Dominion Strategy Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Pages: 1 ... 17 18 [19] 20 21 ... 47  All

Author Topic: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Game over)  (Read 123455 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

2.71828.....

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1290
  • Shuffle iT Username: irrationalE
    • View Profile
Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #450 on: May 27, 2020, 08:02:41 am »

I am super confused by e, their argument against me doesn't make sense in the slightest? As I stated, I think all three of Dylan, mail-mi and swowl are scummy and thought the mail-mi case to be a bit stronger. It's not like Dylan is orders of magnitude scummier than mail-mi; if so please analyse them side-by-side and tell me why.

I think mail-mi and Dylan are both scummy (if not both scum)

Quote
All my actions are extremely clear from my town perspective. As I said, I didn't think Josephs stuff was alignment indicative. Joseph does weird stuff all the time. Thus I did nullread him but stated (or at least thought when Space was posting similar stuff, I didn't want to insult Joseph at the time) from the very beginning onwards that Joseph is one of the better misslynchs and thus my favourite target from the nullread people. This is very much my style in every single game, you modded XKCD mafia. I am absolutely terrible at making reads D1 and base my decisions on general principles and sometimes single posts I think are somewhat indicative as I judge basically everything as null D1.

Before I went to bed, I did the action that would most likely ensure a lynch and it did as town!me would do every single time there.
Which is why my scum read on you has significantly lessened over the course of the morning, I just kept you in the scummy(ish) category because of my reactions earlier in D2

Quote
Then on D2, I re-read, saw Dylan's scummy post, noticed it and made a quick comment before going offline to . If you don't think I am more likely to do that as town then you are clearly miss-calibrated. While continuing to read, I saw more stuff indicating Dylan but also saw a potentially coherent town-narrative. Some posts felt genuine to me. I stand by my case made and it's as comprehensive as anything I have seen in this game.

Mail-mi does stuff very similar to Dylan and as I wanted to leave a vote before going offline for some time, I voted mail-mi as expressed in #406. I explicitly stated that I don't have a strong preference, note the "I think", "for now", "also don't like" as I didn't have the time to carefully weigh the evidence against all parties involved. 

I really don't get why you are so confident that mail-mi is town and Dylan scum. I am genuinely uncertain who is more likely out of those two to be scum and I think I have presented two good cases.

I feel like you read some of my earlier posts and missed the later ones. Or I wasn't clear. I do think both mail-mi and Dylan are scum. Or at least scummy.

I do need to reread Swowl though. Have not given them the attention they deserve.
Logged
Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

2.71828.....

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1290
  • Shuffle iT Username: irrationalE
    • View Profile
Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #451 on: May 27, 2020, 08:06:03 am »

Current reads:

Scum tier
Dylan, mail-mi

Scummy(ish)
Calamitas

Merits a reread, I don't remember much about them
yuma, WCD, Swowl

Townie(ish)
Space, LaLight

Town
ADK, e
Btw, this table is not distinguishing between Dylan and mail-mi. A bit weird given that you think that the difference is so monumental to merit my being scummyish despite decidedly towny actions for my non-confident choice between the two *shrug

Let me change my categories, see if it clarifies.

Want to lynch: Dylan, mail-mi
Would participate in a lynch: calamitas, Yuma, WCD, Swowl
Don't want to Lynch: space, LaLight
Would not Lynch: ADK, e

I feel like Swowl has the greatest potential to move up to the want to lynch category, especially after calamitas' last posts
Logged
Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

Calamitas

  • Tactician
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 407
  • Shuffle iT Username: Calamitas
    • View Profile
Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #452 on: May 27, 2020, 08:12:33 am »

Let me change my categories, see if it clarifies.

Want to lynch: Dylan, mail-mi
Would participate in a lynch: calamitas, Yuma, WCD, Swowl
Don't want to Lynch: space, LaLight
Would not Lynch: ADK, e

I feel like Swowl has the greatest potential to move up to the want to lynch category, especially after calamitas' last posts
Okay, so we actually don't disagree on much. My categories are

Want to lynch today: Mail-mi, Dylan
Might be next-in-line: Yuma, Swowl, e
Null: WCD, LaLight
Town: Space
IC: ADK
Logged
Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

Calamitas

  • Tactician
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 407
  • Shuffle iT Username: Calamitas
    • View Profile
Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #453 on: May 27, 2020, 08:24:20 am »

That was a knee jerk reaction. Just so there isn't any dumb confusion, I'm the UB

Interesting. Theres no point in claiming this if ADK is scum, so they're definitely town. And it seems I was wrong about Joseph.


I think you're reading too much into this specific post.
I am still curious, what were your thoughts in the moment you were writing this?
Logged
Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

Calamitas

  • Tactician
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 407
  • Shuffle iT Username: Calamitas
    • View Profile
Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #454 on: May 27, 2020, 08:29:39 am »

Day 1 Final Vote Count

Joseph2302 (7): A Drowned Kernel, LaLight, WestCoastDidds, Calamitas, scolapasta, yuma, 2.71828.....
scolapasta (3): Dylan32, mail-mi, Swowl
2.71828..... (1): SpaceAnemone
WestCoastDidds (1): Joseph2302

Not Voting (0):

With 12 alive, it took 7 to lynch. Twilight begins now and lasts until May 24, 2020, 03:30:00 pm.

Here's the final vote count from yesterday, color-coded for people we know are town/scum. This analysis will be based on simply the vote count and what I remember from yesterday, with more details (hopefully) to come.

We're looking at 2 more scum. I think it's unlikely that both of them are on scola, but I think one of them is. So I think there's definitely scum in [mail-mi, Swowl, Dylan32]. From my perspective, there's scum in [Swowl, Dylan32]. Honorable mention goes to Space.

There's a lot of players on Joseph (6, actually). ADK is obv!town, if he's scum, gg. I think LaLight was on Joseph the whole day, which is a ballsy scum move if they're scum, so I think I'm handing them townpoints for it. WCD got some heat yesterday and I think her reaction to it was townie. I found Calamitas scummy yesterday, and this isn't a bad bussing spot to be in, so minor scum points.

I think the 2 scummiest on the wagon are yuma and e, but I don't think it can be both of them.
 
Scum!yuma scenario: I can see scum!yuma coming in, voting Joseph to L-1, and hoping for a classic F.DS end-of-d1 scramble to lynch someone else, then town!e hammers and crushes all of scum!yuma's dreams.

Scum!e scenario: Exactly what e himself described: going for the hammer on his buddy for a last-ditch attempt at towncred after being absent for most of D1.

Hm, now that I'm thinking about this, I think I'm starting to agree with Dylan on e. I need to do a reread, but let's not forget that e came in in the middle of the day (when the competing wagons were still scola and Joseph) and tried to start a whole new thing on WCD, which Joseph latched onto (as well as Swowl). I would not be surprised at and am currently calling a Swowl/e/Joseph scumteam.

vote: e
I am not convinced at all by this analysis. This is just some talk about wagons instead of doing a real analysis on the scummy people. He says Dylan or Swowl is scum but neither analyses them nor votes for either.

I stand by my vote for now.
Logged
Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

SpaceAnemone

  • Thief
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 91
  • Shuffle iT Username: SpaceAnemone
  • Correct Horse Battery Staple
    • View Profile
Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #455 on: May 27, 2020, 09:44:07 am »

Swowl, you made a long post last night (overnight my time) looking at Joseph's L-1ing of Scola. Five posts before that, I'd looked at exactly the same wagon, made other suggestions and come to different conclusions. You didn't mention my post in yours... do you agree with any of it at all?

In particular:
1) I believe that the reason he tried to set this up was to get town to make a mistake with a quick hammer. The day was dragging on, moving slowly, and just kind of the only situation in which town may actually consider doing it. Not the best theory, but IDK how many other reasons there could be.

The reasoning I based my thoughts around was exactly that I think he was expecting an off-wagon scumbuddy to come in and hammer, especially because he hinted at having been looking at who was watching the thread. Isn't that something that might be really quite plausible? I think Joseph is aware that scum likes coordinated quickhammers (albeit ignoring the fact that that's mostly at mylo etc!) and was trying to set something up so that one of his buddies could swoop in and hammer before any townies got cold feet. Yes, it's definitely sub-optimal play, as others have already pointed out, but it feels very much like the sort of scheme Joseph woudl try.

The difference our two sets of assumptions makes to the rest of the reasoning isn't huge, in that both scenarios allow for one-off, one-on as far as scum and the scola wagon goes. However, it feels quite weird that you posted your whole analysis without commenting that it was the opposite assumption to the one I'd just posted.
Logged
Congratulations! Your SpaceAnemone evolved into UniverseAnemone!
Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

SpaceAnemone

  • Thief
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 91
  • Shuffle iT Username: SpaceAnemone
  • Correct Horse Battery Staple
    • View Profile
Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #456 on: May 27, 2020, 09:49:54 am »

Let me change my categories, see if it clarifies.

Want to lynch: Dylan, mail-mi
Would participate in a lynch: calamitas, Yuma, WCD, Swowl
Don't want to Lynch: space, LaLight
Would not Lynch: ADK, e

I feel like Swowl has the greatest potential to move up to the want to lynch category, especially after calamitas' last posts
Okay, so we actually don't disagree on much. My categories are

Want to lynch today: Mail-mi, Dylan
Might be next-in-line: Yuma, Swowl, e
Null: WCD, LaLight
Town: Space
IC: ADK

I'm happy to see that you two are getting along :-)

I feel like Yuma is high on both lists, and yet he isn't someone we've seen a lot of cases or discussion on, compared to Mail-mi, Dylan, Swowl or e. I know I said that his Joseph-wagon pattern looked a bit iffy, but has anyone else posted a case? If not, how is he so high on both your lists?
Logged
Congratulations! Your SpaceAnemone evolved into UniverseAnemone!
Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

Calamitas

  • Tactician
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 407
  • Shuffle iT Username: Calamitas
    • View Profile
Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #457 on: May 27, 2020, 09:54:54 am »

vote: joseph just so we actually get a lynch.
I am confused by this. I just re-read yuma, they (he?she?)
1) pointed out Joseph was scummy
2) forgot to vote for him
3) then said it should gain traction
4) moved (though not just out of not-traction if I see it correctly)
5)Voted Joseph "so we actually get a lynch"
Yuma scumread Joseph hard most of the day, this statement sounds too weak for me
@Space
Logged
Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

WestCoastDidds

  • Ambassador
  • ***
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 33
  • Shuffle iT Username: WestCoastDidds
  • Didds, ya'll
    • View Profile
Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #458 on: May 27, 2020, 09:57:42 am »

I have to get to work in a few minutes, but I wanted to collect my thoughts first.

I appreciate that e is participating more.  It either means he is super-awesome-town e or holy-cow-Joseph-got-lynhced- we-better fing-go-scum. I lean toward the former, but you never know.

Mail-mi and Dylan look the worst after yesterday. I was especially perplexed by yams voting for me...it was a weird group of people to follow.  But Dylan seems overall more shady. I think I will vote for one of them today.

I was also perplexed when yuma did it since a few posts before he had me in a "what did my most town read friends think" post. So, he's more suspicious than null. Swowl is my last big question mark.... I have become accustomed to us standing close together because we were partners in a long game, and he knows me pretty well.  But I am also aware that it would take very little effort on his part to buddy me up, and have it be totally successful. 

I see space, calam, and LL as more towny, but that could also just be because the attention has been elsewhere.

Okay, more later
Logged
classic Diddsian meddling
I never got to read what Didds said, but whatever she's saying, she's right.

mail-mi

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1298
  • Shuffle iT Username: mail-mi
  • Come play some Forum Mafia with us!
    • View Profile
Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #459 on: May 27, 2020, 10:42:36 am »

Vote Count 1.7

Joseph2302 (4): A Drowned Kernel, LaLight, WestCoastDidds, Calamitas
scolapasta (2): mail-mi, Dylan32
A Drowned Kernel (1): Swowl
Calamitas (1): scolapasta
2.71828..... (1): SpaceAnemone
WestCoastDidds (3): 2.71828....., yuma, Joseph2302

Not Voting (0):

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 ends May 24, 2020, 06:00:00 am, which is in ~7 hours.

This is probably my last vote count for this in-game day and I have no idea where faust is, so here's my fair warning.

We regret to inform you that mail-mi will not be awake for deadline, but he will leave with a vote: WCD as a better alternative than Joseph.

This is a terrible idea.  I am town, and me getting lynched will start us off in the hole.

It may not be Joseph, but it sure as heck isn't me, and this last day pivot toward me with ZERO ARTICULATED REASON reeks of scumminess. 

I am heading to bed.  You can trust me or not, but remember all of this was started less than 7 hours ago.  The only way a wagon builds that fast and lands a town mislynch is a heap 'o scum joining in.

WCD is town. vote: scola

This little exchange is interesting.  Mail-mi jumping on and off WCD at a critical juncture.  I am starting to get much more suspicious of mail-mi than I was.

I was voting for WCD to see what she would do about a bigger wagon on her. I was still scumreading scola more, but I saw it as an opportunity to get some reactions. I felt her reaction was townie, so I switched back. I was not, as you say in a later post, "flip flopping to anyone but Joseph" at deadline, I was consistent on scola and went to WCD to get a reaction.
Logged
I currently imagine mail-mi wearing a dark trenchcoat and a bowler hat, hunched over a bit, toothpick in his mouth, holding a gun in his pocket.  One bead of sweat trickling down his nose.

'And what is it that ye shall hope for? Behold I say unto you that ye shall have hope through the atonement of Christ and the power of his resurrection, to be raised unto life eternal, and this because of your faith in him according to the promise." - Moroni 7:41, the Book of Mormon

mail-mi

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1298
  • Shuffle iT Username: mail-mi
  • Come play some Forum Mafia with us!
    • View Profile
Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #460 on: May 27, 2020, 10:45:49 am »

That was a knee jerk reaction. Just so there isn't any dumb confusion, I'm the UB

Interesting. Theres no point in claiming this if ADK is scum, so they're definitely town. And it seems I was wrong about Joseph.


I think you're reading too much into this specific post.
I am still curious, what were your thoughts in the moment you were writing this?

I'm not sure which post this question is referring to, so I'll answer it for both posts.

The post from D1: I was thinking that ADK was obvtown and I was wrong on Joseph.
The post from D2: I think you were reading too much into the specific wording of the post. And that I think much more about the exact words I post as scum, whereas when I'm town I just type what I'm thinking. So a strangely worded post should give you more of a townread on me, not scumread.
Logged
I currently imagine mail-mi wearing a dark trenchcoat and a bowler hat, hunched over a bit, toothpick in his mouth, holding a gun in his pocket.  One bead of sweat trickling down his nose.

'And what is it that ye shall hope for? Behold I say unto you that ye shall have hope through the atonement of Christ and the power of his resurrection, to be raised unto life eternal, and this because of your faith in him according to the promise." - Moroni 7:41, the Book of Mormon

mail-mi

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1298
  • Shuffle iT Username: mail-mi
  • Come play some Forum Mafia with us!
    • View Profile
Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #461 on: May 27, 2020, 10:47:48 am »


I am not convinced at all by this analysis. This is just some talk about wagons instead of doing a real analysis on the scummy people. He says Dylan or Swowl is scum but neither analyses them nor votes for either.

I stand by my vote for now.

Perhaps you didn't read my caveat at the beginning of the analysis? Here, let me quote it for you:

This analysis will be based on simply the vote count and what I remember from yesterday, with more details (hopefully) to come.

And as you can see in the post, I analyzed both the people on wagon and off wagon. I thought that e ended up being the scummiest, followed by swowl and dylan. I found myself agreeing with dylan's points on e, and so I decided to vote there. I mean, what more do you want?
Logged
I currently imagine mail-mi wearing a dark trenchcoat and a bowler hat, hunched over a bit, toothpick in his mouth, holding a gun in his pocket.  One bead of sweat trickling down his nose.

'And what is it that ye shall hope for? Behold I say unto you that ye shall have hope through the atonement of Christ and the power of his resurrection, to be raised unto life eternal, and this because of your faith in him according to the promise." - Moroni 7:41, the Book of Mormon

2.71828.....

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1290
  • Shuffle iT Username: irrationalE
    • View Profile
Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #462 on: May 27, 2020, 10:54:16 am »

I found myself agreeing with dylan's points on e, and so I decided to vote there.

What do you think of my case on Dylan?
Logged
Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

mail-mi

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1298
  • Shuffle iT Username: mail-mi
  • Come play some Forum Mafia with us!
    • View Profile
Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #463 on: May 27, 2020, 11:09:44 am »

Just a few of Dylan's posts:

Call me the shepherd, cuz I've apparently got a lot of sheep haha.

I voted scola for seeming to use a joke RVS vote to create an actual wagon on Joseph as the 3rd vote on the wagon. It was a real vote since my LL vote was clearly RVS and that was the first scummy thing I'd noticed, but I did not expect that to kick off a wagon with that little substance. I still stand by it being a slightly scummy post, so I'm leaving my vote for now, that was just unexpected to come back and see the wagon that blew up. I agree with Didds there was probably scum somewhere behind me on the wagon.

post noted by Calamitis as scummy

-snip-

I agree, I don't really think what Joseph did was scummy. I know I'm not the first to say this, but I'm more inclined to look at the people that are most focused on him instead.

ppe 1

Defending Joseph.  In fact, is very consistent in his defense of Joseph and never really even entertains the thought that Joseph is scum

So earlier I thought scum likely helped build momentum for the scola wagon, and I think scum would be likely to be pushing for Joseph to some extent. The pool of people who were in both those sets are ADK and LL.  I would vote for either equally, but for now since I don't think I've ever played with ADK, Vote: LL.

saying scum are people who voted for BOTH scola and Joseph.  One we know is town, one we know is scum.  Looking at this intersection and using it to vote for someone I think is interesting, and potentially scummy

ADK, swowl and west. You are my biggest town reads, who should we lynch?

I also am interested in Dylan's thoughts.

Based on last game, that means that's the scum team right? haha jk.  I think right now I'm still leaning scola for today. LL and ADK are options based on the wagon argument I had earlier. Agree town on the bird at least.

ppe 1

Joking about who the scum team is

I was about to post explaining a few more scum points I've given scola and vote there, but I after soloing WCD due to e's posts, I buy it enough to vote: WCD instead for now.

For the record, the short version is that scola's last 3 posts have basically been identical, and they've been such that one of them wouldn't really be scummy, but not contributing other content in between posts like them definitely is.

Jumping on a new alternative wagon to Joseph

This case? Let me respond to each individual point.

1. I agree that post is scummy, especially the "I don't like the wagon but I'm leaving my vote there anyway."
2. I mean, that's slightly scummy, but just as easy for town to do that as scum (See: me).
3. I agree with your statement there.
4. Not necessarily very scummy.
5. That's also not looking good.

So I think the case is pretty ok, and I would definitely switch there if necessary. Now let me go look more in depth at his case on you.
Logged
I currently imagine mail-mi wearing a dark trenchcoat and a bowler hat, hunched over a bit, toothpick in his mouth, holding a gun in his pocket.  One bead of sweat trickling down his nose.

'And what is it that ye shall hope for? Behold I say unto you that ye shall have hope through the atonement of Christ and the power of his resurrection, to be raised unto life eternal, and this because of your faith in him according to the promise." - Moroni 7:41, the Book of Mormon

mail-mi

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1298
  • Shuffle iT Username: mail-mi
  • Come play some Forum Mafia with us!
    • View Profile
Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #464 on: May 27, 2020, 11:14:41 am »

-snip-

I love how e is absent most of D1, comes in and immediately starts pushing away from Joseph (in fact inventing a new wagon to do so at a time when things were starting to consolidate a bit), hammers in a noncommittal tone for the sake of getting a lynch (which is NAI), then comes out D2 claiming psuedo-IC for the hammer and throwing shade at people who didn't like the D1 Joseph wagon without so much as a shred of acknowledgement that he did the same thing but was lucky enough to be online at the deadline in order to hammer and get himself on wagon.

Vote: e

I mean, obvious (and valid) points, I only take umbrage with the fact that I was lucky to be online at deadline.

In fact, had I been scum I could very well have been lucky enough to not be online.

There is the angle that I saw the inevitable and went for the town cred after an abysmal D1. And sure. I deserve that. But I will try to do better today.

Here's dylan's case, and I think it's stronger than people are making it out to be. I can also see e coming out of a taxing scum game (Falling Skies) and rolling scum again and not being super excited about it, which explains some of his lack of substance day 1.

Also, I think you were "lucky enough" to be online to take the hammer and get the towncred, as you say. You could have been lucky enough to be offline, but then someone else would almost definitely hammer, considering how close we were to deadline.
Logged
I currently imagine mail-mi wearing a dark trenchcoat and a bowler hat, hunched over a bit, toothpick in his mouth, holding a gun in his pocket.  One bead of sweat trickling down his nose.

'And what is it that ye shall hope for? Behold I say unto you that ye shall have hope through the atonement of Christ and the power of his resurrection, to be raised unto life eternal, and this because of your faith in him according to the promise." - Moroni 7:41, the Book of Mormon

2.71828.....

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1290
  • Shuffle iT Username: irrationalE
    • View Profile
Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #465 on: May 27, 2020, 11:22:52 am »

No, this case:

Let's compare the cases:


scum!e.case) e is basically absent D1 (4 posts prior to the day end burst of activity), has an RVS vote on mail-mi. When e does show up he doesn't like a Joseph lynch and creates an alternative wagon on WCD because he doesn't like the Joseph lynch. non-committal hammer on Joseph feels like a town-cred grab rather than actual townie vote.

scum!Dylan.case) Dylan is relatively active (25 posts on D1), and is consistently anti-Joseph lynch. RVS vote on LL (seems pretty townie) (and all votes do count, say what you want about RVS), creates a wagon on pasta (town), eventually unvotes and doesn't vote again until he jumps on the first pseudo-viable wagon (WCD)

Regarding the WCD wagon.  Scum does not typically create a random wagon at the end of the day on someone they know will likely not get lynched.  Rather, scum jumps on an alternative wagon that they think could be potentially viable when they get the chance.  Dylan had already unvoted pasta earlier in the day and may have felt that re-voting there would be too much of a flip-flop, so when WCD appeared as an option he jumped at the opportunity. Of course, Dylan does end up going back to scolapasta (because of this?). And I end up hammering scum.
Logged
Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

Calamitas

  • Tactician
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 407
  • Shuffle iT Username: Calamitas
    • View Profile
Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #466 on: May 27, 2020, 03:06:49 pm »

-snip-

I love how e is absent most of D1, comes in and immediately starts pushing away from Joseph (in fact inventing a new wagon to do so at a time when things were starting to consolidate a bit), hammers in a noncommittal tone for the sake of getting a lynch (which is NAI), then comes out D2 claiming psuedo-IC for the hammer and throwing shade at people who didn't like the D1 Joseph wagon without so much as a shred of acknowledgement that he did the same thing but was lucky enough to be online at the deadline in order to hammer and get himself on wagon.

Vote: e

I mean, obvious (and valid) points, I only take umbrage with the fact that I was lucky to be online at deadline.

In fact, had I been scum I could very well have been lucky enough to not be online.

There is the angle that I saw the inevitable and went for the town cred after an abysmal D1. And sure. I deserve that. But I will try to do better today.

Here's dylan's case, and I think it's stronger than people are making it out to be. I can also see e coming out of a taxing scum game (Falling Skies) and rolling scum again and not being super excited about it, which explains some of his lack of substance day 1.

Also, I think you were "lucky enough" to be online to take the hammer and get the towncred, as you say. You could have been lucky enough to be offline, but then someone else would almost definitely hammer, considering how close we were to deadline.
I agree it's decent, that's why e is on my "might be next in line" list. I don't give them significant towncredit for hammering and I agree that the way he started the day is indicative of him not having a town mindset.

Your case and the one on Dylan are better though imo.
Logged
Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

Dylan32

  • Young Witch
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 132
  • Shuffle iT Username: Dylan32
    • View Profile
Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #467 on: May 27, 2020, 03:56:21 pm »

Sorry, busy day today. Not sure if I'll have much time to be on until tomorrow (IRL tomorrow, not game day).
Logged
Forum Mafia Record - Wins: 14 - NM9, M97, RMM41, M99, M102, M104, M119, M126, RMM56, M133, M134, RMM58, RMM59, RMM61, RMM60; Losses 15 - RMM37, M89, M94, M95, M96, M100, RMM47 M109, M110, M120, M127, M129, M131, M132, M136; MVPs: 1 - NM9

Swowl

  • Pawn
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1
  • Shuffle iT Username: Swowl
  • Snow.Owl.Duh.
    • View Profile
Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #468 on: May 27, 2020, 04:28:26 pm »

Swowl, you made a long post last night (overnight my time) looking at Joseph's L-1ing of Scola. Five posts before that, I'd looked at exactly the same wagon, made other suggestions and come to different conclusions. You didn't mention my post in yours... do you agree with any of it at all?

In particular:
1) I believe that the reason he tried to set this up was to get town to make a mistake with a quick hammer. The day was dragging on, moving slowly, and just kind of the only situation in which town may actually consider doing it. Not the best theory, but IDK how many other reasons there could be.

The reasoning I based my thoughts around was exactly that I think he was expecting an off-wagon scumbuddy to come in and hammer, especially because he hinted at having been looking at who was watching the thread. Isn't that something that might be really quite plausible? I think Joseph is aware that scum likes coordinated quickhammers (albeit ignoring the fact that that's mostly at mylo etc!) and was trying to set something up so that one of his buddies could swoop in and hammer before any townies got cold feet. Yes, it's definitely sub-optimal play, as others have already pointed out, but it feels very much like the sort of scheme Joseph woudl try.

The difference our two sets of assumptions makes to the rest of the reasoning isn't huge, in that both scenarios allow for one-off, one-on as far as scum and the scola wagon goes. However, it feels quite weird that you posted your whole analysis without commenting that it was the opposite assumption to the one I'd just posted.

Heyo - Yeah I saw it. It was actually the reason that I started the VCA where I did. I had a bit at the top typed out regarding "it is not important whether or not Joseph was lying about someone being online, nor does it matter who it was... but what does matter is why Joseph chose to take that route".... however the whole post ended up being so long I snipped out the quote reply and the opening.

Short answer - yeah I saw your post. And I am in agreement with your stance that we came to different conclusions and that isn't that big of a deal... but it is also why I typed it up. I read you logic (and you had the good catch, so that intrigued me) - but in the end my brain said "well I think it is the other way around".

I guess since we took all the time to do the thing twice lol I should clarify - From your pov do you think it is more likely that all skum was on wagon as opposed to 2 skum off wagon?
Logged
Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

  • Pawn
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1
  • Shuffle iT Username: Swowl
  • Snow.Owl.Duh.
    • View Profile
Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #469 on: May 27, 2020, 04:34:31 pm »

No, this case:

Let's compare the cases:


scum!e.case) e is basically absent D1 (4 posts prior to the day end burst of activity), has an RVS vote on mail-mi. When e does show up he doesn't like a Joseph lynch and creates an alternative wagon on WCD because he doesn't like the Joseph lynch. non-committal hammer on Joseph feels like a town-cred grab rather than actual townie vote.

scum!Dylan.case) Dylan is relatively active (25 posts on D1), and is consistently anti-Joseph lynch. RVS vote on LL (seems pretty townie) (and all votes do count, say what you want about RVS), creates a wagon on pasta (town), eventually unvotes and doesn't vote again until he jumps on the first pseudo-viable wagon (WCD)

Regarding the WCD wagon.  Scum does not typically create a random wagon at the end of the day on someone they know will likely not get lynched.  Rather, scum jumps on an alternative wagon that they think could be potentially viable when they get the chance.  Dylan had already unvoted pasta earlier in the day and may have felt that re-voting there would be too much of a flip-flop, so when WCD appeared as an option he jumped at the opportunity. Of course, Dylan does end up going back to scolapasta (because of this?). And I end up hammering scum.

E! ate their Wheaties this morning - don't think I have seen this many posts prior to late game from you like... ever.

Also, the third paragraph here is an interesting concept.
However, what I do not understand - is for this to make any sense, you have to like HARD town read didds right? Otherwise it is just kind of guess-spew.
But you just posted this list, in which WCD falls in the middle.

Current reads:

Scum tier
Dylan, mail-mi

Scummy(ish)
Calamitas

Merits a reread, I don't remember much about them
yuma, WCD, Swowl

Townie(ish)
Space, LaLight

Town
ADK, e

Separate concepts? Am I missing something here?

Logged
Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

A Drowned Kernel

  • 2015 World Champion
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1067
  • They/Them
    • View Profile
Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #470 on: May 27, 2020, 05:17:20 pm »

*Becomes an IC, immediately stops following the game*

I promise I will do a big reread/catch-up post soon. It seems like there a few voices that are dominating the discussion today, and I want to take a closer look at what that might mean
Logged
The perfect engine
But it will never go off
Three piles are empty

SpaceAnemone

  • Thief
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 91
  • Shuffle iT Username: SpaceAnemone
  • Correct Horse Battery Staple
    • View Profile
Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #471 on: May 27, 2020, 05:33:38 pm »

Swowl, you made a long post last night (overnight my time) looking at Joseph's L-1ing of Scola. Five posts before that, I'd looked at exactly the same wagon, made other suggestions and come to different conclusions. You didn't mention my post in yours... do you agree with any of it at all?

In particular:
The day was dragging on, moving slowly, and just kind of the only situation in which town may actually consider doing it. Not the best theory, but IDK how many other reasons there could be.


Heyo - Yeah I saw it. It was actually the reason that I started the VCA where I did.

The "IDK how many other reasons there could be" part just seems weird if you'd literally already read my idea about Joseph waiting for a scumbuddy to come along and hammer, which should absolutely count as an "other reason". I feel like you're trying to steer the thinking away from there being off-wagon scums a little more than I like.

I guess since we took all the time to do the thing twice lol I should clarify - From your pov do you think it is more likely that all skum was on wagon as opposed to 2 skum off wagon?

I think one on and one off is the most likely overall. Having to pick between two on-wagon or two off-wagon would be tough. I like my theory that Joseph was trying to set up some kind of misguided scum quickhammer, but it's also true that there are five unknowns on-wagon for me (and for you) and only four unknowns off-wagon, so the numbers game suggests that two on should be more likely than two off. And the more I think about it, the more I convince myself that treating anything Joseph did as useful evidence is probably foolish.

Anyway, if I wanted to get serious about wanting to fall down the rabbit hole of answering your question, there aren't too many people in either group to do an exhausting search by literally consiedring every possible pair as a scumpair and then giving them some kind of a score for how partnery they are and how they interacted with Joseph. I just don't feel like that's the best use of my time yet :-P Though that pretty much just involes re-reading everyone while keeping an open mind for possible pairings and interactions, which is more like what I feel like I should be doing anyway.
Logged
Congratulations! Your SpaceAnemone evolved into UniverseAnemone!
Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

Swowl

  • Pawn
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1
  • Shuffle iT Username: Swowl
  • Snow.Owl.Duh.
    • View Profile
Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #472 on: May 27, 2020, 05:52:47 pm »

Swowl, you made a long post last night (overnight my time) looking at Joseph's L-1ing of Scola. Five posts before that, I'd looked at exactly the same wagon, made other suggestions and come to different conclusions. You didn't mention my post in yours... do you agree with any of it at all?

In particular:
The day was dragging on, moving slowly, and just kind of the only situation in which town may actually consider doing it. Not the best theory, but IDK how many other reasons there could be.


Heyo - Yeah I saw it. It was actually the reason that I started the VCA where I did.

The "IDK how many other reasons there could be" part just seems weird if you'd literally already read my idea about Joseph waiting for a scumbuddy to come along and hammer, which should absolutely count as an "other reason". I feel like you're trying to steer the thinking away from there being off-wagon scums a little more than I like.


Sorry - that does read poorly. Like I said, in my head while I typed it out I was responding to the post of yours you are referencing here. "Idk how many other reasons" was supposed to come off as "between your reason and my reason, I don't think there are any others".

Now that being said - I do believe my reason is more likely (as you believe your reason is more likely), but yeah - I certainly was not ignoring your thought process.
Whole thing just ended up being a damn mess lol should of left it long so that it was more clear.
Logged
Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

  • Pawn
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1
  • Shuffle iT Username: Swowl
  • Snow.Owl.Duh.
    • View Profile
Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #473 on: May 27, 2020, 05:56:31 pm »

Also in regards to rabbit hole - like you said, spending too much time analyzing why Joseph did anything would be... probably not the best use of time.

That being said one last thing - What do you make of the fact that they never like... did anything? This is to say they went out of their way to try to assumedly set someone up (for being online or whatever), but then never used that set up. Not even as a last ditch effort.
I think that is probably getting too far into tbh... but since you seem to of looked at it to the extent I have looked at it - does that ping you as like just crazy weird?
Logged
Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

WestCoastDidds

  • Ambassador
  • ***
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 33
  • Shuffle iT Username: WestCoastDidds
  • Didds, ya'll
    • View Profile
Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #474 on: May 27, 2020, 06:46:05 pm »

100% on the rabbit hole of the set up he never paid off....

But I wonder if he just got to feeling defeated that he couldn’t shake being the majority wagon all day. Even when I got run up to 3 or 4, it didn’t seem as likely as lynch. I know that just feel hella frustrating.
Logged
classic Diddsian meddling
I never got to read what Didds said, but whatever she's saying, she's right.
Pages: 1 ... 17 18 [19] 20 21 ... 47  All
 

Page created in 0.073 seconds with 19 queries.