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Author Topic: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Game Over! Town Wins!  (Read 62453 times)

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scolapasta

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #325 on: May 08, 2021, 09:32:38 pm »

mathdude, before your exile, can you tell us more about your conversation about this plan with MiX (without quotes, of course)? Was he for it, against it, mixed, etc.?

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #326 on: May 08, 2021, 10:03:59 pm »

Crazy day here with a 7yo bday party and some car maintenance gone awry. Really just checking in before passing out but pretty interested in what has transpired. I support voting Zero.
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mathdude

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #327 on: May 08, 2021, 10:29:48 pm »

mathdude, before your exile, can you tell us more about your conversation about this plan with MiX (without quotes, of course)? Was he for it, against it, mixed, etc.?

I didn't share too much with him, being unsure if I could trust him. He knew I wanted to die but didn't know why. I had said a bit more to him, but not much more, practically speaking.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #328 on: May 08, 2021, 10:31:32 pm »

I'm only read to page 11, busy times, and mothers day now.  Just posting to say I'm around.

I will say, given timelines have been sorted, would really make life easier if mod would just include that info in the vote counts...
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mathdude

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #329 on: May 08, 2021, 10:45:39 pm »

mathdude, before your exile, can you tell us more about your conversation about this plan with MiX (without quotes, of course)? Was he for it, against it, mixed, etc.?

I didn't share too much with him, being unsure if I could trust him. He knew I wanted to die but didn't know why. I had said a bit more to him, but not much more, practically speaking.

Oh, and MiX was strongly against it. They said if I'm town, I should not try to die D1, even though they knew my role gave some benefit if I died.

It was only through some more convincing of my own that MiX finally, reluctantly voted for me. They wanted me to full claim here in game and vote for myself first. It should be obvious that that would be too easy for scum to manipulate. I saved my own bike for the hammer intentionally.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #330 on: May 08, 2021, 10:57:59 pm »

Knowing there's exactly 1 scum out of 4 doesn't seem much better than knowing there's at least 1 scum out of 4, until you figure out who it is and the other 3 become ICs (which might take a long time or never happen). In other words, the worse outcome of guessing 0 seems almost as good as the better outcome of guessing 1. Let's not guess 1.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #331 on: May 08, 2021, 11:00:52 pm »

Guessing 2 doesn't seem as good as 0 either. I think we should guess 0.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #332 on: May 08, 2021, 11:13:58 pm »

Definitely zero.

Also, didn't even exile had happened.

But zero is the safe play.  If any other number is correct, that's great, but if it is a "no" we lose out.  Like, no, there is not exactly one mafia player in this set of four does not really help us...that still leaves 0, 2, 3, and 4, meaning it could still all be town.

Confirming mafia is there is best.
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scolapasta

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #333 on: May 08, 2021, 11:17:45 pm »

In case I don't get to post tomorrow (going through vaccine side effects as we speak  :( ), I think 1 is the worst choice. Between 0 and 2, I agree with the zero people.

One reason I have not yet seen: if one of the most likely, better to have that be in the NO side of things, since then we have some more idea there. Not sure if I'm explaining it well, but I can always do that after the fact, when I don't feel like I'm going to explode.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #334 on: May 08, 2021, 11:31:15 pm »

The best question to ask is: "what are the two most likely numbers of scum on my train?"
And then the follow-up is: "how do we beat distinguish between them?"

I think there are either 1 or 2. There can't be 3 unless we have some serious imbalance in the two timelines. And it would be quite unlikely scum would pass up such an easy "misexile", so I think it's less likely there are 0.

Agree or disagree?

We can deal with the 2nd question once we sort out this first one (a number of you immediately jumped to the second, and I initially did too, but I think we need to agree on the first one first).

It seems like most people missed ^this^ post. [Update - it should now ask about non-town, not ask about scum].

I do NOT want people to weigh in on how many I should guess. I think most people that have posted guesses so far (and even reasoning) have not considered what is in this quoted post.

This question is for ALL 15 PLAYERS, not just the 7 remaining on Reverse Timeline!
WHAT ARE THE TWO MOST LIKELY NUMBERS OF NON-TOWN PLAYERS ON MY WAGON?
(And if you also want to speculate, of the 7 remaining Reverse Timeline players, how many total non-town do you think there are?)

Once we sort of agree on that (which I hope will happen by 8 or 9am), then I will look for opinions on which number to guess. Until that time, anyone who says "you should guess zero" (or one, i.e two)... I wil not pay much attention to why you think so.

(I'll post a more detailed explanation of why this is so important to deal with these questions this way once I get the laptop out in an hour or so... typing all this on phone is annoying enough!)
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #335 on: May 08, 2021, 11:36:39 pm »

Meh, like I said, 0 is safe but boring.

I find it unlikely that the wagon is clean, and view a guess to how many we think there actually are (probably 1) as better.

But I am a natural gambler.

(I also think having a living M.D. is better than this madness, but whatever)

I think all of the people recommending 0 are assuming that there is a baddie in the pool and want it confirmed, which makes this a bit silly, “how many” is more fun than answering a question we “know” the answer to.

But don’t listen to me, the safe play is probably correct.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #336 on: May 09, 2021, 12:04:20 am »

I don't see 0 as the safe play. It's a gamble. If we get a "yes" we are golden. If we get a "no" it's about what we would have assumed anyway.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #337 on: May 09, 2021, 12:21:02 am »

I'm not going to guess 0. So everyone arguing for it can stop trying to say it's a good idea. I'll post the math behind my reasoning shortly I hope. My boy is sick and not sleeping well, so I'm trying to help him get back to sleep.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #338 on: May 09, 2021, 02:51:39 am »

Okay, let's see what kind of logical reasoning we can work into this situation.

People have been arguing that I should Guess 0, because if the answer is "yes", then there are 4 confirmed IC's.  But seriously, what are the chances of that actually happening?  This is RMM, and there are 1 or more likely 2 scum in the remaining 7 players of Reverse Timeline.  Add to that the fact that there could potentially be 2 scum factions (which would probably mean 2 or 3 out of 7 are scum) or there could be 3rd party players involved (again, I'd guess probably 2 or 3 out of 7 are non-town).  I'm going to mostly assume 2 non-town out of 7 for the remainder of this post.



As I said earlier, we need to sort of agree on how many scum (or non-town, actually) are most likely on my wagon (and we need the 2 most likely numbers).  If there are 2 total out of 7, I'd put the chances of 0 on wagon at less than 10%.  If a wagon is going to build quick, as it did, it's very possible scum would jump on it at some point, not wanting to be the last one to hammer a town, so they would have gotten on earlier.  And especially not expecting it to go to hammer so early, it's a free place to put a vote.  Mathematically, of 7 players and 5 town, there are 5 ways to pick 4 town and 35 ways to pick 4 random... 5/35=14%, but again, with the opportunity there, I think the chances of 4 town being there is much less.  (Also consider if there are 3 non-town total, chances of 4 town on my wagon is 1/35=3% chance!)

I think the chances of 1 non-town being on my wagon are 30-50%.  Again, assuming 2 scum who know each other, maybe they did go one on, one off, or maybe they didn't.  We don't really know.  We also didn't leave it long enough that they could watch, plan, coordinate (whether or not they have day chat), etc.

I also think the chances of 2 non-town on my wagon are about 30-50%.  I think 1 is mathematically more likely, but to find out there are 2 would not be unexpected.  Not expecting hammer to lock in their votes so soon, it's quite possible that 2 scum put their votes on, intending to take them off later if needed.  (Add to that that if there are 3+ non-town in the 7 remaining, the chances of 2 on my wagon goes up significantly, whether or not they know each other).

And finally, the chances of 3 or 4 non-town on my wagon are low, in my opinion - maybe around 10% again (though possibly less).  I don't see a reason to believe there is an overabundance of non-towns (it's not BM, and I know I'm town, so there are definitely town in the game).  Possible, yes.  Likely, no.  And as roles become known through the game, if there are a lot of 3rd party or you find out that there are 2 scum factions, then you could go back to the results of this and consider if maybe there were 3 on wagon.



If I Guess 0, the potential reward is great (4 IC's), but I give it 90+% chance that the answer is "no".  And what does that tell us?  That there's at least 1 on my wagon.  That's useless.  If there's 1, it's a shot in the dark (with role powers and with exiles) whether you look on or off my wagon next Reverse day/night - it will fully depend on how many are still alive at that time and what else is learned (if no one dies, 1 in 3 off wagon, 1 in 4 on wagon, again assuming 2 total, probably means looking off wagon).  But if there's 2, then you definitely want to look on wagon.

If I Guess 1, an answer of "yes" is not very helpful (as described above) - non-town is likely split 1-1 on and off wagon (depending on how other parts of the game go, I'd probably look off-wagon first, since there would likely be at least 1 in those 3).  But if the answer is "no", then you know there's either 0 or 2+ on wagon.  Maybe right now that's not helpful in some of your opinions.  But I'd strongly wager on there being 2+ in that case (and if as the game progresses, there does seem to be an indication that they could all be town, rather than 2+ non-town, then that polarizing distinction can be helpful then too!)

If I Guess 2, an answer of "yes" can be fairly helpful.  If one is scum and the other is 3rd party, it might be a bit harder to locate.  But if they're both scum, it would make it easier to pair them off.  But even if the answer is "no", that makes it fairly certain there is no more than 1 non-town on my wagon.  You can look elsewhere and leave that last 1 (if there even is 1, rather than 0) for later.  Out of 4 people on wagon, knowing that either 0 or 1 is non-town pretty much tells me you don't need to look here until LYLO or similar.  And if for some reason, there are 3+ non-town on my wagon, then again, it should become fairly obvious as the game progresses.



Summary:
If you want a 90% chance that my result tells us pretty much nothing useful ("there is at least 1 non-town in the 4 people on my wagon"), on the tiny chance that you get 4 conf-town, then I think you're pretty scummy as you want me to most likely waste my role.
If you're okay with either confirming 1 on my wagon, or using your reads and the progression of the game to distinguish between 0 or 2+ on my wagon, then picking 1 is the right choice.
If you can comfortably lump (0 or 1) non-town on my wagon, and leave the 4 of them mostly alone until near the end of the game if the answer is "no", but getting a "yes" to 2 would be super helpful, then picking 2 is the right choice.

I don't yet know what I want to pick.  I want the best odds for town in the game as a whole (that can be partly useful upon reveal, but potentially more useful as the game progresses).  We can't guarantee to get a "yes", no matter what we pick.  So how can we maximize the usefulness of a potential "no"?
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mathdude

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #339 on: May 09, 2021, 03:08:49 am »

And if you want to get even more complicated in things...

Look at each of the cases above (if I Guess 1 and the answer is "no"; if I Guess 1 and the answer is "yes", etc.) and find out what is likely to happen next!  Night actions tonight won't know the results yet.  But scum will likely suspect what the answer will already be (assuming there aren't 2 scum factions, and there are many or any 3rd parties).

If I Guess 1 and no scum are on my wagon, likely resulting in "no", they are sitting in great shape because you will think there are 2.  They night kill the other off-wagon person and they look pretty clear.
But if 2 scum are on my wagon, they also kill someone off wagon (or maybe even from Forward Timeline), to keep 2-2 on wagon.
These look too similar, and that's not ideal.

If I Guess 1 and 1 scum is on my wagon, they are pretty sure the answer will be "yes".  With 1 in 3 off-wagon being scum, and 1 in 4 on-wagon, they could either kill town on-wagon or from Forward Timeline to keep themselves fairly safe.
This isn't ideal either.

If I Guess 0, and there is no scum on my wagon, they likely lose (again, this is very unlikely scenario) as a voting block of 4 is powerful.  They would have to slowly kill off this block.  But if 1 or 2 is on my wagon, they pretty much have freedom to do whatever they want.

If I Guess 2, and they have 0 scum on my wagon, the answer will be "no", and they will be picked off pretty easily, since they are in the 3 off-wagon, regardless of what they do.  But if they have 1 on my wagon, and the answer still likely is "no", so the 1 of them off-wagon is in more danger since you'd likely look there first (getting a "no" that says there are either 0 or 1 on wagon) - so they likely kill one on-wagon to keep the balance fairly close.

If I Guess 2, and they do have 2 on my wagon, they know they are in danger when the "yes" comes up.  They can't touch any town on the wagon, or they are 2 out of 3.  So they have to kill either off-wagon or off-timeline.  But they will likely be found out easily enough if there are 2 on-wagon, just by voting patterns, etc.



I was thinking earlier that Guessing 1 was the better option (I'd rather have a potential "no" be from a polarizing 0 or 2+... rather than a potential "no" from a Guess of 2, where you can't distinguish whether it's 0 or 1 on-wagon).
But after looking at what position scum might be in (even tonight, not knowing what to do with their night kill, or potentially not having much choice without screwing themselves over), Guessing 2 actually looks pretty decent.

Looking for thoughts from anyone and everyone (not just the 7 Reverse Timeline).  How do you recommend I proceed and why?  I'll probably put the vote in around 2:30 or 3pm.  (Time to go to sleep now for a few hours).
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Awaclus

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #340 on: May 09, 2021, 06:54:08 am »



1) It's much more likely there's 0 scum on your wagon than 2+. It was an extremely towny wagon, the chances for 0 to be correct are definitely higher, not lower, than what the math suggests.

2) Knowing there's at least 1 scum in 4 is not anywhere near as useless as you're painting it as. We will have that information forever, and it will become more useful later in the game when some of those 4 players are dead and it's no longer a 1 in 4 chance but something better, maybe even a 1 in 1.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #341 on: May 09, 2021, 07:10:36 am »

A reminder that it's not "scum", it's "non-town".
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #342 on: May 09, 2021, 07:13:13 am »

As far as I'm concerned, non-town is by default scum.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #343 on: May 09, 2021, 07:29:27 am »

Yeah I’m sorry but I completely agree with Awaclus here. I think 0 is the best bet.

HOWEVER to answer your question, I think the most likely number of non-town players on the wagon is 1, and 2 and 0 are probably equally likely after that.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #344 on: May 09, 2021, 09:18:43 am »

I think there is probably one non-town on your wagon.

If there were 2 scum in the time line and they were known to each other, I don’t think they’d pile up together so soon. Different story if they are not known to one another, but I still think it’s probably one on and one off knowing how early in the day the exile went down.
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scolapasta

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #345 on: May 09, 2021, 10:00:16 am »

Yeah I’m sorry but I completely agree with Awaclus here. I think 0 is the best bet.

HOWEVER to answer your question, I think the most likely number of non-town players on the wagon is 1, and 2 and 0 are probably equally likely after that.

This is what I was trying to say last night, I think it's more likely 1 and 2 and 0 are about the same. Which is why I like either 0 or 2, because that gets us more info with a NO answer (i.e. likely 1). and in fact with a zero guess, if the anser is yes we know exactly, if the answer is NO, we know at least 1, and mire likely 1.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #346 on: May 09, 2021, 11:37:15 am »

oh man. I missed a lot. I have no idea. I will try to get an opinion before twilight ends.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #347 on: May 09, 2021, 11:49:00 am »

I'm here and caught up.

I think 2 is your best go, honestly.

If the answer comes back as "Yes", that's arguably as informative as guessing 0 and getting a "Yes". That's a huge up swing for us in knowing that there are 2-in-4 non-town on your wagon. If the answer comes back as "No" (which is possibly more likely), we can remove 2 (and almost certainly 3 & 4) as the number of non-town on your wagon.

That would mean that the number of non-town on your wagon is 0, or 1 - with 1 being the likely expected value in this case.

Guessing 1 and getting it confirmed does not give us any better odds than a random exile likely gives us. So it's safe to assume that there is LIKELY at least 1 scum in the 4 on your wagon. Certainly it's not a place that we would START our scum hunting from on future days.

BUT, if we find that the answer to the guess of 2 is YES, then it DOES inform our scum hunting on future days.

Basically, I think it is significantly more likely that there are 2 scum than 0 scum on your wagon, and thus a guess of 2 is far more valuable than a guess of 0 - with both guesses returning essentially the same information should the result come back "NO".
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Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #348 on: May 09, 2021, 11:57:57 am »

I think you guess zero, even though I'm pretty sure the answer is 1 or 2. Guessing 1 and getting a no is the worst case scenario, because it tells us that there's either zero or two scum on the wagon. Guessing zero and getting a no is legitimately helpful. Guessing zero and getting a yes is astonishingly helpful, like basically solves the game helpful. Guessing 2 or more and getting a no is pretty useless, though getting a yes would be amazing.

Outside of trying to game the system though, that wagon was scummy af and I would be shocked if there were no scum on it. Glooble is a top scum read because his indignation over mathdude's "don't vote for me" post reads a bit inauthentic, and that's very much the sort of post scum would pounce on to get a misexile. But then the people who jumped on after also don't exactly scream town. But there's no way they're all scum, that would be way too obvious. Plus Awaclus is Awaclus, so the wagon hop with no explanation is pretty on brand.

So I think the scum on wagon are Glooble and maybe cube? I can't remember who the other vote was besides the self-hammer.

Honestly, maybe you go for 1 here after all. I mean, given how confident I am that the answer ISN'T zero maybe we can take that as a given and then get the answer to 1 vs more than one.
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Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 1!
« Reply #349 on: May 09, 2021, 12:00:47 pm »

I think it doesn't make sense to reveal (at least D1/2) are flavor names and/or QT partners. But I will say this: I have NO CLUE what my flavor has to do with the theme. I mean it's a name, but when I try to google it, I don't see any (at least immediate) connection to Memento.

I also decided to rewatch Memento after reading Jonah's post and my flavor name also has 0 connection to the film.
I guess Jonah is joth?

He’s Jo-The O-nah! I have said repeatedly that I think he should go by Joth IRL

It was supposed to be J-to the-Onah but I made what's turned out to be a really fateful typo
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"I know old meta, and joth is useless day 1 but awesome town day 3 and on." --Teproc

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