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Author Topic: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Game over)  (Read 123481 times)

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Swowl

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #650 on: June 05, 2020, 05:36:09 pm »

Unvote

I mean, how about changing your vote to appease town rather than for what you think?

I have no problem with being at L-1.  I do pose some level of distraction and I think flipping green would clarify things for a lot of people.  I definitely don't want that to happen.

As Calamitas noted, compare my game with mail-mi.  Maybe I am scum (no), maybe mail-mi is scum (maybe?), maybe we both are scum (no). But the narrative for scum!mail-mi is better than the narrative for me being scum.

I feel like it’s you or yams, but beyond that I’m not so clear.

Calam asked someone to unvote for a minute, and with so much time left in the day, I think it was a fair request.

I find it tremendously helpful when Swowl reads the game. But he doesn’t really draw any conclusions. Alas

Just to clarify - I have some conclusions, I added in most of the non-accusatory one's. The reason I had not posted the conclusions I came too regarding who looks like skum were because there is no 1-outs... like they are all groupings, or in frustrating pairs. The only person that I was able to isolate out that I liked at the beginning of the day was E!, who was like immediately ran up to L-1... which made me uneasy, so I decided to hold off.

But for clarity...
I think there is 1-2 skum in: [LaLight, Calamitas, WCD]
I think there is 0-1 skum is in [MailMi, E!, Yuma]
- I find Yuma's Day 1 L-1 on Joseph far more towny than I find E!'s hammer, and I cannot get over the kill selection tonight in regards to MailMi. So from the second group I like E! the most by a mile.
- I also think it is boarder line impossible that both Yuma and E! are both skum (based on end of Day 1).
- I also think it is just under boarder line impossible that MM and E! are skum together at this point.
- So, as E! is my pref, I actually really like that lynch today because if E! flips over red that essentially clears Yuma in my mind. If he flips green... well then screw me and I would be back to a pool of [Yuma, MM] both of which I find far townier than E!.
- Or... they are all town and there is 2 skum in Group 1. However, I think that is about as likely as MM and E! being skum together.

So most likely, imo, 1 skum in group 1 and 1 skum in group 2. I have a preference for E in group 2, and I am like exactly even across the board on group 1. So I am inclined to look at group 2, and therefore my inclination is E! for today.
Somebody wants to throw a wrench in any of that logic though, please feel free. I have looked at it to death at this point.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #651 on: June 05, 2020, 05:51:00 pm »

Whew! I’m glad I’m not the only one going around in circles.
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #652 on: June 05, 2020, 06:01:04 pm »

Whew! I’m glad I’m not the only one going around in circles.

I mean TBF... only kind of circles. My conclusion right now is I wanna lynch E!. I do not see myself changing my mind off of them onto Yuma or MM. And I would have to have a case presented, or come across one myself, that is stronger than my reasons for E! for an individual within [WCD, Calam, LL] for me to go there today. And I have looked, and while I have my preference there... it is close... and they are also both still irritatingly tied to E!.

So just being clear - I want to lynch E!. I just also do not want the day to end like 2 IRL days in, so I did not/am not currently voting at all.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #653 on: June 05, 2020, 06:08:24 pm »

Yep, yep...

I agree on e. I think when the three wagons were e, yams, and Dylan there was scum among those three. And I am more convinced now that we know Dylan is town.

The space kill makes Calamitas or LL more suspicious since they likely would find her more dangerous they ADK. I think that you, me, yams, and ADK would have all killed ADK. E likely too, but I think/know he’s more up for a hairbrained scheme than most.

Yuma is a phantom for me. I don’t know him well enough or have played with him enough to have any sense of what is scummy or not.
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Swowl

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #654 on: June 05, 2020, 06:26:53 pm »

Why did the speed of this go down so much. Why is e so silent given they are basically on the brink of being lynched?
Gonna go ahead and guess it had to do with the E! wagon getting run up so quickly.

Honestly, I am not a fan of this whole "there got to be scum off/on wagon" thingy. That is not a good style to scumread individiuals.
This is a fair point to an extent. You should not "skum read" individuals based on VCA. However, I will argue that "the on wagon off wagon thingy" WHEN WE ACTUALLY LYNCHED SKUM DAY 1... is kind of unarguably a good metric to use to attempt to create pools of potential team mates.

I think mail-mi hesitating to lynch Dylan is evidence of him being scum. If they were town they would have been a tad more eager to just lynch Dylan I think than if they knew of their towniness.
More importantly, they decided to go onto hammer the wagon that had E! on it, who is who they were pushing all day. Which is weird. and I get that.. but then see below...


I don't like e's play yesterday. As he said, he was in full tunnel vision but that might actually be because he and mail-mi are scum together or so and he had to fight really hard to get mail-mi over Dylan. I think I still prefer mail-mi over e in direct lynch comparision because
a) in the scenario where both are scum it doesn't matter
b) in the scenario where e is scum and mail-mi is town, e can be fine pushing less because it was clear one of them will be the target given what almost everyone stated
c) in the scenario where e is town and mail-mi is scum, his tunnel vision still makes sense
Thus, I put more probability mass on c) than on b).

Your ABCs here are like solid in thought. But you gotta ask yourself - If MM is skum, why would they kill Space? I know I have brought that up already, but I am actually asking you in regards to specifically your ABCs above here. Like regardless of whether or not you put merit into the one off one on concept, it was clearly stated to be the state of mind of a lot of players in the game. So...

a) They are both skum. Space is killed. Creates a pool of everyone's favorite choice [E!], a pool of [MailMi, Swan], and then then like [Calam, WCD, LL, Yuma]. This is the point I was kind of referring to in my previous post. This is actually possibly an explanation for the kill choice. They both go for one and other in hopes of giving mass town cred to the other.. I guess. But I mean there would be too many Town players alive for the survivor to avoid suspicion of being alive for the rest of the game... so it is a long shot.

b) E is skum, MM is Town. OK... I know I am town, and the kill choice then creates a field of MM/Swan (town, town), E (skum), and [WCD, Calam, LL, Yuma] (2 town, 1 skum). That is a pretty damn good spot for E to put them plus whoever from [WCD, Calam, LL, Yuma] is skum in.




*** "C" here is now it's own separate point I just came to while i was thinking out loud responding to this ***
c) I actually am slightly potentially changing my mind as I type this one up... MM skum, E Town. MM is then skum with one of [Calam, WCD, LL, Yuma]. Doesn't really make sense for them to isolate themselves into a pool with just me if they are skum... but, and this is what I just thought of right now... it could make sense if they come out with a sequence of let's say..
1) voting for Swowl
2) realizing that doesn't make sense, pointing out why, in attempts to remove both of us from selection
3) moving it to someone else, like E!.
That would make skum team MM+ one of [Calam, WCD, LL, Yuma]. So... plan would of been like... lynch E, kill within the second group, and set up for the long game 2v1. Does that parse?
I missed this while being wrapped up in doing the VCA. This could actually be a thing. Maybe.

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yuma

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #655 on: June 05, 2020, 07:50:36 pm »

I am getting on tonight to do a thorough reread and catch up. This COVID surge is kicking my butt. But a weekend to be on and around should get me back in the game. I may or may not be flying kites tonight... we will see...
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #656 on: June 05, 2020, 08:00:35 pm »

I am getting on tonight to do a thorough reread and catch up. This COVID surge is kicking my butt. But a weekend to be on and around should get me back in the game. I may or may not be flying kites tonight... we will see...

After this week, for sho. Meet you there
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yuma

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #657 on: June 06, 2020, 01:40:39 am »

Honestly, I am not a fan of this whole "there got to be scum off/on wagon" thingy. That is not a good style to scumread individiuals.

ALL OF THIS!
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yuma

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #658 on: June 06, 2020, 01:50:44 am »

I mean, swowl has a good post, I like a lot of what he said.

Yuma, what do you think of that post?  WCD?  LaLight?

Man. I just skimmed it... now I have to go carefully read the whole thing?

Fine.

I guess my first question is why ADK is in green? Did I completely miss that he is IC, cause I was pretty sure he was just strong town? But I could have totally missed that if I didn't see a post about it.

I like his analysis of the situation, but in some sense feel similarly about it the way I do about Calam's and my argument about using on/off wagons to try and determine who scum is. Maybe it is somewhat different as it analyzes using different interactions throughout the day instead of the final picture. And it is a data point, but I don't think it is the sole data point.

The third point I guess I don't completely see the "likely there is scum" between LL and e. I see them both more suspiciously but feel there isn't a connection between the two that correlates. Why is WCDs not in this bucket?

So overall, I like this thoughts about individuals, but don't know that I agree with the buckets he is making.

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yuma

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #659 on: June 06, 2020, 01:58:29 am »

My vote on e didn't garnish the reactions I had hoped it would. The game kinda paused time wise and some players weren't on at all (no judgement, I wasn't on either) immediately after that and it made reading the reactions harder.

Calam's response was the strongest, but was very null. Maybe L-1 doesn't have the importance it used to?
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yuma

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #660 on: June 06, 2020, 01:59:47 am »

Oh ADK claimed UB. I spaced that.
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yuma

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #661 on: June 06, 2020, 02:00:14 am »

Although space would have remembered that.... Sorry space!
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yuma

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #662 on: June 06, 2020, 02:12:20 am »

So I just reread mail-mi mostly to try and remember what I found scummy from him on Day1 and early Day2 and then noticed something.

At the time that mail-mi was getting a wagon built on him he did two things at the same time. Tunneled hard on e and softly defend Dylan until it wasn't convenient.

-snip-

I love how e is absent most of D1, comes in and immediately starts pushing away from Joseph (in fact inventing a new wagon to do so at a time when things were starting to consolidate a bit), hammers in a noncommittal tone for the sake of getting a lynch (which is NAI), then comes out D2 claiming psuedo-IC for the hammer and throwing shade at people who didn't like the D1 Joseph wagon without so much as a shred of acknowledgement that he did the same thing but was lucky enough to be online at the deadline in order to hammer and get himself on wagon.

Vote: e

I mean, obvious (and valid) points, I only take umbrage with the fact that I was lucky to be online at deadline.

In fact, had I been scum I could very well have been lucky enough to not be online.

There is the angle that I saw the inevitable and went for the town cred after an abysmal D1. And sure. I deserve that. But I will try to do better today.

Here's dylan's case, and I think it's stronger than people are making it out to be. I can also see e coming out of a taxing scum game (Falling Skies) and rolling scum again and not being super excited about it, which explains some of his lack of substance day 1.

Also, I think you were "lucky enough" to be online to take the hammer and get the towncred, as you say. You could have been lucky enough to be offline, but then someone else would almost definitely hammer, considering how close we were to deadline.

No, this case:

Let's compare the cases:


scum!e.case) e is basically absent D1 (4 posts prior to the day end burst of activity), has an RVS vote on mail-mi. When e does show up he doesn't like a Joseph lynch and creates an alternative wagon on WCD because he doesn't like the Joseph lynch. non-committal hammer on Joseph feels like a town-cred grab rather than actual townie vote.

scum!Dylan.case) Dylan is relatively active (25 posts on D1), and is consistently anti-Joseph lynch. RVS vote on LL (seems pretty townie) (and all votes do count, say what you want about RVS), creates a wagon on pasta (town), eventually unvotes and doesn't vote again until he jumps on the first pseudo-viable wagon (WCD)

Regarding the WCD wagon.  Scum does not typically create a random wagon at the end of the day on someone they know will likely not get lynched.  Rather, scum jumps on an alternative wagon that they think could be potentially viable when they get the chance.  Dylan had already unvoted pasta earlier in the day and may have felt that re-voting there would be too much of a flip-flop, so when WCD appeared as an option he jumped at the opportunity. Of course, Dylan does end up going back to scolapasta (because of this?). And I end up hammering scum.
This Dylan case. RVS votes do matter, but eh not enough to sway one way or the other. I can also feel for Dylan because I too was townreading Joseph. So I think the case isn't bad, and he's probably my second or third preferred lynch, but also not the strongest case in the world.

At the time Dylan is voting e with mail-mi. So if mail-mi is scum it makes sense to softly buddy and white knight the other person voting with you.

A bit later I voted mail-mi with Calam and a couple others had expressed interest he is suddenly very much willing to vote for Dylan.

Of course to an extent this relies on the idea of e being town and not scum as I don't see the interaction between the two of them as scum. That just seems like something that wouldn't happen as scum, and I am not sure I think mail-mi is more scummy than e.

Need to think.
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yuma

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #663 on: June 06, 2020, 02:13:20 am »

Did some rereading of D2 in particular and I think that I'm ok with

vote: Dylan

This is L-1

I'm good with a Dylan lynch. I mean, from my perspective it's either him or Swowl (or both) and as of now I don't have a preference on either one.

Consider this an Intent to hammer to encourage a claim.
What about e?

I still have a scumread on e but he has to have a partner somewhere, and I'm 100% sure that the remaining 2 scum were not both on-wagon.
Also a 100% sure?
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yuma

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #664 on: June 06, 2020, 02:15:30 am »

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yuma

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #665 on: June 06, 2020, 02:16:34 am »

hell

I'm extremely frustrated. vote: Calamitas , I guess
What. This is insane.
Just getting better.
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yuma

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #666 on: June 06, 2020, 02:20:48 am »

OK. I reread myself into a vote: mail-mi. e from today actually read townier on the second read. Especially this post:

Well, my terrible D1 was followed by what I thought was a great D2 until the flip happened.

Vote: mail-mi

Case on me is basically the D1 hammer was a ruse and D2 was focused on a mislynch?

If you think I'm scum, you have to ask why I killed Space. it puts me in a 1v1 with Swowl and 9 times out of 10 I get lynched before swowl (which is a point for swowl's scumminess, I guess). There's no reasonable scum tactic there.

That was clever of you, wasn't it?

You think I am scum, you have to ask why I set myself up to be the #1 lynch option for today. There was no reason for me to goad you into the hammer. There was no reason for me to consistently and thoroughly build the case on Dylan after I saw it take off. I could take a break! Relax! My top two mislynch wagons (if mail-mi is town as he claims) were rolling along nicely.

No, I had just caught the tunnel vision because I got excited about a scum Lynch and thought I had solved the game! Hooray for me!

(Spoilers: I didn't)
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Swowl

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #667 on: June 06, 2020, 02:23:30 am »

I mean, swowl has a good post, I like a lot of what he said.

Yuma, what do you think of that post?  WCD?  LaLight?

Man. I just skimmed it... now I have to go carefully read the whole thing?

The third point I guess I don't completely see the "likely there is scum" between LL and e. I see them both more suspiciously but feel there isn't a connection between the two that correlates. Why is WCDs not in this bucket?

So overall, I like this thoughts about individuals, but don't know that I agree with the buckets he is making.

don't... think.. I ever said likely skum "between LL and E"? MM and E yeah... do I have a typo somewhere? LL is in my pool 1, E is in my pool 2.
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #668 on: June 06, 2020, 02:37:30 am »

Ok so you think E! is towny, why to you does that mean it is MM?
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #669 on: June 06, 2020, 08:15:50 am »

unvote
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yuma

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #670 on: June 06, 2020, 02:10:25 pm »

Phone posting is hard. But this is a quote from your ling post

" E and LL were on Dylan from the get go for literally the entire day. Day 2 specific read would be I think it is likely there is skum in those 2" in point 2
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #671 on: June 06, 2020, 02:12:40 pm »

Ok so you think E! is towny, why to you does that mean it is MM?
I combined my thoughts into that one post in an unclear way. Sorr.

My reread of mail-mi reminded me of my scumread on him from yesterday, added in impressions of his actions later day2 given Dylan's flip and what I saw from e earlier today read as more townie... more from the tone than content, so that is worth moving for.
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #672 on: June 06, 2020, 07:38:25 pm »

Did some rereading of D2 in particular and I think that I'm ok with

vote: Dylan

This is L-1

I'm good with a Dylan lynch. I mean, from my perspective it's either him or Swowl (or both) and as of now I don't have a preference on either one.

Consider this an Intent to hammer to encourage a claim.
What about e?

I still have a scumread on e but he has to have a partner somewhere, and I'm 100% sure that the remaining 2 scum were not both on-wagon.
Also a 100% sure?

At that point I was 100% sure. Then Dylan flipped town and Space was killed at night. Now I'm not 100% sure (and as you can see, I'm inclined to think that both scum were on wagon at this point.)
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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #673 on: June 06, 2020, 07:41:20 pm »

So I just reread mail-mi mostly to try and remember what I found scummy from him on Day1 and early Day2 and then noticed something.

At the time that mail-mi was getting a wagon built on him he did two things at the same time. Tunneled hard on e and softly defend Dylan until it wasn't convenient.

At the time Dylan is voting e with mail-mi. So if mail-mi is scum it makes sense to softly buddy and white knight the other person voting with you.

A bit later I voted mail-mi with Calam and a couple others had expressed interest he is suddenly very much willing to vote for Dylan.

Of course to an extent this relies on the idea of e being town and not scum as I don't see the interaction between the two of them as scum. That just seems like something that wouldn't happen as scum, and I am not sure I think mail-mi is more scummy than e.

Need to think.

At the time I was scumreading e. (still am, in fact.) I was less convinced of dylan's scumminess than I was of e's scumminess. I never had a townread on dylan on D2, just not as strong of a scum read. And turns out, we should have stuck with e.
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I currently imagine mail-mi wearing a dark trenchcoat and a bowler hat, hunched over a bit, toothpick in his mouth, holding a gun in his pocket.  One bead of sweat trickling down his nose.

'And what is it that ye shall hope for? Behold I say unto you that ye shall have hope through the atonement of Christ and the power of his resurrection, to be raised unto life eternal, and this because of your faith in him according to the promise." - Moroni 7:41, the Book of Mormon

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Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #674 on: June 07, 2020, 01:36:14 am »

Did some rereading of D2 in particular and I think that I'm ok with

vote: Dylan

This is L-1

I'm good with a Dylan lynch. I mean, from my perspective it's either him or Swowl (or both) and as of now I don't have a preference on either one.

Consider this an Intent to hammer to encourage a claim.
What about e?

I still have a scumread on e but he has to have a partner somewhere, and I'm 100% sure that the remaining 2 scum were not both on-wagon.
Also a 100% sure?

At that point I was 100% sure. Then Dylan flipped town and Space was killed at night. Now I'm not 100% sure (and as you can see, I'm inclined to think that both scum were on wagon at this point.)
Ok
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