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Author Topic: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (GAME OVER)  (Read 24668 times)

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Isis

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #925 on: August 05, 2020, 03:36:36 pm »

Also Isis.

Here's a separate question. How come Galz and Isis were willing to exile MiX the first time he was at X-1 but not the second? Reverse question for Chairs.
I don't remember but I feel I have a pretty easy guess that the reason is that my appreciation for mobile wagons and creating readable whimsical shifts was a large enough "tiebreak" against whoever I was voting for


That said I didn't know and/or forgot that MiX hardclaimed VT and am a big fan of mechanically correct play so Vote: MiX

I think it's quite a bit more likely to flip red than chairs but if you disagree digame todo
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MiX

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #926 on: August 05, 2020, 03:43:29 pm »

Also Isis.

Here's a separate question. How come Galz and Isis were willing to exile MiX the first time he was at X-1 but not the second? Reverse question for Chairs.
I don't remember but I feel I have a pretty easy guess that the reason is that my appreciation for mobile wagons and creating readable whimsical shifts was a large enough "tiebreak" against whoever I was voting for


That said I didn't know and/or forgot that MiX hardclaimed VT and am a big fan of mechanically correct play so Vote: MiX

I think it's quite a bit more likely to flip red than chairs but if you disagree digame todo

Given everything else you've done this game, I find it hard to believe you think you need to vote for me now.

What do you think of Galz and Dylan?
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Dylan32

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #927 on: August 05, 2020, 03:45:35 pm »

To answer Galz's question for chairs but really me: No. I've been pretty clear MiX is my biggest scum read, but as people have made it abundantly clear (foolishly so imho), everyone (seemingly except faust) seems to want to look elsewhere. You were as good a target for a wagon as any of my non!MiX reads.

What's your current read on me, chairs, galz, Isis, and what's your biggest townread?

Back on my PC (feels great), will do VCAs and a reread with it, surely D1 can be solved, and I don't think Galzria is the answer.

Scum: Mix
null to scum: galz, chairs, Swowl (as a result of recent interactions)
null: Isis, EFHW, scola (legitimately had to look at the vote count to remember they are here)
null to town: Robz < faust (towny start to being here, willing to accept that LL was inactive because IRL busy not scummy) < Space.

The Space townread was a very early gut read. I'm probably going to reread them at some point today to reevaluate that. Robz has been getting townier. Swowl trending down.

ppe a couple
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Forum Mafia Record - Wins: 9 - NM9, M97, RMM41, M99, M102, M104, M119, M126, RMM56; Losses 11 - RMM37, M89, M94, M95, M96, M100, RMM47 M109, M110, M120, M127; MVPs: 1 - NM9

MiX

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #928 on: August 05, 2020, 03:49:17 pm »

To answer Galz's question for chairs but really me: No. I've been pretty clear MiX is my biggest scum read, but as people have made it abundantly clear (foolishly so imho), everyone (seemingly except faust) seems to want to look elsewhere. You were as good a target for a wagon as any of my non!MiX reads.

What's your current read on me, chairs, galz, Isis, and what's your biggest townread?

Back on my PC (feels great), will do VCAs and a reread with it, surely D1 can be solved, and I don't think Galzria is the answer.

What do you mean, D1 can be solved?

I'll get back to you when the VCA's done.

To answer Galz's question for chairs but really me: No. I've been pretty clear MiX is my biggest scum read, but as people have made it abundantly clear (foolishly so imho), everyone (seemingly except faust) seems to want to look elsewhere. You were as good a target for a wagon as any of my non!MiX reads.

What's your current read on me, chairs, galz, Isis, and what's your biggest townread?

Back on my PC (feels great), will do VCAs and a reread with it, surely D1 can be solved, and I don't think Galzria is the answer.

Scum: Mix
null to scum: galz, chairs, Swowl (as a result of recent interactions)
null: Isis, EFHW, scola (legitimately had to look at the vote count to remember they are here)
null to town: Robz < faust (towny start to being here, willing to accept that LL was inactive because IRL busy not scummy) < Space.

The Space townread was a very early gut read. I'm probably going to reread them at some point today to reevaluate that. Robz has been getting townier. Swowl trending down.

ppe a couple

Still? Sigh... Why is your readlist upside down? And why do you only have like, 2 townreads?
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Dylan32

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #929 on: August 05, 2020, 04:21:25 pm »

To answer Galz's question for chairs but really me: No. I've been pretty clear MiX is my biggest scum read, but as people have made it abundantly clear (foolishly so imho), everyone (seemingly except faust) seems to want to look elsewhere. You were as good a target for a wagon as any of my non!MiX reads.

What's your current read on me, chairs, galz, Isis, and what's your biggest townread?

Back on my PC (feels great), will do VCAs and a reread with it, surely D1 can be solved, and I don't think Galzria is the answer.

What do you mean, D1 can be solved?

I'll get back to you when the VCA's done.

To answer Galz's question for chairs but really me: No. I've been pretty clear MiX is my biggest scum read, but as people have made it abundantly clear (foolishly so imho), everyone (seemingly except faust) seems to want to look elsewhere. You were as good a target for a wagon as any of my non!MiX reads.

What's your current read on me, chairs, galz, Isis, and what's your biggest townread?

Back on my PC (feels great), will do VCAs and a reread with it, surely D1 can be solved, and I don't think Galzria is the answer.

Scum: Mix
null to scum: galz, chairs, Swowl (as a result of recent interactions)
null: Isis, EFHW, scola (legitimately had to look at the vote count to remember they are here)
null to town: Robz < faust (towny start to being here, willing to accept that LL was inactive because IRL busy not scummy) < Space.

The Space townread was a very early gut read. I'm probably going to reread them at some point today to reevaluate that. Robz has been getting townier. Swowl trending down.

ppe a couple

Still? Sigh... Why is your readlist upside down? And why do you only have like, 2 townreads?

1. I still think your D1 is still the scummiest thing that's happened. You've done nothing that changes that impression. I don't think it's particularly like that all 3 wagons were on town.
2. No you.
3. Half of the people in this game have barely done anything, let alone anything that gives a strong read one way or the other, hence the multitude of null and null-to-whatever reads.
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Forum Mafia Record - Wins: 9 - NM9, M97, RMM41, M99, M102, M104, M119, M126, RMM56; Losses 11 - RMM37, M89, M94, M95, M96, M100, RMM47 M109, M110, M120, M127; MVPs: 1 - NM9

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #930 on: August 05, 2020, 06:05:09 pm »

also the whole bit where I was skummy for going on VCA which would make it seeeeeem like you think Galz is towny.

Now, reads change, and that is fair. But then that is why I asked the question. What changed.

Actually yeah lets go with that - what has changed your read specifically to make galz skum from the time that he was not skum when you started the wagon on me Day 1?

My god, that was a million years ago. What changed is that he's now lurking the way he did in the very last game as scum. And I didn't think he was "not scum" before, I just didn't have a particular scum read on him. It's Galz who advanced the narrative that I was buddying Galz, a town, read... wasn't actually reflective of reality.

And anyway, who cares? You are being really stubborn about this.
Yep, who cares about holding people accountable for what they said before? What a silly concept.

Swowl is holding me accountable for a position I didn't take, his real problem with me is I dared to propose him as an alternative wagon yesterday.

I am holding you accountable for the culmination of interconnected reasons that I listed. And if I was being "stubborn" I would be voting for you. Suspicious of you? Sure. But not enough to come at you given how things are trending right now.
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Town:  12 wins, 9 losses (1 MVP)
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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #931 on: August 05, 2020, 07:25:34 pm »

I re-read Galz, and while it hasn't exactly solved the game for me, I do think he's on the town side of null at least. I may even have read him with a slight scum bias when I was considering his three-person wagon and wondering what everyone else was seeing.

My comments on his early interactions were that they seemed carefee enough, and that he was engaging with a lot of different people. At #311 I noted that he made another post about fluff posting, which I think took him over the amount of time I'd spent being frustrated at it, and yet I seem to be the one Robz is giving scumpoints to for that.
There was a whole thing with Galz accusing Robz of scummy buddying, and other people playing the is-it-town-v-town game. I foudn the weirdest bit of that the post where he emphasized that their back-and-forth is all tongue-in-cheek, while also acknowledging that it doesn't read that way to the rest of us.
I questioned whether he was over-explaining his joining of the Joth wagon at #491. He was only pushing Joth to X-2 for the first time.
He moved to a phase of pushing MiX hard over the scummy MiX-Chairs dynamic, voting MiX for a while, then changing his tune and sitting back on Joth's wagon.
By the EoD, he was promoting a town!MiX and town!Chairs scenario, and was pushing a scum!Robz and scum!Joth theory.

Given that Joth flipped town, and the Robz-Joth thing was meant to involve a partner element, I would have expected his scumread on Robz to tail off a bit into D2, but now he's saying Robz is still up there, along with Chairs again now and Isis.

I find Robz scummy most of the time by default, and I agree that Chairs is where votes should be going. So all in all, there's a bunch of stuff that I don't quite get exactly about Galz's play, but I think his ideas are more aligned with mine than not. I'm not super-interested in voting him today, especially if Chairs is still on the table.
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Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

chairs

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #932 on: August 05, 2020, 09:09:15 pm »

But I'm not on the table. I'm under it, neatly put away.

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #933 on: August 05, 2020, 10:13:04 pm »

But I'm not on the table. I'm under it, neatly put away.

Letís unbox you. Vote: Chairs

I donít believe that all three wagons were on Town. I feel like thereís been a decent trend recently where we either exile scum D1, or nearly do. It feels like rarely are we absolutely, completely off. And given that we had 3 very viable wagons, the struggle to make any of them happen just doesnít sit right.

I think Chairs is scum before MiX. If you disagree strongly (Dylan), convince me otherwise.

I also still read Robz as scum. Thereís little that heís posted that Iíve felt comes from a townie place. Itís a wagon I could get behind.

EFHW, Scola & Isis I need/want to iso/reread. Everyone else Iím keeping my opinions about to myself right now.
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Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

chairs

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #934 on: August 06, 2020, 12:25:25 am »

You... box your chairs? I just tuck them under the table when I'm not sitting in them.

I personally think the law of averages favors the D1 wagons being all Town (but I'm also coming at it knowing that 2/3 are definitely Town and this I only have to decide if MiX is more likely Town or Mafia).

I feel like looping back to this line of thought is pretty scummy though.

faust

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #935 on: August 06, 2020, 03:09:46 am »

I personally think the law of averages favors the D1 wagons being all Town
I have no idea what this means.
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chairs

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #936 on: August 06, 2020, 07:34:41 am »

I personally think the law of averages favors the D1 wagons being all Town
I have no idea what this means.

If you pick three random people from the game, the likelihood of picking one scum is fairly low on D1. We have 13 this game? So it's 3/13 plus 3/12 plus 3/11 chance that at least one is scum... wait I'm wrong, I just did the math and it's like 75 percent chance we did find one scum in a triple pile. We know Joth was Town, and I know I am Town, and the monte hall problem means MiX has a 75 percent chance or so of being scum then.

Vote: mix

Isis

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #937 on: August 06, 2020, 07:39:28 am »

Dylan is obvtown
I don't know what Galzria is
I want to flip something
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faust

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #938 on: August 06, 2020, 07:39:48 am »

I personally think the law of averages favors the D1 wagons being all Town
I have no idea what this means.

If you pick three random people from the game, the likelihood of picking one scum is fairly low on D1. We have 13 this game? So it's 3/13 plus 3/12 plus 3/11 chance that at least one is scum... wait I'm wrong, I just did the math and it's like 75 percent chance we did find one scum in a triple pile. We know Joth was Town, and I know I am Town, and the monte hall problem means MiX has a 75 percent chance or so of being scum then.

Vote: mix
I don't know how you think Monty Hall enters into this problem, but it doesn't.
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chairs

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #939 on: August 06, 2020, 07:39:58 am »

My math is crazy wrong but I don't know the right formula, googling now

chairs

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #940 on: August 06, 2020, 07:44:22 am »

I personally think the law of averages favors the D1 wagons being all Town
I have no idea what this means.

If you pick three random people from the game, the likelihood of picking one scum is fairly low on D1. We have 13 this game? So it's 3/13 plus 3/12 plus 3/11 chance that at least one is scum... wait I'm wrong, I just did the math and it's like 75 percent chance we did find one scum in a triple pile. We know Joth was Town, and I know I am Town, and the monte hall problem means MiX has a 75 percent chance or so of being scum then.

Vote: mix
I don't know how you think Monty Hall enters into this problem, but it doesn't.

So I think my math is wrong but that we have something like a 60 percent chance for a "hit" on scum over three "pulls". Since pull one (joth) is now confirmed Town, that should spread that chance over the two of mix and me, and since -I- know I'm Town that would take my probability of being scum and transfer to mix. I don't see how that isn't relevant to this situation but I am at least providing my thoughts even if I'm doing something wrong - better to let someone correct me than to keep the ideas to myself.

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #941 on: August 06, 2020, 07:57:31 am »

I personally think the law of averages favors the D1 wagons being all Town
I have no idea what this means.

If you pick three random people from the game, the likelihood of picking one scum is fairly low on D1. We have 13 this game? So it's 3/13 plus 3/12 plus 3/11 chance that at least one is scum... wait I'm wrong, I just did the math and it's like 75 percent chance we did find one scum in a triple pile. We know Joth was Town, and I know I am Town, and the monte hall problem means MiX has a 75 percent chance or so of being scum then.

Vote: mix
I don't know how you think Monty Hall enters into this problem, but it doesn't.

So I think my math is wrong but that we have something like a 60 percent chance for a "hit" on scum over three "pulls". Since pull one (joth) is now confirmed Town, that should spread that chance over the two of mix and me, and since -I- know I'm Town that would take my probability of being scum and transfer to mix. I don't see how that isn't relevant to this situation but I am at least providing my thoughts even if I'm doing something wrong - better to let someone correct me than to keep the ideas to myself.
Intiuitively: Assuming the choice of 3 wagons on D1 was random (which is your assumption for this), it makes no sense that whether or not the RNG picked MiX has any bearing on his chance to be scum.

More rigorously: We start by picking a subset of 3 random players. According to the information available at the time, each has a 3/13 chance of being scum, and in total that adds up to a like 60% chance of the whole group containing a scum. Now one of those players flips town. This changes the information we have and excludes some scenarios, like all 3 being scum. So based on that new knowledge, the chance that there is a scum among the rest is actually just the chance that 2 random people contain a scum (adjusted for the fact that 1 town has already flipped). You cannot take that new information - the town flip - and apply it to chances calculated with outdated information.

Monty Hall works because we know for sure that one of the doors has the price. But this is not the case in our scenario.
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chairs

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #942 on: August 06, 2020, 08:05:54 am »

FWIW I think the correct math is to figure out the chance or picking 3 Town which is 10/13 times 9/12 times 8/11. Wolfram alpha says that is roughly 42 percent, this 58 percent of the time we picked at least one scum. We initially assign the scum chance equally to all three wagons (well, I obviously would split it between joth and mix but I'm looking at it from an outside observation for a moment here) and then joth flips town. This doesn't make us less likely to have picked at least one scum wagon - it just transfers the probability to mix and myself (hence Monty hall). Now that means each of mix and myself are combined a 58 percent scum chance for at least one of us to be scum, and since I know I'm Town that throws my personal view as mix has better than even odds to flip scum.

For what it's worth, the current odds that any given person is scum for a Town person is 30 percent (3 in 10) and if you assume mix and I are in fact both town then for a non us town member the remaining people have a whopping 3 in 8 chance. The big problem is that wagons aren't actually random draws so there's only so much we can do with probability here

chairs

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #943 on: August 06, 2020, 08:06:34 am »

I suppose you might be right about Monty hall - pulling up khan on it later.

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #944 on: August 06, 2020, 08:12:22 am »

This doesn't make us less likely to have picked at least one scum wagon
Yes it does.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

faust

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #945 on: August 06, 2020, 08:15:02 am »

If I take 3 dice, roll the first one and it's not a 6, does that make it more likely that one of the remaining 2 will roll a 6? That seems to be what you are claiming here.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

MiX

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #946 on: August 06, 2020, 08:25:23 am »

I personally think the law of averages favors the D1 wagons being all Town
I have no idea what this means.

If you pick three random people from the game, the likelihood of picking one scum is fairly low on D1. We have 13 this game? So it's 3/13 plus 3/12 plus 3/11 chance that at least one is scum... wait I'm wrong, I just did the math and it's like 75 percent chance we did find one scum in a triple pile. We know Joth was Town, and I know I am Town, and the monte hall problem means MiX has a 75 percent chance or so of being scum then.

Vote: mix

Me and my top 2 (well, not top 2, but 2 out of my top 3) scumreads have better odds of having scum than not. Although taking away Isis from this does plummet the chances from around 80% to something above 50%.

Also, lol, that math is gloriously wrong. Everyone would have a 75% chance of being scum that way. You need to know how many scum are in a set to apply Monty Hall, and clearly if you're town it would give a 100% chance of me being scum.

What's important here is that chairs moved his vote over this """logic""" and that's just making me scratch my head intensively. Is that even scummy?
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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #947 on: August 06, 2020, 08:26:27 am »

If I take a bag with 13 marbles and 3 are red, what are the odds of me pulling at least one red marble out if I grab 3 at the same time is what I'm claiming. If the odds are 58 percent and then I get to look at one of the marbles that I pulled out (which my selection is now stuck in time - I can't swap marbles and all three have been pulled already) and it's not red how does that impact my further chances

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #948 on: August 06, 2020, 08:28:20 am »

I personally think the law of averages favors the D1 wagons being all Town
I have no idea what this means.

If you pick three random people from the game, the likelihood of picking one scum is fairly low on D1. We have 13 this game? So it's 3/13 plus 3/12 plus 3/11 chance that at least one is scum... wait I'm wrong, I just did the math and it's like 75 percent chance we did find one scum in a triple pile. We know Joth was Town, and I know I am Town, and the monte hall problem means MiX has a 75 percent chance or so of being scum then.

Vote: mix

Me and my top 2 (well, not top 2, but 2 out of my top 3) scumreads have better odds of having scum than not. Although taking away Isis from this does plummet the chances from around 80% to something above 50%.

Also, lol, that math is gloriously wrong. Everyone would have a 75% chance of being scum that way. You need to know how many scum are in a set to apply Monty Hall, and clearly if you're town it would give a 100% chance of me being scum.

What's important here is that chairs moved his vote over this """logic""" and that's just making me scratch my head intensively. Is that even scummy?

"You need to know how many scum are in a set to apply Monty hall" is probably the bit here that I'm missing - I thought I could basically say "there's x chance of scum in this set" and then apply that chance as flips happened but if we have to KNOW the prize is behind one of the doors it's different

chairs

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Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« Reply #949 on: August 06, 2020, 08:30:22 am »

Yeah confirmed I'm a dumb and Monty hall definitely doesn't apply

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