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Author Topic: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Game Over! Town Wins!  (Read 31410 times)

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ashersky

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #400 on: May 11, 2021, 10:59:45 pm »

Also, like, 3 mafia is fine, and could be on wagon.  On purpose, even.

Anyway, can we get a list of whomever is playing Day 2?
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #401 on: May 11, 2021, 11:32:46 pm »

So if we think of this as Day 1, Game 2, we're going to be trying to figure out stuff from a new set of players.  Reads formed during Day 1, Game 1 are useless given we can't vote for any of those players.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #402 on: May 11, 2021, 11:34:49 pm »

What we do know, and again, useless today, is that one of:

{Glooble, Awaclus, MiX, hypercube, PPS, chairs, Eddie} killed gkrieg last night.

gkrieg's lack of interactions (and really, all non-active players' lack of interactions moving forward) make it hard to try to figure out who in this timeline may have had a hand in that decision, if any.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #403 on: May 11, 2021, 11:36:15 pm »

This should be today's game's players, right?

EFHW, WCD, scolapasta, Joth, Galzria, Ashersky, Dylan
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #404 on: May 11, 2021, 11:38:11 pm »

We should exile off-wagon.

Isn't this the only option?  All the on-wagon players are in the wrong timeline...

Unless you know something I don't?  Mafiaslip?
Shoot, it's not an option at all today. Forgot about that.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #405 on: May 11, 2021, 11:39:17 pm »

gkrieg posted a total of 4 times during the game:

I think the italics plan by faust is a good one. Obviously overtly helpful faust is scum faust, so vote: faust.

I also don't know if not timeline claiming is a good thing. Not just for the targeting reasons that have been mentioned, but because we will have at least partially timeline claimed by the end of the day when the people from the current timeline vote for the person who has been hammered by italics votes. Not sure if it is good to let some people be unclaimed from a timeline while others get to not be timeline claimed.


I think the italics plan by faust is a good one. Obviously overtly helpful faust is scum faust, so vote: faust.

I also don't know if not timeline claiming is a good thing. Not just for the targeting reasons that have been mentioned, but because we will have at least partially timeline claimed by the end of the day when the people from the current timeline vote for the person who has been hammered by italics votes. Not sure if it is good to let some people be unclaimed from a timeline while others get to not be timeline claimed.
The italics plan only works if timelines are unknown.

I'm saying that we are all going to have to vote at the end of the day, which will show who is with what timeline anyway.


Not sure if it is good to let some people be unclaimed from a timeline while others get to not be timeline claimed.

I think I know what you're trying to say but you didn't actually say that with those words, right?

Yes, you are correct. I'm saying letting people pick whether to claim their timeline is a bad idea.


I am extremely frustrated and annoyed at mathdude's play.

Agreed. There is really nothing wrong with having a discussion to the merits of claiming before he just does it for people.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #406 on: May 11, 2021, 11:40:19 pm »

All setup, timeline, plan talk.  Nothing there to make me think the gkrieg choice was anything but just taking out someone from the unknown pool who is strong.
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scolapasta

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #407 on: May 12, 2021, 12:03:27 am »

So if we think of this as Day 1, Game 2, we're going to be trying to figure out stuff from a new set of players.  Reads formed during Day 1, Game 1 are useless given we can't vote for any of those players.

Non active people did post D1 and we can make reads off those posts, no? It's not fully a D1, Game 2, only for voting purposes.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #408 on: May 12, 2021, 12:13:03 am »

So if we think of this as Day 1, Game 2, we're going to be trying to figure out stuff from a new set of players.  Reads formed during Day 1, Game 1 are useless given we can't vote for any of those players.

Non active people did post D1 and we can make reads off those posts, no? It's not fully a D1, Game 2, only for voting purposes.

I mean, some did, sort of.  But I just posted of all gkrieg, for example.  I wasn't very active.  Galz did nothing.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #409 on: May 12, 2021, 12:14:12 am »

Yeah, 2 was a bit... Optimistic.

I think the goal was that now we "know" (by attempting to Meta a set-up, which is terrifying) that PPS/Me/Chairs has a bad guy in it.

Which is great for me.

Not so much for anyone else.

How?  None of you is in the set of five.  The question/answer gave us zero actual information about off-wagon players, or about other timeline players.

It's a big diversion, basically.

People have been talking like there are 2 scum per timeline, so that would mean an off has to be bad.

I donít necessarily buy into the 2-per thing, but there ya have it.

I agree with you, though, itís pretty much nothing.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #410 on: May 12, 2021, 03:39:43 am »

Vote Count 2.1:

Galzria (1): scolapasta
Not Voting (13):EFHW, WCD, Joth, Ashersky, Dylan, Galzria, MiX, Eddie, chairs, hypercube, Glooble, PPS, Awaclus


With 7 alive on the ACTIVE TIMELINE, it takes 4 to Exile.
Day 2 starts now and ends Tuesday, May 18th at 4:55pm Forum Time.

Today the active timeline is the FORWARD TIMELINE We will remain in the FORWARD TIMELINE until the start of Day 3.
Only players from the currently active timeline may vote, or be voted for.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #411 on: May 12, 2021, 08:24:43 am »

This should be today's game's players, right?

EFHW, WCD, scolapasta, Joth, Galzria, Ashersky, Dylan

Yes, that tracks with what I had.

Taking gkrieg out of the mix will make it harder for us to exile scum, if we assume there are two. I hadnít really grasped until the start of the day that scum from the other time line could could people in ours.

So, we need to see if the active t/l people really can vote and be voted for?

Vote: Dylan
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #412 on: May 12, 2021, 08:38:30 am »

I agree that the scum are more likely to be in the people who pushed for guessing 2 or more generally are treating mathdude's wagon as a scum trap. Basically the train of thought "someone is acting weird and confrontational -> they're likely scum" is townier to me than "someone is acting weird and confrontational -> they're likely town doing this on purpose", because town is looking out for scum and scum is looking out for town with some plan that endangers their wincon.

So I'd vote: joth or vote: galzria if I could today.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #413 on: May 12, 2021, 08:50:00 am »

Scum choosing to kill on the forward timeline (assuming that's a choice and not forced by the setup) is interesting to me since deactivating a N1 PR is an obvious advantage to choosing to kill on the reverse timeline. It could mean that town is somehow close to getting useful information out of mathdude's guess.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #414 on: May 12, 2021, 09:16:03 am »

I personally would've killed Eddie

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #415 on: May 12, 2021, 09:44:13 am »

ashersky, do you really genuinely believe 1. that Swowl would make the setup with three scum in one timeline and 2. that all three scum would get on the same wagon?

I do not.

I think that no more than 2 scum per timeline is a relatively safe assumption. And if we assume that, then there is definitely at least one scum in [pps, chairs, Eddie] and no more than one scum in [me, MiX, hypercube, Awaclus], which is a pretty useful place to start tomorrow. And if I were scum, I would have killed on the forward timeline in order to avoid making town's poe in reverse even better. But that's just me.

One thing that does throw off this line of reasoning is the possibility of a non-scum third party, like a jester. But I do think ash is either wrong about the amount of information mathdude's power gave us or intentionally misrepresenting it, and since ash is typically better at this game than I am, I am leaning towards the latter.

So, vote: ashersky I guess. I can't actually vote, of course. But if I had a vote, that's where it would be right now.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #416 on: May 12, 2021, 10:09:27 am »

Just to clarify- I'm not saying ash is scum because we disagree on this. I'm realizing that's probably how I came off. I do think that since as people keep dying in the RT we'll start to zero in on scum now that we've separated them into two buckets, it benefits scum to encourage the town to focus on super unlikely fringe scenarios (like 3 scum on a wagon) rather than trying to think about the most likely scenarios. And if I were a well-respected player with a reputation for being good at this kind of analysis, like ash, I would probably throw my weight behind trying to get people to consider these far-flung possibilities now, rather than after we've cornered someone when scum are scrambling for a way out of the P.O.E., cause it looks a lot less suspicious now.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #417 on: May 12, 2021, 10:50:03 am »

OK, my double vote idea was pointless if I some how mistakenly chose a Forward as my second vote (which I did). Not sure why I thought Galz was reverse.

So I'll try this again for the next vote count:

Vote: pingpongsam

Vote: MiX

while I think more on a better, real vote. I do think other Forwards should join me and similarly vote 2 (other) Reversers.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #418 on: May 12, 2021, 10:54:24 am »

I generally agree with the thought that 2 per timeline is a relatively safe assumption and a good place to start. We should of course question it until proven correctly, but it does give us info.

Also, the thought that the way mathdude was acting, it is easy to consider that there were at least two town votes and so that also would help attack the 3+ non town on his wagon.

And I like gloobie's thoughts on, if it were 2, then it seems reasonable that scum would kill a forward because they were worried about giving us better PoE. It's a great point, that independent of that, killing a Reversers would have been better in case they hit a valuable PR. Especially given all the QTs, because that player wouldn't have to reveal immediately to the main thread, but could have to their QT partner.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #419 on: May 12, 2021, 11:18:25 am »

I have a question for MiX - I know he's reverse timeline, but I want to ask while things are fresh.

Why did you resist mathdude's plan? What specifically were your worries, or what scum narrative did you foresee?
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #420 on: May 12, 2021, 11:20:52 am »

I have a question for MiX - I know he's reverse timeline, but I want to ask while things are fresh.

Why did you resist mathdude's plan? What specifically were your worries, or what scum narrative did you foresee?

Right. D1 I was very focused on hearing mathdude's side, since he was being exiled, but we should get MiX's side too. Of course there slightly less urgency - as if he dies, it doesn't matter any more. :)
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #421 on: May 12, 2021, 11:22:52 am »

I have a question for MiX - I know he's reverse timeline, but I want to ask while things are fresh.

Why did you resist mathdude's plan? What specifically were your worries, or what scum narrative did you foresee?

I'm not a fan of town suiciding, and given I didn't know math's power, I was skeptical that the best way of using it was by being exiled. He also said something happened if he died at night, so I thought that was a reward, and being exiled was a consolation prize. Also, him suggesting that was super townie, and I didn't want town to die like that.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #422 on: May 12, 2021, 11:46:49 am »

To rule out switching,
Vote: Chairs
Vote: Eddie
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #423 on: May 12, 2021, 11:52:23 am »

gkrieg being eliminated is a bummer, because I felt pretty good about him being town.

I'm really struggling to keep straight who was on which timeline to even know who I should be looking at right now.

I am a bit worried that the people who are pushing the whole 2 scum on each timeline are actually scum pushing us away from whatever the setup actually is. Unless someone has more concrete evidence, I don't remember seeing anything that suggests that other than someone speculating that it might be that, and it feels like a lot of play yesterday came from that assumption.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #424 on: May 12, 2021, 12:02:52 pm »

I agree that the two mafia per timeline thing is super terribad and anti-town.  Itís also insulting to the mod.  This is a 16-player setup.  To argue that only four non-town is somehow balanced is yucky. 

I could easily see a mafia team purposely voting together as a tactic. 

I could easily see mafia pressing for an exact number attempt instead of just confirming non-town on wagon as a defensive play.
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