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[mail-mi]

Day 1 Final Vote Count

Joseph2302 (7): A Drowned Kernel, LaLight, WestCoastDidds, Calamitas, scolapasta, yuma, 2.71828.....
scolapasta (3): Dylan32, mail-mi, Swowl
2.71828..... (1): SpaceAnemone
WestCoastDidds (1): Joseph2302

Not Voting (0):

With 12 alive, it took 7 to lynch. Twilight begins now and lasts until May 24, 2020, 03:30:00 pm.

Here's the final vote count from yesterday, color-coded for people we know are town/scum. This analysis will be based on simply the vote count and what I remember from yesterday, with more details (hopefully) to come.

We're looking at 2 more scum. I think it's unlikely that both of them are on scola, but I think one of them is. So I think there's definitely scum in [mail-mi, Swowl, Dylan32]. From my perspective, there's scum in [Swowl, Dylan32]. Honorable mention goes to Space.

There's a lot of players on Joseph (6, actually). ADK is obv!town, if he's scum, gg. I think LaLight was on Joseph the whole day, which is a ballsy scum move if they're scum, so I think I'm handing them townpoints for it. WCD got some heat yesterday and I think her reaction to it was townie. I found Calamitas scummy yesterday, and this isn't a bad bussing spot to be in, so minor scum points.

I think the 2 scummiest on the wagon are yuma and e, but I don't think it can be both of them.
 
Scum!yuma scenario: I can see scum!yuma coming in, voting Joseph to L-1, and hoping for a classic F.DS end-of-d1 scramble to lynch someone else, then town!e hammers and crushes all of scum!yuma's dreams.

Scum!e scenario: Exactly what e himself described: going for the hammer on his buddy for a last-ditch attempt at towncred after being absent for most of D1.

Hm, now that I'm thinking about this, I think I'm starting to agree with Dylan on e. I need to do a reread, but let's not forget that e came in in the middle of the day (when the competing wagons were still scola and Joseph) and tried to start a whole new thing on WCD, which Joseph latched onto (as well as Swowl). I would not be surprised at and am currently calling a Swowl/e/Joseph scumteam.

vote: e

[MiX]

Vote Count 2.1

mail-mi (2): A Drowned Kernel, Calamitas
Dylan32 (2): 2.71828....., LaLight
2.71828..... (2): Dylan32, mail-mi

Not Voting (4): SpaceAnemone, WestCoastDidds, yuma, DatSwan

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 2 ends June 02, 2020, 05:30:00 am.

[Swowl]

Day 1 Final Vote Count

Joseph2302 (7): A Drowned Kernel, LaLight, WestCoastDidds, Calamitas, scolapasta, yuma, 2.71828.....
scolapasta (3): Dylan32, mail-mi, Swowl
2.71828..... (1): SpaceAnemone
WestCoastDidds (1): Joseph2302

Not Voting (0):

With 12 alive, it took 7 to lynch. Twilight begins now and lasts until May 24, 2020, 03:30:00 pm.

Here's the final vote count from yesterday, color-coded for people we know are town/scum. This analysis will be based on simply the vote count and what I remember from yesterday, with more details (hopefully) to come.

We're looking at 2 more scum. I think it's unlikely that both of them are on scola, but I think one of them is. So I think there's definitely scum in [mail-mi, Swowl, Dylan32]. From my perspective, there's scum in [Swowl, Dylan32]. Honorable mention goes to Space.

There's a lot of players on Joseph (6, actually). ADK is obv!town, if he's scum, gg. I think LaLight was on Joseph the whole day, which is a ballsy scum move if they're scum, so I think I'm handing them townpoints for it. WCD got some heat yesterday and I think her reaction to it was townie. I found Calamitas scummy yesterday, and this isn't a bad bussing spot to be in, so minor scum points.

I think the 2 scummiest on the wagon are yuma and e, but I don't think it can be both of them.
 
Scum!yuma scenario: I can see scum!yuma coming in, voting Joseph to L-1, and hoping for a classic F.DS end-of-d1 scramble to lynch someone else, then town!e hammers and crushes all of scum!yuma's dreams.

Scum!e scenario: Exactly what e himself described: going for the hammer on his buddy for a last-ditch attempt at towncred after being absent for most of D1.

Hm, now that I'm thinking about this, I think I'm starting to agree with Dylan on e. I need to do a reread, but let's not forget that e came in in the middle of the day (when the competing wagons were still scola and Joseph) and tried to start a whole new thing on WCD, which Joseph latched onto (as well as Swowl). I would not be surprised at and am currently calling a Swowl/e/Joseph scumteam.

vote: e

Correction - I did not say i was on board with WCD.
I do agree with you wagon analysis outside of that though. I have one other point of view I’ll get to shortly, but most of the scenarios make sense.

[Swowl]

trying to do a little bit of a general read through.
First thing that pops out is the height of the scolapasta wagon, when Joseph put them at L-1:

scolapasta (6): Dylan32, A Drowned Kernel, LaLight, mail-mi, Calamitas, Joseph2302
A Drowned Kernel (2): SpaceAnemone, yuma
Joseph2302 (1): scolapasta
mail-mi (1): 2.71828.....
Not Voting (2): WestCoastDidds, DatSwan

Two things I guess:

1) I believe that the reason he tried to set this up was to get town to make a mistake with a quick hammer. The day was dragging on, moving slowly, and just kind of the only situation in which town may actually consider doing it. Not the best theory, but IDK how many other reasons there could be.

2) I think the reason they jumped off all of sudden was because in fact THEY were the one that made a mistake. I think they tried to do a thing and then realized that the scolapasta wagon was saturated with skum. Whether it was just him and another or all three of them, idk.

So point 1 would have us believe that there were enough town off wagon to give a high enough possibility to possibly find a quick hammer from town, and point 2 would suggest, in agreement with point 1, that there was at least some other skum on that wagon.

TLDR;
I think there is essentially a 100% chance of finding skum in [Dylan32, A Drowned Kernel, LaLight, mail-mi, Calamitas].
Removing ADK for now, for obv reasons, leaves the pool of [Dylan32, LaLight, mail-mi, Calamitas].

I know that sounds kind of "stretch-y", but there are only so many options. Either...
a) All three skum was on the scola wagon
b) Joseph +1 on scola, and other off wagon
c) Joseph was only skum on scola wagon
I think "c" is unlikely.


The final wagon was:
Joseph2302 (7): A Drowned Kernel, LaLight, WestCoastDidds, Calamitas, scolapasta, yuma, 2.71828.....
scolapasta (3): Dylan32, mail-mi, Swowl
2.71828..... (1): SpaceAnemone
WestCoastDidds (1): Joseph2302

So there were two players in the grouping of [Dylan, LL, MailMi, Calamitas] that were both on scola and did not want to go to Joseph at the end. Those players were - [Dylan, MailMi]. LL got on pretty damn early, so I mean... that looks decent. Calam was the person on the scola wagon right before Joseph put it at L1, and then had that "convenient placement" in the Joseph wagon... so maybe that could be a bus, but I think MailMi/Dylan has a much stronger chance at this point.

I thought MailMi was on the radar yesterday, so for now gonna go with

Vote: Mail-Mi

[2.71828.....]

Day 1 Final Vote Count

Joseph2302 (7): A Drowned Kernel, LaLight, WestCoastDidds, Calamitas, scolapasta, yuma, 2.71828.....
scolapasta (3): Dylan32, mail-mi, Swowl
2.71828..... (1): SpaceAnemone
WestCoastDidds (1): Joseph2302

Not Voting (0):

With 12 alive, it took 7 to lynch. Twilight begins now and lasts until May 24, 2020, 03:30:00 pm.

Here's the final vote count from yesterday, color-coded for people we know are town/scum. This analysis will be based on simply the vote count and what I remember from yesterday, with more details (hopefully) to come.

We're looking at 2 more scum. I think it's unlikely that both of them are on scola, but I think one of them is. So I think there's definitely scum in [mail-mi, Swowl, Dylan32]. From my perspective, there's scum in [Swowl, Dylan32]. Honorable mention goes to Space.

There's a lot of players on Joseph (6, actually). ADK is obv!town, if he's scum, gg. I think LaLight was on Joseph the whole day, which is a ballsy scum move if they're scum, so I think I'm handing them townpoints for it. WCD got some heat yesterday and I think her reaction to it was townie. I found Calamitas scummy yesterday, and this isn't a bad bussing spot to be in, so minor scum points.

I think the 2 scummiest on the wagon are yuma and e, but I don't think it can be both of them.
 
Scum!yuma scenario: I can see scum!yuma coming in, voting Joseph to L-1, and hoping for a classic F.DS end-of-d1 scramble to lynch someone else, then town!e hammers and crushes all of scum!yuma's dreams.

Scum!e scenario: Exactly what e himself described: going for the hammer on his buddy for a last-ditch attempt at towncred after being absent for most of D1.

Hm, now that I'm thinking about this, I think I'm starting to agree with Dylan on e. I need to do a reread, but let's not forget that e came in in the middle of the day (when the competing wagons were still scola and Joseph) and tried to start a whole new thing on WCD, which Joseph latched onto (as well as Swowl). I would not be surprised at and am currently calling a Swowl/e/Joseph scumteam.

vote: e

I have no clue how you look at that wagon and say the two scummiest are the final two votes. It makes zero sense

[mail-mi]

I have no clue how you look at that wagon and say the two scummiest are the final two votes. It makes zero sense

ADK is town. LaLight is pretty townie from it to. I townread WCD. The last people left on the wagon are [Calamitas, 2.7, yuma] and I think at least one of them is scum, and most likely you.

I can be persuaded to one of the others, though.

[2.71828.....]

I have no clue how you look at that wagon and say the two scummiest are the final two votes. It makes zero sense

ADK is town. LaLight is pretty townie from it to. I townread WCD. The last people left on the wagon are [Calamitas, 2.7, yuma] and I think at least one of them is scum, and most likely you.

I can be persuaded to one of the others, though.

Why is your first instinct to look on wagon?

[2.71828.....]

Granted, bussing D1 can happen, but it is not something that scum want to do. I think it was ashersky who mentioned once that they straight up don't bus scum D1 a while back. I am not hard line like that, but pretty close

[mail-mi]

Granted, bussing D1 can happen, but it is not something that scum want to do. I think it was ashersky who mentioned once that they straight up don't bus scum D1 a while back. I am not hard line like that, but pretty close

If you recall, I also looked off wagon. I think there's one scum in [calamitas, 2.7, yuma] and one scum in [dylan, swowl, space]. Again, I can be convinced to vote elsewhere, but I haven't been yet.

[2.71828.....]

So you say that one scum exists in [Yuma, calamitis, e] and then one scum in [space, Dylan, swowl].

Why is swowl the third scum? What do you think of my case on Dylan?

[2.71828.....]

-snip-

I love how e is absent most of D1, comes in and immediately starts pushing away from Joseph (in fact inventing a new wagon to do so at a time when things were starting to consolidate a bit), hammers in a noncommittal tone for the sake of getting a lynch (which is NAI), then comes out D2 claiming psuedo-IC for the hammer and throwing shade at people who didn't like the D1 Joseph wagon without so much as a shred of acknowledgement that he did the same thing but was lucky enough to be online at the deadline in order to hammer and get himself on wagon.

Vote: e

I mean, obvious (and valid) points, I only take umbrage with the fact that I was lucky to be online at deadline.

In fact, had I been scum I could very well have been lucky enough to not be online.

There is the angle that I saw the inevitable and went for the town cred after an abysmal D1. And sure. I deserve that. But I will try to do better today.

By lucky enough to be... I meant as it regards timezones and the deadline being such that you were able to be online, not that you being online specifically was alignment related, as most of the US based players wouldn't have had the opportunity to hammer there no matter what their alignment unless they got up really early or stayed up extremely late.  And are you saying the angle in the 3rd line is a town narrative for it? Because scum could just as easily see the inevitable and go for town cred after not being active D1.

I was going angle from your perspective.  i.e. I am scum and needed town cred so I hammered my partner.

While a viable option (and understandable argument from scum!dylan), it is incorrect.  I am a firm believer in town being much more likely to win with a scum D1 lynch.  I don't lynch my partner there.  I lurk and hope that something crazy happens and my partner survives.

I guess with you not being in the last game, you may not know this, but last game scum declared intent to hammer scum!Joseph D1, but the deadline passed before they did, and that failure to hammer basically lost scum the game, where if they had actually hammered, they probably would have avoided much scrutiny for a bit longer. Of course just not showing up in order to hammer is different than declaring intent to hammer and then not. So my perspective is that scum would have been fairly likely to go ahead and hammer there if they were online. In a lot of cases, there is time to lurk and hope crazy things happen. And way to categorize that angle as only reasonable from scum!me, when it makes perfect sense from town!me's perspective here too.

Also, the whole "we don't need any claims here" *hammer* "Thanks for not giving me time to claim, I'm the UB" sequence seems like a planned contingency from N0 in order to either out the real UB or figure out if there was one or not. Given Joseph's proclivity to be a D1 lynch candidate, it doesn't much to think he would throw out something like, hey, if I'm on the block D1, go ahead and hammer. If I can out a PR I will.

ppe 1

1. If you state an internet to hammer and don't carry through.... Yeah, that's just bad play. One reason why I don't state intent to hammer. I just do it.

2. N0 coordination? Sure...

[mail-mi]

So you say that one scum exists in [Yuma, calamitis, e] and then one scum in [space, Dylan, swowl].

Why is swowl the third scum? What do you think of my case on Dylan?

I haven't reread D1, but it seemed like he was hedgy on Joseph and never really took a solid stance (again, could be wrong, needs rereading)

I'd also have to look at that again, but I liked his case on you, so.

[yuma]

I will be reading this tomorrow evening. Haven't had time for much of anything last few days. I didn't anticipate how busy I would be. Apologies, but will be back soon.

[2.71828.....]

working on a Dylan rebuttal post/case against him, and noticed this.

Vote Count 1.6

Joseph2302 (4): A Drowned Kernel, yuma, LaLight, WestCoastDidds
scolapasta (2): mail-mi, Calamitas
A Drowned Kernel (1): Swowl
Calamitas (1): scolapasta
2.71828..... (2): SpaceAnemone, Joseph2302
WestCoastDidds (2): 2.71828....., Dylan32

Not Voting (0):

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 ends May 24, 2020, 06:00:00 am, which is in ~13 hours.

I will probably not be around before deadline, have to see. I think I will do vote: Joseph for now. Haven't read WCD so no preference there yet, noticed nothing in the normal flow of the game.

These posts are back to back.  If Calamitas is scum, this was a great opportunity to vote on an alternative wagon (WCD potentially), but they chose to vote Joseph. Very townie.

The flip-side is maybe they wanted to partner distance....but, I will just give them the town points and call it a day.

[2.71828.....]

Let's compare the cases:


scum!e.case) e is basically absent D1 (4 posts prior to the day end burst of activity), has an RVS vote on mail-mi. When e does show up he doesn't like a Joseph lynch and creates an alternative wagon on WCD because he doesn't like the Joseph lynch. non-committal hammer on Joseph feels like a town-cred grab rather than actual townie vote.

scum!Dylan.case) Dylan is relatively active (25 posts on D1), and is consistently anti-Joseph lynch. RVS vote on LL (seems pretty townie) (and all votes do count, say what you want about RVS), creates a wagon on pasta (town), eventually unvotes and doesn't vote again until he jumps on the first pseudo-viable wagon (WCD)

Regarding the WCD wagon.  Scum does not typically create a random wagon at the end of the day on someone they know will likely not get lynched.  Rather, scum jumps on an alternative wagon that they think could be potentially viable when they get the chance.  Dylan had already unvoted pasta earlier in the day and may have felt that re-voting there would be too much of a flip-flop, so when WCD appeared as an option he jumped at the opportunity. Of course, Dylan does end up going back to scolapasta (because of this?). And I end up hammering scum. 

[2.71828.....]

Vote Count 1.7

Joseph2302 (4): A Drowned Kernel, LaLight, WestCoastDidds, Calamitas
scolapasta (2): mail-mi, Dylan32
A Drowned Kernel (1): Swowl
Calamitas (1): scolapasta
2.71828..... (1): SpaceAnemone
WestCoastDidds (3): 2.71828....., yuma, Joseph2302

Not Voting (0):

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 ends May 24, 2020, 06:00:00 am, which is in ~7 hours.

This is probably my last vote count for this in-game day and I have no idea where faust is, so here's my fair warning.

We regret to inform you that mail-mi will not be awake for deadline, but he will leave with a vote: WCD as a better alternative than Joseph.

This is a terrible idea.  I am town, and me getting lynched will start us off in the hole.

It may not be Joseph, but it sure as heck isn't me, and this last day pivot toward me with ZERO ARTICULATED REASON reeks of scumminess. 

I am heading to bed.  You can trust me or not, but remember all of this was started less than 7 hours ago.  The only way a wagon builds that fast and lands a town mislynch is a heap 'o scum joining in.

WCD is town. vote: scola

This little exchange is interesting.  Mail-mi jumping on and off WCD at a critical juncture.  I am starting to get much more suspicious of mail-mi than I was.

[2.71828.....]

Day 1 Final Vote Count

Joseph2302 (7): A Drowned Kernel, LaLight, WestCoastDidds, Calamitas, scolapasta, yuma, 2.71828.....
scolapasta (3): Dylan32, mail-mi, Swowl
2.71828..... (1): SpaceAnemone
WestCoastDidds (1): Joseph2302

Not Voting (0):

With 12 alive, it took 7 to lynch. Twilight begins now and lasts until May 24, 2020, 03:30:00 pm.

So if we take the two categories of people, this is where I stand
On Wagon
e - Town
ADK - basically IC for me
LaLight - very townie seeming
yuma - middle of the road
WCD - middle of the road
Calamitas - scummiest for being on wagon, but referencing my post above, voted for Joseph at a pretty critical juncture when they didn't have to.

Off Wagon
Space - townier side of things. Need to reread, don't really see anything scummy here though
Swowl - townier side of things. While looking back at mail-mi and Dylan I saw some things that were questionable (as far as defending Joseph), but nothing stands out to me as scummy
mail-mi - The flip-flopping toward deadline and ending up anywhere but Joseph seems suspect
Dylan - my top scum choice

[2.71828.....]

Current reads:

Scum tier
Dylan, mail-mi

Scummy(ish)
Calamitas

Merits a reread, I don't remember much about them
yuma, WCD, Swowl

Townie(ish)
Space, LaLight

Town
ADK, e

[LaLight]

vote: 2.7

[2.71828.....]

vote: 2.7

por que?

[2.71828.....]

vote: 2.7

por que?

Maybe I am being too active now. I should just go back to lurking

[LaLight]

your level of activity is fine, don't let my vote discourage you!

so, I haven't slept for 1,5 days and maybe my logic is flawed, but 2.7 was REALLY deliberate in his last posts. Like, scum deliberate. I mean when I am town, I write blurbs of somewhat meaningful information, when I am scum, I am super confident and make underlined bolded lists. i actually just imagined you doing it and thought, oh, thia guy is scum.

[LaLight]

also, lists

also also the more i think about it, it just means you're a good player.

back to vote: Dylan

and, yeah SDAMA (Sleep Deprived Ask Me Anything)

[Calamitas]

I am super confused by e, their argument against me doesn't make sense in the slightest? As I stated, I think all three of Dylan, mail-mi and swowl are scummy and thought the mail-mi case to be a bit stronger. It's not like Dylan is orders of magnitude scummier than mail-mi; if so please analyse them side-by-side and tell me why.

All my actions are extremely clear from my town perspective. As I said, I didn't think Josephs stuff was alignment indicative. Joseph does weird stuff all the time. Thus I did nullread him but stated (or at least thought when Space was posting similar stuff, I didn't want to insult Joseph at the time) from the very beginning onwards that Joseph is one of the better misslynchs and thus my favourite target from the nullread people. This is very much my style in every single game, you modded XKCD mafia. I am absolutely terrible at making reads D1 and base my decisions on general principles and sometimes single posts I think are somewhat indicative as I judge basically everything as null D1.

Before I went to bed, I did the action that would most likely ensure a lynch and it did as town!me would do every single time there.

Then on D2, I re-read, saw Dylan's scummy post, noticed it and made a quick comment before going offline to . If you don't think I am more likely to do that as town then you are clearly miss-calibrated. While continuing to read, I saw more stuff indicating Dylan but also saw a potentially coherent town-narrative. Some posts felt genuine to me. I stand by my case made and it's as comprehensive as anything I have seen in this game.

Mail-mi does stuff very similar to Dylan and as I wanted to leave a vote before going offline for some time, I voted mail-mi as expressed in #406. I explicitly stated that I don't have a strong preference, note the "I think", "for now", "also don't like" as I didn't have the time to carefully weigh the evidence against all parties involved. 

I really don't get why you are so confident that mail-mi is town and Dylan scum. I am genuinely uncertain who is more likely out of those two to be scum and I think I have presented two good cases.

[Calamitas]

Current reads:

Scum tier
Dylan, mail-mi

Scummy(ish)
Calamitas

Merits a reread, I don't remember much about them
yuma, WCD, Swowl

Townie(ish)
Space, LaLight

Town
ADK, e

Btw, this table is not distinguishing between Dylan and mail-mi. A bit weird given that you think that the difference is so monumental to merit my being scummyish despite decidedly towny actions for my non-confident choice between the two *shrug