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Author Topic: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Game over)  (Read 94531 times)

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yuma

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #675 on: June 07, 2020, 01:44:03 am »

Ok. You do have scumreads on Dylan... see post below which I have a question about.

In reading back over the two posts where you talk about the case on Dylan you seem to be framing it as your case on e was better than the case on Dylan. Which, still isn't great, but isn't as deflective as I thought.

Granted, bussing D1 can happen, but it is not something that scum want to do. I think it was ashersky who mentioned once that they straight up don't bus scum D1 a while back. I am not hard line like that, but pretty close

If you recall, I also looked off wagon. I think there's one scum in [calamitas, 2.7, yuma] and one scum in [dylan, swowl, space]. Again, I can be convinced to vote elsewhere, but I haven't been yet.

My question here is what you think of swowl now that dylan and space are confirmed town?
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yuma

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #676 on: June 07, 2020, 01:44:23 am »

also unvote
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #677 on: June 07, 2020, 01:55:28 am »

Ok. You do have scumreads on Dylan... see post below which I have a question about.

In reading back over the two posts where you talk about the case on Dylan you seem to be framing it as your case on e was better than the case on Dylan. Which, still isn't great, but isn't as deflective as I thought.

Granted, bussing D1 can happen, but it is not something that scum want to do. I think it was ashersky who mentioned once that they straight up don't bus scum D1 a while back. I am not hard line like that, but pretty close

If you recall, I also looked off wagon. I think there's one scum in [calamitas, 2.7, yuma] and one scum in [dylan, swowl, space]. Again, I can be convinced to vote elsewhere, but I haven't been yet.

My question here is what you think of swowl now that dylan and space are confirmed town?

I posted my thoughts about this earlier, but right now I think swowl is town, because of the off-wagon scum kill. Though I'm starting to doubt that because in scum!swowl's mind, 90% of the time he can still get me mislynched in a 1v1 with him and me. So I'm still leaning town, but probably still willing to lynch if it really comes down to it.
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faust

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #678 on: June 07, 2020, 02:38:00 am »

Vote Count 3.2

2.71828..... (2): LaLight, mail-mi
mail-mi (2): 2.71828....., Calamitas

Not Voting (4): Swowl, WestCoastDidds, A Drowned Kernel, yuma

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 3 ends June 10, 2020, 03:30:00 am.
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Calamitas

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #679 on: June 07, 2020, 08:31:31 am »

Why did the speed of this go down so much. Why is e so silent given they are basically on the brink of being lynched?
Gonna go ahead and guess it had to do with the E! wagon getting run up so quickly.

Honestly, I am not a fan of this whole "there got to be scum off/on wagon" thingy. That is not a good style to scumread individiuals.
This is a fair point to an extent. You should not "skum read" individuals based on VCA. However, I will argue that "the on wagon off wagon thingy" WHEN WE ACTUALLY LYNCHED SKUM DAY 1... is kind of unarguably a good metric to use to attempt to create pools of potential team mates.

I think mail-mi hesitating to lynch Dylan is evidence of him being scum. If they were town they would have been a tad more eager to just lynch Dylan I think than if they knew of their towniness.
More importantly, they decided to go onto hammer the wagon that had E! on it, who is who they were pushing all day. Which is weird. and I get that.. but then see below...


I don't like e's play yesterday. As he said, he was in full tunnel vision but that might actually be because he and mail-mi are scum together or so and he had to fight really hard to get mail-mi over Dylan. I think I still prefer mail-mi over e in direct lynch comparision because
a) in the scenario where both are scum it doesn't matter
b) in the scenario where e is scum and mail-mi is town, e can be fine pushing less because it was clear one of them will be the target given what almost everyone stated
c) in the scenario where e is town and mail-mi is scum, his tunnel vision still makes sense
Thus, I put more probability mass on c) than on b).

Your ABCs here are like solid in thought. But you gotta ask yourself - If MM is skum, why would they kill Space? I know I have brought that up already, but I am actually asking you in regards to specifically your ABCs above here. Like regardless of whether or not you put merit into the one off one on concept, it was clearly stated to be the state of mind of a lot of players in the game. So...

a) They are both skum. Space is killed. Creates a pool of everyone's favorite choice [E!], a pool of [MailMi, Swan], and then then like [Calam, WCD, LL, Yuma]. This is the point I was kind of referring to in my previous post. This is actually possibly an explanation for the kill choice. They both go for one and other in hopes of giving mass town cred to the other.. I guess. But I mean there would be too many Town players alive for the survivor to avoid suspicion of being alive for the rest of the game... so it is a long shot.

b) E is skum, MM is Town. OK... I know I am town, and the kill choice then creates a field of MM/Swan (town, town), E (skum), and [WCD, Calam, LL, Yuma] (2 town, 1 skum). That is a pretty damn good spot for E to put them plus whoever from [WCD, Calam, LL, Yuma] is skum in.




*** "C" here is now it's own separate point I just came to while i was thinking out loud responding to this ***
c) I actually am slightly potentially changing my mind as I type this one up... MM skum, E Town. MM is then skum with one of [Calam, WCD, LL, Yuma]. Doesn't really make sense for them to isolate themselves into a pool with just me if they are skum... but, and this is what I just thought of right now... it could make sense if they come out with a sequence of let's say..
1) voting for Swowl
2) realizing that doesn't make sense, pointing out why, in attempts to remove both of us from selection
3) moving it to someone else, like E!.
That would make skum team MM+ one of [Calam, WCD, LL, Yuma]. So... plan would of been like... lynch E, kill within the second group, and set up for the long game 2v1. Does that parse?
I missed this while being wrapped up in doing the VCA. This could actually be a thing. Maybe.
I find it super hard to read your post I have to admit, the lines are so super long and I find it very hard to parse what you say, sorry.
I can respond to the "why kill Space"-thingy.

I don't think as much in terms of wagon analysis and I myself would never see an issue with mail-mi killing Space.
I mean, there is no fundamental reason why a scum should be off-wagon, that is not how this whole thing works.

I don't think of it in terms of different lynchpools but in terms of likelihoods of individual players and teams.
Killing someone off wagon and revealing them as town does not much but decrease the probability that scum was off wagon.

And Space is objectively one of the strongest players in the game and was strongly townread by most people and unlikely to be lynched.
I obviously cannot look in mail-mi's head and make estimates whether or not they would think along the same lines but I myself consider the Space kill quite good play by scum here.

And then add a bit of WIFOM to the mix and the fact that Dylan's and Space's lynch very much proved that serious town people can be reasonably assumed to be off-wagon which makes it just bad play to think that scum had to be off wagon. Those kind of unfounded assumptions don't get you an iota closer to finding scum.
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Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
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Calamitas

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #680 on: June 07, 2020, 09:04:41 am »

prod: LaLight
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Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

WestCoastDidds

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #681 on: June 07, 2020, 09:31:15 am »

I feel like we are talking in circles. More information gets added but it just muddies the water even more. I donít feel any sense of clarity about any of it. Arghhhhhhhh.......
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LaLight

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #682 on: June 07, 2020, 12:09:42 pm »

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LaLight

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #683 on: June 07, 2020, 12:09:59 pm »

I feel like we are talking in circles. More information gets added but it just muddies the water even more. I donít feel any sense of clarity about any of it. Arghhhhhhhh.......

yeah, exactly
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LaLight

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #684 on: June 07, 2020, 12:10:58 pm »

why is 2.7 not getting lynched? what are the alternatives? mail-mi and Swowl?

i don't know. i think it's 2.7 for sure and i will figure out who the second one is later
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #685 on: June 07, 2020, 01:22:41 pm »

I donít feel like we are getting anywhere.

Vote: e
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yuma

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #686 on: June 07, 2020, 01:41:57 pm »

vote: west?
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yuma

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #687 on: June 07, 2020, 01:47:55 pm »

I forgot about Day1 west movement. So no, unvote: west but that is exactly the attitude scum would hide behind here.

Shrug shoulders and vote. But I don't think west is doing it. And in fairness I feel the same. I guess I kinda feel like I want to look away from mail-mi and 2.7 but a split between sunk cost fallacy and buyer fatigue is making both want to and not want to.
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yuma

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #688 on: June 07, 2020, 01:54:57 pm »

Have we considered that someone like LaLight might have accidentally been on the joseph wagon.

Look at this:

LaLight's last post was #233. At that point Joseph had three votes (ADK, yuma, LaLight) and according to the vote count right above it there was still about 45 hours left in the Day1.

He doesn't post the rest of Day1. e's early hammer (along with all the on/off movement) might have forced him to keep his vote there and it was an accidental early bussing.

LaLight was very on and off with voting Joseph, but was more on than off early.

Can someone else look at this? I feel conspiracy theorist with this, but if it matches up with other behavior from LaLight (I think we have all had townier reads since he was so early on wagon, but has there been anything else?) then it may be something we are collectively ignoring.
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yuma

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #689 on: June 07, 2020, 01:57:14 pm »

Day2 and Day3 have also been underwhelming in that the content leaves nothing to get a read from except voting dylan and 2.6 and that weird VT claim thing with dylan...
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #690 on: June 07, 2020, 02:02:48 pm »

Checking in.
It is my birthday today, been out of town. Will be back this evening.

Things i wanna quick respond to just so it is done -

Yuma - Ok. I found the day 2 blurb about LL (not Dylan). I also read the other response, and yes much clearer.

Calam - sorry i know reading my shit is difficult for some. Thatís on me. You got the gist of it tho. I think you and i are just on a fundamental difference of opinion when it comes to wagon analysis (which is fine, each their own).

I will be caught up and back in it with like 48hrs  left to DL! Sorry!
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #691 on: June 07, 2020, 02:03:14 pm »

I forgot about Day1 west movement. So no, unvote: west but that is exactly the attitude scum would hide behind here.

Shrug shoulders and vote. But I don't think west is doing it. And in fairness I feel the same. I guess I kinda feel like I want to look away from mail-mi and 2.7 but a split between sunk cost fallacy and buyer fatigue is making both want to and not want to.

I know. Itís a crappy attitude. Itís just.....pfffttt....you know. Not scummy, just lethargic.
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #692 on: June 07, 2020, 02:07:32 pm »

Happy birthday swowl!

I like what Yuma is thinking. A lalight reread is in order, when I have time.
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yuma

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #693 on: June 07, 2020, 02:09:31 pm »

Happy birthday swowl!

I like what Yuma is thinking. A lalight reread is in order, when I have time.
Birthdays!

Lethargy!

Time!
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #694 on: June 07, 2020, 02:10:13 pm »

Happy birthday, Swowl!

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LaLight

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #695 on: June 07, 2020, 02:17:29 pm »

Have we considered that someone like LaLight might have accidentally been on the joseph wagon.

Look at this:

LaLight's last post was #233. At that point Joseph had three votes (ADK, yuma, LaLight) and according to the vote count right above it there was still about 45 hours left in the Day1.

He doesn't post the rest of Day1. e's early hammer (along with all the on/off movement) might have forced him to keep his vote there and it was an accidental early bussing.

LaLight was very on and off with voting Joseph, but was more on than off early.

Can someone else look at this? I feel conspiracy theorist with this, but if it matches up with other behavior from LaLight (I think we have all had townier reads since he was so early on wagon, but has there been anything else?) then it may be something we are collectively ignoring.

veeeery conspiracy theorist. although makes you slightly townier
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #696 on: June 08, 2020, 02:23:02 am »

back.
almost nothing has changed, so because.. a) I am tried and b) nothing has changed...

Vote: E!

I am just gonna be completely honest on this - at this point until I see an E! flip I do not think there is anything that can happen (less I suppose a result confirmation or something) that will keep me from wanting to lynch E!. This is me thinking this after taking 2 days off and looking at everything again. There are other candidates I suppose, but to me E! is in there own bracket at this point the way the day as progressed.

That is L-2
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #697 on: June 08, 2020, 02:24:06 am »

back.
almost nothing has changed, so because.. a) I am tried and b) nothing has changed...

Vote: E!

I am just gonna be completely honest on this - at this point until I see an E! flip I do not think there is anything that can happen (less I suppose a result confirmation or something) that will keep me from wanting to lynch E!. This is me thinking this after taking 2 days off and looking at everything again. There are other candidates I suppose, but to me E! is in there own bracket at this point the way the day as progressed.

That is L-2

*their own bracket*
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #698 on: June 08, 2020, 03:50:42 am »

vote: LaLight

why is 2.7 not getting lynched? what are the alternatives? mail-mi and Swowl?

i don't know. i think it's 2.7 for sure and i will figure out who the second one is later

Let's try something new.

The only thing that LaLight has that is making them not a lynch choice is their positioning on the Joseph wagon.  But let's actually look at that. (next post, seperating for clarity)
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #699 on: June 08, 2020, 03:52:14 am »

Vote Count 1.5

Joseph2302 (3): A Drowned Kernel, yuma, LaLight
mail-mi (1): 2.71828.....
scolapasta (2): mail-mi, Calamitas
A Drowned Kernel (1): Swowl
Calamitas (1): scolapasta
2.71828..... (1): SpaceAnemone
yuma (1): WestCoastDidds

Not Voting (2): Joseph2302, Dylan32

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 ends May 24, 2020, 06:00:00 am, which is in ~45.5 hours.

i think that scum actively ignores Joseph wagon, as it doesn't build as fast as it could have.

I'll return to vote: Joseph

I'll admit, that's an interesting point. Is there anyone who jumped on the scola wagon but has totally ignored the Joseph wagon? And I do mean ignored, not stood against it like llama, some bird, and me.  Because you could have a point that if scum did jump on a big wagon like scola's quickly and without much support earlier, they might be a bit more hesitant to jump on the next wagon that builds, but they wouldn't want to vocally oppose it in order to keep the door open to join it later or hammer at EoD.

Further, if I happen to be right, it doesn't imply Joseph is scum. It just means scum didn't want to look too eager to jump from fast growing L-1 reaching wagon to the next fastest growing wagon, so voting Joseph doesn't necessarily follow from the idea of scum ignoring his wagon unless you think it's motivated more by avoiding a wagon on a partner than avoiding looking scummy.

exactly

This is LaLight's last post of D1.  My theory is this: They got caught napping on their scum-buddy's wagon and then let the rest of D1 slide hoping that the lynch didn't happen.
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