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Author Topic: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Game over)  (Read 123497 times)

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Dylan32

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #225 on: May 21, 2020, 11:56:09 pm »

Ok, really the only people who haven't commented directly on Joseph and/or his wagon are e, Space, and Calamitas, and I'm inclined to think that's as much due to their inactivity (>24 hours since last post for all 3) than to any intentional ignoring. Of the rest, scola took the least decisive postion with:

@ scolapasta -
you have any reads or avenues you like at this point?
your current vote is RVS or no?
you also played the last M game with Joseph, and he was skum then. How you feel about Joseph now?

Someday, you'll have to explain "swowl" to me.

Current vote is not RVS. (That was my initial Joseph vote). I think my current vote is at Calamitas? For the L-2 Shennanigans. That said I could probably be swayed towards Joseph. Or maybe even mail-mi (while I am highly enjoying his customer service, he didn't accept my pressing "5" I wonder if it could be a smokescreen. In that, we wouldn't lynch him, just for the cleverness?)
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #226 on: May 22, 2020, 01:17:36 am »

Sorry for the inactivity, I will catch up today
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #227 on: May 22, 2020, 06:04:43 am »

Ok, really the only people who haven't commented directly on Joseph and/or his wagon are e, Space, and Calamitas, and I'm inclined to think that's as much due to their inactivity (>24 hours since last post for all 3) than to any intentional ignoring.

Mine is partly due to intentional ignoring. I can never really pass up a reason to vote Joseph, but I'm trying to be a better person.

As for Calamitas, perhaps I'm finally in a game again with the one person around here who's still less fond of making D1 reads than I am :-P I'm sure if we get a good converastion on probabilities of role distributions going, Camamitas and I will have a lot more to contribute...
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #228 on: May 22, 2020, 07:07:04 am »

Ok, really the only people who haven't commented directly on Joseph and/or his wagon are e, Space, and Calamitas, and I'm inclined to think that's as much due to their inactivity (>24 hours since last post for all 3) than to any intentional ignoring.

Mine is partly due to intentional ignoring. I can never really pass up a reason to vote Joseph, but I'm trying to be a better person.

As for Calamitas, perhaps I'm finally in a game again with the one person around here who's still less fond of making D1 reads than I am :-P I'm sure if we get a good converastion on probabilities of role distributions going, Camamitas and I will have a lot more to contribute...
Can you work out the probabilities and expected number of each PR in the game?
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Joseph2302

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #229 on: May 22, 2020, 07:33:19 am »

Also it's only about 50 hours until the deadline
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #230 on: May 22, 2020, 07:34:19 am »

Also it's only about 50 hours until the deadline
Less than that, 46.5 (the time was converting to local time which confused me)
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #231 on: May 22, 2020, 07:50:57 am »

Also it's only about 50 hours until the deadline

Who do you think is scum?
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #232 on: May 22, 2020, 08:29:46 am »

Vote Count 1.5

Joseph2302 (3): A Drowned Kernel, yuma, LaLight
mail-mi (1): 2.71828.....
scolapasta (2): mail-mi, Calamitas
A Drowned Kernel (1): Swowl
Calamitas (1): scolapasta
2.71828..... (1): SpaceAnemone
yuma (1): WestCoastDidds

Not Voting (2): Joseph2302, Dylan32

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 ends May 24, 2020, 06:00:00 am, which is in ~45.5 hours.
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #233 on: May 22, 2020, 08:48:22 am »

i think that scum actively ignores Joseph wagon, as it doesn't build as fast as it could have.

I'll return to vote: Joseph

I'll admit, that's an interesting point. Is there anyone who jumped on the scola wagon but has totally ignored the Joseph wagon? And I do mean ignored, not stood against it like llama, some bird, and me.  Because you could have a point that if scum did jump on a big wagon like scola's quickly and without much support earlier, they might be a bit more hesitant to jump on the next wagon that builds, but they wouldn't want to vocally oppose it in order to keep the door open to join it later or hammer at EoD.

Further, if I happen to be right, it doesn't imply Joseph is scum. It just means scum didn't want to look too eager to jump from fast growing L-1 reaching wagon to the next fastest growing wagon, so voting Joseph doesn't necessarily follow from the idea of scum ignoring his wagon unless you think it's motivated more by avoiding a wagon on a partner than avoiding looking scummy.

exactly
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #234 on: May 22, 2020, 09:04:32 am »

I have many adventures planned for today! First, we are going to a distillery in the hill country to do see if we can get hold of a couple of bottles of a special release of double barreled bourbon which is sweet and amazing and OMG, y’all. Cross your fingers they have some lef when we get there!

Then we are going to a winery down the road from the distillery for a picnic. And day drinking.

Then I’m assuming I’ll need a nap.

All of which is to say 1. Alcohol tourism is a thing, 2. Day drinking= naps, and 3. I’ll be around tonight but I’m not sure how much I’ll be around before then.
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #235 on: May 22, 2020, 10:12:59 am »

Can you work out the probabilities and expected number of each PR in the game?

I have a list from 3.5 years ago of each possible role combination, along with the likelihood of each one being roled, and the number of ways each combination could end up occurring (e.g. several ways because of the "W" rolls). Assuming I was correct back then, and that this set-up is the same as that one, then I can indeed work out all sorts of probability-based things with very little extra effort :-)

The fun things to do are to look at how likely various claims are, and to look at how compatible different pairs/combinations of claims are. The conditional probability of role X existing given what we know publicly from flips and privately from our own roles is pretty useful, so I think I'll keep from spamming the thread too early on with useless marginal probabilities that are probably most interesting for scum who want to breadcrumb a fakeclaim early.
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Joseph2302

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #236 on: May 22, 2020, 10:13:23 am »

Also it's only about 50 hours until the deadline

Who do you think is scum?
Never know D1
Some of the lurkiness has to be scumminess though I think
Surely town would be wanting to pick up the pace of this game?

PPE: 1
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #237 on: May 22, 2020, 12:03:30 pm »

Also it's only about 50 hours until the deadline

Who do you think is scum?
Never know D1
Some of the lurkiness has to be scumminess though I think
Surely town would be wanting to pick up the pace of this game?

PPE: 1

So town should try to pick up the pace of the game but you have zero reads that you want to share?
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Joseph2302

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #238 on: May 22, 2020, 01:32:33 pm »

Also it's only about 50 hours until the deadline

Who do you think is scum?
Never know D1
Some of the lurkiness has to be scumminess though I think
Surely town would be wanting to pick up the pace of this game?

PPE: 1

So town should try to pick up the pace of the game but you have zero reads that you want to share?
I think I don't trust any of the lurkers (e, Space, Calamitas) right now
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mail-mi

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #239 on: May 22, 2020, 01:38:11 pm »

Vote Count 1.5

Joseph2302 (3): A Drowned Kernel, yuma, LaLight
mail-mi (1): 2.71828.....
scolapasta (2): mail-mi, Calamitas
A Drowned Kernel (1): Swowl
Calamitas (1): scolapasta
2.71828..... (1): SpaceAnemone
yuma (1): WestCoastDidds

Not Voting (2): Joseph2302, Dylan32

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 ends May 24, 2020, 06:00:00 am, which is in ~45.5 hours.

From looking at your account, it seems like your wagons are quite dispersed for how close you are to deadline. You might want to consider cosolidating, especially away from those that are town. Would you be willing to consider scola or calamitas?
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #240 on: May 22, 2020, 01:50:39 pm »

Also it's only about 50 hours until the deadline

Who do you think is scum?
Never know D1
Some of the lurkiness has to be scumminess though I think
Surely town would be wanting to pick up the pace of this game?

PPE: 1

So town should try to pick up the pace of the game but you have zero reads that you want to share?
I think I don't trust any of the lurkers (e, Space, Calamitas) right now

Player post counts:
   25 Joseph2302
   22 WestCoastDidds
   17 mail-mi
   16 Yuma
   16 LaLight
   16 A Drowned Kernel
   14 scolapasta
   13 Swowl
   12 Calamitas
   11 SpaceAnemone
   10 Dylan32
   4 2.71828.....

Conclusions:
1. You're oddly missing Dylan in the "lurkers list".
2. There's virtually nothing between Calamitas and scola or Swowl.
3. I've posted less than I feel like I have.
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #241 on: May 22, 2020, 01:59:37 pm »

I think I don't trust any of the lurkers (e, Space, Calamitas) right now

I was the one to point out how under-the-radar e was being earlier, and that seems like something I wouldn't do with a partner. Also I'm voting for him right now, though I'm re-reading a few people right now, so that may change in a bit..
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #242 on: May 22, 2020, 01:59:50 pm »

Also it's only about 50 hours until the deadline

Who do you think is scum?
Never know D1
Some of the lurkiness has to be scumminess though I think
Surely town would be wanting to pick up the pace of this game?

PPE: 1

So town should try to pick up the pace of the game but you have zero reads that you want to share?
I think I don't trust any of the lurkers (e, Space, Calamitas) right now

Player post counts:
   25 Joseph2302
   22 WestCoastDidds
   17 mail-mi
   16 Yuma
   16 LaLight
   16 A Drowned Kernel
   14 scolapasta
   13 Swowl
   12 Calamitas
   11 SpaceAnemone
   10 Dylan32
   4 2.71828.....

Conclusions:
1. You're oddly missing Dylan in the "lurkers list".
2. There's virtually nothing between Calamitas and scola or Swowl.
3. I've posted less than I feel like I have.

Hello, and thank you for calling the Lynch CompanyTM. Before we connect you with a live associate, we'd like to inform you that the Lynch CompanyTM is in support of (or at least not opposed to) any lynch from scola down to the bottom. Please hold for the next available associate.
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Joseph2302

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #243 on: May 22, 2020, 02:03:52 pm »

Also it's only about 50 hours until the deadline

Who do you think is scum?
Never know D1
Some of the lurkiness has to be scumminess though I think
Surely town would be wanting to pick up the pace of this game?

PPE: 1

So town should try to pick up the pace of the game but you have zero reads that you want to share?
I think I don't trust any of the lurkers (e, Space, Calamitas) right now

Player post counts:
   25 Joseph2302
   22 WestCoastDidds
   17 mail-mi
   16 Yuma
   16 LaLight
   16 A Drowned Kernel
   14 scolapasta
   13 Swowl
   12 Calamitas
   11 SpaceAnemone
   10 Dylan32
   4 2.71828.....

Conclusions:
1. You're oddly missing Dylan in the "lurkers list".
2. There's virtually nothing between Calamitas and scola or Swowl.
3. I've posted less than I feel like I have.
Any game where I'm the most active poster is worrying
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #244 on: May 22, 2020, 02:04:50 pm »

Another thought: who's likely to be around in the run-up to deadline?

Currently the players in timezones east of the Atlantic are me, Calamitas, LaLight, e and Joseph, so if the rest of you leave it up till crunch time, we're the people most likely to be able to push a lynch through at the last minute.
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #245 on: May 22, 2020, 02:08:40 pm »

1. You're oddly missing Dylan in the "lurkers list".

Dylan's at a low post count but his recent posts have substance. Joseph's at lot of posts but they're mostly empty. I don't think "lurking" is a good metric to use right now
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #246 on: May 22, 2020, 02:36:31 pm »

1. You're oddly missing Dylan in the "lurkers list".

Dylan's at a low post count but his recent posts have substance. Joseph's at lot of posts but they're mostly empty. I don't think "lurking" is a good metric to use right now

Thanks. My count is lower than I thought, but I didn't post until almost 3 pages into the game, so a lot of what I skipped was the hellos and rvs type stuff if I had to guess. I'm probably middle of the pack if you start counting from scola's rvs vote and consider that the end of the random beginning phases of the game.
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #247 on: May 22, 2020, 02:42:20 pm »

Honey-Do list a mile long i have been finishing, but i will be able to check in this evening, and I’ll be around all day tomorrow.
As for DL, space has a good point about who is gonna be around - and just to clarify that is like 3am my time, so i will likely not be around after T-3 hours to DL.
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #248 on: May 22, 2020, 03:08:29 pm »

i think that scum actively ignores Joseph wagon, as it doesn't build as fast as it could have.

I'll return to vote: Joseph

I'll admit, that's an interesting point. Is there anyone who jumped on the scola wagon but has totally ignored the Joseph wagon? And I do mean ignored, not stood against it like llama, some bird, and me.  Because you could have a point that if scum did jump on a big wagon like scola's quickly and without much support earlier, they might be a bit more hesitant to jump on the next wagon that builds, but they wouldn't want to vocally oppose it in order to keep the door open to join it later or hammer at EoD.

Further, if I happen to be right, it doesn't imply Joseph is scum. It just means scum didn't want to look too eager to jump from fast growing L-1 reaching wagon to the next fastest growing wagon, so voting Joseph doesn't necessarily follow from the idea of scum ignoring his wagon unless you think it's motivated more by avoiding a wagon on a partner than avoiding looking scummy.

exactly

By exactly, I'm assuming you mean you believe the scum's motivation to avoid Joseph is that he's their partner. Correct me if I'm wrong. I'll also note that I think the alternative is more likely in this case.
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #249 on: May 22, 2020, 03:09:32 pm »

I'll be awake at the deadline, but I don't know what is going on irl to know if I'll be online at that point or not, but I should be able to pay attention and be active throughout the day tomorrow at least.
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Forum Mafia Record - Wins: 14 - NM9, M97, RMM41, M99, M102, M104, M119, M126, RMM56, M133, M134, RMM58, RMM59, RMM61, RMM60; Losses 15 - RMM37, M89, M94, M95, M96, M100, RMM47 M109, M110, M120, M127, M129, M131, M132, M136; MVPs: 1 - NM9
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