. And if I die at night, it's all wasted. This way, I guarantee a more useful PR didn't die today (and I'm pretty sure we'll still get decent info from this).
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scolapasta

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #309 on: May 08, 2021, 02:13:32 pm »

I guess? Could you explain the role more? i.e. are you a regular cop and question is the Vengeful ability? or are this your only ability? (related to cop; if there's something else, feel free to not reveal)

At first I was going to say it may have made sense to wait until D3, but maybe thinking further, I do see the potential here as it gets us some solid intel before any weird shenanigans like traitors, scum changing timelines, etc.

I am not a regular cop. I have a 1-shot ability that only works if I'm exiled (I'm useless if killed at night). When exiled, we enter a twilight phase, which lasts up to 24 or until I officially make a bolded guess, whichever comes first.

I post a guess of how many scum on my wagon. You guys go through night phase. Tomorrow morning, with any other night information posted (such as scum kill), mod will answer publicly whether my guess was right or wrong.

Since D1 vote is fairly blind, and at risk of dying either N1 or N2 (assuming we alternate timelines each day, which isn't guaranteed)... I figured I'd make use of my role by making sure I was exiled.

Yes, D3 or later would let me make an even better guess with less on and off wagon. But that's also when we may not be able to afford a town exile in order to gather info. And if I die at night, it's all wasted. This way, I guarantee a more useful PR didn't die today (and I'm pretty sure we'll still get decent info from this).

It also keeps your meta of dying D1 when town. :)

Does twilight begin when you're hammered or when mod posts the final vote count?

Please don't make your guess until we'ver had a chance to hear from more people their opinion.

Does twilight begin when you're hammered or when mod posts the final vote count?

Swowl, can you confirm the answer to that?
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Uncleeurope

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #310 on: May 08, 2021, 02:20:03 pm »

I kinda wish M.D. had outed the ability start of day and we could have set up the wagon prettier.

That would have had some interesting discussion as well.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #311 on: May 08, 2021, 02:24:27 pm »

I think it doesn't make sense to reveal (at least D1/2) are flavor names and/or QT partners. But I will say this: I have NO CLUE what my flavor has to do with the theme. I mean it's a name, but when I try to google it, I don't see any (at least immediate) connection to Memento.

I also decided to rewatch Memento after reading Jonah's post and my flavor name also has 0 connection to the film.
I guess Jonah is joth?

Heís Jo-The O-nah! I have said repeatedly that I think he should go by Joth IRL
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mathdude

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #312 on: May 08, 2021, 02:26:34 pm »

I kinda wish M.D. had outed the ability start of day and we could have set up the wagon prettier.

That would have had some interesting discussion as well.

Yes, it would have. But it would have had scum influence the possible setup and results. And I didn't want that.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #313 on: May 08, 2021, 02:27:16 pm »

So what is math doing that is making him come across so scummy? There is aggression here. He was certainly crossing swords with faust. Is there a scum narrative, or is this irritation at his approach to the game?

This aggression seems fake. Read his posts, do you think math is that upset? I don't.

I donít think heís being fake. I also donít think heís upset. I think that is just his style.
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mathdude

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #314 on: May 08, 2021, 02:29:17 pm »

I hammered just after 1pm today. If 24 hours starts at hammer or isn't confirmed, I'll probably make my guess around 11am tomorrow (give myself a buffer in case stuff happens). If mod confirms it's when they post vote count that starts the timer, I may extend my self-deadline
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #315 on: May 08, 2021, 02:34:55 pm »

Math, do you have an easy list of who is on your wagon?
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mathdude

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #316 on: May 08, 2021, 02:44:20 pm »

Math, do you have an easy list of who is on your wagon?

Like this?

So we have two groups:
1. Gloobie, Mix, cube, Awaclus
2. Eddie, chairs, pps
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Glooble

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #317 on: May 08, 2021, 03:50:53 pm »

Fascinating. Well, good job getting yourself exiled, math.

I think 0 is the best guess, even though I highly doubt there are actually 0 scum on the wagon. It just has the most upside. (A) If we guess zero and swowl says yes, that's 4 ICs, that's insane. (B) If we guess zero and swowl says no, that's four players and we know definitively that at least one is scum, that still greatly increases our odds next time we have to exile in reverse.

If we guess one and swowl says yes, that's not that much better than scenario (A), given that we don't know for sure how many scum are in each timeline. (D) If we guess one and Swowl say no, that tells us very little. Could be 2, could be 0. It's not helpful.

(E) If we guess 2 and Swowl says yes, that's a super useful result, but again (F) if we guess 2 and Swowl says no, it could be 1 or zero, not so useful.

So yeah, I vote we guess zero.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #318 on: May 08, 2021, 04:03:59 pm »

Vote Count 1.Final:

mathdude (5): Glooble, Awaclus, MiX, hypercube, mathdude
MiX (1): PPS
Eddie (1): chairs
PPS (1): Eddie

Not Voting (8): EFHW, WCD, scolapasta, Joth, Galzria, Ashersky, gkrieg, Dylan


With 8 alive on the ACTIVE TIMELINE, it took 5 to Exile.

There is a Twilight period starting now, and ending in 24 hours - That is Sunday, May 9th at 4:05pm Forum Time.
No votes may be changed during the Twilight Period.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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mathdude

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #319 on: May 08, 2021, 04:10:03 pm »

The best question to ask is: "what are the two most likely numbers of scum on my train?"
And then the follow-up is: "how do we beat distinguish between them?"

I think there are either 1 or 2. There can't be 3 unless we have some serious imbalance in the two timelines. And it would be quite unlikely scum would pass up such an easy "misexile", so I think it's less likely there are 0.

Agree or disagree?

We can deal with the 2nd question once we sort out this first one (a number of you immediately jumped to the second, and I initially did too, but I think we need to agree on the first one first).
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #320 on: May 08, 2021, 04:19:30 pm »

I guess? Could you explain the role more? i.e. are you a regular cop and question is the Vengeful ability? or are this your only ability? (related to cop; if there's something else, feel free to not reveal)

At first I was going to say it may have made sense to wait until D3, but maybe thinking further, I do see the potential here as it gets us some solid intel before any weird shenanigans like traitors, scum changing timelines, etc.

I am not a regular cop. I have a 1-shot ability that only works if I'm exiled (I'm useless if killed at night). When exiled, we enter a twilight phase, which lasts up to 24 or until I officially make a bolded guess, whichever comes first.

I post a guess of how many scum on my wagon. You guys go through night phase. Tomorrow morning, with any other night information posted (such as scum kill), mod will answer publicly whether my guess was right or wrong.

Since D1 vote is fairly blind, and at risk of dying either N1 or N2 (assuming we alternate timelines each day, which isn't guaranteed)... I figured I'd make use of my role by making sure I was exiled.

Yes, D3 or later would let me make an even better guess with less on and off wagon. But that's also when we may not be able to afford a town exile in order to gather info. And if I die at night, it's all wasted. This way, I guarantee a more useful PR didn't die today (and I'm pretty sure we'll still get decent info from this).

How is "scum" defined? If we are in multiball or have a 3rd party, I'd want to know where they fit into the answer we get. Paraphrase, though!
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EFHW

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #321 on: May 08, 2021, 04:26:32 pm »

The thing about trying to get exiled is that town players vote for you. We are not near deadline. Why would scum be on the wagon now? I think we should ask if there are zero scum. That has the biggest possible payoff. The other choices are about what we would guess anyway based on probability, without the benefit of a question and answer.

Is your guess for the exact number of scum? So that a guess of 1 would get a no answer if there are 2?
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mathdude

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #322 on: May 08, 2021, 05:10:18 pm »

I guess? Could you explain the role more? i.e. are you a regular cop and question is the Vengeful ability? or are this your only ability? (related to cop; if there's something else, feel free to not reveal)

At first I was going to say it may have made sense to wait until D3, but maybe thinking further, I do see the potential here as it gets us some solid intel before any weird shenanigans like traitors, scum changing timelines, etc.

I am not a regular cop. I have a 1-shot ability that only works if I'm exiled (I'm useless if killed at night). When exiled, we enter a twilight phase, which lasts up to 24 or until I officially make a bolded guess, whichever comes first.

I post a guess of how many scum on my wagon. You guys go through night phase. Tomorrow morning, with any other night information posted (such as scum kill), mod will answer publicly whether my guess was right or wrong.

Since D1 vote is fairly blind, and at risk of dying either N1 or N2 (assuming we alternate timelines each day, which isn't guaranteed)... I figured I'd make use of my role by making sure I was exiled.

Yes, D3 or later would let me make an even better guess with less on and off wagon. But that's also when we may not be able to afford a town exile in order to gather info. And if I die at night, it's all wasted. This way, I guarantee a more useful PR didn't die today (and I'm pretty sure we'll still get decent info from this).

How is "scum" defined? If we are in multiball or have a 3rd party, I'd want to know where they fit into the answer we get. Paraphrase, though!

Good question! I just went to double-check.

It is actually a guess of how many "non-town" are on my wagon. Does that change things? Make it less likely to be 0 I assume if there are possible 3rd parties.

The thing about trying to get exiled is that town players vote for you. We are not near deadline. Why would scum be on the wagon now? I think we should ask if there are zero scum. That has the biggest possible payoff. The other choices are about what we would guess anyway based on probability, without the benefit of a question and answer.

Is your guess for the exact number of scum? So that a guess of 1 would get a no answer if there are 2?


It is an exact guess, as far as I can see. So your example would be correct. I will verify in QT to be sure though.
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mathdude

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #323 on: May 08, 2021, 08:25:05 pm »

Confirmed. My guess has to be exactly correct to get a "yes".
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #324 on: May 08, 2021, 08:26:59 pm »

Please note:

This is specific to BSG Season 1 - You may only discuss information that is PUBLIC KNOWLEDGE from BSG-1 in this game. This is to say you may only discuss things that would be available to someone that did NOT play BSG - Season 1
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