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Author Topic: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (GAME OVER)  (Read 19490 times)

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MiX

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #950 on: August 06, 2020, 08:30:44 am »

If I take a bag with 13 marbles and 3 are red, what are the odds of me pulling at least one red marble out if I grab 3 at the same time is what I'm claiming. If the odds are 58 percent and then I get to look at one of the marbles that I pulled out (which my selection is now stuck in time - I can't swap marbles and all three have been pulled already) and it's not red how does that impact my further chances

"You need to know how many scum are in a set to apply Monty hall" is probably the bit here that I'm missing - I thought I could basically say "there's x chance of scum in this set" and then apply that chance as flips happened but if we have to KNOW the prize is behind one of the doors it's different

Can we not argue probability? How the hell do you catch scum like that? Here's a maximum everyone should learn: "If the probability argument helps you make a decision, it's wrong". You can't use cold hard deduction in mafia, that enough should be obvious, so stop applying logical processes to things. You should instead apply intuitive probabilities to events (like "1 scum's on the joth wagon) and work from there. If you take the literal probability, you just end up with everyone as a null read.

Yeah confirmed I'm a dumb and Monty hall definitely doesn't apply

Unvote

Who were you voting before?
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chairs

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #951 on: August 06, 2020, 08:32:34 am »

I don't know, Galz I think?

He's since shown up a bit though.

Isis

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #952 on: August 06, 2020, 08:37:58 am »

Chairs is acting scummy, enjoying arguments that are easier to play with as scum
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scolapasta

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #953 on: August 06, 2020, 10:32:39 am »

Bad math feels like it should be scummy. Makes me want to vote for chairs.

But I don't think it is actually scummy. Since it's easy to be shown wrong, not actually lead anywhere.

On another note, sorry I haven't been around much the past few days, though I have not lurked like others for the entirety of the game. A tree fell on my car, so been dealing with that / generally unhappy about it. Good news is it looks like it is covered; bad news will take 2.5 weeks (!)

Vote: Dylan

Have a work meeting now, so will add more after, but wanted to get it out there, see what others think.
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Robz888

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #954 on: August 06, 2020, 10:43:52 am »

Bad math feels like it should be scummy. Makes me want to vote for chairs.

But I don't think it is actually scummy. Since it's easy to be shown wrong, not actually lead anywhere.

On another note, sorry I haven't been around much the past few days, though I have not lurked like others for the entirety of the game. A tree fell on my car, so been dealing with that / generally unhappy about it. Good news is it looks like it is covered; bad news will take 2.5 weeks (!)

Vote: Dylan

Have a work meeting now, so will add more after, but wanted to get it out there, see what others think.

Really sorry about your car!

Why Dylan, though?
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Robz888

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #955 on: August 06, 2020, 10:44:31 am »

Have we ever established that math/probability based arguments are more likely to come from scum? I genuinely can't recall.
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faust

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #956 on: August 06, 2020, 10:47:26 am »

Have we ever established that math/probability based arguments are more likely to come from scum? I genuinely can't recall.
I don't know, it seems like establishing that would require some kind of probability based argument and I'm afraid to use them now.
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chairs

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #957 on: August 06, 2020, 10:48:49 am »

Have we ever established that math/probability based arguments are more likely to come from scum? I genuinely can't recall.
I don't know, it seems like establishing that would require some kind of probability based argument and I'm afraid to use them now.

 :D ;D

Robz888

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #958 on: August 06, 2020, 10:53:28 am »

Have we ever established that math/probability based arguments are more likely to come from scum? I genuinely can't recall.
I don't know, it seems like establishing that would require some kind of probability based argument and I'm afraid to use them now.

Make three arguments, we know that one of them has to be right.
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scolapasta

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #959 on: August 06, 2020, 11:00:21 am »

Have we ever established that math/probability based arguments are more likely to come from scum? I genuinely can't recall.
I don't know, it seems like establishing that would require some kind of probability based argument and I'm afraid to use them now.

Make three arguments, we know that one of them has to be right.

 ;D

Yeah, the write more later meant I would explain my vote.
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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #960 on: August 06, 2020, 11:35:53 am »

OK, so my Dylan vote:

I'll admit it's not super strong, but I feel like I have two choices:

MiX / chairs: Like I've said, I'm now leaning more town for Mix, based on D2. I'm. not sure they'll ever be a game where I fully believe anything, but that's where I am for now this game. Similar with chairs, though more null, I guess. I think the bad math was not scummy.

Other: I don't love the galz wagon. I am still fine with Robz vote, but that doesn't seem to be getting any traction. So thought I'd throw out someone new. It comes from the discussion about scum daychat earlier - I believe it was Dylan that started suspecting lurkers, then in a later post, had something about me specifically  - "I didn't even realize he was in this game". And that just seemed off. While I haven't posted much in the past few days (I'll add an image of my poor car at the end of this), I don't fit in the lurker bucket.

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mail-mi

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (Night 0)
« Reply #961 on: August 06, 2020, 12:09:20 pm »

Vote Count 2.3

Isis (1): MiX
Robz888 (1): faust
chairs (3): Swowl, SpaceAnemone, Galzria
Galzria (2): Robz888, Dylan32
MiX (1): Isis
Dylan32 (1): scolapasta
 
Not Voting (2): EFHW, chairs

With 11 alive it takes 6 to exile.

Day 2 lasts until 12:30AM FT on Saturday, August 8th, 2020 - note that this is different than in the opening D2 post. 23.5 hours were added because of faust's subbing in.

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chairs

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #962 on: August 06, 2020, 12:10:27 pm »

Vote: efhw

Dylan32

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #963 on: August 06, 2020, 12:56:32 pm »

OK, so my Dylan vote:

I'll admit it's not super strong, but I feel like I have two choices:

MiX / chairs: Like I've said, I'm now leaning more town for Mix, based on D2. I'm. not sure they'll ever be a game where I fully believe anything, but that's where I am for now this game. Similar with chairs, though more null, I guess. I think the bad math was not scummy.

Other: I don't love the galz wagon. I am still fine with Robz vote, but that doesn't seem to be getting any traction. So thought I'd throw out someone new. It comes from the discussion about scum daychat earlier - I believe it was Dylan that started suspecting lurkers, then in a later post, had something about me specifically  - "I didn't even realize he was in this game". And that just seemed off. While I haven't posted much in the past few days (I'll add an image of my poor car at the end of this), I don't fit in the lurker bucket.



You might have been posting some, but I didn't (actually still don't aside from your vote on me) remember a single game related stance or post of yours. Everyone else has at the very least one conversation or interaction that I remember, but not so with you.  Not saying you haven't had any, just that they haven't stuck in my memory and as such you've been almost entirely off my radar. Obviously, this means I need to reread you.
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Dylan32

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #964 on: August 06, 2020, 12:57:00 pm »

Also, sorry about the car. That sucks, but glad it's being taken care of.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #965 on: August 06, 2020, 12:59:17 pm »

Oh no, I'm missing maths stuff! Sorry for being absent today.. am currently swamped by work, and I've got evening plans that mean I won't be on properly till late.
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Dylan32

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #966 on: August 06, 2020, 01:20:15 pm »

Ok, move scola to a middling town read. Forgot about the T-7 second hammer.  I think it's fairly likely scum just wouldn't hammer there if they weren't already on wagon once it got that close. Aside from that, I think he's been pretty similar to town!scola from a previous game I was in with him.
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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #967 on: August 06, 2020, 06:11:33 pm »

Well that maths was anticlimactic :-( I agree with the 58% chance thing, assuming the three people you pick D1 are drawn at random. Also agree it's nothing Monty Hall-esque.

I do feel like the significant thing about the D1 wagons is just how resistant they were to going the distance.
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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #968 on: August 06, 2020, 06:19:28 pm »

Have we ever established that math/probability based arguments are more likely to come from scum? I genuinely can't recall.

That's got to be highly player-dependent, surely? Maybe for some people it's indicative. I think I'd get less mathsy as scum, rather than more mathsy, but I can't really remember. I did once feel super-confident in having caught faust as scum through a logic-and-wagons argument, and the fact that he was arguing against my case using "logic" that didn't totally make sense. Not making logical mathematical sense is the thing I consider a scumtell for faust. (He checks out fine so far this game, though he's not really been here long).
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #969 on: August 06, 2020, 06:20:59 pm »

(I'll add an image of my poor car at the end of this)

Yipes, that looks really scary. Glad you're okay modulo all the car hassle.
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EFHW

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #970 on: August 06, 2020, 09:38:33 pm »

Vote: efhw

Yeah, I'm sorry. My real life just got a lot more full of politics, making me have less energy for mafia.
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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #971 on: August 06, 2020, 09:41:16 pm »

Looks like I mostly missed math which is too dense (or I am too dense) for the moment.

vote: Galzria. I'm ridiculously tired right now, though. Might change my mind tomorrow.
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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #972 on: August 06, 2020, 10:38:19 pm »

I just looked at the count - we have two people at 3 votes and a bunch of 1's and not a lot of posting.

I still don't like the idea of exiling lurkers just for lurking, but I don't know anymore. Seems like it'd be a good move for scum right now to do that, since nothing's really happening.

Between the two wagons, if I need to move, still prefer chairs to galz. Anyone willing to help me understand the case on galz? Anyone interested in joining me on Dylan?
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Isis

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #973 on: August 07, 2020, 12:53:58 am »

I kind of prefer chairs to galzria as a guttake but I have no interest in touching Dylan this phase
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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #974 on: August 07, 2020, 06:21:57 am »

Obviously I prefer Chairs to Galz.

What even is the case on Dylan?
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