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Author Topic: M131: Quarantine Mafia (Game Over)  (Read 22215 times)

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Awaclus

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #300 on: September 05, 2020, 01:55:29 am »

But why would the scum team target MiX?
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cayvie

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #301 on: September 05, 2020, 01:55:53 am »

what if the mafia targeted cayvie?

cayvie
MiX
joth
Awaclus
Straw
Dylan
Swowl
EFHW
scola

this would mean that scola is either the Doctor or the Jailkeeper. this also again makes Swowl the weak doctor and EFHW scum (because there were three deaths somehow, and the mafia kill was blocked in this scenario).

cayvie doctor
MiX cpr or quack
joth
Awaclus nurse
Straw cpr or quack
Dylan naive
Swowl weak
EFHW
scola paranoid

oops we run out of potential carriers. there's nobody who can be a partner with EFHW and still account for all 3 kills happening.

we can rule out the scenario in which the mafia targeted me for the nightkill.
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cayvie

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #302 on: September 05, 2020, 01:56:39 am »

But why would the scum team target MiX?

oh i'm just trying to see if we can flat-out solve the game. the mafia either targeted *someone* or holstered. i'm gonna brute force every damn scenario.
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cayvie

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #303 on: September 05, 2020, 01:59:03 am »

what if the mafia targeted scolapasta?

cayvie
MiX
joth
Awaclus
Straw
Dylan
Swowl
EFHW
scola

yet again, we get EFHW as scum and swowl as the weak doctor. but if EFHW is scum, then who doctored scola?

we can rule out the scenario where mafia targeted scolapasta
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cayvie

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #304 on: September 05, 2020, 02:01:29 am »

what if the mafia targeted EFHW?

cayvie
MiX
joth
Awaclus
Straw
Dylan
Swowl
EFHW
scola

if the mafia targeted EFHW, then, again, where did all 3 deaths come from? mix vigged joth, straw vigged dylan, and swowl died because??

we can rule out the scenario where mafia targeted EFHW
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cayvie

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #305 on: September 05, 2020, 02:08:22 am »

what if the mafia targeted Straw?

cayvie
MiX
joth
Awaclus
Straw
Dylan
Swowl
EFHW
scola

if mafia targeted straw, that means that the kill must have been blocked by the jailkeeper, as awaclus is the nurse and couldn't have protected straw.

we get swowl as weak and EFHW as scum for the same reasons as before, the three kills have to come from somewhere.

cayvie
MiX cpr/quack
joth
Awaclus
Straw cpr/quack
Dylan
Swowl weak
EFHW
scola

well shit, this scenario means that i have to be EFHW's partner, and it makes scola jailkeeper. is this consistent?

cayvie - targeted straw
MiX cpr/quack
joth doctor
Awaclus
Straw cpr/quack
Dylan naive
Swowl weak
EFHW
scola - paranoid

uh yeah this is logically consistent. so

if the mafia targeted Straw, then the team is EFHW/cayvie (i know it's not this one, but let's be thorough)
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cayvie

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #306 on: September 05, 2020, 02:13:33 am »

i didn't consider the mafia kill being blocked by the paranoid doctor in the case where mix was the mafia target. does that change anything?

cayvie - targeted MiX
MiX cpr/quack
joth - doctor
Awaclus
Straw cpr/quack
Dylan - naive
Swowl weak
EFHW
scola - paranoid

okay, cayvie/EFHW is another possible solution for mafia targeting MiX
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cayvie

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #307 on: September 05, 2020, 02:18:50 am »

actually this cayvie/EFHW team with scola as paranoid doctor is a valid solution in many scenarios where the mafia nightkill is blocked. i don't like it, but there it is. if scola is paranoid and i carried the kill, then you do have to consider it.

however, i don't!

so: either the mafia killed someone successfully, or the team is EFHW/Scolapasta and they targeted MiX.
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cayvie

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #308 on: September 05, 2020, 02:42:30 am »

what if joth was the mafia target?

cayvie
MiX
joth
Awaclus - nurse
Straw
Dylan
Swowl
EFHW
scola

well, in that case, could the weak doctor have died just for targeting mafia (i.e., in a situation where they would have lived if their target had been town)? let's see. in that scenario, we are stuck again with Swowl as weak doctor targeting scum!EFHW.

so why are there only 3 deaths? it must be because the mafia kill overlapped with another kill. and so MiX must be the quack. or he's the CPR doctor and the kill was jailkept. yes, EFHW/cayvie is the only team in that scenario too. logic is great, i love it.

but let's consider the situation where MiX is quack and the mafia kill went through, joth was just killed twice. how does that work out?

cayvie doctor
MiX quack
joth paranoid
Awaclus - nurse
Straw - cpr
Dylan naive
Swowl weak
EFHW
scola

so if mafia targeted joth, AND the weak doctor hit mafia, THEN the only possible teams are EFHW/scola and EFHW/cayvie

but what if the weak doctor hit town? WHAT THEN? well, this means that the other two deaths must be the result of the two viggish roles.

cayvie
MiX
joth
Awaclus - nurse
Straw quack/cpr
Dylan quack/cpr
Swowl
EFHW
scola

so what is MiX's role? he can't be a jailkeeper or regular doctor because joth is dead. so he must be weak, naive, or carrier.

if mix is carrier... EFHW, scola, and I could all be partners with him. i think there are valid solutions for all 3.

in fact i think any 2 of EFHW, scola, mix and myself could be mafia in this scenario. the only new info we know is if mafia successfully killed joth, then straw is town, and a vig.
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cayvie

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #309 on: September 05, 2020, 02:58:11 am »

what if mafia targeted Dylan?

cayvie
MiX
joth
Awaclus - nurse
Straw
Dylan
Swowl
EFHW
scola

well blah blah there's always that dumb EFHW/cayvie team with scola as paranoid. get it out of the way. i'm not a carrier, okay

so, what are the actual possibilities?

cayvie
MiX - cpr/quack
joth
Awaclus - nurse
Straw
Dylan - cpr/quack
Swowl
EFHW
scola

fill in the other kills. so, what is straw? not the doctor, the paranoid, or the weak doctor--must be naive or carrier. yeah we aren't narrowing it down too much. i think that in this scenario, all we can say is if mafia killed dylan, then MiX is town, and a vig.
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cayvie

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #310 on: September 05, 2020, 03:07:49 am »

eh i don't think i'm getting anywhere but sleepy

there's a bunch of EFHW scum / swowl weak doctor edge cases that show up but they're real specific. most likely the weak doctor didn't die because of targeting mafia, and in those scenarios, basically everyone can be a carrier.
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MiX

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #311 on: September 05, 2020, 07:53:55 am »

I really like the analysis here, but I think starting from "if mafia NKd X" is the wrong way to go. Instead, you should look at every possible team, and see what's possible.

For example, me and straw are an impossible team, because then scum couldn't kill both of our targets. This info extends to if joth/Dylan was NKd, then Straw/MiX is town, respectively.
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EFHW

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #312 on: September 05, 2020, 09:11:55 am »

You are being so bossy! Have you carried your method any further than that one inference?
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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #313 on: September 05, 2020, 09:18:09 am »

You are being so bossy! Have you carried your method any further than that one inference?

Yes, every other team is possible, but cayvie/scola pair is more unlikely than the other 8 (and mix/straw is impossible).
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cayvie

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #314 on: September 05, 2020, 11:44:16 am »

actually, from my perspective at least, eliminating mix/straw as a team tells me that at least one of scola/EFHW is a carrier
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cayvie

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #315 on: September 05, 2020, 11:49:33 am »

here's another inference:

at least one of mix/Straw is a vig (quack/CPR doc).
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cayvie

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #316 on: September 05, 2020, 12:57:53 pm »

we also know that neither MiX or scola has a protective role, unless that role is the CPR doctor.

so here's a pretty good strategy:

today we chop EFHW. EFHW will flip either town or carrier.

if EFHW flips town, then both MiX and Straw target scola, everyone else do nothing. Scola will either: live through the night, flip town, or flip carrier.

if scola lives through the night, that means one of two things. EITHER both MiX and Straw are town or one of them is a wolf and the other is the CPR doctor. there is no other way for scola to live through the night here. We can eliminate the MiX/Straw are both town option, because in that case, we have cleared everyone but cayvie, and there's no one left to be my partner. So we know that one of MiX/Straw is the CPR doctor and the other is a carrier. We also know that scola is town, unless we think that carriers tried to kill themselves n1. (is it even legal for carriers to self-target?) so this means that cayvie is a wolf. we chop cayvie, and then whichever of MiX/Straw is the CPR doctor shoots the other one at night. game over. unless the carriers kill the CPR doc at night, in which case we know that the one who is still alive between MiX/Straw is the remaining carrier, and chop them the next day.

if scola flips town, that means the team is either cayvie/MiX or cayvie/Straw and we tricked you. I know this isn't the case, but you don't.

if scola flips carrier, then we know the team is either scola/Straw or scola/MiX, which means that (if both Mix and Straw are alive tomorrow), that we can no-test and then whichever of them is the CPR/quack shoots the other and wins. and if one of them is dead, then we can chop the other and win.

if EFHW flips carrier

then hooray! in this scenario, night actions are: MiX targets cayvie, Straw targets scola, everyone else does nothing.

if either cayvie or scola flips carrier, then hooray, we have won the game.

if both cayvie and scola flip town, then we know that the team is either MiX/EFHW or Straw/EFHW, and the carriers used their kill on one of cayvie/scola. in this scenario, we no test, and then whichever is the CPR/quack between MiX and Straw targets the other at night, winning the game.

if both cayvie and scola survive, then, uh... this means that one of MiX/Straw is the CPR doctor and the other is the remaining carrier, and the carrier decided to target the person that the other was targeting. in which case, yet again, we have them kill each other at night and solve the game.

if cayvie flips town and scola survives, then: was there another death? if yes, then we know that Straw or Scola is the remaining carrier. if the team is EFHW/Scola there's only one possible permutation: the one where Swowl was weak, Straw is naive, Dylan was vig1, Mix is vig2, Awaclus is nurse, cayvie is doc, and joth was jailkeeper. if the team is EFHW/Straw, there's a lot more permutations--it's much more likely. chop Straw and probably win, like 90%. if i'm the only death, then this scenario basically means that mafia decided to no-kill (or carrier!scola tried to commit suicide, if that's even possible--and if this is what happened, he risked a 50/50 shot at losing the game on the spot, gambling that Straw was the CPR doctor and not the quack). so either Straw or scola is the remaining mafia, and MiX is a vig. We chop one, MiX shoots the other at night, if necessary, town wins.

if scola flips town and cayvie survives, then: follow the same logic as above.

this is a pretty darn good plan, from my perspective. feel free to ask questions. and post concerns.
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Awaclus

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #317 on: September 05, 2020, 02:55:13 pm »

We're at MyLo. Because we have a collection of docs and vigs, it's not set in stone that we will lose if we mistest here, but certainly if we mistest today and go into N2 with confirmed unprotected townies, we're not testing anyone tomorrow.
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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #318 on: September 05, 2020, 03:04:39 pm »

I'm pretty tired and slightly under the influence, but from what I can tell in this state, the plan should work iff EFHW flips carrier. If she flips town and we do that plan, we're going to struggle and probably lose, so let's not follow that half of the plan.
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cayvie

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #319 on: September 05, 2020, 03:42:01 pm »

I'm pretty tired and slightly under the influence, but from what I can tell in this state, the plan should work iff EFHW flips carrier. If she flips town and we do that plan, we're going to struggle and probably lose, so let's not follow that half of the plan.

it frankly depends on if you trust me. if EFHW flips town *and you trust that i'm town*, then it's a guaranteed win for town
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Awaclus

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #320 on: September 05, 2020, 03:52:45 pm »

I'm pretty tired and slightly under the influence, but from what I can tell in this state, the plan should work iff EFHW flips carrier. If she flips town and we do that plan, we're going to struggle and probably lose, so let's not follow that half of the plan.

it frankly depends on if you trust me. if EFHW flips town *and you trust that i'm town*, then it's a guaranteed win for town

But if you're not town, it's a guaranteed win for scum.
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EFHW

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #321 on: September 05, 2020, 06:37:14 pm »

My name does keep coming up in cayvie's analysis.  I'm going to have to work through my own analysis now to defend myself,  so I'll need a bit of time.
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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #322 on: September 05, 2020, 06:38:49 pm »

You are being so bossy! Have you carried your method any further than that one inference?

Yes, every other team is possible, but cayvie/scola pair is more unlikely than the other 8 (and mix/straw is impossible).
So how come cayvie has all these findings and you aren't reporting any?
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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #323 on: September 05, 2020, 06:41:33 pm »

If it looks like my flip will be decisive, I'll probably agree you should test me. But I want to see it for myself before I go along with something like that.
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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #324 on: September 05, 2020, 06:43:44 pm »

You are being so bossy! Have you carried your method any further than that one inference?

Yes, every other team is possible, but cayvie/scola pair is more unlikely than the other 8 (and mix/straw is impossible).
So how come cayvie has all these findings and you aren't reporting any?

They're pretty obvious...cayvie's conclusions all stem from the fact that both joth and dylan died while me and straw targeted them, and that's the easiest thing you can say about the setup. It's also where the deduction ends.

Cayvie's plan is bad, but testing EFHW isn't. There's definitely at least 1 scum in (EFHW/scola/cayvie), and EFHW is the most likely one out of mechanics due to weak doctor existing.
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