Update 2012-04-07.(Edit: Given the revised tournament format, this post is now using the correct tournament structure to predict the chance of advancing to the bracket championship.)
IntroductionUsing the same TrueSkill algorithm and parameters that are used to create the leaderboard, I've run some simulations to see who's likely to win their groups. There's no particular reason that this would be accurate (even assuming I didn't make an error), so don't take it too seriously.
Notes- Ignorentmen, rspeer, and Tonks77 are missing from the current leaderboard, so they get the default 25 +/- 25 rating--meaning their results are not very predictive at all. If any of you have a name with a reasonable rating on it, I can add that to the simulation to get more interesting results.
- More than 1% of the time, there is more than a 2-way tie for the winner of some group. Since there isn't a rule for this case, I don't handle it correctly.
- I randomly sample player skills once before each simulation and hold them fixed throughout the simulation. Hopefully this is a reasonable way to interpret the TrueSkill ratings.
ResultsBelow are the results from 10,000 simulations. Here's how to read the results. The percentage shows the number of times that player wins their group. "mu" is the mean skill of that player (which is shown on the leaderboard), and "sigma" is the standard deviation of that player's skill (which is one third of the +/- shown on the leaderboard).
Brackets: Groups: Ranking: 48%: shark_bait (mu = 50.2, sigma = 3.5)
17%: dghunter79 (mu = 45.6, sigma = 2.4)
16%: Titandrake (mu = 45.0, sigma = 3.4)
14%: O (mu = 44.9, sigma = 2.4)
2%: antony (mu = 37.8, sigma = 2.8)
2%: gorgonstar (mu = 38.0, sigma = 2.5)
1%: ednever (mu = 36.0, sigma = 2.9)
0%: Insomniac-X (mu = 27.1, sigma = 4.0)
Ranking: 35%: tlloyd (mu = 48.3, sigma = 2.8)
20%: perdhapley (mu = 45.9, sigma = 2.1)
17%: Axxle (mu = 44.7, sigma = 3.7)
13%: Jorbles (mu = 43.6, sigma = 3.7)
9%: [MAD] Mergus (mu = 42.1, sigma = 2.8)
3%: yuma (mu = 37.9, sigma = 3.0)
2%: Coheed (mu = 38.0, sigma = 2.6)
1%: Ignorentmen (mu = 25.0, sigma = 8.3)
Ranking: 42%: NinjaBus (mu = 50.5, sigma = 2.6)
21%: michaeljb (mu = 46.9, sigma = 3.6)
12%: mikemike (mu = 44.7, sigma = 3.0)
11%: A_S00 (mu = 44.5, sigma = 2.8)
8%: BJ Penn (mu = 43.7, sigma = 2.0)
6%: mnavratil (mu = 42.5, sigma = 2.9)
1%: CarpeDeezNuts (mu = 35.5, sigma = 2.5)
0%: ebEliminator (mu = 27.6, sigma = 3.2)
Ranking: 76%: RisingJaguar (mu = 55.9, sigma = 3.6)
13%: greatexpectations (mu = 46.1, sigma = 3.1)
10%: Mean Mr Mustard (mu = 45.4, sigma = 2.5)
1%: Brando Commando (mu = 38.1, sigma = 2.9)
0%: ^_^_^_^ (mu = 33.9, sigma = 3.0)
0%: rspeer (mu = 25.0, sigma = 8.3)
0%: Nicki Menagerie (mu = 30.1, sigma = 2.6)
0%: AHoppy (mu = 14.5, sigma = 3.8)
Groups: Ranking: 40%: Geronimoo (mu = 51.5, sigma = 3.0)
36%: Rabid (mu = 50.9, sigma = 2.6)
11%: lespeutere (mu = 45.6, sigma = 2.4)
9%: MrEevee (mu = 44.9, sigma = 2.6)
2%: Dubdubdubdub (mu = 39.1, sigma = 3.9)
1%: luliin (mu = 37.0, sigma = 3.7)
0%: Mangsky (mu = 27.0, sigma = 3.0)
0%: Nucleus (mu = 26.4, sigma = 3.0)
Ranking: 61%: Fabian (mu = 55.9, sigma = 2.7)
27%: Brathannes (mu = 51.2, sigma = 2.5)
5%: StickaRicka (mu = 44.3, sigma = 3.3)
3%: Lekkit (mu = 42.6, sigma = 2.7)
3%: JanErik (mu = 41.9, sigma = 3.8)
1%: ugasoft (mu = 37.1, sigma = 3.7)
0%: Tonks77 (mu = 25.0, sigma = 8.3)
0%: ArjanB (mu = 29.4, sigma = 3.5)
Ranking: 59%: WanderingWinder (mu = 51.3, sigma = 2.8)
15%: Robz888 (mu = 44.8, sigma = 2.3)
9%: Mic Qsenoch (mu = 42.6, sigma = 2.6)
9%: blueblimp (mu = 42.4, sigma = 2.9)
5%: Masticore (mu = 39.7, sigma = 3.5)
2%: pops (mu = 37.7, sigma = 3.2)
1%: zxcvbn2 (mu = 33.5, sigma = 3.5)
0%: angrybirds (mu = 17.4, sigma = 6.8)
Ranking: 66%: jonts26 (mu = 54.3, sigma = 3.1)
14%: DG (mu = 45.2, sigma = 5.2)
6%: Kirian (mu = 42.7, sigma = 3.6)
6%: Graystripe77 (mu = 42.5, sigma = 3.6)
5%: The Real ~~**Young Nick**~~ (mu = 41.6, sigma = 3.7)
3%: andwilk (mu = 40.6, sigma = 3.6)
0%: elahrairah13 (mu = 33.4, sigma = 2.7)
0%: fit1one (mu = 22.5, sigma = 2.9)