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Author Topic: M131: Quarantine Mafia (Game Over)  (Read 41682 times)

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Swowl

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #175 on: August 31, 2020, 04:55:07 pm »

To summarize, the chain should look like this:
A -> A's scumread -> A's townread (B) -> B's scumread -> B's townread (C) -> C's scumread -> C's townread (D) -> D's scumread -> A
Which is an 8 person chain, with whoever's left out replacing who's exiled.

So... we have a 2/9, or 22% chance, of picking skum to be the person that starts the chain. That would be like the one obvious horrible downside. IDK exactly why I guess, probably they pick their partner... but any which way, giving skum the choice is not good.

Weighing it against random though... I guess it is not horrible based on chance.

Any given doctor, has a 2/6 chance of being a killing doctor. That is 33%.
Any given doctor, has a 2/7 chance at targeting skum tonight. That is 28%.
So... and this is why I suck at math bc I have no clue if this is right or not... but that is a 9% chance if a doctor randomly chose a target, for them to TARGET skum.
Then you would have to factor in that person being doctored and things like that. So, let's just say random chance of a doctor being a killing doctor and randomly selecting a target, and that target is skum, and they actually kill them... is less than 9%.

Whereas, assuming we do not elect Skum to be the picker of course, it is still every doc has a 33% chance of being a doc, and every Doc Target has a 28% chance of being skum... so it is exactly 9% chance (opposed to less than 9% chance) if we follow the chain idea.

And then yeah, IDK what the chances in random are for "random good doctor preventing a town death is" because everything is so potentially open in random... but it is a small thing.

meh, even with the downside... I guess the plan still has it's merits.



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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #176 on: August 31, 2020, 04:57:57 pm »

i would say that i think any flaw in the chain is balanced out by the benefit of: the only kills that carriers know to be safe are ones that they are assigned to in the chain. so either carriers risk outing one of their own, or risk having the kill blocked.

yeah but math out how much that re-assigned kill choice messes with our ability to deduce who is who?
I mean, in a game that started with less killing potential or something and we had more days after tomorrow to figure it out, sure. It all is gravy. But assuming we mislynch today, and there are three deaths tomorrow... if we factor in that any given dead player did not neccissarily have to be killed from the person behind them in the order.... that REALLY messes with the deductive logic.

you got it btw.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

MiX

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #177 on: August 31, 2020, 05:05:33 pm »

The triangle has merit. However it has the same potential flaw the chain has. Only worse should it end up happening.

does the chain have any flaw that random targeting doesn't?

Yes. Or technically yes. But that thing is the thing i am talking about

Your flaw is always in the setup regardless of chain. Except if everyone picks scum, then the chances of scum dying are INCREDIBLY low, because multiple people will pick them. Whereas the chances of town being protected plummet, so scum can NK whoever they want, basically.

I don't really see it as a flaw of my plan, but rather how the setup works in general.
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cayvie

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #178 on: August 31, 2020, 05:13:07 pm »

the other benefit i see to mix's specific ordering plan, is that even if we do mess up and pick a wolf to start the chain, the wolf has to declare the other wolf their top scumread in order to be adjacent.
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Swowl

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #179 on: August 31, 2020, 05:15:15 pm »

The triangle has merit. However it has the same potential flaw the chain has. Only worse should it end up happening.

does the chain have any flaw that random targeting doesn't?

Yes. Or technically yes. But that thing is the thing i am talking about

Your flaw is always in the setup regardless of chain. Except if everyone picks scum, then the chances of scum dying are INCREDIBLY low, because multiple people will pick them. Whereas the chances of town being protected plummet, so scum can NK whoever they want, basically.

I don't really see it as a flaw of my plan, but rather how the setup works in general.

hey man in case it is not clear - I am really fenced about this, and I do not think you have a "bad plan". Especially vs random, which is the point I was trying to make previous to the quoted post. If the flaw is in the set up then fine, ok. But your plan was made off the set up, so anything that could happen, given your plan, even if it is the set up that generated the issue, is kinda at fault of the plan as well. If that makes sense.

To be suppppperrr clear - I am not a diehard for it, but I am in support of the plan vs random. That is how my post should of read.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #180 on: August 31, 2020, 05:15:37 pm »

the other benefit i see to mix's specific ordering plan, is that even if we do mess up and pick a wolf to start the chain, the wolf has to declare the other wolf their top scumread in order to be adjacent.

that is a fair upside.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

MiX

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #181 on: August 31, 2020, 05:22:49 pm »

The triangle has merit. However it has the same potential flaw the chain has. Only worse should it end up happening.

does the chain have any flaw that random targeting doesn't?

Yes. Or technically yes. But that thing is the thing i am talking about

Your flaw is always in the setup regardless of chain. Except if everyone picks scum, then the chances of scum dying are INCREDIBLY low, because multiple people will pick them. Whereas the chances of town being protected plummet, so scum can NK whoever they want, basically.

I don't really see it as a flaw of my plan, but rather how the setup works in general.

hey man in case it is not clear - I am really fenced about this, and I do not think you have a "bad plan". Especially vs random, which is the point I was trying to make previous to the quoted post. If the flaw is in the set up then fine, ok. But your plan was made off the set up, so anything that could happen, given your plan, even if it is the set up that generated the issue, is kinda at fault of the plan as well. If that makes sense.

To be suppppperrr clear - I am not a diehard for it, but I am in support of the plan vs random. That is how my post should of read.

I don't really understand. You see flaws to the plan, but you're fine with it? Maybe the flaws are just inherent and my plan is the best plan anyway. There's bound to be flaws in any plan anyway.

the other benefit i see to mix's specific ordering plan, is that even if we do mess up and pick a wolf to start the chain, the wolf has to declare the other wolf their top scumread in order to be adjacent.

that is a fair upside.

And one I pointed out earlier :P

I think. I meant to anyway.
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Swowl

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #182 on: August 31, 2020, 05:32:47 pm »

yes miX - that.... I think that your plan is equal in the sense that we find skum less, specifically tomorrow, and while there is the downside of potentially being put out tomorrow, so is there with random... but the clear upside is at least some structured deduction of who can do what. Which, if we get just a little lucky, should be enough.

I always just start looking at it from the worst possible case.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #183 on: August 31, 2020, 05:37:08 pm »

yes miX - that.... I think that your plan is equal in the sense that we find skum less, specifically tomorrow, and while there is the downside of potentially being put out tomorrow, so is there with random... but the clear upside is at least some structured deduction of who can do what. Which, if we get just a little lucky, should be enough.

I always just start looking at it from the worst possible case.

Less than what?
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Swowl

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #184 on: August 31, 2020, 05:52:48 pm »

yes miX - that.... I think that your plan is equal in the sense that we find skum less, specifically tomorrow, and while there is the downside of potentially being put out tomorrow, so is there with random... but the clear upside is at least some structured deduction of who can do what. Which, if we get just a little lucky, should be enough.

I always just start looking at it from the worst possible case.

Less than what?

less than random. based on potential manipulation.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

MiX

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #185 on: August 31, 2020, 05:57:16 pm »

yes miX - that.... I think that your plan is equal in the sense that we find skum less, specifically tomorrow, and while there is the downside of potentially being put out tomorrow, so is there with random... but the clear upside is at least some structured deduction of who can do what. Which, if we get just a little lucky, should be enough.

I always just start looking at it from the worst possible case.

Less than what?

less than random. based on potential manipulation.

Random what? Independent targeting, or a random chain?
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Swowl

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #186 on: August 31, 2020, 07:42:56 pm »

yes miX - that.... I think that your plan is equal in the sense that we find skum less, specifically tomorrow, and while there is the downside of potentially being put out tomorrow, so is there with random... but the clear upside is at least some structured deduction of who can do what. Which, if we get just a little lucky, should be enough.

I always just start looking at it from the worst possible case.

Less than what?

less than random. based on potential manipulation.

Random what? Independent targeting, or a random chain?

sorry - random actions. like random in this sense equals "no plan at all"
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #187 on: August 31, 2020, 10:11:58 pm »

Where did Straw go?
I liked Straw. I wanna know what Straw thinks about shit.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

mail-mi

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia
« Reply #188 on: August 31, 2020, 11:09:33 pm »

Vote Count 1.2

scolapasta (2): jotheonah, cayvie
Dylan23 (1): MiX
Straw (1): Swowl
MiX (1): Dylan32
EFHW (1): Awaclus

Not Voting (3): EFHW, Straw, scolapasta

With 9 alive it takes 5 to Test.

Day 1 ends at 11:40 AM FT on Friday, September 4th.
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cayvie

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #189 on: August 31, 2020, 11:19:34 pm »

Where did Straw go?
I liked Straw. I wanna know what Straw thinks about shit.

same tbh
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Dylan32

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #190 on: August 31, 2020, 11:48:00 pm »

Ok, I think I'm caught up. Definitely think we should coordinate rather than pure random.  One thing I thought, what if instead of the two triangles and a pair, we don't exile today so that we have 3 triangle chains, and base it on sign up order instead of giving scum the chance to organize themselves into the same group or whatever? There would obviously still be a chance they would be, but it's at least purely random at that point instead of being somewhat more likely than random if we let them influence it.

I'm not thinking MiX is scum so far. Could be an over correction on my part, but I think his logic has been at least pro-town so far, so I'm ok with the operating assumption that he's town for now. I have a gut town read on both swowl and cayvie, but looking at that list I'm thinking I might just be townreading high recent activity.
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Forum Mafia Record - Wins: 14 - NM9, M97, RMM41, M99, M102, M104, M119, M126, RMM56, M133, M134, RMM58, RMM59, RMM61, RMM60; Losses 15 - RMM37, M89, M94, M95, M96, M100, RMM47 M109, M110, M120, M127, M129, M131, M132, M136; MVPs: 1 - NM9

Dylan32

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #191 on: August 31, 2020, 11:48:54 pm »

I said before, I missed his entry post. Or are you joking because of my question to you?

Hmm...I guess this makes sense.

I had a whole MiX-Awaclus partner speculation  going. Or maybe MiX-joth.

Which was it then?

Dylan can you come back, I miss you.

Sorry man. Sister had surgery this weekend, so I’ve been pretty preoccupied. It feels good to be missed though lol. I’ll spend more time thinking and rereading here in a bit and get back to you. Not dodging your earlier question, just haven’t been in the headspace to answer for a bit.

all good hopefully?

Yeah, recovering well.
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Forum Mafia Record - Wins: 14 - NM9, M97, RMM41, M99, M102, M104, M119, M126, RMM56, M133, M134, RMM58, RMM59, RMM61, RMM60; Losses 15 - RMM37, M89, M94, M95, M96, M100, RMM47 M109, M110, M120, M127, M129, M131, M132, M136; MVPs: 1 - NM9

Swowl

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #192 on: August 31, 2020, 11:58:54 pm »

Ok, I think I'm caught up. Definitely think we should coordinate rather than pure random.  One thing I thought, what if instead of the two triangles and a pair, we don't exile today so that we have 3 triangle chains, and base it on sign up order instead of giving scum the chance to organize themselves into the same group or whatever? There would obviously still be a chance they would be, but it's at least purely random at that point instead of being somewhat more likely than random if we let them influence it.

I'm not thinking MiX is scum so far. Could be an over correction on my part, but I think his logic has been at least pro-town so far, so I'm ok with the operating assumption that he's town for now. I have a gut town read on both swowl and cayvie, but looking at that list I'm thinking I might just be townreading high recent activity.

You know what. I am gonna think about the triangle thing again. There are only 2 killing docs. Does that put skum in a shitty spot?
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #193 on: September 01, 2020, 12:00:31 am »

meh no.
The link the chain creates for roles like the JK makes it def better I think.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #194 on: September 01, 2020, 12:04:17 am »

I do like using the sign up order more than the mix chain idea though.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #195 on: September 01, 2020, 12:05:33 am »

or not the chain idea, but the selection process. I like the chain idea.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #196 on: September 01, 2020, 12:40:57 am »

or not the chain idea, but the selection process. I like the chain idea.

Wait, so you think just do a chain in signup order?
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Forum Mafia Record - Wins: 14 - NM9, M97, RMM41, M99, M102, M104, M119, M126, RMM56, M133, M134, RMM58, RMM59, RMM61, RMM60; Losses 15 - RMM37, M89, M94, M95, M96, M100, RMM47 M109, M110, M120, M127, M129, M131, M132, M136; MVPs: 1 - NM9

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #197 on: September 01, 2020, 01:13:01 am »

I just had nearly a full post typed that was going to argue that a triangle with a JK is as good as a chain, but I think I would have been wrong. The chain is likely better concerning the JK’s effectiveness and possible gained info about that particular role I think.
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Forum Mafia Record - Wins: 14 - NM9, M97, RMM41, M99, M102, M104, M119, M126, RMM56, M133, M134, RMM58, RMM59, RMM61, RMM60; Losses 15 - RMM37, M89, M94, M95, M96, M100, RMM47 M109, M110, M120, M127, M129, M131, M132, M136; MVPs: 1 - NM9

MiX

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #198 on: September 01, 2020, 07:47:27 am »

I hate signup order so much. But that's a personal thing, other than scum knowing N0 what it is there's nothing wrong with it. I just hate how it can create signup metas.

Given how little posting there's been, I guess my plan doesn't really work and would just get in the way of EoD, so, sure, signup it is.
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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #199 on: September 01, 2020, 08:22:57 am »

Where did Straw go?
I liked Straw. I wanna know what Straw thinks about shit.
Hi, sorry. I just realized that I hadn't posted in a bit. I'll try to be more active.

For the whole chain picking, I'd be against doing it randomly or in signup order. This is partially for moral reasons (I'd rather not have so much of the game be decided by chance) and partially because I think that chain picking will give us plenty of info on people, which we are desperately in need of. Other than that, I'm not sure which plan is best.
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