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[Calamitas]

@Calamitas, would you like to do a quick sanity-check for me? I'm looking at the probablility of having a UB in the game, and I'm still finding it unintuitively low. Have you evaluated any kind of distribution on this?

(I did both the overall naive one, and the one conditioned on having at most 4 T rolls, given that Joseph's flip tells us we're not in a 5*T or 6*T set-up).

Same, I get just 62% for UB. Was really confused.

For the naive one, did forget about conditioning on Mafias flip. But will not change much I assume.

What is the goal for figuring out these probabilities?  To see if ADK is fake claiming UB?  Where Joseph fakes during twilight, then ADK fakes during twilight? 

I don't care how the probabilities work, sometimes the simple solution is the right one.  That is, ADK is the UB and town.

I agree, as I said earlier I think the details don't matter. But I mean, if you get an intuitively too low number for something then asking the other person who has coded the setup is quite natural, I would say.

[SpaceAnemone]

ADK, Didds, Yuma and LL were the main people voting Joseph in the first half of D1, along with scola.

Calamitas L-2'd him at #304. Yuma moved off to Didds (e's brand new wagon) at #316, taking the wagon down to L-3, but came back to make it L-1 after Scola had re-joined.

If anyone looks scummy purely based on wagon motion in all that, it's Yuma.

PPE several: yes, what Calamitas said about wanting a sanity-check on the number :-)

[Calamitas]

yes, what Calamitas said about wanting a sanity-check on the number :-)

But I am still curious for why you started to check it in the first place. Do you think it matters?

[SpaceAnemone]

yes, what Calamitas said about wanting a sanity-check on the number :-)

But I am still curious for why you started to check it in the first place. Do you think it matters?

It's good to have independent verification, because there may be other inferences I want to do with my system, and as you've now agreed, that number wasn't exactly what our guts expected.

Also, it's useful to know that you agreed so quickly, because it means that scum!you could easily have know that UB wasn't as high-likelihood as most people would have thought, so probably you weren't coaching that behind the scenes. (It's worth noting here that apparently the Mafia QT opens in twilight, which I hadn't noticed/remembered till I went back to check the fine print in the set-up).

[Calamitas]

Swowl is pushing hard against Joseph and weirdly flippy about Scola. I really don't like that.
I mean, why did he townread Joseph and said "basically everyone else is fine?".
Null-reading Joseph I can understand, I did that myself (he was second on my preference list as I don't think he is quite the biggest asset town making him the best choice among null-reads). But why a strong townread?

Yams - What number do I dial to talk to someone that wants to look at lynch that isn't scolapasta or joseph?

well I like ADK the most, but I am accepting that is probably not going to happen. Also, they were on your town list, so responding to you I will leave them off. So I guess....

MailMi, LaLight
gap
scolapasta

Vote:scolapasta

not my favorite thing ever.

who is around?

Relevant analysis from Space

The person I'm feeling most confused on is Swowl, because I feel like he switches back and forth a number of times on what to think about Joseph, and I don't quite see a reason behind that.

ADK voted Joseph at #117, over the "unvote" stuff around putting Scola at L-1.
Swowl voted ADK as a first real post of the game at #133, but then immediately at #134 asked Mail-mi why he wasn't offering a "vote Joseph" option. His possible distain for Joseph's play is then backed up in #135 where he points out that observing who's looking at the thread is not that useful.
Finally queries LL on being "ok" with either of Joseph or Scola in #136. So the mood in #133 and #136 seemed against people wanting to lynch Joseph, while in #134 and #136 it seemed to be actively open to a Joseph lynch, or at the very least, pointing out that Joseph wasn't being helpfully pro-town.

I guess from #165 & #169 onwards he's settled on wanting to lynch people who though Joseph was scummy, with ADK apparently being top of the list still. I don't see any real justification for how he doesn't seem to think Joseph or Scola deserve votes, and indeed he goes out of his way to ask Scola some questions at 200 that he never goes back and re-engages with. I see that at #212 he says he just doesn't think people who pick up early wagons are ever scum, but that's a very convenient way to avoid having to say anything about any actual play made by either Joseph or Scola.

And then at #236, Scola appears at a second tier of what I assume is a scum-to-chum list, which is unexpected given that he was asking for alternatives to both Joseph and Scola earlier. And what's more, he was asking Mail-mi for alternatives, and apparently Mail-mi is right up there at tier one, too. So yeah, that just doesn't feel super-consistent to me.

PPE 2

Also, I am curious about the connection between Scola and Swowl, there seems to be some history there

PPE: 1

[Calamitas]

yes, what Calamitas said about wanting a sanity-check on the number :-)

But I am still curious for why you started to check it in the first place. Do you think it matters?

It's good to have independent verification, because there may be other inferences I want to do with my system, and as you've now agreed, that number wasn't exactly what our guts expected.

Also, it's useful to know that you agreed so quickly, because it means that scum!you could easily have know that UB wasn't as high-likelihood as most people would have thought, so probably you weren't coaching that behind the scenes. (It's worth noting here that apparently the Mafia QT opens in twilight, which I hadn't noticed/remembered till I went back to check the fine print in the set-up).

Uff, I hear that with Twilight for the first time. Now I am getting paranoid as well. Though I honestly don't see why you think this is reassuring in relation to me? If anything shouldn't you be more sceptical of me now, as this increases the value of all sorts of UB fakeclaims? I need to think this through in a calmer moment

Being off for a while, I think I did quite make up for my lurking at D1 ;-) I almost forgot how much fun real mafia is

[Calamitas]

That was a knee jerk reaction. Just so there isn't any dumb confusion, I'm the UB

Interesting. Theres no point in claiming this if ADK is scum, so they're definitely town. And it seems I was wrong about Joseph.

Still here for another post

Just noticed that the second half ("seems I was wrong") is too weak given the "definitely" in the first part. I wouldn't have phrased it that way if I just saw something that fully convinced me that my belief was bullshit.

I think all in all vote: mail-mi for now, but I also don't like Dylan and Swowl as I said.

Townreading Space, ADK (basically IC)

Confused: e, yuma

Null: LaLight, West

[SpaceAnemone]

Uff, I hear that with Twilight for the first time. Now I am getting paranoid as well. Though I honestly don't see why you think this is reassuring in relation to me? If anything shouldn't you be more sceptical of me now, as this increases the value of all sorts of UB fakeclaims?

Not really, because you'd have been able to give him the marginal likelihood of there being at least one instance of any given role in the game, even conditioning on whatever Mafia knows about the number of Ts rolled. I think it would have been smarter for him to have claimed a high-likelihood PR, even if there's a chance of there being multiples in the game.

Being off for a while, I think I did quite make up for my lurking at D1 ;-) I almost forgot how much fun real mafia is

You're now the only player who's made more in-game posts than Joseph. Though that means at least 50% of our top posters are scummy, and may not be the vibe you're going for exaclty.

PPE 1: And you're still going :-P I too should step away from the game and do more productive things!

[mail-mi]

There are 2 things  I want to do today (game day). Evaluate votes from yesterday (and fortunately yesterday was short) and evaluate people's reactions to my posts yesterday (I was going to vote for scola since I found him scummy flipping back and forth on me yesterday, but here we are). I should have time to do at least one of those today (IRL day). First I'll respond to votes on me though.

[2.71828.....]

Dylan and calamitis are both scum then I suppose.

At least, calamitis is doing the classic "these three are scummy, let me focus in on one [mail-mi in this case] while ignoring my partner [Dylan]"

[mail-mi]

I didn't think that I was going to be alive today but for now I'm feeling vote: mail-mi. Was vocally against the joseph wagon and in  a way that makes it impossible to read what his actual intentions were

My actual intentions were that I was townreading Joseph. He seemed like his normal Joseph-y self, and I'm a sucker for people who get mislynched all the time for meta reasons (see: me). In fact, he was one of my only real reads from yesterday. I like to think I'm a little better at playing scum than to come out as the staunchest defender (at least, I think so) of my scum buddy who is more than likely going to be the lynch for the day, though of course it's a WIFOM argument.

[mail-mi]

That was a knee jerk reaction. Just so there isn't any dumb confusion, I'm the UB

Interesting. Theres no point in claiming this if ADK is scum, so they're definitely town. And it seems I was wrong about Joseph.

Still here for another post

Just noticed that the second half ("seems I was wrong") is too weak given the "definitely" in the first part. I wouldn't have phrased it that way if I just saw something that fully convinced me that my belief was bullshit.

I think all in all vote: mail-mi for now, but I also don't like Dylan and Swowl as I said.

Townreading Space, ADK (basically IC)

Confused: e, yuma

Null: LaLight, West

I think you're reading too much into this specific post.

[2.71828.....]

But yeah, I can totally see a calamitis/Dylan/Joseph team.

I do need to reread calamitis' D1 though

[WestCoastDidds]

Howdy hi!

Poor Scola...you are missed, friend.

Yesterday, the biggest friends-of-Jospeh were Swowl, mail-mi and Dylan. But I am not sure how that list resonates with the Scola kill. Who would he have been a threat to? Or was offing him a hope that he as a PR.  He was the UB in the M game before this one and was super-subtle about it, so if the baddies were also in that game (ie, swowl, Dylan, yuma) he might have seemed a good target.

[LaLight]

definitely vote: Dylan

wanted to do this yesterday after weird flipflop on me, but Joseph was scummier, of course

[SpaceAnemone]

Dylan and calamitis are both scum then I suppose.

At least, calamitis is doing the classic "these three are scummy, let me focus in on one [mail-mi in this case] while ignoring my partner [Dylan]"

I thought his Dylan-is-scummy post at #389 was good, though. He highlighted something I found odd about Dylan that I don't think anyone else had posted about, and that seems an odd thing to do as a scum-buddy. The thing in question was the way Dylan came back after a long game-absence (>2.5 IRL-days) and the first think he commented was a short correction to Joseph's misunderstanding about Swowl's identity.

Calamitas put it in terms of Dylan not interacting much with Joseph except for that exchange, which actually goes further than what I'd noticed, which was just that it felt like a really weird way to come back into the game, especially not commenting on anything else that was going on around it at the time. I don't feel like scum!Calamitas would draw attention to that lack of engagement between Joseph and Dylan if he was their buddy and nobody else was even talking about it.

[2.71828.....]

Dylan and calamitis are both scum then I suppose.

At least, calamitis is doing the classic "these three are scummy, let me focus in on one [mail-mi in this case] while ignoring my partner [Dylan]"

I thought his Dylan-is-scummy post at #389 was good, though. He highlighted something I found odd about Dylan that I don't think anyone else had posted about, and that seems an odd thing to do as a scum-buddy. The thing in question was the way Dylan came back after a long game-absence (>2.5 IRL-days) and the first think he commented was a short correction to Joseph's misunderstanding about Swowl's identity.

Calamitas put it in terms of Dylan not interacting much with Joseph except for that exchange, which actually goes further than what I'd noticed, which was just that it felt like a really weird way to come back into the game, especially not commenting on anything else that was going on around it at the time. I don't feel like scum!Calamitas would draw attention to that lack of engagement between Joseph and Dylan if he was their buddy and nobody else was even talking about it.

True, but then he follows that up with a mail-mi vote? It looks like partner-distancing.

I mean, dylan is still my lynch of choice for today. Calamitis is on my radar though

[2.71828.....]

Not distancing, that wasn't the right word.

The "group my teammate with scum then vote on the weaker case"

[Dylan32]

To be clear, I wasn't town reading Joseph, he was decidedly null. I just don't like voting for null reads that are commonly mislynched, because that's the kind of thing that eventually sucks the fun out of the game for people.  I just came off of a game where I correctly read him as scum D1, and I just didn't think the things people pointed to were scummy coming from Joseph.

And that was a joke, so Unvote

I don't get it

The best jokes are the ones that need to be explained more.  But actually, Joseph can do some crazy stuff, I don't think voting to L-1 here is a scum tell

Swan! How are you?? I miss talking to you every day!

You don’t find Joseph’s L-1 shenanigans scummy?

Right?!? We should just get our own thread every game.

And no? Idk I don’t really get what the skummy part is about it. Like if putting them at L1 is skummy then putting them at L2 L3 etc should also be skummy. But the only reason to think it is skummy is “if you know the wagon is town”. So, for now i am more interested in The people that found Joseph skummy rather than Joseph themself.

this makes a lot of sense

I am also around, and we do need a Lynch

We also don't need last second claims.

-----

Meh

Vote: Joseph

I love how e is absent most of D1, comes in and immediately starts pushing away from Joseph (in fact inventing a new wagon to do so at a time when things were starting to consolidate a bit), hammers in a noncommittal tone for the sake of getting a lynch (which is NAI), then comes out D2 claiming psuedo-IC for the hammer and throwing shade at people who didn't like the D1 Joseph wagon without so much as a shred of acknowledgement that he did the same thing but was lucky enough to be online at the deadline in order to hammer and get himself on wagon.

Vote: e

[2.71828.....]

-snip-

I love how e is absent most of D1, comes in and immediately starts pushing away from Joseph (in fact inventing a new wagon to do so at a time when things were starting to consolidate a bit), hammers in a noncommittal tone for the sake of getting a lynch (which is NAI), then comes out D2 claiming psuedo-IC for the hammer and throwing shade at people who didn't like the D1 Joseph wagon without so much as a shred of acknowledgement that he did the same thing but was lucky enough to be online at the deadline in order to hammer and get himself on wagon.

Vote: e

I mean, obvious (and valid) points, I only take umbrage with the fact that I was lucky to be online at deadline.

In fact, had I been scum I could very well have been lucky enough to not be online.

There is the angle that I saw the inevitable and went for the town cred after an abysmal D1. And sure. I deserve that. But I will try to do better today.

[Swowl]

Catching up as I go here, but as I meant to respond to this Space quote yesterday, and now you are asking similar things... I will start here:

Joseph -
1) As I stated multiple times already...I did not like that it got picked up so quickly for such a weak reason and continued to linger, and/or build for pretty much the entire day. That made me suspicious.
2) Which led me to thinking that the people that fell in line straight off  onto the Joseph wagon, were potentially suspicious. As it turns out... wrong on all accounts. ADK was only skummy because I thought Joseph was towny, now... that is all garbage so meh.
3) I defended him in attempts to get people to interact with me regarding their reasons as to why they were skummy. Also, because I thought he was town based on the above and their general play of the game. When I did not get any new and fun reasons from people voting Joseph - or those looking for a place to move their vote - yet no one moved away from Joseph, and people whom needed to move a vote end of day moved to Joseph... it just overly solidified my hunch it was Town!Joseph.

Flippy Floppy with scola -
1) IDK what you mean by this. There were two viable wagons at the end of the day. I was very very clearly against Joseph. scola was the other option. There was no flippy floppy at all here, my view essentially never changed on scola, the time tables of the day just advanced which made them a relatively better option then they were prior.
2) Also, as the day advanced and so many people talked about "being ok with lynching them" but lots of people did not actually go for it... that also made me raise my brows a little bit.


History with me and scola -
1) No clue. We have played a few together, coming off a longer one. Like I said above, I did not love the lynch choice, but I preferred it to Joseph. That is what was meant by "not my favorite thing ever".


Space - I believe the above should pretty much fill in the gaps for your stuff. But just to be clear... it felt inconsistent because it was inconsistent. I did not like the Joseph wagon, nor did I like the scolapasta wagon. Time passes, I cannot get any traction on anything I wanted. We get to DL time... It was the same it was before simply with less time to deal with... I still did not like the Joseph Wagon, and I was not a huge fan of the scola lynch... but I preferred scola over Joseph... so scola it became.

[Dylan32]

-snip-

I love how e is absent most of D1, comes in and immediately starts pushing away from Joseph (in fact inventing a new wagon to do so at a time when things were starting to consolidate a bit), hammers in a noncommittal tone for the sake of getting a lynch (which is NAI), then comes out D2 claiming psuedo-IC for the hammer and throwing shade at people who didn't like the D1 Joseph wagon without so much as a shred of acknowledgement that he did the same thing but was lucky enough to be online at the deadline in order to hammer and get himself on wagon.

Vote: e

I mean, obvious (and valid) points, I only take umbrage with the fact that I was lucky to be online at deadline.

In fact, had I been scum I could very well have been lucky enough to not be online.

There is the angle that I saw the inevitable and went for the town cred after an abysmal D1. And sure. I deserve that. But I will try to do better today.

By lucky enough to be... I meant as it regards timezones and the deadline being such that you were able to be online, not that you being online specifically was alignment related, as most of the US based players wouldn't have had the opportunity to hammer there no matter what their alignment unless they got up really early or stayed up extremely late.  And are you saying the angle in the 3rd line is a town narrative for it? Because scum could just as easily see the inevitable and go for town cred after not being active D1.

[2.71828.....]

-snip-

I love how e is absent most of D1, comes in and immediately starts pushing away from Joseph (in fact inventing a new wagon to do so at a time when things were starting to consolidate a bit), hammers in a noncommittal tone for the sake of getting a lynch (which is NAI), then comes out D2 claiming psuedo-IC for the hammer and throwing shade at people who didn't like the D1 Joseph wagon without so much as a shred of acknowledgement that he did the same thing but was lucky enough to be online at the deadline in order to hammer and get himself on wagon.

Vote: e

I mean, obvious (and valid) points, I only take umbrage with the fact that I was lucky to be online at deadline.

In fact, had I been scum I could very well have been lucky enough to not be online.

There is the angle that I saw the inevitable and went for the town cred after an abysmal D1. And sure. I deserve that. But I will try to do better today.

By lucky enough to be... I meant as it regards timezones and the deadline being such that you were able to be online, not that you being online specifically was alignment related, as most of the US based players wouldn't have had the opportunity to hammer there no matter what their alignment unless they got up really early or stayed up extremely late.  And are you saying the angle in the 3rd line is a town narrative for it? Because scum could just as easily see the inevitable and go for town cred after not being active D1.

I was going angle from your perspective.  i.e. I am scum and needed town cred so I hammered my partner.

While a viable option (and understandable argument from scum!dylan), it is incorrect.  I am a firm believer in town being much more likely to win with a scum D1 lynch.  I don't lynch my partner there.  I lurk and hope that something crazy happens and my partner survives.

[SpaceAnemone]

Something I forgot to post earlier on the scola L-1 thing. Joseph mentioned looking to see who was online at the time, and I feel like there's a reasonable chance that he wasn't making that part up.

I wonder whether it's actually possible that his intention was to put scola to L-1 so that an off-wagon buddy would come along and drop the hammer. While people have already pointed out that no sensible scum would do that sort of thing D1, we already know that Joseph was being a bit obvious about his play, so maybe it actually seemed like a good idea to him at the time.

If that actually is the case, it implies that at least one scum was off-wagon at the time Joseph L-1'd scola:
scolapasta (6): Dylan32, A Drowned Kernel, LaLight, mail-mi, Calamitas, Joseph2302
which in turn implies at most one scum in {Dylan32, A Drowned Kernel, LaLight, mail-mi, Calamitas}, and at least one scum in {2.71828, Yuma, SpaceAnemone, WestCoastDidds, Swowl}.

[Dylan32]

-snip-

I love how e is absent most of D1, comes in and immediately starts pushing away from Joseph (in fact inventing a new wagon to do so at a time when things were starting to consolidate a bit), hammers in a noncommittal tone for the sake of getting a lynch (which is NAI), then comes out D2 claiming psuedo-IC for the hammer and throwing shade at people who didn't like the D1 Joseph wagon without so much as a shred of acknowledgement that he did the same thing but was lucky enough to be online at the deadline in order to hammer and get himself on wagon.

Vote: e

I mean, obvious (and valid) points, I only take umbrage with the fact that I was lucky to be online at deadline.

In fact, had I been scum I could very well have been lucky enough to not be online.

There is the angle that I saw the inevitable and went for the town cred after an abysmal D1. And sure. I deserve that. But I will try to do better today.

By lucky enough to be... I meant as it regards timezones and the deadline being such that you were able to be online, not that you being online specifically was alignment related, as most of the US based players wouldn't have had the opportunity to hammer there no matter what their alignment unless they got up really early or stayed up extremely late.  And are you saying the angle in the 3rd line is a town narrative for it? Because scum could just as easily see the inevitable and go for town cred after not being active D1.

I was going angle from your perspective.  i.e. I am scum and needed town cred so I hammered my partner.

While a viable option (and understandable argument from scum!dylan), it is incorrect.  I am a firm believer in town being much more likely to win with a scum D1 lynch.  I don't lynch my partner there.  I lurk and hope that something crazy happens and my partner survives.

I guess with you not being in the last game, you may not know this, but last game scum declared intent to hammer scum!Joseph D1, but the deadline passed before they did, and that failure to hammer basically lost scum the game, where if they had actually hammered, they probably would have avoided much scrutiny for a bit longer. Of course just not showing up in order to hammer is different than declaring intent to hammer and then not. So my perspective is that scum would have been fairly likely to go ahead and hammer there if they were online. In a lot of cases, there is time to lurk and hope crazy things happen. And way to categorize that angle as only reasonable from scum!me, when it makes perfect sense from town!me's perspective here too.

Also, the whole "we don't need any claims here" *hammer* "Thanks for not giving me time to claim, I'm the UB" sequence seems like a planned contingency from N0 in order to either out the real UB or figure out if there was one or not. Given Joseph's proclivity to be a D1 lynch candidate, it doesn't much to think he would throw out something like, hey, if I'm on the block D1, go ahead and hammer. If I can out a PR I will.

ppe 1