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Author Topic: M131: Quarantine Mafia (Game Over)  (Read 22206 times)

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cayvie

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #275 on: September 04, 2020, 02:31:59 pm »

screw it im callin it, we're popcorning these claims.

scolapasta, you claim next. then you pick someone to claim, etc etc.
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cayvie

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #276 on: September 04, 2020, 02:40:07 pm »

also: i certainly have mech-solvey thoughts, but i would strongly recommend that we refrain from doing anything else in the thread before we finish these nurse claims.
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MiX

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #277 on: September 04, 2020, 02:44:43 pm »

also: i certainly have mech-solvey thoughts, but i would strongly recommend that we refrain from doing anything else in the thread before we finish these nurse claims.

I completely agree, I'm so itchy to solve once the nurse is out. Come on, everyone claim already!

Also we don't need to popcorn if we're just doing the nurse claim.
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scolapasta

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #278 on: September 04, 2020, 02:59:45 pm »

This day just started yeah? So let's slow down a bit, how does nurse claiming help us? My gut is that it would help scum more, no?
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MiX

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #279 on: September 04, 2020, 03:05:23 pm »

This day just started yeah? So let's slow down a bit, how does nurse claiming help us? My gut is that it would help scum more, no?

A nurse claim narrows down who's scum, not to mention help with the mechanical aspect of the setup.
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Straw

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #280 on: September 04, 2020, 03:56:25 pm »

I'm not a nurse.

We should start trying to narrow down the doctor possibilities. Dylan seems easy enough to do.

Dylan:
-Not Paranoid Doc.
-Not Weak Doc unless Straw is the Paranoid Doc
-Not Normal Doc unless Straw is the Paranoid Doc or Swowl was the Weak Doc and mafia killed.
-Could be CPR/Quack/Naive Doc.
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MiX

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #281 on: September 04, 2020, 04:01:48 pm »

They're not Weak Doc because you can't be Paranoid Doc: otherwise Dylan couldn't die.
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Awaclus

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #282 on: September 04, 2020, 04:46:21 pm »

I am the nurse and what the fuck was that order about, vote: MiX and strong FOS on anyone who went along with it and ended the day early.
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MiX

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #283 on: September 04, 2020, 04:47:46 pm »

I am the nurse and what the fuck was that order about, vote: MiX and strong FOS on anyone who went along with it and ended the day early.

What? Of course random is better than signup, the chances scum likes the random are the same as setup, except they can't see it coming.
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Awaclus

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #284 on: September 04, 2020, 04:48:59 pm »

I am the nurse and what the fuck was that order about, vote: MiX and strong FOS on anyone who went along with it and ended the day early.

What? Of course random is better than signup, the chances scum likes the random are the same as setup, except they can't see it coming.

It wasn't a random order, you saw what signup order was and then decided that specific order wasn't convenient enough for you.
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MiX

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #285 on: September 04, 2020, 04:50:37 pm »

I am the nurse and what the fuck was that order about, vote: MiX and strong FOS on anyone who went along with it and ended the day early.

What? Of course random is better than signup, the chances scum likes the random are the same as setup, except they can't see it coming.

It wasn't a random order, you saw what signup order was and then decided that specific order wasn't convenient enough for you.

That's confirmation bias, what actually happened is that I'm town and I randomized an order. How do I know if scum likes signup?
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Awaclus

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #286 on: September 04, 2020, 04:51:14 pm »

I am the nurse and what the fuck was that order about, vote: MiX and strong FOS on anyone who went along with it and ended the day early.

What? Of course random is better than signup, the chances scum likes the random are the same as setup, except they can't see it coming.

It wasn't a random order, you saw what signup order was and then decided that specific order wasn't convenient enough for you.

That's confirmation bias, what actually happened is that I'm town and I randomized an order. How do I know if scum likes signup?

You know if scum likes signup by checking whether or not you like signup. If you like it, scum likes it.
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MiX

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #287 on: September 04, 2020, 04:54:06 pm »

As town...

Your argument seems to be "you don't like the signup order, and since you're scum, scum doesn't like the signup order, so you randomizing it instead of taking signup order is scummy".

For all I knew, you could be scum that liked it.
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Awaclus

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #288 on: September 04, 2020, 05:01:06 pm »

As town...

Your argument seems to be "you don't like the signup order, and since you're scum, scum doesn't like the signup order, so you randomizing it instead of taking signup order is scummy".

For all I knew, you could be scum that liked it.

My argument is "you randomized it instead of taking signup order, which must be because you don't like the signup order because that's the only reason why anyone would do that, which must be because you're scum because that's the only reason why anyone would have a preference for one order over another because only scum knows any other players' roles besides their own".
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MiX

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #289 on: September 04, 2020, 05:11:56 pm »

As town...

Your argument seems to be "you don't like the signup order, and since you're scum, scum doesn't like the signup order, so you randomizing it instead of taking signup order is scummy".

For all I knew, you could be scum that liked it.

My argument is "you randomized it instead of taking signup order, which must be because you don't like the signup order because that's the only reason why anyone would do that, which must be because you're scum because that's the only reason why anyone would have a preference for one order over another because only scum knows any other players' roles besides their own".

I randomized it to make sure scum didn't like signup order, this way I make sure no one else has a say in it, scum can't take advantage of it in any way, I hate signup as it creates a meta of signing into a game, scum could've talked about what would happen with a signup order so they could be more prepared (somehow), and I think all orders should be randomized if what we want is an order scum can't manipulate.

The fact that you think signup order should be standard doesn't mean everyone else does too.
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Awaclus

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #290 on: September 04, 2020, 05:34:20 pm »

I randomized it to make sure scum didn't like signup order, this way I make sure no one else has a say in it, scum can't take advantage of it in any way, I hate signup as it creates a meta of signing into a game, scum could've talked about what would happen with a signup order so they could be more prepared (somehow), and I think all orders should be randomized if what we want is an order scum can't manipulate.

The fact that you think signup order should be standard doesn't mean everyone else does too.

I don't necessarily think that it should be the standard, but it is.

The only difference the order makes to scum is whether the scums are next to each other or not. There was nothing to prepare for because we didn't do anything at all D1. If you were town, scum would have made their first actual decision N1, at which point they would have known your randomized order anyway and been exactly as prepared as they would have been with the signup order.

If you are making in-game decisions that affect the in-game outcome for meta-game reasons, you should stop doing that immediately, but I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt and assuming that you're scum instead.

It is not true that we had an order that scum couldn't manipulate. On the contrary, we had an order that scum did manipulate (specifically, by deciding to re-roll it).
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MiX

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #291 on: September 04, 2020, 05:45:39 pm »

How do you know scum manipulated it and not town?

I understand your argument, but that only works if you know scum's position on the order, which we don't know.

Voting for me is fine though, chances are Straw's scum, as the chances that me/Dylan/Straw have exactly CPR/Quack/Naive and scum NKd who the Naive picked are low, so it puts me in a soft conflict with Straw.

We can't both be scum though, so we should probably find the scum in cayvie/EFHW/scola.
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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #292 on: September 04, 2020, 05:46:30 pm »

I am the nurse and what the fuck was that order about, vote: MiX and strong FOS on anyone who went along with it and ended the day early.
Agreed about the order and early day end.

I am the nurse and what the fuck was that order about, vote: MiX and strong FOS on anyone who went along with it and ended the day early.

What? Of course random is better than signup, the chances scum likes the random are the same as setup, except they can't see it coming.
The choice didn't have to be between random or signup, so don't imply that those were the only options.
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MiX

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #293 on: September 04, 2020, 05:53:44 pm »

I am the nurse and what the fuck was that order about, vote: MiX and strong FOS on anyone who went along with it and ended the day early.
Agreed about the order and early day end.

I am the nurse and what the fuck was that order about, vote: MiX and strong FOS on anyone who went along with it and ended the day early.

What? Of course random is better than signup, the chances scum likes the random are the same as setup, except they can't see it coming.
The choice didn't have to be between random or signup, so don't imply that those were the only options.

Any reads-based order would've taken too long for when we were in the day and we hadn't really interacted yet, and the other arbitrary ones are worse than random.
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Awaclus

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #294 on: September 04, 2020, 05:56:50 pm »

How do you know scum manipulated it and not town?

Because town had no reason to do it.

I understand your argument, but that only works if you know scum's position on the order, which we don't know.

I don't know scum's position on the order, but I don't have to. I know that it makes a difference whether or not they're next to each other (at the moment, I can't be assed to actually think through the pros and cons of each to figure out which one they want to be but I'm 90-93% sure they're substantially different), and from that and the fact that it was re-rolled, we can deduce that the original signup order had the less convenient option.
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EFHW

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #295 on: September 04, 2020, 09:17:14 pm »

I have to say, Awaclus does have a good argument.  MiX, how can you say scum could manipulate the order when signing up? None of us knew our alignments when we signed up!

No cc here.
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EFHW

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #296 on: September 04, 2020, 09:35:36 pm »

And Awaclus,  what pattern in a given order would be bad for scum?
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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #297 on: September 04, 2020, 09:54:35 pm »

And Awaclus,  what pattern in a given order would be bad for scum?
It seems like at a mechanical level, scum would want to be next to each other. That way, they reduce their chances of getting vigged, and by having the person in front submit the kill, they avoid getting roleblocked entirely.

Beyond that, scum would probably want to position the towniest person either just behind or just in front of them. Behind would be useful because if one of them does get vigged, it means the vig might get killed, but it also runs the risk of the person behind them being protected. It also runs the risk of the person behind dying from other methods (weak doc, vig). In front would be useful because they know that their target will not be protected and wouldn't die from other means.
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EFHW

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #298 on: September 04, 2020, 10:35:18 pm »

What would be a bad enough position that scum would try to influence how the order is determined?
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cayvie

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
« Reply #299 on: September 05, 2020, 01:49:08 am »

i'm gonna see if this is solveable. we had 3 doctor deaths. let's take Awaclus's nurse claim as factual. great.

cayvie
MiX
joth
Awaclus
Straw
Dylan
Swowl
EFHW
scola

let's assume all town followed the chain.

there are four possible sources of death: carrier NK, quack, CPR, and weak doctor targeting mafia.

did the weak doctor target mafia? dylan targeted swowl (town), and joth targeted awaclus (nurse). was swowl weak targeting mafia? if that's the case, that makes EFHW mafia. however, in this case, that means there is a kill that is not accounted for. either the mafia holstered their shot, shot someone who was protected, shot someone who was dying anyway, or dylan was a vig and swowl was dying anyway. these are possible. it squares with the fact that none of the kills was anyone who was particularly town-leader-y. i would have expected myself or MiX to die.

so potentially, the mafia targeted me or mix, but we were protected. let's say the mafia targeted MiX. this narrows down the possibilities immensely! what can my role be in that instance? I can't be jailkeeper, because joth died. I can't be CPR doctor, because there were 3 deaths, and we're already blocking the mafia death. so if the mafia targeted MiX, i must be the regular doctor. it also makes Straw the Quack, Swowl the Weak doctor, EFHW mafia, and MiX the CPR doctor. So what kind of doctor was Dylan? Dylan must have been the Naive doctor, because if Dylan was the paranoid doctor, then Swowl wouldn't have died.

So, if MiX was the mafia target, this means that EFHW and Scola are the scumteam.

i think that this is literally the only possible scumteam who could have targeted MiX last night, and this is the setup it would have had to be. fascinating! i'm definitely gonna go thru and see if i can solve the other potential mafia targets last night.

cayvie - doctor
MiX - cpr (or quack)
joth - jailkeeper
Awaclus - nurse
Straw - quack (or CPR)
Dylan - naive doctor
Swowl - weak doctor
EFHW carruer
scola carrier
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