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[Glooble]

vote: Glooble

Really, really bad idea.

[A Drowned Kernel]

So I'm going to strongly advocate for lynching pops, and to that end I'm going to make a partial claim: I also have the ability to cause a second day death, and I'm skeptical that town would have more than one such ability (especially since mix was apparently also some sort of vig)

[EFHW]

I keep thinking it would be a crazy scum move. Getting lynched if you are wrong is very possible,  and losing a team member Day 1 is pretty terrible for scum. This is WIFOM, of course, but what would be the motive to take a risk like this? Town has the hope of fame and glory if they are right,  at least.

[shraeye]

We could also talk generally about brain-eating strategy. I mean, at the end of the day there will be one lynch. Should all zombies try to eat that brain? Should zombies flip a coin and go 50/50 between eating that brain and trying to predict the scum kill and targeting that brain for eating? If we all go for the town lynch brain, than any potential scum zombies would get to eat the nightkill victim's brain unopposed. And that means even fewer brains for town subsequent nights.

Honestly there can't be too many zombies at least to start, because the math is not great. Every zombie has to eat a brain every other night, each zombie can only eat one brain, and there's only going to be 2 new brains generated every day/night cycle (most likely). So mathematically, there's a maximum number of zombies the game can support without some number being guaranteed to Romero.

How can we work this out? If every zombie has to eat every other night, than each zombie needs 1/2 brain per day/night cycle. The game is making 2 brains per day/night cycle. Therefore, a sustainable number of zombies would be 4. That means that <=4 zombies is uninteresting -- they can all get along. Although, zombies can also eat brains they don't need to deprive other zombies of brains, so 4 or less isn't a guarantee of everyone eating well.

Also, zombies can only eat human brains! So the expected number of brains per night also needs to be modified by the chance that the kill was not a zombie. And we don't know that unless we know the thing we're trying to figure out, the number of zombies. The more zombies there are, the fewer brains there are to go around.

Considering all of this, and assuming there aren't mechanics that turn humans into zombies, I'm betting we have 4 or 5 zombies. Any more would make the competition for brains too fierce; less would make it too easy.

I'm not sure whether eating a brain makes it unavailable to be eaten again.
The way the opening post is written in sounds like maybe the same brain can be eaten over and over again.  Like the zombie just eats 100 calories' worth of brain every time there is still plenty more for the next night.

iZombie - Long Dark crossover

[EFHW]

I just checked the OP and only one zombie can eat a particular brain. Really not sure what Shraeye is getting at.

[shraeye]

wowee zowie.  I'm not sure what MiX's words all mean; but whatver.

I'm not sold that ADK's proposed ability prevents pops from being town.  Also, that seemed entirely like a joke-dayvig that I didn't believe until the flipo happened....Didds, why did you believe it?

[Glooble]

So I'm going to strongly advocate for lynching pops, and to that end I'm going to make a partial claim: I also have the ability to cause a second day death, and I'm skeptical that town would have more than one such ability (especially since mix was apparently also some sort of vig)

Maybe the proliferation of such abilities is to ensure adequate brains for munching?

[Archetype]

I keep thinking it would be a crazy scum move. Getting lynched if you are wrong is very possible,  and losing a team member Day 1 is pretty terrible for scum. This is WIFOM, of course, but what would be the motive to take a risk like this? Town has the hope of fame and glory if they are right,  at least.

Town!joth did a fairly similar thing in the last BM game and he got lynched for it...another layer of WIFOM if a town member would do it again.

[LaLight]

vote: pops

[Glooble]

vote: popsofctown

[popsofctown]

My last game to include a dayvig, it was a Desperado.  It was a town player several people were scumreading that had the Desperado power.  And it was a town player many people were scumreading that was shot.  Theoretically that's a good Desperado shot, but the shot occured when neither player was actually topic of the day, and I feel like the way it redirected the course of the game halfway through a day phase was bad for the game.
Maybe if I did tons of maths and figured out my best strongest read and shot there I would kill the dayflow and maybe come out a bit better than breaking even but I don't want to effort this one.

My most recent game with day actions was Magical Girls UPick light and shadow (not counting ones that only came into play after I died in Magius Record).  Players in that game reported in thread that they got PMs about having their day abilities blocked by day-roleblockers.  I don't remember how many of them flipped scum, I died pretty early in it too.  But that's what made me feel like I should expect private action that can disrupt what I'm doing, the reason I was 80/20 on that disruption being a kill is because of the setup spec others have pointed out about brains + some stuff in my role PM hinting at many dayvigs possibly.

I think any combination could be good or evil

[Swowl]

So... Just want to make sure I have the timeline correct here...

First...everyone banters, hellos, RVS votes ect.
After a while there is almost some semblance of a wagon... except not really because like literally every vote was just rando cast out still.
OK...
Then Pops comes and checks in, does what appears to be some catch up (basing that on the posts and quotes I read over).... votes for LL... small stall, and Vigs MiX.

So, lol, because someone could tell that to me as a story about a game they were playing that I wasn't in... and I would be like "no, dude, your're missing something... lemme read that". However, that is actually pretty much... what like... happened. Soooooo... prepare for super weird WIFOM-y Swan theory post that everyone will hate and find me skummy for!

[A Drowned Kernel]

I keep thinking it would be a crazy scum move. Getting lynched if you are wrong is very possible,  and losing a team member Day 1 is pretty terrible for scum. This is WIFOM, of course, but what would be the motive to take a risk like this? Town has the hope of fame and glory if they are right,  at least.

To me, pops comes off as an experienced enough player to do it for the WIFOM

[A Drowned Kernel]

Question for pops: you say you felt that using your power early in the day was better than later. Why not save the power for the start of a later day?

[Galzria]

vote: Glooble

Really, really bad idea.

Why is this a really, really bad idea?

[Galzria]

I keep thinking it would be a crazy scum move. Getting lynched if you are wrong is very possible,  and losing a team member Day 1 is pretty terrible for scum. This is WIFOM, of course, but what would be the motive to take a risk like this? Town has the hope of fame and glory if they are right,  at least.

To me, pops comes off as an experienced enough player to do it for the WIFOM

Pops is experienced enough to do this as scum, yes. He’s also experienced enough to do this as Town if he felt it was the right play, and he’s not the type to solicit opinion first.

Pops is not scummy for having done this. You want my vote there, you’ll need to convince me why he wouldn’t have done this as Town, not why he might have done it as scum.

[Galzria]

Fun fact for those that don’t know:

Pops more or less brought Mafia to f.ds, hosting the first ever game (I specced but didn’t play), Mafia I.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I keep thinking it would be a crazy scum move. Getting lynched if you are wrong is very possible,  and losing a team member Day 1 is pretty terrible for scum. This is WIFOM, of course, but what would be the motive to take a risk like this? Town has the hope of fame and glory if they are right,  at least.

To me, pops comes off as an experienced enough player to do it for the WIFOM

Pops is experienced enough to do this as scum, yes. He’s also experienced enough to do this as Town if he felt it was the right play, and he’s not the type to solicit opinion first.

Pops is not scummy for having done this. You want my vote there, you’ll need to convince me why he wouldn’t have done this as Town, not why he might have done it as scum.

I mean the obvious answer is that it seems unlikely that he would have a strong enough read on mix at that point to justify shooting from the hip like that

[Galzria]

I keep thinking it would be a crazy scum move. Getting lynched if you are wrong is very possible,  and losing a team member Day 1 is pretty terrible for scum. This is WIFOM, of course, but what would be the motive to take a risk like this? Town has the hope of fame and glory if they are right,  at least.

To me, pops comes off as an experienced enough player to do it for the WIFOM

Pops is experienced enough to do this as scum, yes. He’s also experienced enough to do this as Town if he felt it was the right play, and he’s not the type to solicit opinion first.

Pops is not scummy for having done this. You want my vote there, you’ll need to convince me why he wouldn’t have done this as Town, not why he might have done it as scum.

I mean the obvious answer is that it seems unlikely that he would have a strong enough read on mix at that point to justify shooting from the hip like that

Read aside, did he not create a flip (regardless of alignment) to make D1 more than just a bunch of randomness? The D1 lynch is generally accepted to be more or less a crap shoot anyway - we’re just getting ourselves to D2 where we’ll have real information to go on. We now have real information - both about Pops and about MiX - with which to proceed through D1.

[A Drowned Kernel]

So what's your read on pops based on this? What information have you gleaned based on mix's flip?

[jotheonah]

Idk guys. I got lynched for using my dayvig in a reckless unexpected way and hitting town. So I fee it’s only fair we have the same policy for pops.

On the other hand, I WAS town. So that sort of proves that pops could be town here.

Pops, did you read “bad idea”? We’re you aware of the immediate history here?

[WestCoastDidds]

wowee zowie.  I'm not sure what MiX's words all mean; but whatver.

I'm not sold that ADK's proposed ability prevents pops from being town.  Also, that seemed entirely like a joke-dayvig that I didn't believe until the flipo happened....Didds, why did you believe it?

Why did I believe MiX has been killed? Pops didn’t say it with any hint of a joke, and in my last few games, I got day-incinerated by MiX and then in some other game there was a dayvig. In my limited experience, only Joseph makes that joke. Plus I’m gullible so I start with believing.

And then Mix got mad at me for chattering, which is fair but come on...its me, and he seemed legit flummoxed. It didn’t even occur to me to think it was faux.

[Glooble]

I keep thinking it would be a crazy scum move. Getting lynched if you are wrong is very possible,  and losing a team member Day 1 is pretty terrible for scum. This is WIFOM, of course, but what would be the motive to take a risk like this? Town has the hope of fame and glory if they are right,  at least.

To me, pops comes off as an experienced enough player to do it for the WIFOM

Pops is experienced enough to do this as scum, yes. He’s also experienced enough to do this as Town if he felt it was the right play, and he’s not the type to solicit opinion first.

Pops is not scummy for having done this. You want my vote there, you’ll need to convince me why he wouldn’t have done this as Town, not why he might have done it as scum.

I mean the obvious answer is that it seems unlikely that he would have a strong enough read on mix at that point to justify shooting from the hip like that

Read aside, did he not create a flip (regardless of alignment) to make D1 more than just a bunch of randomness? The D1 lynch is generally accepted to be more or less a crap shoot anyway - we’re just getting ourselves to D2 where we’ll have real information to go on. We now have real information - both about Pops and about MiX - with which to proceed through D1.

We’d have a lot more information if he’d waited until MiX had had more interactions that we could analyze. He shot before everyone had even posted.

[popsofctown]

Question for pops: you say you felt that using your power early in the day was better than later. Why not save the power for the start of a later day?

Something about my rolecard that I will not disclose either incentivizes or requires me to use the ability during day phase 1.   I would say if that were not the case, using the dayvig in this way is Strictly Better, because it closely mimics a nightvig.  (The odds of getting nightkilled before you can use it are pretty small)

[popsofctown]

I keep thinking it would be a crazy scum move. Getting lynched if you are wrong is very possible,  and losing a team member Day 1 is pretty terrible for scum. This is WIFOM, of course, but what would be the motive to take a risk like this? Town has the hope of fame and glory if they are right,  at least.

To me, pops comes off as an experienced enough player to do it for the WIFOM

Pops is experienced enough to do this as scum, yes. He’s also experienced enough to do this as Town if he felt it was the right play, and he’s not the type to solicit opinion first.

Pops is not scummy for having done this. You want my vote there, you’ll need to convince me why he wouldn’t have done this as Town, not why he might have done it as scum.

I mean the obvious answer is that it seems unlikely that he would have a strong enough read on mix at that point to justify shooting from the hip like that

There is no strength of read on player X where suddenly it is exciting to dayvig the player.  If I get a 90% scumread on X, then I want to lynch him and force his teammates to expose their Inability to bus.  Vig shots traditionally land on weaker reads for this reason.
Getting a player up to L-1 or L-serious and dayvigging at that point was something I thought about but it magnifies the exact game tempo disruption considerations I am concerned about. 

Keep in mind the theorycrafting point that the bar for vig to be 1 correct effectual usage is not "the target flipped scum".  The bar is actually, "the target either flipped scum or was going to be a mislynch at some point in the game.  Town now have an additional lynch.  That lynch will hit scum (because if it doesn't, town would have lost in either case).  I was taught this by a user just this year and it blew my mind, I applied it just two games later.