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Author Topic: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Game over)  (Read 94527 times)

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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #550 on: May 30, 2020, 04:26:06 pm »

Or, I feel I should point out, scum!calamitas
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #551 on: May 30, 2020, 05:05:26 pm »

I got a little behind, so I'll re-read a bunch of D2 stuff in more detail now.

I agree with Calamitas that if we have scum!Dylan and town!Mail-mi, then we should have expected more of a scum!Mail-mi case to have been made. Which ironically makes me worried about then coming along with a Mail-mi re-read in case I feel like he's scummier than Dylan :-P However, the optics are less important than trying to get a glorious town victory...

One problem with that: I'm not scum. I think it's more likely that scum!Calamitas is trying to distract away from his partner Dylan (though I don't think that's the most likely pairing, speaking objectively).
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #552 on: May 30, 2020, 06:27:29 pm »

Alright, Iím settled down now after crazy running around day. Iím drinking wine now, so weíll see how the evening goes... Kid has us watching The Flash. Anything could happen.

Weíre waiting on Dylan to get to where to claim or not. Cool.

I donít think I have anything new to add, although I am here for the scum!Calam look-see.

Yams, bummer about having been perma-scum. Thatís rough.

Yuma, ADK, Space, Calamitis...someone come hammer the Stormlight game so we can GO!
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yuma

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #553 on: May 30, 2020, 06:28:00 pm »

I got a little behind, so I'll re-read a bunch of D2 stuff in more detail now.

I agree with Calamitas that if we have scum!Dylan and town!Mail-mi, then we should have expected more of a scum!Mail-mi case to have been made. Which ironically makes me worried about then coming along with a Mail-mi re-read in case I feel like he's scummier than Dylan :-P However, the optics are less important than trying to get a glorious town victory...

One problem with that: I'm not scum. I think it's more likely that scum!Calamitas is trying to distract away from his partner Dylan (though I don't think that's the most likely pairing, speaking objectively).
You think it is more likely?
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #554 on: May 30, 2020, 06:29:27 pm »

I am barely keeping up with this game. Can't join another...
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #555 on: May 30, 2020, 06:29:53 pm »

How exactly did the conversation switch to Calamatis?
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #556 on: May 30, 2020, 06:33:59 pm »

First, I am VT. LL predicting that either means scum!LL trying to preempt me or something, or they saw me do nothing N1, in which case saying so was a mistake because IF I was scum, leaving the option for me to claim something else and possibly an action N1 would have let you catch me. As it is, I'm really just a VT, so it doesn't particularly matter other than not being a good play.

Now to answer what seems like the most comprehensive "case" against me.  Answers inserted in bold.

So this actually started as a case elaboration on MailMi... but due to a finding or two, turned into a case on Dylan.

Order of relevant actions:

Votes RVS for LL

#97 Dylan calls Scola skummy for voting Joseph for referring in 3rd person, votes for Scola

Dylan votes for Scola

I still stand by that read given what we knew at the time, even though it was wrong. D1 is hard.

#130 Dylan's shepherd post. Gives their reasons, states that because of how wagon ran up (and that they stand by their original voting reason) they were gonna leave vote on Scola for a bit. Also - agrees with WCD in that there likely could be skum that got on behind him.
---- So I am a little confused as to how everyone missed this so far. Dylan, in the same post, says they think Scola is skummy still, and that there was likely skum that got on the wagon behind him? I mean if that is town!Dylan then that is Town Dylan a)not going to Joseph and staying on Scola and b) saying they think that both Scola AND someone else behind them on wagon are skummy. That is a lot. I missed this too to be fair but this is weird af. ---

It's not that weird when you consider it was D1 still.  You can see two different people/groups as scummy while also knowing that the reads are mutually exclusive. I just didn't say it because I figured people understood that already.  I thought scola's post was more likely to come from scum than town, but it was still possible that scola was town (from my perspective at the time), and so I agreed that it was very possible that scum helped run up that wagon that quickly.  With hindsight, that's clearly true. However, I felt it was still possible and ultimately more likely that scola was scum.

----- Also, for reference, this was the height of the Pasta wagon:
[Dylan32, A Drowned Kernel, LaLight, mail-mi, Calamitas, Joseph] ADK is Town, and they certainly did NOT think Joseph was skum... So dylan is FOSing at LL, MM, Calam in that spot.
See, there was at least 1 scum on, and I strongly suspect one of LL, mail-mi, and Calamitas is also scum.
#212 - Dylan agrees with Swowl that Joseph didn't really do anything skummy and finds the people that are fixated on Joseph the more skummier of the lot.
Bad read obviously. Not the first one of my career, won't be the last.

#214 - Now 2 posts later, they say not only do they find people behind him on Pasta skummy, but also the people that are moving to Joseph. They also vote for LL after isoing the LCD players to either ADK or LL.

That's what I do, I try to find narratives that explain people's behavior. See my case on Joseph D1 last game.

--- so here is the thing with all that.
first) people behind him on Pasta are skummy
second) people honing in on Joseph are skummy
third) goes for LL over ADK

Yeah, as more posts happen, I examine new evidence and see new possibilities.  I'm only in trouble right now because the one option I didn't really think was likely (scum!Joseph) is the one that was true...

So I am less interested in the concept of why they chose ADK over LL, as it means nothing without a flip. However, what is skummy, is just how this panned out.  You may be uninterested, but the reason is basically: I've played a lot with LL, never played a game with ADK so I was giving him a D1 pass.

1) Wagon runs up on Town!Scola
2) Wagon starts to shift to Joseph
3) Dylan finds people on Scola behind him skummy, while also finding people moving to Joseph skummy.

So then...
1) Why still on Scola? Because I saw two mutually exclusive possibilities and I thought scola's post was slightly scummier than the wagon movement.
2) Convenient timing.

So.. Joseph's thoughts...
a) People on Scola behind him are skummy but also Scola is skummy
b) People that piled off onto Joseph are skummy, but Joseph himself is not skummy enough vs Scola (even though point "a") to merit a Dylan vote for Joseph.
c) Then ends up putting it all together and voting for LL... which is fine. Except that it all hangs on the concept that he has to be hard Town Reading both Joseph and Scolapasta... except he liked his vote on Scolapasta.

#223 - post that is worth a lot of town points. States that skum may be likely to jump on the first building wagon (people on scola behind himself), but then if another town wagon (at this time thought of as Joseph) came up, they may not want to play hop scotch and jump around. This is a good point in a vortex. However, Joseph flipped red. So they have gone from People behind me on scola are skummy, to people that are focusing on Joseph that were also on scola behind me are skummy, to people behind me on scola are skummy and cross reference that with people that ignored the Joseph wagon - those are the skummy skums. Again, you expect to see town change their mind as evidence and ideas shift. Scum knows all alignments, so they have less reason to change their reads on the fly.

#226 - points out Space, Calam and E are the ones that ignorged the Joseph wagon. But they are all ok, probably just inactivity... scola is the skummy one because they are in-decisive. Someone else brought up the idea of engaging with or ignoring the evidence. I looked for who hadn't taken a stand, saw those three, but I soloed each of them and saw they hadn't really posted since the wagon ramped up, so the "probably just inactivity" was based on observed evidence, not hedging.

whatever posts followed by...

#301 - where they move to WCD. They find Scola more skummy still - but WCD is where they choose. This is 12 hours out.

Scola stalled and had no momentum, so I was looking for good alternatives that at the time I thought was better than Joseph.  I reread M126 and realized my reasons for scum reading WCD during my iso was way off, so my read flipped pretty quickly there.

#307 - defends josephs weird play

#311 - defends Joseph again

I'm totally fine bussing a partner, especially when they are the presumptive D1 lynch and when defending them isn't going to net me any town points. I see Joseph as a player that as scum buddies I would 100% never defend D1 unless there was an extremely good reason to, but I guess that's just WIFOM.
#312 - Votes back to Scolapasta
Yup, thought WCD was town and scola was the only alternative to what I thought was an easy mislynch on a null read.

#315 - If joseph flipped Green I would lynch dylan for this post. Says that scola is a better case, yet he sees why people are voting for them. However, Joseph flipped red, so it wasn't like they were leaving the window open to move.

He checks back in and says there is no reason that has been brought up that is merits enough credit to change their mind to Joseph over Scola. Then they check back in during twilight to comment on the UB claim shit.


TLDR; I obviously didn't want to lynch Joseph either, so I cannot hold that against Dylan. However, the multiple attempts to link suspicion to players he should not know the alignment of, combined with the multiple attempts to dismantle the Joseph wagon, combined with some of the other details there in between... this is where I am at:

Vote: Dylan

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #557 on: May 30, 2020, 06:36:53 pm »

Honestly, my D1 theory about scum wagoning scola then avoiding Joseph actually seems very likely. If I remember correctly, the pool there was LL and ADK, and if ADK is scum gg, because that counterclaim was brilliant if you are scum. So major FOS on LL after you all realize I'm not scum, whether through logic or a flip.  If e is town (I strongly doubt it), then mail-mi and/or calamitas are pretty likely to be scum.
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #558 on: May 30, 2020, 06:37:44 pm »

I would switch to LL or mail-mi, but until a wagon forms somewhere else, I'm just leaving my vote on scum!e.
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yuma

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #559 on: May 30, 2020, 06:38:57 pm »

a very rationale, well explained response...
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #560 on: May 30, 2020, 07:10:08 pm »

I got a little behind, so I'll re-read a bunch of D2 stuff in more detail now.

I agree with Calamitas that if we have scum!Dylan and town!Mail-mi, then we should have expected more of a scum!Mail-mi case to have been made. Which ironically makes me worried about then coming along with a Mail-mi re-read in case I feel like he's scummier than Dylan :-P However, the optics are less important than trying to get a glorious town victory...

One problem with that: I'm not scum. I think it's more likely that scum!Calamitas is trying to distract away from his partner Dylan (though I don't think that's the most likely pairing, speaking objectively).
You think it is more likely?

It's more likely than me being scum for the reasons calamitas and space stated. (To me, its infinitely more likely since I know I'm town.
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #561 on: May 30, 2020, 07:18:20 pm »

To me, its infinitely more likely since I know I'm town.
Exactly or should have been exactly.
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #562 on: May 30, 2020, 07:48:31 pm »

I donít like about Dylan though that except from LaLight none of my townreads is on that wagon. No ADK, no Space, no me.

I mean... ADK is everyone's town read. You are yourself... so you have 2 town reads... and half of them are on that wagon (at time of this post actually ADK switched so 2/3)... but even if it is just 50% of them... like how many of your town pool do you expect to be in consensus?
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #563 on: May 30, 2020, 09:00:52 pm »

I've done a lot of D2 re-reading today. The first thing that stands out to me is mail-mi's wagon analysis.

Here's the final vote count from yesterday, color-coded for people we know are town/scum. This analysis will be based on simply the vote count and what I remember from yesterday, with more details (hopefully) to come.

In that long post, he basically insists that there must be at least one scum on the scola wagon (which consisted of Dylan32, mail-mi, Swowl), and the remaining one probably on Joseph.

If I were in the middle of a three-person wagon that I was dead-certain contained at least one scum, I'd be pretty happy voting my 50/50 chance that one of the others is scum.

However Mail-mi ignored those great odds, and instead does a load of PoE with excuses like Didds having had towny-seeming reactions and LL being on Joseph much of D1, in order to whittle the six unknowns on Joseph's wagon down to two, and then votes one of those two instead. Why is that more sensible than voting for either Dylan or Swowl, with no messy PoE necessary to get down to those two?

E actually started to pick at this a little but then sadly went off in the direction of trying to sell the Dylan lynch Mail-mi instead of Mail-mi's interest in voting e himself. However the two of them (e and Mail-mi) still had an interesting little exchange around #430-#436, but I still feel like we never get to the bottom of the real reason that Mail-mi wants to vote within a lynchpool that requires significant PoE rather than a lynchpool of the same size that is literally all the players who were off-wagon. (His later post includes me in the off-wagon pool and also Calamitas in the on-wagon pool, again meaning equal-sized pools).

Vote: Mail-mi
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #564 on: May 30, 2020, 09:01:25 pm »

Weird little triangle thing going on here with player's lynch pools today. Yuma pointed out earlier in the day that *assuming this part - after we got skum Day 1* we should stop the lists of chum to skum... which I agree with. Recently, there has been no chum to skum lists, but there has been lynch preferences.

E! - [Mail-Mi, Dylan]
Swowl's last post where he started trying to build a case on mail-mi but landed on Dylan just reads super-duper town to me. Don't really want to lynch swowl today anymore.
Mail-mi or Dylan.
Ready to lynch either one.
Appreciated my case (thanks) and removed me from today's suspicion list. They did absolutely NOT have to do that. I think my points are as good as a case as anyone is gonna find on anyone today (I know, because I have looked lol)... but he could of just of easily followed ADK and said he found it skummy and tried to come at me. Instead, they limited their list to [MailMi, Dylan]


Calamaties - [Mail-Mi, Dylan]
Want to lynch today: Mail-mi, Dylan
Might be next-in-line: Yuma, Swowl, e
Null: WCD, LaLight
Town: Space
IC: ADK
They do then come back and say that Mail-Mi and Dylan are starting to waver, but I believe the rank still holds unless I am mis reading.


Mail-Mi - [Dylan, Swowl, E!]
I'm good with a Dylan lynch. I mean, from my perspective it's either him or Swowl (or both) and as of now I don't have a preference on either one.
Consider this an Intent to hammer to encourage a claim.
They a few posts later acknowledge skum read also on E!, which is why on the list.


Dylan - [E!, LL, MailMi]
I would switch to LL or mail-mi, but until a wagon forms somewhere else, I'm just leaving my vote on scum!e.


LaLight - [Dylan] and I think [E!]?
- I don't have a post for this one. It is just based on trying to read through LL Day 2 and where they seem to be at.


WCD - [Dylan, Mail-Mi]
Mail-mi and Dylan look the worst after yesterday. I was especially perplexed by yams voting for me...it was a weird group of people to follow.  But Dylan seems overall more shady. I think I will vote for one of them today.
*snipped*


Yuma - [Mail-Mi, E!]
- Similar to LL, just trying to follow posts of Day 2 for Yuma.


Space - [Swowl, Yuma]
- This is straight up a guess from reading what they have said. I really have no idea. I am just doing it for completion.


Swowl - [Dylan, Mail-Mi]



I am sorry I had the analysis for this ready to type but it is gonna have to wait a few hours. I have some IRL stuff that came up. just typing this now so I do not lose it. The rest will follow.
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #565 on: May 30, 2020, 09:04:22 pm »

Vote: Dylan

Iíve been meaning to vote but wanted to see the vote count. I feel pretty sure scum is on that short list.

@Didds, I assume that when you said "that short list", you mean the end-of-day Scola wagon, is that correct?

Why did you feel like Dylan over Mail-mi, given that they're both there on the Scola wagon?
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #566 on: May 30, 2020, 09:11:34 pm »

Space - [Swowl, Yuma]
- This is straight up a guess from reading what they have said. I really have no idea. I am just doing it for completion.

I think you're okay right now. Not the towniest person, but not a D2 lynch as far as my preferences go.

I think I'm okay with it being between Dylan and Mail-mi for D2, but I want to see more conversations around that before an early hammer.

I do find it really interesting that we've ended up with two scummy-looking off-wagon lynch candidates D2, even though Joseph was playing a really scummy D1 game and I wouldn't be at all surprised if both his buddies ended up bussing. I'm concerned that there are on-wagon people keeping a low profile and contributing very little to D2 even though there's so much more to talk about now than we had in D1.
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #567 on: May 30, 2020, 09:21:24 pm »

I will respond to space later, just noting this for when I have time.
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #568 on: May 30, 2020, 09:22:22 pm »

I got a little behind, so I'll re-read a bunch of D2 stuff in more detail now.

I agree with Calamitas that if we have scum!Dylan and town!Mail-mi, then we should have expected more of a scum!Mail-mi case to have been made. Which ironically makes me worried about then coming along with a Mail-mi re-read in case I feel like he's scummier than Dylan :-P However, the optics are less important than trying to get a glorious town victory...

One problem with that: I'm not scum. I think it's more likely that scum!Calamitas is trying to distract away from his partner Dylan (though I don't think that's the most likely pairing, speaking objectively).

Do you really feel that way? If so, why aren't you pushing more of a Dylan case? From town!you's point of view, you have both the tiny off-wagon lynchpool (Swowl, Dylan and possibly me if you want to explain why I wouldn't either have been bussing a troublesome scumbuddy or at least doing something sensible to distract from him like supporting the leading alternative wagon), and now you think that the most likely reason that Calamitas is pointing out how unlikely it seems that not more people are scumreading you if Dylan is really scum is if both Dylan and Calamitas are the final two scums.

So from your point of view, scum!Dylan seems super-likely if you're town. I find it a bit confusing that you're not acting like you think that. What other hypotheses (as far as who scum is) are you most worried about that keep you voting for e?

PPE 1: okay, well it's more than an hour past sleep time for me now anyway :-)
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Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

Calamitas

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #569 on: May 31, 2020, 08:40:35 am »

I donít like about Dylan though that except from LaLight none of my townreads is on that wagon. No ADK, no Space, no me.

I mean... ADK is everyone's town read. You are yourself... so you have 2 town reads... and half of them are on that wagon (at time of this post actually ADK switched so 2/3)... but even if it is just 50% of them... like how many of your town pool do you expect to be in consensus?
No, I am confident about the towniness of 5 people in total. And 1 of them is on that wagon.

Which makes the motives of almost everyone on that wagon questionable.
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Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

Calamitas

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #570 on: May 31, 2020, 08:43:21 am »

I've done a lot of D2 re-reading today. The first thing that stands out to me is mail-mi's wagon analysis.

Here's the final vote count from yesterday, color-coded for people we know are town/scum. This analysis will be based on simply the vote count and what I remember from yesterday, with more details (hopefully) to come.

In that long post, he basically insists that there must be at least one scum on the scola wagon (which consisted of Dylan32, mail-mi, Swowl), and the remaining one probably on Joseph.

If I were in the middle of a three-person wagon that I was dead-certain contained at least one scum, I'd be pretty happy voting my 50/50 chance that one of the others is scum.

However Mail-mi ignored those great odds, and instead does a load of PoE with excuses like Didds having had towny-seeming reactions and LL being on Joseph much of D1, in order to whittle the six unknowns on Joseph's wagon down to two, and then votes one of those two instead. Why is that more sensible than voting for either Dylan or Swowl, with no messy PoE necessary to get down to those two?

E actually started to pick at this a little but then sadly went off in the direction of trying to sell the Dylan lynch Mail-mi instead of Mail-mi's interest in voting e himself. However the two of them (e and Mail-mi) still had an interesting little exchange around #430-#436, but I still feel like we never get to the bottom of the real reason that Mail-mi wants to vote within a lynchpool that requires significant PoE rather than a lynchpool of the same size that is literally all the players who were off-wagon. (His later post includes me in the off-wagon pool and also Calamitas in the on-wagon pool, again meaning equal-sized pools).

Vote: Mail-mi
Thank you space, I noticed it and spoke about it but didn't formulate it as clearly as you did and forgot to push on it further as I was distracted by missing the caveat. This is weird indeed.
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Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

Calamitas

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #571 on: May 31, 2020, 08:46:40 am »

even though Joseph was playing a really scummy D1 game
We both didn't see it as scummy at the time
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Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #572 on: May 31, 2020, 08:53:02 am »

mail-mi, you expressed intent to hammer Dylan, has that changed at all?

calamitas, what is your current opinion on Dylan?
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The perfect engine
But it will never go off
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faust

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #573 on: May 31, 2020, 09:02:14 am »

Vote Count 2.4

mail-mi (3): Calamitas, yuma, SpaceAnemone
Dylan32 (5): 2.71828....., LaLight, WestCoastDidds, Swowl, A Drowned Kernel
2.71828..... (2): Dylan32, mail-mi

Not Voting (0)

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 2 ends June 02, 2020, 05:30:00 am.
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The quiet comprehending of the ending of it all

Calamitas

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #574 on: May 31, 2020, 09:12:36 am »

mail-mi, you expressed intent to hammer Dylan, has that changed at all?

calamitas, what is your current opinion on Dylan?
I prefer mail-mi as I cannot really imagine a scum!Dylan & town!mail-mi scenario, the push on mail-mi has been way to weak for that.

Dylan is in my second tier of people I want to lynch. I still don't like the way he defended Joseph and ignored him at the beginning of D1. His states reasons for not liking Joseph are potentially authentic though and his reaction to LaLight sounds kind of genuine though I think it's misguided. And I don't have much confidence in the people on wagon, in particular e, Swowl and to a lesser extent West.
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Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84
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