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Author Topic: M131: Quarantine Mafia (Game Over)  (Read 41631 times)

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jotheonah

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #125 on: August 29, 2020, 11:45:23 pm »

Hi! Sorry I suck. Here now, reading/rereading.

I have no thoughts on the plan/setup talk, I’ll do whatever everyone agrees on. I still think Scola is a fine place to rest my vote. It’s not because he MVPd that other game though, I try to only play the current game, not the last one.

More tomorrow.
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cayvie

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #126 on: August 29, 2020, 11:47:24 pm »

I'm spending too much time on the puzzle aspect of things.

prod: joth.

@MiX, why did you prod Awaclus and not joth?

presumably because joth had at least posted in RVS, unlike Awaclus
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18:28 MEASURE YOUR LIFE IN LOVE: you shouldve done the decent thing and resign rather than go on being that lucky all the time

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EFHW

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #127 on: August 29, 2020, 11:47:35 pm »

Hey. I am taking a half day at work today, so I'll be able to mafia a lot in an hour or two.

in the meantime,

Vote: scolapasta

He's uniquely positioned to know whether or not he's scum and he appears to think that he is based on his use of his vote. So I'm happy to sheep him.

Whoops, missed this. MiX made prod request before joth was eligible. Guess he found something more fun to do with his time off. scola vote is certainly well reasoned. RVS, but logical.

PPE: a wild joth appears!
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EFHW

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #128 on: August 30, 2020, 12:00:59 am »

Hi! Sorry I suck. Here now, reading/rereading.

I have no thoughts on the plan/setup talk, I’ll do whatever everyone agrees on. I still think Scola is a fine place to rest my vote. It’s not because he MVPd that other game though, I try to only play the current game, not the last one.

More tomorrow.

Why scola for real (vs RVS)?
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cayvie

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #129 on: August 30, 2020, 12:04:31 am »

first blush reads

town: MiX
townie-ish: dylan32, EFHW, Swowl, jotheonah
suspicious: scola, straw
carriers: ??

post pls: Awaclus
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18:28 MEASURE YOUR LIFE IN LOVE: you shouldve done the decent thing and resign rather than go on being that lucky all the time

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Awaclus

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #130 on: August 30, 2020, 03:53:46 am »

Sorry, I had refresher training. Vote: EFHW
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MiX

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #131 on: August 30, 2020, 05:44:47 am »

you know what mix... ignore me. in my scenario with the three players following the flipped dead town doctors all being alive still... I see my error. we would know that those 3 players were some variation of non-killing doctors... so then based off that we know they would have to be some combo of  Doc, Naive Doc, Paranoid Doc, and/or Weak Doc. That would leave the only renaming docs possible CPR, Quack, and ofc the 1/4 that it wasn't of the 3 flips... and the nurse.

Now one of them would of assumedly been mis lynched today. but still those would be the combos. So the killing roles would in fact know they were killing roles and the proc roles would know they were proc roles.

That makes more sense. Got it. I am in for this plan.

I'm not sure I understand what you're saying, but you're basically right. Some deaths happen, some things are learned, I think in the 3/2 alive D2 scenario we almost always catch scum, and then we still have at least 1 vig alive.

I'd need to do some examples to see if there's any problems, but for me it's the standard way of dealing with this setup.

What would be the plan if we successfully binked skum Day 1? Would we still carry out the plan?

The plan would definitely be carried out, the information we get is much better when there's only 1 person that can lie and NK (for the JK).

I'm spending too much time on the puzzle aspect of things.

prod: joth.

@MiX, why did you prod Awaclus and not joth?

presumably because joth had at least posted in RVS, unlike Awaclus

Yes, this, I don't know why you prodded joth, EFHW.
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EFHW

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #132 on: August 30, 2020, 09:41:10 am »

I said before, I missed his entry post. Or are you joking because of my question to you?
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EFHW

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #133 on: August 30, 2020, 09:44:09 am »

I had a whole MiX-Awaclus partner speculation  going. Or maybe MiX-joth.
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cayvie

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #134 on: August 30, 2020, 09:45:56 am »

Sorry, I had refresher training. Vote: EFHW

what is refresher training?
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18:28 MEASURE YOUR LIFE IN LOVE: you shouldve done the decent thing and resign rather than go on being that lucky all the time

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MiX

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #135 on: August 30, 2020, 10:13:56 am »

I said before, I missed his entry post. Or are you joking because of my question to you?

Hmm...I guess this makes sense.

I had a whole MiX-Awaclus partner speculation  going. Or maybe MiX-joth.

Which was it then?

Dylan can you come back, I miss you.
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cayvie

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #136 on: August 30, 2020, 10:19:27 am »

what was your plan for deciding the chain order, mix? or is it still too early to say
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18:28 MEASURE YOUR LIFE IN LOVE: you shouldve done the decent thing and resign rather than go on being that lucky all the time

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MiX

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #137 on: August 30, 2020, 10:36:40 am »

what was your plan for deciding the chain order, mix? or is it still too early to say

I'd give it 1 more day, it's reads-based so it's important everyone has a top scumread and a top townread.

Do you still think scola's scum?
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MiX

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #138 on: August 30, 2020, 10:37:03 am »

first blush reads

town: MiX
townie-ish: dylan32, EFHW, Swowl, jotheonah
suspicious: scola, straw
carriers: ??

post pls: Awaclus

Oh right you did this, ignore me.
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Swowl

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #139 on: August 30, 2020, 01:07:21 pm »

you know what mix... ignore me. in my scenario with the three players following the flipped dead town doctors all being alive still... I see my error. we would know that those 3 players were some variation of non-killing doctors... so then based off that we know they would have to be some combo of  Doc, Naive Doc, Paranoid Doc, and/or Weak Doc. That would leave the only renaming docs possible CPR, Quack, and ofc the 1/4 that it wasn't of the 3 flips... and the nurse.

Now one of them would of assumedly been mis lynched today. but still those would be the combos. So the killing roles would in fact know they were killing roles and the proc roles would know they were proc roles.

That makes more sense. Got it. I am in for this plan.

I'm not sure I understand what you're saying, but you're basically right. Some deaths happen, some things are learned, I think in the 3/2 alive D2 scenario we almost always catch scum, and then we still have at least 1 vig alive.

I'd need to do some examples to see if there's any problems, but for me it's the standard way of dealing with this setup.

What would be the plan if we successfully binked skum Day 1? Would we still carry out the plan?

The plan would definitely be carried out, the information we get is much better when there's only 1 person that can lie and NK (for the JK).


Yeah, I rando generated roles and used the sign up order and I mean it is only one run through, but we found skum A, identified an IC (the JK), and narrowed skum B down to 1/3 (where the other 2 were the vigs). Which would be a fantastic run out obviously.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

MiX

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #140 on: August 30, 2020, 01:17:35 pm »

In that setup, the vigs can triangulate shooting each other, so scum always dies.

See? The plan's great in theory. It can just win us the game.
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Dylan32

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #141 on: August 30, 2020, 01:48:21 pm »

I said before, I missed his entry post. Or are you joking because of my question to you?

Hmm...I guess this makes sense.

I had a whole MiX-Awaclus partner speculation  going. Or maybe MiX-joth.

Which was it then?

Dylan can you come back, I miss you.

Sorry man. Sister had surgery this weekend, so I’ve been pretty preoccupied. It feels good to be missed though lol. I’ll spend more time thinking and rereading here in a bit and get back to you. Not dodging your earlier question, just haven’t been in the headspace to answer for a bit.
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Forum Mafia Record - Wins: 14 - NM9, M97, RMM41, M99, M102, M104, M119, M126, RMM56, M133, M134, RMM58, RMM59, RMM61, RMM60; Losses 15 - RMM37, M89, M94, M95, M96, M100, RMM47 M109, M110, M120, M127, M129, M131, M132, M136; MVPs: 1 - NM9

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #142 on: August 30, 2020, 03:39:33 pm »

In that setup, the vigs can triangulate shooting each other, so scum always dies.

See? The plan's great in theory. It can just win us the game.

Yeah i mean that was my point. At least in that set up we win every time.
Tried thinking about it in terms of “bad outcomes”, of which there are some. But overall it sounds good.
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #143 on: August 30, 2020, 04:46:40 pm »

I said before, I missed his entry post. Or are you joking because of my question to you?

Hmm...I guess this makes sense.

I had a whole MiX-Awaclus partner speculation  going. Or maybe MiX-joth.

Which was it then?

Dylan can you come back, I miss you.

Sorry man. Sister had surgery this weekend, so I’ve been pretty preoccupied. It feels good to be missed though lol. I’ll spend more time thinking and rereading here in a bit and get back to you. Not dodging your earlier question, just haven’t been in the headspace to answer for a bit.

all good hopefully?
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #144 on: August 31, 2020, 01:37:30 am »

So I have nothing better to do, and I have been thinking about the mix plan more. I don't wanna really go into why, in case we do actually do it... but there are def some substantial holes. That being said, IDK if holes is less or greater than random... but I am def more skeptical of it now than I was before.

To be clear, no knocks on MiX for the idea. I just don't have the faith in it that I originally did.
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

MiX

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #145 on: August 31, 2020, 07:10:57 am »

So I have nothing better to do, and I have been thinking about the mix plan more. I don't wanna really go into why, in case we do actually do it... but there are def some substantial holes. That being said, IDK if holes is less or greater than random... but I am def more skeptical of it now than I was before.

To be clear, no knocks on MiX for the idea. I just don't have the faith in it that I originally did.

I can see this, I was doing some theorizing yesterday and in some scenarios you learn very little. Hopefully it's something that can be compounded onto future days of information to learn more.


Okay, now time for the Chain Formation Plan:

Step 1: Pick a consensus town, because we're doing this kinda like popcorn. From what I saw of the thread, I guess I'm the most townread individual here? I'd love Dylan to come back with what he thinks of me, but there's been 2 readlists and I'm top town there, so... I'd nominate cayvie for this if you don't want me to do it.

Step 2: That player picks their scummiest player to be their doc target.

Step 3: The same player picks whoever the player they're targeting is then going to target, which should be their top townread that hasn't been picked yet. This way, if the person picking is A, they would target B, their scumread, and B would target C, which is A's townread, and thus the chain reads A -> B -> C.

Step 4: The player that is the top townread (so, C) repeats steps 2 and 3.

This results in an 8 player chain, as the fourth person picks someone to target, and said target has to doc the first person in the chain. The ninth person, the one left out, replaces whoever's exiled, in case that happens, or places itself in between the 8th and 1st person in the chain, if there's no exile.


Does this make sense? Everyone understand that? I can't explain things very well so this is most likely a mess.
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MiX

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #146 on: August 31, 2020, 07:14:54 am »

To summarize, the chain should look like this:

A -> A's scumread -> A's townread (B) -> B's scumread -> B's townread (C) -> C's scumread -> C's townread (D) -> D's scumread -> A

Which is an 8 person chain, with whoever's left out replacing who's exiled.
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EFHW

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #147 on: August 31, 2020, 08:00:30 am »

I can't say I like this plan. It's a good idea to try to include some scumhunting, but it's only A, B, and C's scumhunting,  and you are proposing yourself for A! I don't have a better plan atm, but I'm not seeing the benefits of this one.
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MiX

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #148 on: August 31, 2020, 08:03:58 am »

I can't say I like this plan. It's a good idea to try to include some scumhunting, but it's only A, B, and C's scumhunting,  and you are proposing yourself for A! I don't have a better plan atm, but I'm not seeing the benefits of this one.

I'd rather not propose myself, but someone needs to start the chain.

Who's your top townread? Who's your top scumread?
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EFHW

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Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
« Reply #149 on: August 31, 2020, 08:10:44 am »

Wait, this plan is equivalent to random. Everyone gets targeted by someone else.  It doesn't matter who targets who.
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