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Author Topic: RMM55: iZombie Mafia (Game over, Town and Fillmore-Graves win)  (Read 82756 times)

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popsofctown

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Re: RMM55: iZombie Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #175 on: December 21, 2019, 11:16:56 pm »

Idk guys. I got lynched for using my dayvig in a reckless unexpected way and hitting town. So I fee it’s only fair we have the same policy for pops.

On the other hand, I WAS town. So that sort of proves that pops could be town here.

Pops, did you read “bad idea”? We’re you aware of the immediate history here?
I read enough of the setup to see it was a bastard game.  Bastard games suck.  The way you're posting it sounds like someone misvigged with a dayvig.

Sometimes bad mechanical play has an explanation.  The lazy thing to do is remind yourself that if the player doing the play is town, you can't have the worst performance in the game, so if you play to your imaginary Xbox live achievements instead of your wincon you can just safely lynch.

Putting the effort into reading bad mechanical play and determining if it is scum is exciting and rewarding though.  One of my favorite moments this year was arriving at a hard townread on a player and who had fakeclaimed cop and fakeclaimed an innocent on scum.  I've had a couple other puzzles, most of them when I was speccing.

I'm not going to insist on this level or effort sorting my own slot, but I will demand it for jorheonah because I kind of remember him and his posts are funny and his avatar is still isotropic bureaucrat so therefore he has a good chance to make a mechanical misplay this game.
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jotheonah

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Re: RMM55: iZombie Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #176 on: December 22, 2019, 12:16:03 am »

I think pops is full of it but he’s earned an unvote for now. Knee jerk lynch the dayvig is pretty lazy.
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Re: RMM55: iZombie Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #177 on: December 22, 2019, 12:33:01 am »

I think pops is full of it but he’s earned an unvote for now. Knee jerk lynch the dayvig is pretty lazy.
It was then and it is now.  Lynching pops isn't necessarily wrong, but kneejerk lynching him is as bad or worse than "he vigged mix so early we don't have any interactions to read"

Rushing to lynch him straight up nullifies whatever positives we can piece together.
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Re: RMM55: iZombie Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #178 on: December 22, 2019, 02:03:12 am »

I keep thinking it would be a crazy scum move. Getting lynched if you are wrong is very possible,  and losing a team member Day 1 is pretty terrible for scum. This is WIFOM, of course, but what would be the motive to take a risk like this? Town has the hope of fame and glory if they are right,  at least.

To me, pops comes off as an experienced enough player to do it for the WIFOM

Pops is experienced enough to do this as scum, yes. He’s also experienced enough to do this as Town if he felt it was the right play, and he’s not the type to solicit opinion first.

Pops is not scummy for having done this. You want my vote there, you’ll need to convince me why he wouldn’t have done this as Town, not why he might have done it as scum.

I mean the obvious answer is that it seems unlikely that he would have a strong enough read on mix at that point to justify shooting from the hip like that
There is no strength of read on player X where suddenly it is exciting to dayvig the player.  If I get a 90% scumread on X, then I want to lynch him and force his teammates to expose their Inability to bus.  Vig shots traditionally land on weaker reads for this reason.
Getting a player up to L-1 or L-serious and dayvigging at that point was something I thought about but it magnifies the exact game tempo disruption considerations I am concerned about. 

Keep in mind the theorycrafting point that the bar for vig to be 1 correct effectual usage is not "the target flipped scum".  The bar is actually, "the target either flipped scum or was going to be a mislynch at some point in the game.  Town now have an additional lynch.  That lynch will hit scum (because if it doesn't, town would have lost in either case).  I was taught this by a user just this year and it blew my mind, I applied it just two games later.

I understand your point but when I weigh the likelihood that you had reached that bar of certainty regarding mix vs. the likelihood that your move was a WIFOM-based scum ploy I'm still leaning toward the latter
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EFHW

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Re: RMM55: iZombie Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #179 on: December 22, 2019, 09:32:35 am »

So I'm going to strongly advocate for lynching pops, and to that end I'm going to make a partial claim: I also have the ability to cause a second day death, and I'm skeptical that town would have more than one such ability (especially since mix was apparently also some sort of vig)
Do you mean Day 2 or second as in in addition to the lynch?
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: RMM55: iZombie Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #180 on: December 22, 2019, 09:42:30 am »

So I'm going to strongly advocate for lynching pops, and to that end I'm going to make a partial claim: I also have the ability to cause a second day death, and I'm skeptical that town would have more than one such ability (especially since mix was apparently also some sort of vig)
Do you mean Day 2 or second as in in addition to the lynch?

In addition to the lynch
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Re: RMM55: iZombie Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #181 on: December 22, 2019, 05:15:33 pm »

nvm the big post isn't coming. haven't had the time and by the time I sit down to type the middle of it up, everyone has already covered everything.

Essentially, I do not see an upside for pops shooting if they are skum. Like I get there is the "duh, they get a kill off thing"... but thinking way too much through, I just keep thinking that the downsides in all scenarios out weigh the upsides. That being said, don't really see the point as town either. Seems strange to just shoot it off randomly like that. In a black and white world where the options are ; 1) Pops is Skum, or 2) Pops is Town... I am way more of heavy lean on 2.
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Re: RMM55: iZombie Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #182 on: December 22, 2019, 05:20:14 pm »

Also, regarding ADK and their ability to "vig or something"...
Currently my belief is that I do not like the idea of having ADK just shoot Pops (or anyone else, honestly) today.

14 player game, we lost a town player already. If Pops is town, and we mis lynch.... that could be starting us off in a pretty big ditch.

Not to be overly aggressive on the same point... but, in a scenario where ADK is skum themselves with a day vig shot, it gives them a good smoke screen to be able to use it without being overly scrutinized.
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Re: RMM55: iZombie Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #183 on: December 22, 2019, 05:22:40 pm »

Also, from the big post I wanted to do would be the point that I think Galz made?

That is the one regarding the information of the flip - IDK how much info you all are working with, but I started the game with like zero bearing on the extent of factions and value of my role. After the flip, I now can put some of the pieces together... which, as mentioned, is a neat thing to have day 1.
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Re: RMM55: iZombie Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #184 on: December 22, 2019, 05:23:04 pm »

also
unvote

I was on galz as rvs still.
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shraeye

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Re: RMM55: iZombie Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #185 on: December 22, 2019, 06:08:50 pm »

vote: Galz

I'll keep the balance then.
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Re: RMM55: iZombie Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #186 on: December 22, 2019, 07:31:29 pm »

I'm sort of caught up, but confused about that vigging and need to iso Pops to work out what I think in more detail. However, for now this post is mostly just prod-dodging because it's late and I have to be up early in the morning for that xmas shopping expedition. Very sorry for being so low-content here. Will get properly into this tomorrow night I hope!
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: RMM55: iZombie Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #187 on: December 22, 2019, 07:33:26 pm »

nvm the big post isn't coming. haven't had the time and by the time I sit down to type the middle of it up, everyone has already covered everything.

Essentially, I do not see an upside for pops shooting if they are skum. Like I get there is the "duh, they get a kill off thing"... but thinking way too much through, I just keep thinking that the downsides in all scenarios out weigh the upsides. That being said, don't really see the point as town either. Seems strange to just shoot it off randomly like that. In a black and white world where the options are ; 1) Pops is Skum, or 2) Pops is Town... I am way more of heavy lean on 2.

The upside as I see it is that pops makes himself the center of attention for the day, allowing his partners to avoid it, while having a good chance of avoiding being the lynch, because everyone's going to go "well why would scum do that?"
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EFHW

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Re: RMM55: iZombie Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #188 on: December 22, 2019, 07:43:34 pm »

nvm the big post isn't coming. haven't had the time and by the time I sit down to type the middle of it up, everyone has already covered everything.

Essentially, I do not see an upside for pops shooting if they are skum. Like I get there is the "duh, they get a kill off thing"... but thinking way too much through, I just keep thinking that the downsides in all scenarios out weigh the upsides. That being said, don't really see the point as town either. Seems strange to just shoot it off randomly like that. In a black and white world where the options are ; 1) Pops is Skum, or 2) Pops is Town... I am way more of heavy lean on 2.

The upside as I see it is that pops makes himself the center of attention for the day, allowing his partners to avoid it, while having a good chance of avoiding being the lynch, because everyone's going to go "well why would scum do that?"
What's the payoff? An extra kill doesn't seem worth the risk.
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Re: RMM55: iZombie Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #189 on: December 22, 2019, 07:49:58 pm »

nvm the big post isn't coming. haven't had the time and by the time I sit down to type the middle of it up, everyone has already covered everything.

Essentially, I do not see an upside for pops shooting if they are skum. Like I get there is the "duh, they get a kill off thing"... but thinking way too much through, I just keep thinking that the downsides in all scenarios out weigh the upsides. That being said, don't really see the point as town either. Seems strange to just shoot it off randomly like that. In a black and white world where the options are ; 1) Pops is Skum, or 2) Pops is Town... I am way more of heavy lean on 2.

The upside as I see it is that pops makes himself the center of attention for the day, allowing his partners to avoid it, while having a good chance of avoiding being the lynch, because everyone's going to go "well why would scum do that?"
What's the payoff? An extra kill doesn't seem worth the risk.
Speculating, but he could only have his vig limited to the first day or something. Could be the case as town but I feel like he would have said as much.
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Re: RMM55: iZombie Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #190 on: December 22, 2019, 07:52:06 pm »

My biggest hang up with pops being town is if he thought MiX was scum, I feel like he’d want to let other people way in a bit (or MiX himself) in order to have more interactions to pull from post-death. D1 interactions can be kinda eh, but I still feel like that would have been more beneficial.
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Re: RMM55: iZombie Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #191 on: December 22, 2019, 08:04:50 pm »

nvm the big post isn't coming. haven't had the time and by the time I sit down to type the middle of it up, everyone has already covered everything.

Essentially, I do not see an upside for pops shooting if they are skum. Like I get there is the "duh, they get a kill off thing"... but thinking way too much through, I just keep thinking that the downsides in all scenarios out weigh the upsides. That being said, don't really see the point as town either. Seems strange to just shoot it off randomly like that. In a black and white world where the options are ; 1) Pops is Skum, or 2) Pops is Town... I am way more of heavy lean on 2.

The upside as I see it is that pops makes himself the center of attention for the day, allowing his partners to avoid it, while having a good chance of avoiding being the lynch, because everyone's going to go "well why would scum do that?"
What's the payoff? An extra kill doesn't seem worth the risk.

This conversation we're having right now, where multiple people are convincing themselves that pops wouldn't do this as scum, is conceivably a payoff in itself
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Re: RMM55: iZombie Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #192 on: December 22, 2019, 09:15:33 pm »

I’m still kind of reeling...I’m still not accustomed to the whole big kill thing. I don’t think pops is scummy for doing it, it just seems like it didn’t have much utility.

Although, Swans right...seeing MiX’s flip helped make some of my clauses more clear. I wish MiX had explained them.
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EFHW

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Re: RMM55: iZombie Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #193 on: December 22, 2019, 09:40:32 pm »

nvm the big post isn't coming. haven't had the time and by the time I sit down to type the middle of it up, everyone has already covered everything.

Essentially, I do not see an upside for pops shooting if they are skum. Like I get there is the "duh, they get a kill off thing"... but thinking way too much through, I just keep thinking that the downsides in all scenarios out weigh the upsides. That being said, don't really see the point as town either. Seems strange to just shoot it off randomly like that. In a black and white world where the options are ; 1) Pops is Skum, or 2) Pops is Town... I am way more of heavy lean on 2.

The upside as I see it is that pops makes himself the center of attention for the day, allowing his partners to avoid it, while having a good chance of avoiding being the lynch, because everyone's going to go "well why would scum do that?"
What's the payoff? An extra kill doesn't seem worth the risk.
Speculating, but he could only have his vig limited to the first day or something. Could be the case as town but I feel like he would have said as much.
I think he said that was the case.
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Re: RMM55: iZombie Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #194 on: December 22, 2019, 10:13:59 pm »

I think he said that was the case.
Must have missed that, thanks. Makes it a bit scummier
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Re: RMM55: iZombie Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #195 on: December 23, 2019, 06:57:19 am »

It's scummier that you missed it? Or it's scummier that he had to do it early???  This just sounds like it contradicts your earlier musings, or did I misread something
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popsofctown

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Re: RMM55: iZombie Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #196 on: December 23, 2019, 10:36:40 am »

vote: LaLight

No one has reacted in an even scummier way, as of yet.

I think LaLight thinks it requires no justification to explain a vote on someone who performed a dayvig blindly, similar to how a vote on a cop guilty requires no justification.

However a townie is likely to have an "emotional" response, a natural strong opinion about a dayvig, a why the heck did you do that, or an aha! level of conclusion interpreting the behavior.  I think it was a mistake to switch targets, I should have stuck with LaLight as my dayvig.
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Re: RMM55: iZombie Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #197 on: December 23, 2019, 11:07:34 am »

vote: LaLight

No one has reacted in an even scummier way, as of yet.

I think LaLight thinks it requires no justification to explain a vote on someone who performed a dayvig blindly, similar to how a vote on a cop guilty requires no justification.

However a townie is likely to have an "emotional" response, a natural strong opinion about a dayvig, a why the heck did you do that, or an aha! level of conclusion interpreting the behavior.  I think it was a mistake to switch targets, I should have stuck with LaLight as my dayvig.

Question: did you start your sequence of posts planning to vig someone at the end of it?
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Glooble

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Re: RMM55: iZombie Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #198 on: December 23, 2019, 11:58:06 am »

So we've learned a few things.

1. Some players, at least, have two sets of powers - one for when they are human, and one for when they are a zombie. Or that was my interpretation of MiX's flip anyway.

My role pm heavily implies that there is at least one town-aligned player who can turn humans into zombies. Given the extra info from MiX's flip, it seems to me that if there is a player whose zombie power is much better than their human power and they are currently human, such a player might want to volunteer for zombification. Obviously, this increases the chances of a player going Romero. But -from a game-design perspective, a town-aligned compulsive zombie-izer makes a lot of sense, and if we did have such a role, it would be good for a player who would rather be a zombie than a human to say as much.

2. A dayvig shot that can only be used Day 1 (or is much better if used day 1) makes a lot of sense with the brain eating mechanic. I can see faust wanting to make sure multiple brains would be available night 1. Pops' behavior is still a little questionable to me, but given the additional info that he was incentivized to use his shot today, it's less scummy to me. So...

unvote

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Re: RMM55: iZombie Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #199 on: December 23, 2019, 12:39:41 pm »

@pops: Was your dayvig compulsive?
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