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Author Topic: M131: Quarantine Mafia (Game Over)  (Read 41630 times)

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MiX

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #150 on: August 31, 2020, 08:12:38 am »

Wait, this plan is equivalent to random. Everyone gets targeted by someone else.  It doesn't matter who targets who.

Well, almost, but this plan minimizes scum picking scum. We want to maximize vigs picking scum, so this is better than random.
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EFHW

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #151 on: August 31, 2020, 08:34:19 am »

I don't think it is better than random given the usual accuracy of day 1 scumhunting. One of A,B,C could easily be scum. What it does do is force A, B, and C to state specific reads. Is that beneficial to town? Isn't that the kind of information scum like to have? If they were scum, that could be beneficial, but they are being chosen because they are being seen as towny.
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EFHW

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #152 on: August 31, 2020, 08:35:32 am »

I can't say I like this plan. It's a good idea to try to include some scumhunting, but it's only A, B, and C's scumhunting,  and you are proposing yourself for A! I don't have a better plan atm, but I'm not seeing the benefits of this one.

I'd rather not propose myself, but someone needs to start the chain.

Who's your top townread? Who's your top scumread?
I don't want to answer this question. It doesn't feel right.
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MiX

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #153 on: August 31, 2020, 08:40:33 am »

I don't think it is better than random given the usual accuracy of day 1 scumhunting. One of A,B,C could easily be scum. What it does do is force A, B, and C to state specific reads. Is that beneficial to town? Isn't that the kind of information scum like to have? If they were scum, that could be beneficial, but they are being chosen because they are being seen as towny.

Day 1 scumreading is very accurate. Day 1 exiling isn't, because scum gets in the way of that. I'd refer to a previous game if Straw wasn't here.

Giving reads is fine, everyone wants to say their top scumread anyway, and just 1 townread barely matters. Also, if scum wants to target scum, they also have to bus a little, which helps town.

It's definitely better than no plan, and it seems like the best "random" chain you can make, outside setup order.

I can't say I like this plan. It's a good idea to try to include some scumhunting, but it's only A, B, and C's scumhunting,  and you are proposing yourself for A! I don't have a better plan atm, but I'm not seeing the benefits of this one.

I'd rather not propose myself, but someone needs to start the chain.

Who's your top townread? Who's your top scumread?
I don't want to answer this question. It doesn't feel right.

Do you not have a scumread?

Vote: EFHW
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EFHW

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #154 on: August 31, 2020, 11:01:28 am »

How do you know Day 1 scumreading is very accurate? I haven't noticed that. Space and I were going to try to do a study on it, but we never did.

You are making a few assumptions in voting me. 1. that I have no scumreads. 2. that not having scumreads this early is a scumtell. 3. that not doing what you command is scummy.

Your plan is not better than random. But it's not necessarily worse. If A, B and C are all fine with it, then I don't really care. I liked trying to puzzle out my pairs plan, but I think it's not better than random, either.
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MiX

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #155 on: August 31, 2020, 11:13:21 am »

How do you know Day 1 scumreading is very accurate? I haven't noticed that. Space and I were going to try to do a study on it, but we never did.

You are making a few assumptions in voting me. 1. that I have no scumreads. 2. that not having scumreads this early is a scumtell. 3. that not doing what you command is scummy.

Your plan is not better than random. But it's not necessarily worse. If A, B and C are all fine with it, then I don't really care. I liked trying to puzzle out my pairs plan, but I think it's not better than random, either.

No, I can't demonstrate day 1 scumreading is X% accurate. That number isn't even important. What matters is that it's accurate enough for my plan to be better than random. It's impossible to verify this claim with evidence, so why use it at all?

I'm making the assumption that you don't want to say what your scumread is. But fine, I guess I was assuming 2. as well.

Vote: Dylan
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jotheonah

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #156 on: August 31, 2020, 11:16:39 am »

Hi! Sorry I suck. Here now, reading/rereading.

I have no thoughts on the plan/setup talk, I’ll do whatever everyone agrees on. I still think Scola is a fine place to rest my vote. It’s not because he MVPd that other game though, I try to only play the current game, not the last one.

More tomorrow.

Why scola for real (vs RVS)?

It has to do with how he responded to the votes on him. Like he was worried but trying to look not worried. Let me find and quote the part that pinged me.
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jotheonah

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #157 on: August 31, 2020, 11:18:43 am »

Sure, but I want to get better at D1!

I think also, especially on D1, I don't post much on weekends.

Anyway, I was obviously kidding about my self vote, interesting that I managed to draw two votes...

Unvote

I guess it was this one. After ignoring my vote completely, when cayvie votes for him it's sort of this meek 'haha guyz I was kidding. how bout those votes'

idk
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MiX

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #158 on: August 31, 2020, 11:21:56 am »

Sure, but I want to get better at D1!

I think also, especially on D1, I don't post much on weekends.

Anyway, I was obviously kidding about my self vote, interesting that I managed to draw two votes...

Unvote

I guess it was this one. After ignoring my vote completely, when cayvie votes for him it's sort of this meek 'haha guyz I was kidding. how bout those votes'

idk

What other reaction did you expect from scola?
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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #159 on: August 31, 2020, 12:21:30 pm »

Well either of the other directions -- actually not being worried or being openly worried about the votes on him. That post just read as a calculated amount of worried. It's a day one gut read, not an ironclad case. I'm just explaining because EFHW asked.
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cayvie

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #160 on: August 31, 2020, 01:05:36 pm »

if d1 scumreading means anything, i fairly confidently don't think EFHW is a carrier this game. and i have a fairly accurate record of catching her as scum.
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scolapasta

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #161 on: August 31, 2020, 01:20:11 pm »

Well either of the other directions -- actually not being worried or being openly worried about the votes on him. That post just read as a calculated amount of worried. It's a day one gut read, not an ironclad case. I'm just explaining because EFHW asked.

This is so weak as to be suspicious. Voting for me was clearly as a joke due to last game. I don't really think anyone who's town would actually think my self vote for myself being anything but NAI. So if that's the only reason you're voting for me, yeah, that's a little scummy.

Still planning on finding time to think of suggested plan. Generally, need to decide if I like the idea. If it's good, then it seems to me that scum is in a bad spot, and needs to find ways to discredit the plan (e.g. swowl). If it's bad, well, then it could be scum looking to suggest something that sounds useful, but doesn't actually help, i.e. could have equal chance to help / hinder based on if A,B,C are scum.
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cayvie

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #162 on: August 31, 2020, 01:26:17 pm »

Well either of the other directions -- actually not being worried or being openly worried about the votes on him. That post just read as a calculated amount of worried. It's a day one gut read, not an ironclad case. I'm just explaining because EFHW asked.

This is so weak as to be suspicious. Voting for me was clearly as a joke due to last game. I don't really think anyone who's town would actually think my self vote for myself being anything but NAI. So if that's the only reason you're voting for me, yeah, that's a little scummy.

Still planning on finding time to think of suggested plan. Generally, need to decide if I like the idea. If it's good, then it seems to me that scum is in a bad spot, and needs to find ways to discredit the plan (e.g. swowl). If it's bad, well, then it could be scum looking to suggest something that sounds useful, but doesn't actually help, i.e. could have equal chance to help / hinder based on if A,B,C are scum.

hey pasta! what are your reads on folks rn?
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scolapasta

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #163 on: August 31, 2020, 01:54:51 pm »

Probably town reading you the most, then MiX, maybe scum to joth and WFHW and swow?. but that's if I don't decide the plans are flawed.

Not sure why, but I wonder if a plan where instead of 1 cycle, we have 3 small cycles:
A targets B targets C targets A
D targets E targets F targets D
G targets H targets I targets G

(and whichever group gets the exile, simplifies to a 2 person cycle)

Possible not different at all, but my gut seems to think there might be something there.

Also, sad, no one commented on the Spies Like Us video - there's even 9 total "doctors", with two who are not actually doctors!
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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #164 on: August 31, 2020, 01:56:19 pm »

I did think the video was very funny.
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MiX

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #165 on: August 31, 2020, 02:00:02 pm »

Probably town reading you the most, then MiX, maybe scum to joth and WFHW and swow?. but that's if I don't decide the plans are flawed.

Not sure why, but I wonder if a plan where instead of 1 cycle, we have 3 small cycles:
A targets B targets C targets A
D targets E targets F targets D
G targets H targets I targets G

(and whichever group gets the exile, simplifies to a 2 person cycle)

Possible not different at all, but my gut seems to think there might be something there.

Also, sad, no one commented on the Spies Like Us video - there's even 9 total "doctors", with two who are not actually doctors!

2 people cycles are weird. We definitely don't want scum to pick each other, then we just vig a bunch of town. Otherwise, there's probably nothing wrong with 3 triangles.

I did think the video was very funny.

Can confirm, it was indeed funny.
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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #166 on: August 31, 2020, 02:15:17 pm »

I enjoy analyzing night actions once we have info, but I don't enjoy this plan stuff. My default positioning is that any plan is bad because it's manipulatable by scum. At the same time, everyone just doctoring their town reads, or their scum reads, seems bad also. And not using our powers at all also seems bad. So I guess I'm down to try a plan.
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Swowl

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #167 on: August 31, 2020, 02:43:27 pm »

The triangle has merit. However it has the same potential flaw the chain has. Only worse should it end up happening.
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

cayvie

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #168 on: August 31, 2020, 02:58:52 pm »

The triangle has merit. However it has the same potential flaw the chain has. Only worse should it end up happening.

does the chain have any flaw that random targeting doesn't?
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Swowl

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #169 on: August 31, 2020, 03:33:09 pm »

The triangle has merit. However it has the same potential flaw the chain has. Only worse should it end up happening.

does the chain have any flaw that random targeting doesn't?

Yes. Or technically yes. But that thing is the thing i am talking about
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #170 on: August 31, 2020, 03:49:52 pm »

The triangle has merit. However it has the same potential flaw the chain has. Only worse should it end up happening.

does the chain have any flaw that random targeting doesn't?

Yes. Or technically yes. But that thing is the thing i am talking about

What's the reason for not revealing the flaw?
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cayvie

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #171 on: August 31, 2020, 04:09:39 pm »

ok im feelin pretty good about swowl too.
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cayvie

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #172 on: August 31, 2020, 04:11:33 pm »

Probably town reading you the most, then MiX, maybe scum to joth and WFHW and swow?. but that's if I don't decide the plans are flawed.

can you talk a little more about how you scumread those 3 people? joth, EFHW, and especially swowl?

also about how your opinion on the trustworthiness of the plans will affect your reads on different players
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Swowl

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #173 on: August 31, 2020, 04:12:45 pm »

The triangle has merit. However it has the same potential flaw the chain has. Only worse should it end up happening.

does the chain have any flaw that random targeting doesn't?

Yes. Or technically yes. But that thing is the thing i am talking about

What's the reason for not revealing the flaw?

well... you have looked at it.
Mix has looked at it.
Others have looked at it.

I see it. Not claiming to be better at the maths (because I 100% am not), but no one has brought it up. So, I don't think it is a reach to say that skum at least might miss it. Kinda doubtful I suppose, it isn't exactly "super secret" or anything. I just think that revealing tomorrow (after the plan) would be best. Even if they NK me, I have faith ya'll will get there without me telling you anyways.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #174 on: August 31, 2020, 04:23:18 pm »

i would say that i think any flaw in the chain is balanced out by the benefit of: the only kills that carriers know to be safe are ones that they are assigned to in the chain. so either carriers risk outing one of their own, or risk having the kill blocked.
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18:28 MEASURE YOUR LIFE IN LOVE: you shouldve done the decent thing and resign rather than go on being that lucky all the time

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