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[EFHW]

I don't like the dayvig. No one had taken positions on MiX and he hadn't taken any strong positions,  so the information we get is minimal. Flips are better after people have committed to positions. 

But, I don't think there is a strong argument that pops is scum because of it.

Upshot is, we need to move on.

vote: Space,  lurking.

Awaclus, you have a fresh set of eyes. Anything stand out?

[Awaclus]

Awaclus, you have a fresh set of eyes. Anything stand out?

I haven't read the game yet.

[WestCoastDidds]

Do you have time to give any reads?

Fair question...I’m definitely part of the stagnation problem.  Regardless, I hope it’s been a good week for you, even if it was only to say “bah, humbug!” with great frequency.

I don’t know that I have any reads of value...

I don’t know Pops. I don’t like it that he killed MiX, but if it’s a scum move it’s way more bold than I’d generally expect. I don’t understand some of the ways he’s using words (slots?)

I’m not sure why do many people are voting for Galz. There does seem to be some kind of something going on with him and pops. Can’t tell if it’s long standing respect or scum buddies.

LL theorizing is interesting, I like knowing how his mind works. But also maybe it’s scummy.

The conversations between pops and just about everyone about the level of scumminess in killing MiX has kept the conversation focused only on that issue and it’s related theoretical tangents. The result of this is that I feel like I have a fair sense of his position and my assessment (not so scummy) of it, but there really hasn’t been much else of note. The conversation about the big shot has essentially hijacked the day thus negating any good reason to do it early (absent some requirement/compulsion) by ensuring that no other conversations are happening because no one had time to develop any reads or lines of inquiries before it happened to return to. Thus, the stagnation.

In other news, I think your frustration at the stagnation is towny.

[Swowl]

I'm fine without people sharing their reads.

wahhhhhhttt?

[Swowl]

merry xmas everyone!

[Awaclus]

I'm fine without people sharing their reads.

wahhhhhhttt?

I'm fine without people sharing their reads.

[popsofctown]

I don't feel blameworthy for the dayvig derailing the day, I think you've all gotten more distracted by it than you should have.


A "slot" refers to a player and the potentiality of their role PM.  When someone replaces in and you want to lynch the replacement for reasons concerning the original player's play and the new player's play both you end up needing some word that refers to the role PM someone got that somebody or other will take care of without referring to one person specifically.  Eventually people like me end up using it to refer to players who haven't been replaced at all because it's gamier and it's still a valid descriptor.

In the context of the particular quoted post it seemed the word choice specifically clarified I was making a post about their alignment and not the validity of their previous statements, even though I was discussing the validity of a current statement so one might presume the latter.

[SpaceAnemone]

A compulsive day1 dayvig, which may or may not be what I am, is protown in a 14 player mafia game.

It is slightly disproportionately likely to hit a Mafiosi rather than a townie because it cannot hit the dayvig himself.  By default the tool for removing mafia is the lynch, which has a chance to errantly strike any townie.

I pulled this post up for respoding to in my reread tonight because it seemed like really shaky logic. Now I've completed the reread, I think I get what you mean after all, though: you're saying that a dayvig in a game with x scum out of n players hits scum x/(n-1) times, whereas the lynch might be expected to hit scum x/n times, which is a smaller number, hence "disproportionately".

I don't necessarily agree, because I think the numerator on that second likelihood should be reduced due to the fact that scum can coordinate to distract from a scum lynch to a certain extent when necessary. However, at least I see where you're arguing from.

[SpaceAnemone]

Still VLA, but a burst of service means I’m caught up with reading.

Happy Santa day!

Belated Happy Santa Day :-)

Happy last-few-minutes-of-Boxing-Day if that's a thing in the US or elsewhere too!

[SpaceAnemone]

If town should never shoot in that case, then scum should never shoot as well.  I don't buy it, LaLight

You’ve been the only person to make much sense thus far - or at least I’ve felt your posts have mirrored mine & my thinking. This generally happens (from my perspective anyway) when you’re town.

This sits slightly oddly with me. Is it more likely to come from a super-confident town!Galz, or a scum!Galz who's either buddying Shraeye or setting up for a situation where the two of them support each other's towniness in-thread while misleading everyone? I feel a bit paranoid that it's the latter.

[SpaceAnemone]

Relatedly, I feel sympathy for LL's discomfort with vigs, partly from the same sort of "wow, big shot" thing that WCD expressed. It's not like LL is saying anything terribly outrageos in his expression of doubt about it being a good move. I don't really like the way he seems to have picked up scumpoints for it.

[SpaceAnemone]

ADK feels like he's pretending to change his mind rather than changing his mind, not a fan of that slot right now.

Just a reminder: ADK and I both use they/them as a pronoun.

[SpaceAnemone]

LL theorizing is interesting, I like knowing how his mind works. But also maybe it’s scummy.

Why do you specifically feel that his theorizing is maybe-scummy?

[SpaceAnemone]

vote: Space,  lurking.

Apologies for being AWOL! Thank you for not sending an actual prod over the festive period :-) I threw myself into lots of family stuff for the past 48 hours in compensation for having to spend the first bit of my family visit so wrapped up with urgent last-min work. My next 48 hours are mostly going to be spent in transit and visiting extended family, but I should have decent evening connectivity.

Not currently tempted to do an omgus-vote back again. I actually had to go looking for the last VC to check who I'm voting for. I don't hate being on Galz, so that will do for now. Tomorrow I should try to check to see whether I have an unfair anti-Galz suspicion or something. Right now it's sleep time though.

[EFHW]

saying vigs shouldn't shoot is almost indistinguishable from the copypasta "didn't you know it's wrong to do anything but no-lynch day 1, since the day 1 lynch is more likely to be town than scum".  It's just actually even worse because it's a shot that does slightly better than rand.  That's when you're giving the dayvig's reads no credence at all.

The only decent argument is complaints about the vig victim being a powerful PR who could claim to deter a particularly bad lynch in a way they can't deter a particularly bad vigging, well, I keep that in mind, my sense of MiX's play was that it seemed if I was wrong about him he wasn't something particularly powerful, and it doesn't seem that I was wrong about that at all

What gave you the idea he wasn't powerful? I thought you thought he was scum?

[EFHW]

From all this fallout, I'm suspicious of LaLight the most, Didds a bit.  But there is a more interesting set of players, can't really comment further without more research which isn't going to happen right now because A) phone and B) postop drugs

Can you say more now?

I hope you and raerae are both ok!

[popsofctown]

saying vigs shouldn't shoot is almost indistinguishable from the copypasta "didn't you know it's wrong to do anything but no-lynch day 1, since the day 1 lynch is more likely to be town than scum".  It's just actually even worse because it's a shot that does slightly better than rand.  That's when you're giving the dayvig's reads no credence at all.

The only decent argument is complaints about the vig victim being a powerful PR who could claim to deter a particularly bad lynch in a way they can't deter a particularly bad vigging, well, I keep that in mind, my sense of MiX's play was that it seemed if I was wrong about him he wasn't something particularly powerful, and it doesn't seem that I was wrong about that at all

What gave you the idea he wasn't powerful? I thought you thought he was scum?

Do I need to find the por que no los dos girl to post her in here?
Mafia Goon (well in this setup, a mafia with a very weak ability) is the flip I most expected, VT (same caveat) secondmost.

[shraeye]

From all this fallout, I'm suspicious of LaLight the most, Didds a bit.  But there is a more interesting set of players, can't really comment further without more research which isn't going to happen right now because A) phone and B) postop drugs

Can you say more now?

I hope you and raerae are both ok!

Not yet

[shraeye]

-2 to Space

[shraeye]

vote: Space,  lurking.

Apologies for being AWOL! Thank you for not sending an actual prod over the festive period :-) I threw myself into lots of family stuff for the past 48 hours in compensation for having to spend the first bit of my family visit so wrapped up with urgent last-min work. My next 48 hours are mostly going to be spent in transit and visiting extended family, but I should have decent evening connectivity.

Not currently tempted to do an omgus-vote back again. I actually had to go looking for the last VC to check who I'm voting for. I don't hate being on Galz, so that will do for now. Tomorrow I should try to check to see whether I have an unfair anti-Galz suspicion or something. Right now it's sleep time though.

Why does it matter who you were voting for? Are you actually suspicious of Galz? What would make that suspicion unfair (like, what are you even 'checking' for)??

[SpaceAnemone]

vote: Space,  lurking.

Apologies for being AWOL! Thank you for not sending an actual prod over the festive period :-) I threw myself into lots of family stuff for the past 48 hours in compensation for having to spend the first bit of my family visit so wrapped up with urgent last-min work. My next 48 hours are mostly going to be spent in transit and visiting extended family, but I should have decent evening connectivity.

Not currently tempted to do an omgus-vote back again. I actually had to go looking for the last VC to check who I'm voting for. I don't hate being on Galz, so that will do for now. Tomorrow I should try to check to see whether I have an unfair anti-Galz suspicion or something. Right now it's sleep time though.

Why does it matter who you were voting for? Are you actually suspicious of Galz? What would make that suspicion unfair (like, what are you even 'checking' for)??

It matters who I am voting for now, given that the day is moving on. That comes from who I was voting for.

Yes, minorly suspicious of Gala for the way he seemed to be budding you.

Checking for any personal biases I might have from playing with Galz previously that might unduly colour my read of him this game. Not something I felt awake enough for last night.

Now I'm stuck in the back of a car and my phone screen is tiny so probably not going to get much reading or thinking done till tonight my time.

[Awaclus]

Vote: Glooble

[Glooble]

Vote: Glooble

Please don’t.

[Glooble]

Sorry I know I haven’t said anything in a while other than “don’t lynch me” but trust me when I say lynching me today would be exceptionally bad. I wish I had a strong scumread but I really don’t.

[Awaclus]

Sorry I know I haven’t said anything in a while other than “don’t lynch me” but trust me when I say lynching me today would be exceptionally bad. I wish I had a strong scumread but I really don’t.

Well, having a scumread wouldn't make that defense any less scummy.