- Night 4 I targeted Bright again. I have more or less town read him the entire game, but SO MANY of you have been hounding him that I figured it was worth another check, and I figured he would be a "safer" player to target - that is, less likely to be shot by Shraeye/LaLight if either of them were telling the truth (in light of Eevee's flip, my highest suspicions for who to shoot to find Mafia were: Datswan, Raerae, Eddie, Mail-Mi, in about that order). Bright came back as Not Guilty.
I believe it when you say you weren't roleblocked. From the roleblocker's perspective, one of the scum kills was certainly headed your way, so why waste the roleblock on you. Instead either shraeye or mail-mi would've been worthwhile targets.
On the result, good, good. But also I wish it was a guilty on raerae or LaLight (the Natural Action Resolution would've had investigation come last, checking if the curing went through).
There are a lot of possibilities, but I keep coming back to these scenarios:
- LaLight is a WW roleblocker.
- raerae is Mafia, LaLight is a WW roleblocker.
- raerae is WW, LaLight is a Mafia roleblocker.
- Uncleeurope is a WW roleblocker.
- Uncleeurope is a WW roleblocker, LaLight is a SK.
- raerae is Mafia, and Uncleeurope is the WW roleblocker.
- raerae is Mafia, and Uncleeurope is the WW roleblocker, LaLight is a SK.
- raerae is WW, and Uncleeurope is the Mafia roleblocker.
- raerae is WW, and Uncleeurope is the Mafia roleblocker, LaLight is a SK.
Under 5,7,9, where LaLight really is a SK, mail-mi was roleblocked last night, and LaLight is still a SK. And of course they'd act like they were cured and are town, that's the only way they can still win the game.
For scenarios 7,9, where LaLight is still a SK because of roleblocking, then I'm pretty sure the Town can't win. It'd just be me and Galz vs 3 scum. We'd lynch 1, and then we are both taken out in the night, game over, with a scum-scum tie. Or I suppose the scum could shoot each other, but it's a toss-up, and much more likely that one scum comes out on top than the town winning.
For scenarios 2,3, where Uncle is a survivor, it's a toss-up on who wins. Even if we lynch correctly, either raerae or LaLight, then either Galz or me will die in the night, leaving 1 survivor, 1 scum, 1 town. Uncleeurope would be the king-maker, deciding who wins.
I'm going to rule out these impossible/dicey scenarios.
The final list of scenarios where the Town is likely to win:
- LaLight is a WW roleblocker.
- Uncleeurope is a WW roleblocker.
- Uncleeurope is a WW roleblocker, LaLight is a SK.
- raerae is Mafia, and Uncleeurope is the WW roleblocker.
- raerae is WW, and Uncleeurope is the Mafia roleblocker.
I'd leaning towards just lynching Uncle today. If that first scenario is the actual truth, where Uncle is actually a Survivor, we'll still have tomorrow to lynch LaLight instead.
On the other hand, going back to the scenarios I rejected, lynching Uncle would screw us in the toss-up-king-maker-survivor scenarios. There'd be no king-maker survivor, no 50/50 town win, the town would lose outright.
Mail-mi's death.
Why on Earth was mail-mi killed last night? mail-mi's cure was going to go through no matter if they died or not, this was established yesterday. And killing them over Galz or shraeye is pretty questionable.
There is the possibility is they were killed so they couldn't say if they were roleblocked or not. But we established yesterday that they don't get confirmations if their ability is successful or not. Does that carry over into knowing if their ability went through?
Mod question: Does a roleblocked Psychiatrist that uses their ability get told if they are roleblocked?If so, this could point to the roleblocker both roleblocking and killing mail-mi last night. (And that LaLight is still a SK). But again see above, the only scenario where LaLight is a SK and the Town is likely to win, Uncleeurope is the roleblocker, and we should probably still lynch them first.
Aliens.
If LaLight was never a SK to begin with (scenarios 1,2,3), then the Aliens are likely still around, but they likely used their kill on Night 3. So basically they are Survivors that we need to eventually lynch, we'll cross that bridge if we ever encounter it.
It's also possible that.. well my head hurts from thinking about this. Assume there's no Alien! Or assume if there is, and they have their kill, the Town is screwed anyway.
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Topic: BM27: Bad Idea Mafia- Game Over, Everyone Loses! (Read 170062 times)