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Author Topic: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game Over - Mafia Wins!  (Read 149806 times)

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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 4!
« Reply #1275 on: November 21, 2019, 12:08:36 pm »

I'm not 100% on anyone any more.

The people I'm not interested in lynching today are Raerae, Joseph and LL.

I think we have a better than 50% chance on each of faust and Galz, but I would like to hear more about people insisting that it can't be both. I also just can't shake my general suspicion of faust enough to fully embrace the Eevee wagon, though if it comes to it, I'll trust the judgement of anyone I find townie enough.

I just don't know what to make of Maxford, though if he's scum he's doing well at this point. More posting with re-reads of some other players (particularly Galz and faust) would be nice if he has time and energy to do so, to help me get a better read. Though I think last time I checked, Galz still held the record for fewest posts of any living player in this game.
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faust

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 4!
« Reply #1276 on: November 21, 2019, 12:26:36 pm »

I don't quite understand what people are townreading raerae for, but I guess that's a battle for another day. Thinking about quickhammer stuff is kind of relevant, but it isn't as telling as people make it out to be. Scum probably don't know whether they can secure a win after a mislynch today, so they won't out themselves. One scum might opportunistically quickhammer, but I think a double or even triple quickhammer bears too many risks for them. Which is by the way another reason against no lynching today.
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faust

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 4!
« Reply #1277 on: November 21, 2019, 12:27:10 pm »

I'm not 100% on anyone any more.
Who were you 100% on?
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LaLight

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 4!
« Reply #1278 on: November 21, 2019, 12:35:18 pm »

I stood against quickhammering in the end because I believed Faust.
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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 4!
« Reply #1279 on: November 21, 2019, 12:35:40 pm »

Sorry for autocorrect, faust
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Joseph2302

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 4!
« Reply #1280 on: November 21, 2019, 01:04:20 pm »

I stood against quickhammering in the end because I believed Faust.
Surely faust and LL can't both be actual PRs?
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raerae

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 4!
« Reply #1281 on: November 21, 2019, 01:09:17 pm »

I stood against quickhammering in the end because I believed Faust.
Surely faust and LL can't both be actual PRs?

Good call. 

LL, do you believe faust has a PR?
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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 4!
« Reply #1282 on: November 21, 2019, 01:16:18 pm »

I stood against quickhammering in the end because I believed Faust.
Surely faust and LL can't both be actual PRs?

Good call. 

LL, do you believe faust has a PR?

I do, and I am a PR.
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raerae

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 4!
« Reply #1283 on: November 21, 2019, 01:52:14 pm »

faust, do you?
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faust

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 4!
« Reply #1284 on: November 21, 2019, 02:05:02 pm »

faust, do you?
Do I what? Believe that I have a PR?
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raerae

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 4!
« Reply #1285 on: November 21, 2019, 02:07:36 pm »

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faust

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 4!
« Reply #1286 on: November 21, 2019, 02:12:06 pm »

faust, do you?
Do I what? Believe that I have a PR?

Believe LL.
I think that LL is town. I also think it's perfectly reasonable to have 5 town PRs in the game given what we know so far.
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Joseph2302

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 4!
« Reply #1287 on: November 21, 2019, 02:29:19 pm »

faust, do you?
Do I what? Believe that I have a PR?

Believe LL.
I think that LL is town. I also think it's perfectly reasonable to have 5 town PRs in the game given what we know so far.
I guess that would balance a 10/4 game
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Eevee

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 4!
« Reply #1288 on: November 21, 2019, 03:16:52 pm »

One argument for a massclaim is that scum will surely know who to kill tonight even if we make it out alive. I guess they won't know which of them is more powerful if they are both town.
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Maxford

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 4!
« Reply #1289 on: November 21, 2019, 03:29:56 pm »

One argument for a massclaim is that scum will surely know who to kill tonight even if we make it out alive. I guess they won't know which of them is more powerful if they are both town.

What if one of them is not town? Faust is still my top scum read.

Or do you have any particular reasons to think they're both town?
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Eevee

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 4!
« Reply #1290 on: November 21, 2019, 03:34:55 pm »

One argument for a massclaim is that scum will surely know who to kill tonight even if we make it out alive. I guess they won't know which of them is more powerful if they are both town.

What if one of them is not town? Faust is still my top scum read.

Or do you have any particular reasons to think they're both town?
No, I just mean scum will know who to target at night. Which I guess is secondary at this hour to just reaching tomorrow somehow.

Definitely no reason to think both are town. I would say it's less than 50% if I had to handicap at the moment.
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raerae

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 4!
« Reply #1291 on: November 21, 2019, 05:04:14 pm »

One argument for a massclaim is that scum will surely know who to kill tonight even if we make it out alive. I guess they won't know which of them is more powerful if they are both town.

What if one of them is not town? Faust is still my top scum read.

Or do you have any particular reasons to think they're both town?

Nothing about today has changed that? You've been very quiet and there's definitely been enough to chat about. Care to share?
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 4!
« Reply #1292 on: November 21, 2019, 07:24:00 pm »

I'm not 100% on anyone any more.
Who were you 100% on?

I was really sold on Joth... also really wrong! I feel like I had a lot more confidence earlier in the game.
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Maxford

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 4!
« Reply #1293 on: November 21, 2019, 07:58:11 pm »

I would expect town!Space to have done that kind of analysis by now, but here is my attempt (I'm mainly using vote counts people posted, and I probably missed some):

#228: ADK(4): faust, raerare, joth, and Shraeye: there's probably scum in {faust, raerae}

#419: joth(4) : Galz, Space, LL, Shraeye => at least 1 scum in {Galz, Space, LL}

#504: Shraeye ( 8 ): Mix, ADK,WCD, joth, Maxford, faust, Joseph, Eevee : => at least 1 and probably at most 2 scum in {faust, Joseph, Eevee}

#699: Mix (3): Space, raerae, joth => at most 1 scum in {Space, raerae}

# 936: Joth (3): Raerae, Joseph, SA => at least 1 scum in {Raerae, Joseph, SA}

# 1185: Maxford(2): Eevee, Galzria => at least 1 scum in {Eevee, Galzria}

# 1194: Eevee(2) : faust, LL => either Eevee is scum or at least 1 scum in {faust, LL}

# 1241 Eevee(3) : faust, LL, raerae => either Eevee is scum, or at least 1 scum in {faust, LL, raerae} (alternatively, at most 2 scums in {Galzria, LL, Space})



There's still too many combinations of scum team possible (35 I believe?) for me to reliably solve this manually, but I believe this leaves the following possible scum teams (assuming all constraints are satisfied, which is not that likely):
-Galz, faust, raerae
-Galz, faust,  Space
-Galz, faust,  Joseph
-Galz, raerae, faust,
-Galz, raerae,  Joseph,
-Galz, Eevee, raerae, 
-raerae, Space, Eevee,
-LaLight, raerae,  Eevee

Now, I'm not sure one should take this exercise literally, (as in lynch the player who is in most teams) but this makes me dubious of Galz. However, based on interactions, the fact that faust hammered joth last day even though he had been defending him, that he seems to be misinterpreting what I say on purpose, I still think he's our most plausible way to find scum. For the moment, I would say, based on this analysis and interactions, that my most probable scum team is faust, Galz, Eevee (in this order).
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raerae

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 4!
« Reply #1294 on: November 21, 2019, 09:33:32 pm »

Well, are we no lynching then?  That seems like what the crickets are indicating.
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faust

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 4!
« Reply #1295 on: November 21, 2019, 10:34:05 pm »

I'm willing to cut Maxford some slack here as a newbie, but that wagon analysis was a mess.

#228: ADK(4): faust, raerare, joth, and Shraeye: there's probably scum in {faust, raerae}
[/quite]
What you're saying here is that a wagon of 2 people (me and raerae) on town must have had scum in it, since the two known scum joined later and thus could not have affected raerae's and my decision to be on that wagon.

#419: joth(4) : Galz, Space, LL, Shraeye => at least 1 scum in {Galz, Space, LL}
Similar problems, but a bit stronger since now we have 3 people.

#504: Shraeye ( 8 ): Mix, ADK,WCD, joth, Maxford, faust, Joseph, Eevee : => at least 1 and probably at most 2 scum in {faust, Joseph, Eevee}
It's really fallacious to take any conclusions from late-game wagon movement that is there to push a lynch through. People will join here based on availability, not alignment. It would be a different story if there had been a serious counterwagon, but there wasn't after joth claimed.

#699: Mix (3): Space, raerae, joth => at most 1 scum in {Space, raerae}
This is the worst offender; scum didn't even know MiX was one of them, how can you draw any conclusions here?

# 936: Joth (3): Raerae, Joseph, SA => at least 1 scum in {Raerae, Joseph, SA}
This one's fine as far as wagon analysis goes, but you still shouldn't 100% these, especially when there hasn't been a meaningful scum wagon.

# 1185: Maxford(2): Eevee, Galzria => at least 1 scum in {Eevee, Galzria}
Definitely makes sense from a town!Maxford POV, but it's not so much the fact that we had this wagon and more that this floated around as an option for a while.

# 1194: Eevee(2) : faust, LL => either Eevee is scum or at least 1 scum in {faust, LL}

# 1241 Eevee(3) : faust, LL, raerae => either Eevee is scum, or at least 1 scum in {faust, LL, raerae} (alternatively, at most 2 scums in {Galzria, LL, Space})
The first one is a strictly stronger statement than the second.
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faust

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 4!
« Reply #1296 on: November 21, 2019, 10:35:24 pm »

Sorry, messed up. You get the idea. Also, we should definitely lynch. Especially Space needs to make up their mind.
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faust

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 4!
« Reply #1297 on: November 21, 2019, 10:43:03 pm »

Though to be fair, I am also somewhat undecided on whether I'd lynch Maxford over no lynch. I think that will depend on how we get to a situation where I'd need to make that call.
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faust

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 4!
« Reply #1298 on: November 21, 2019, 10:44:57 pm »

Wait... after some review, no, I would not vote for Maxford today.
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raerae

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Day 4!
« Reply #1299 on: November 21, 2019, 10:47:21 pm »

Wait... after some review, no, I would not vote for Maxford today.

So you're team no lunch then?
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