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[MiX]

I did decide to no lynch after I saw no flip. It was (almost, I was very confused for a moment) as a quick reaction as seeing a MyLo.

Also, sleeping's overrated.

[yuma]

No lynch is boring and not fun so I am inherently against it. But won't actively push against it.

[Swowl]

well, for my two cents, it really doesn't metter if we no lynch toDay, or tomorrow, or the day after that. I agree that we should no lynch at one point, but for now, I am content with vote: MiX

as I remember scum!MiX, he very much reminds me of him now.

Meta: I would never, ever delay the game like this. What's the point?

well, as harsh as it is to me to confess it, I really take a bit of a pause after Hunger Games, it almost killed me, and that's why I am a bit lurky. Although I read everything that's going on. Being a vt feels more relaxing, I don't remember when I was it the last time.

Okay, I guess you're scum. We should definitely not lynch today.

lol you are literally delaying the game right now by arguing not to lynch.

[MiX]

well, for my two cents, it really doesn't metter if we no lynch toDay, or tomorrow, or the day after that. I agree that we should no lynch at one point, but for now, I am content with vote: MiX

as I remember scum!MiX, he very much reminds me of him now.

Meta: I would never, ever delay the game like this. What's the point?

well, as harsh as it is to me to confess it, I really take a bit of a pause after Hunger Games, it almost killed me, and that's why I am a bit lurky. Although I read everything that's going on. Being a vt feels more relaxing, I don't remember when I was it the last time.

Okay, I guess you're scum. We should definitely not lynch today.

lol you are literally delaying the game right now by arguing not to lynch.

We're going to skip a day anyway, right? The earlier we do, the shorter the game is.

[MiX]

well, for my two cents, it really doesn't metter if we no lynch toDay, or tomorrow, or the day after that. I agree that we should no lynch at one point, but for now, I am content with vote: MiX

as I remember scum!MiX, he very much reminds me of him now.

Meta: I would never, ever delay the game like this. What's the point?

well, as harsh as it is to me to confess it, I really take a bit of a pause after Hunger Games, it almost killed me, and that's why I am a bit lurky. Although I read everything that's going on. Being a vt feels more relaxing, I don't remember when I was it the last time.

Okay, I guess you're scum. We should definitely not lynch today.

lol you are literally delaying the game right now by arguing not to lynch.

We're going to skip a day anyway, right? The earlier we do, the shorter the game is.

Unless we lynch scum, I forgot we can lynch scum. Lol.

Okay, no sleeping and posting anymore.

[ashersky]

I literally laughed out loud, for a long time.  Amazing.

I caught up, saw a lot of talk about mafia not killing at night and no lynches and what not.  But let's just be real:

If what we thought to be true yesterday was true, there was no reason for mafia not to shoot last night.  If Dylan was honest in his claim, nothing could stop the shot.

Regardless of any other thought process, less living townies is a positive for mafia.  So, what are the possibilities we are working with today?

1. An unclaimed E, D, or B.  This would mean Dylan is the remaining scum, having planned an epic D3 with raptor.
2. Mafia shooting themselves, saved by BP.  MiX pointed out this option idea in thread.
3. Mafia forgot to shoot.
4. Mafia decided not to shoot.

I don't see any other possibilities.

Raptor's flip didn't change anything about the situation we knew about yesterday.  (On a side note, you all need to stop taking away my hammer opportunities.)  As I made the strong case against MiX yesterday, and that case did not hinge on his partner's identity, I of course still believe MiX is the remaining scum.  With the new information we have from the night and so far today, that's only solidified itself further.

Note: If Dylan is actually the final scum, that's a D5 lynch at the earliest.  What an incredibly play in general, and I will just say that the level of scum play since I returned has really increased (referencing HungerLL, of course).

In the case of #1 above, E or B should claim.  E sets up a 1v1 with Dylan again, and B caught scum.  D should remain hidden.
In the case of #2 above, MiX is scum, since who thinks of that?  MiX does, and can't help but admit it in thread.
In the case of #3 above, highly unlikely, but I guess technically possible?  I'm ignoring this for now.
In the case of #4 above, MiX is scum, since who thought that through completely?  MiX did, and couldn't help but admit it in thread.

So in 2 of the 3 possible scenarios (again, ignoring forgetfulness), MiX is the leader. 

Pushing no lynch is scummy.  This isn't 4 alive with 1 scum, no lynching to get to 3-person LYLO.  This is plenty of town alive to scumhunt, so why shut it down?  Who's doing that ? MiX.

Scream confirmation bias all you want.  Of course there's some of that.  Because I am convinced I am right, and I can't just set that aside to find some reason to defend my extremely strong scumread.  And the truth of the matter is, even if I were to somehow to be wrong, whatever.  We have plenty of time and plenty of mislynches to spend.

But I'm not wrong.  I will eat a hat if I'm wrong.

vote: MiX

[WestCoastDidds]

Eating a hat?! That’s amazing.

Ash, can you please tell me what the E,B, and D mean in #1?

[scolapasta]

It's from the set up:
We are TTTTTE, TTTTTB, or TTTTTD (or TTTTTT with Dylan lying and mafia not shooting, trivial to ignore)

E would be a 1-shot doctor (or 1-shot cop as dylan with mafia not shooting)
B would be a Roleblocker
D would be a full Doctor

In any of these cases, Dylan is lying.

Is there any realistic case where Dylan would lie and still be town? though, I'd think if that could've been true, Day 3, he wouldn't continue with it now Day 4.

[scolapasta]

Also to ash's 3, I think Didds pointed out, it was a shortened night. So it can't be that. And shooting BP self, is the same as not shooting. So we're down to 1 and 4:

Dylan is lying
scum chose not to shoot

at first glance, the first to me seems more plausible, as a desperate attempt to have us kill Dylan for them.

i.e if the kill a non Dylan town, then we start the day with 7 alive. If they don't, get us to lynch Dylan, an NK someone same tomorrow, they're at 6 alive in the next situation, having us doing their work for them.

I still think we should vote someone today. For me I think my vote's likely to be either mix or ash.

[WestCoastDidds]

Thanks, Scola! That was really helpful.

For me, the problem with MiX is that he has been on Joseph, Jospeh, raptor at days end. That seems unnecessary, especially since Raptor wasn’t a foregone conclusion.

I like vote: LaLight who was only on the D2 Joseph lynch. Plus I’m still scarred.

[Swowl]

I literally laughed out loud, for a long time.  Amazing.

I caught up, saw a lot of talk about mafia not killing at night and no lynches and what not.  But let's just be real:

If what we thought to be true yesterday was true, there was no reason for mafia not to shoot last night.  If Dylan was honest in his claim, nothing could stop the shot.

Regardless of any other thought process, less living townies is a positive for mafia.  So, what are the possibilities we are working with today?

1. An unclaimed E, D, or B.  This would mean Dylan is the remaining scum, having planned an epic D3 with raptor.
2. Mafia shooting themselves, saved by BP.  MiX pointed out this option idea in thread.
3. Mafia forgot to shoot.
4. Mafia decided not to shoot.

I don't see any other possibilities.

Raptor's flip didn't change anything about the situation we knew about yesterday.  (On a side note, you all need to stop taking away my hammer opportunities.)  As I made the strong case against MiX yesterday, and that case did not hinge on his partner's identity, I of course still believe MiX is the remaining scum.  With the new information we have from the night and so far today, that's only solidified itself further.

Note: If Dylan is actually the final scum, that's a D5 lynch at the earliest.  What an incredibly play in general, and I will just say that the level of scum play since I returned has really increased (referencing HungerLL, of course).

In the case of #1 above, E or B should claim.  E sets up a 1v1 with Dylan again, and B caught scum.  D should remain hidden.
In the case of #2 above, MiX is scum, since who thinks of that?  MiX does, and can't help but admit it in thread.
In the case of #3 above, highly unlikely, but I guess technically possible?  I'm ignoring this for now.
In the case of #4 above, MiX is scum, since who thought that through completely?  MiX did, and couldn't help but admit it in thread.

So in 2 of the 3 possible scenarios (again, ignoring forgetfulness), MiX is the leader. 

Pushing no lynch is scummy.  This isn't 4 alive with 1 scum, no lynching to get to 3-person LYLO.  This is plenty of town alive to scumhunt, so why shut it down?  Who's doing that ? MiX.

Scream confirmation bias all you want.  Of course there's some of that.  Because I am convinced I am right, and I can't just set that aside to find some reason to defend my extremely strong scumread.  And the truth of the matter is, even if I were to somehow to be wrong, whatever.  We have plenty of time and plenty of mislynches to spend.

But I'm not wrong.  I will eat a hat if I'm wrong.

vote: MiX

I think you said "what we thought was true yesterday is still true today" when you meant "what I thought was true yesterday is still true today".

Thoughts on UB claim?

[yuma]

vote: lalight

[Swowl]

ok all can I get some chime in on the UB claim thing pleaseeee.

No like claim it out. Just what people think about it.

[Swowl]

well, for my two cents, it really doesn't metter if we no lynch toDay, or tomorrow, or the day after that. I agree that we should no lynch at one point, but for now, I am content with vote: MiX

as I remember scum!MiX, he very much reminds me of him now.

Meta: I would never, ever delay the game like this. What's the point?

well, as harsh as it is to me to confess it, I really take a bit of a pause after Hunger Games, it almost killed me, and that's why I am a bit lurky. Although I read everything that's going on. Being a vt feels more relaxing, I don't remember when I was it the last time.

Okay, I guess you're scum. We should definitely not lynch today.

i mean if he's skum.... we should probably lynch... skum... right?

[yuma]

Wait a few days until it is necessary. No rush on UB claim here.

[scolapasta]

Not sure I understand the UB claim logic enough to opine. Care to elaborate?

[Swowl]

logic would be that no one can CC because if that happens we win.
if UB claims then we limit the field of players we have to look at by one more.

I don't NOT understand MiX and Yuma wanting to wait it out. I just feel like in this spot it would be better to do it now than later.

[yuma]

logic would be that no one can CC because if that happens we win.
if UB claims then we limit the field of players we have to look at by one more.

I don't NOT understand MiX and Yuma wanting to wait it out. I just feel like in this spot it would be better to do it now than later.

Having the UB claim now will mean a likely town win sooner, but having it wait is better in scenarios where we need that slight advantage in the long run. Each night the UB doesn't claim is a night where they might shoot another townie (instead of the UB) that could have been a potential mislynch.

But I have already claimed VT and don't really care either way. I am not claiming UB but I won't be outraged if the UB personally wants to claim. It is always the prerogative of the role to claim when they choose to do so.

[Swowl]

logic would be that no one can CC because if that happens we win.
if UB claims then we limit the field of players we have to look at by one more.

I don't NOT understand MiX and Yuma wanting to wait it out. I just feel like in this spot it would be better to do it now than later.

Having the UB claim now will mean a likely town win sooner, but having it wait is better in scenarios where we need that slight advantage in the long run. Each night the UB doesn't claim is a night where they might shoot another townie (instead of the UB) that could have been a potential mislynch.

But I have already claimed VT and don't really care either way. I am not claiming UB but I won't be outraged if the UB personally wants to claim. It is always the prerogative of the role to claim when they choose to do so.

I think we are just 2 sides of the same coin on this - which is fine. I think the risk of UB waiting is too high and you believe the reward is potentially high enough. That I can, still not like agree with, but at least get. The exactness of 5 players.. that I still don't get.

[yuma]

I mean as long as we don't accidentally lynch the UB what is the risk of waiting?

[Swowl]

other then they could shoot the UB?
Downside of not being able to iso out the UB in terms of read backs. Which at this point, could be fairly important. Though to your point, discretion claim could come into play there.

[ashersky]

FYI, I think DatSwan's vote on LL wouldn't have counted, so LL has 2 and MiX has 2.

[ashersky]

I've already laid out who I think is okay to claim.  That did not include the UB.

[ashersky]

other then they could shoot the UB?
Downside of not being able to iso out the UB in terms of read backs. Which at this point, could be fairly important. Though to your point, discretion claim could come into play there.

We have eight alive.  The chance we'll need to iso out anyone is slim.  True random lynches still result in a win for town a lot, no?  Let's assume the NK is stopped every other night:

7 v 1, ML+NK
5 v 1, ML
4 v 1, ML+NK
2 v 1

That's three free mislynches before LYLO.  The chance we swing and miss four times in a row is small.  With no NKs, we get even more.  Even with NKs every night, we just NL that third ML to get to the same LYLO.

(This scenario-running is also clear evidence why not shooting is just a terrible idea by scum.)

So I'm not worried about anything.  I think only those I mentioned should claim.  Heck, they don't even need to if they don't want to and we STILL win based on our efforts.

(And by that I mean, we lynch MiX and win.)

[MiX]

I literally laughed out loud, for a long time.  Amazing.

I caught up, saw a lot of talk about mafia not killing at night and no lynches and what not.  But let's just be real:

If what we thought to be true yesterday was true, there was no reason for mafia not to shoot last night.  If Dylan was honest in his claim, nothing could stop the shot.

Regardless of any other thought process, less living townies is a positive for mafia.  So, what are the possibilities we are working with today?

1. An unclaimed E, D, or B.  This would mean Dylan is the remaining scum, having planned an epic D3 with raptor.
2. Mafia shooting themselves, saved by BP.  MiX pointed out this option idea in thread.
3. Mafia forgot to shoot.
4. Mafia decided not to shoot.

I don't see any other possibilities.

Raptor's flip didn't change anything about the situation we knew about yesterday.  (On a side note, you all need to stop taking away my hammer opportunities.)  As I made the strong case against MiX yesterday, and that case did not hinge on his partner's identity, I of course still believe MiX is the remaining scum.  With the new information we have from the night and so far today, that's only solidified itself further.

Note: If Dylan is actually the final scum, that's a D5 lynch at the earliest.  What an incredibly play in general, and I will just say that the level of scum play since I returned has really increased (referencing HungerLL, of course).

In the case of #1 above, E or B should claim.  E sets up a 1v1 with Dylan again, and B caught scum.  D should remain hidden.
In the case of #2 above, MiX is scum, since who thinks of that?  MiX does, and can't help but admit it in thread.
In the case of #3 above, highly unlikely, but I guess technically possible?  I'm ignoring this for now.
In the case of #4 above, MiX is scum, since who thought that through completely?  MiX did, and couldn't help but admit it in thread.

So in 2 of the 3 possible scenarios (again, ignoring forgetfulness), MiX is the leader. 

Pushing no lynch is scummy.  This isn't 4 alive with 1 scum, no lynching to get to 3-person LYLO.  This is plenty of town alive to scumhunt, so why shut it down?  Who's doing that ? MiX.

Scream confirmation bias all you want.  Of course there's some of that.  Because I am convinced I am right, and I can't just set that aside to find some reason to defend my extremely strong scumread.  And the truth of the matter is, even if I were to somehow to be wrong, whatever.  We have plenty of time and plenty of mislynches to spend.

But I'm not wrong.  I will eat a hat if I'm wrong.

vote: MiX

CONFIRMATION BIAAAAAAAAS!

Jokes aside, I can repeat this one more time: just because I said what scum would say, doesn't mean scum said something. I can indeed be the only person that could've scumslipped, but it doesn't mean I did. Your case is just "here's what scum would say, MiX said it, therefore MiX is scum" when you're forgetting about the fact that scum doesn't have to say it. They don't need to say anything, they can play it cool. I wouldn't, yes, because I know that as town I say it, but again, I'm not scum, so that would have to come from the bias of thinking I'm scum in the first place.

I want no lynch because scum doesn't want no lynch. I'm not giving scum what they want, so I'm willing to go back to status quo.

On other scumreads, since no one wants to no lynch, I guess I should say yuma or ash are scum IMO, I don't think LL or Didds would think of not NKing.