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Author Topic: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game Over - Mafia Wins!  (Read 149781 times)

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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #175 on: October 22, 2019, 01:12:08 pm »

Also, do people have any confidence in the votes they're casting? Or are they just literally voting at random?
Generally speaking, there at this point votes are mostly "the average player has a 30.8% chance of being scum, I'm voting for a player that I think has a 35% chance of being scum". I wouldn't call that confidence, but it's not random either.

<3 for the fact that 30.8% is right :-)

Sad that it makes like a third of you be scum.. that does seem pretty harsh for town.
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Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #176 on: October 22, 2019, 01:12:43 pm »

Also, do people have any confidence in the votes they're casting? Or are they just literally voting at random?

Technical point: what happens if we don't reach a majority by the end of Day 1?

As everyone else has said...not random, but not a ton of confidence, either.  But that is kind of the nature of the start of the day. As folks accumulate votes, how they choose to respond can be illuminating, so everyone is watching everyone else, but there just isn't a whole lot to base a vote on other than what we generally know about each other.

Usually near the end of the Day, there will be coalescence around someone but most times we get it wrong (called a mislynch) and they turn out to be town (wah wah). But every now and again we get it right and they flip scum, but we can't talk since the thread gets locked and the Night begins and we all have to do the Happy Dance of Victory by ourselves.
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MiX

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #177 on: October 22, 2019, 01:13:40 pm »

@ Maxford Are you keeping up with the game? Is this (the game) intimidating to you?

(I think you're doing fine, fwiw!)

Thanks! I suppose I'm keeping up, trying to figure out that the norms are.

I'm a bit surprised that people are casting votes so quickly in the game: I would have thought that in the absence of strong information, lynching would be favorable to scum people because
1) they have information from day 1 (right?),
2) if we're mistaken and end up lynching a town person (which in the absence of strong evidence is more likely to happen than the reverse), they have one less person to kill.

Of course, there might be value in getting people to talk and casting vote is a good way to start this, so maybe it's a good idea after all.

If there's something I'm failing to see here?

Hmmmmmmm, if we don't lynch scum we lose, so we have to lynch eventually...there's no reason to give up on day 1 just because it's the day where you least likely lynch scum, because since the possibility is there you can gather a ton of information which is useful to find scum in the following days.

Overall interaction = good, and votes = interaction.

I voted for ADK because I trust faust and raerae (to a degree) and because he's a better lynch right now than Didds (where I was before). It's day 1, what do you want?

Oh. What's your read on ADK then?

Also, do people have any confidence in the votes they're casting? Or are they just literally voting at random?

Technical point: what happens if we don't reach a majority by the end of Day 1?

As everyone else has said...not random, but not a ton of confidence, either.  But that is kind of the nature of the start of the day. As folks accumulate votes, how they choose to respond can be illuminating, so everyone is watching everyone else, but there just isn't a whole lot to base a vote on other than what we generally know about each other.

Usually near the end of the Day, there will be coalescence around someone but most times we get it wrong (called a mislynch) and they turn out to be town (wah wah). But every now and again we get it right and they flip scum, but we can't talk since the thread gets locked and the Night begins and we all have to do the Happy Dance of Victory by ourselves.

Celebrate with the mod! I'm sure they'll be thrilled.
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jotheonah

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #178 on: October 22, 2019, 01:15:07 pm »

@ Maxford Are you keeping up with the game? Is this (the game) intimidating to you?

(I think you're doing fine, fwiw!)

Thanks! I suppose I'm keeping up, trying to figure out that the norms are.

I'm a bit surprised that people are casting votes so quickly in the game: I would have thought that in the absence of strong information, lynching would be favorable to scum people because
1) they have information from day 1 (right?),
2) if we're mistaken and end up lynching a town person (which in the absence of strong evidence is more likely to happen than the reverse), they have one less person to kill.

Of course, there might be value in getting people to talk and casting vote is a good way to start this, so maybe it's a good idea after all.

If there's something I'm failing to see here?

This is a pretty common way of thinking for new town. So here's another way of thinking of it:

Scum has a weapon they can use to kill. It's the night kill.

Town has a weapon that they can use to kill. It's the lynch.

If town no lynches a lot because they don't have strong reads, we're basically choosing to keep our weapon holstered while the person that we're dueling is firing theirs as fast as they can.

Secondarily, how do we find scum if not by engaging in a process that forces people to commit to reads and arguments?

It's sort of counterintuitive, but voting a lot is good for town. Even a day 1 town lynch (which is the norm) is good for town because we can then look at who the top contributors were to that lynch, who looked like they maybe knew how it was going to end, who tried to turn the lynch away from someone else, etc., etc. If we no-lynch we get none of that.
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jotheonah

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #179 on: October 22, 2019, 01:18:35 pm »

Oh. What's your read on ADK then?

Slight scum, mainly because he hasn't done anything particularly towny and his behavior is all reasonably consistent with day 1 scum. What's yours?
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MiX

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #180 on: October 22, 2019, 01:23:47 pm »

Oh. What's your read on ADK then?

Slight scum, mainly because he hasn't done anything particularly towny and his behavior is all reasonably consistent with day 1 scum. What's yours?

Null? I haven't setup my reads list this game so I haven't sorted him yet. But I think it's null.
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Eevee

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #181 on: October 22, 2019, 01:51:16 pm »

@ Maxford Are you keeping up with the game? Is this (the game) intimidating to you?

(I think you're doing fine, fwiw!)

Thanks! I suppose I'm keeping up, trying to figure out that the norms are.

I'm a bit surprised that people are casting votes so quickly in the game: I would have thought that in the absence of strong information, lynching would be favorable to scum people because
1) they have information from day 1 (right?),
2) if we're mistaken and end up lynching a town person (which in the absence of strong evidence is more likely to happen than the reverse), they have one less person to kill.

Of course, there might be value in getting people to talk and casting vote is a good way to start this, so maybe it's a good idea after all.

If there's something I'm failing to see here?
Yup, this line of thinking is towny from Maxford. Sharp new players very often get this idea. Town would have more reason to think about it than scum, so.

I would say the biggest thing is you're underestimating how much it helps us to have scum use their night kill unless we lynch. We'd be in pretty much the same boat tomorrow after nolynching, except scum would control an even higher proportion of the votes. There are a lot of informational benefits for the day 1 lynch, and if he do happen to hit mafia (hey, the odds are pretty good here!), it's absolutely amazing. I'd be interested in seeing town's winrate after correct day 1 lynches, it must be very high. And in the (more likely) event we hit town, hopefully some people will manage to show their towniness in the process, while others will act suspiciously and we can make better decisions tomorrow (and help our pr's for tonight too!).
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MiX

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #182 on: October 22, 2019, 01:52:39 pm »

It's official: LaLight and Eevee are one and the same to me. I hadn't even noticed LL only had 3 posts!

Vote: LaLight
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LaLight

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #183 on: October 22, 2019, 04:00:15 pm »

It's official: LaLight and Eevee are one and the same to me. I hadn't even noticed LL only had 3 posts!

Vote: LaLight

This is officially the best compliment I have heard on this forum.
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shraeye

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #184 on: October 22, 2019, 04:49:49 pm »

@ Maxford Are you keeping up with the game? Is this (the game) intimidating to you?

(I think you're doing fine, fwiw!)

Thanks! I suppose I'm keeping up, trying to figure out that the norms are.

I'm a bit surprised that people are casting votes so quickly in the game: I would have thought that in the absence of strong information, lynching would be favorable to scum people because
1) they have information from day 1 (right?),
2) if we're mistaken and end up lynching a town person (which in the absence of strong evidence is more likely to happen than the reverse), they have one less person to kill.

Of course, there might be value in getting people to talk and casting vote is a good way to start this, so maybe it's a good idea after all.

If there's something I'm failing to see here?
People have pointed out deeper interactions.  But let this be the first time you hear me say (definitely not the last time you hear me say) that intentionally not lynching can also be the right move at times.  Everybody here should admit that there exist potential situations where it is morally/mathematically/spiritually the right move. 

Many people disagree with my stance that, in certain circumstances, it is a reasonable option on day 1.

-MiX's argument that if we never lynch we lose is slippery slope fallacy; joth's case is better
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Xxraptorslayer96

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - All Full Up - Delayed Start
« Reply #185 on: October 22, 2019, 04:51:26 pm »

Hello all! Sorry for lagging. I’m Raptor, if you have any questions fell free to ask away. I was planning on getting to all of this last night when Galz took Swan and I out to drink. After copious amounts of alcohol, that never happened. So I will finally read up tonight.


vote: Raptor

I’m not scum, therefore he must be.


Also this is something scum would do Vote: Gaz
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Xxraptorslayer96

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #186 on: October 22, 2019, 04:52:19 pm »

Vote: Galz auto-correct  :P
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MiX

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #187 on: October 22, 2019, 04:54:13 pm »

-MiX's argument that if we never lynch we lose is slippery slope fallacy; joth's case is better

I wasn't making a case for lynching, but for trying to lynch. Trying to lynch is pro-town because otherwise scum never has pressure and thus nothing is alignment indicative.
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MiX

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - All Full Up - Delayed Start
« Reply #188 on: October 22, 2019, 04:55:15 pm »

Hello all! Sorry for lagging. I’m Raptor, if you have any questions fell free to ask away. I was planning on getting to all of this last night when Galz took Swan and I out to drink. After copious amounts of alcohol, that never happened. So I will finally read up tonight.

How much are you going to lurk?

vote: Raptor

I’m not scum, therefore he must be.


Also this is something scum would do Vote: Gaz

So would town.
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Joseph2302

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - All Full Up - Delayed Start
« Reply #189 on: October 22, 2019, 05:52:56 pm »

Hello all! Sorry for lagging. I’m Raptor, if you have any questions fell free to ask away. I was planning on getting to all of this last night when Galz took Swan and I out to drink. After copious amounts of alcohol, that never happened. So I will finally read up tonight.

How much are you going to lurk?

vote: Raptor

I’m not scum, therefore he must be.


Also this is something scum would do Vote: Gaz

So would town.
I plan to lurk all game because I'm town
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Joseph2302

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #190 on: October 22, 2019, 05:53:54 pm »

And last game I was super active and got our only PR killed. As an effective IC.
Not bitter about it, but just realise my reads can be terrible
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MiX

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #191 on: October 22, 2019, 05:55:36 pm »

And last game I was super active and got our only PR killed. As an effective IC.
Not bitter about it, but just realise my reads can be terrible

When was that? Ooooooooh right. Right. I forgot about that game. Wish I had completely forgot, actually. Not your fault.

I didn't ask you tho.
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Galzria

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #192 on: October 22, 2019, 06:16:43 pm »

@ Space: no I didn't remember that you explained what PPE means but...

@ Mix: thanks for the link, it's very useful!

Also, do people have any confidence in the votes they're casting? Or are they just literally voting at random?

Technical point: what happens if we don't reach a majority by the end of Day 1?
90% random for me still. The goal is to make it less and less random as the day progresses, but I must admit, at least for me, day 1 is very tough.

Fwiw, we have 6 days left. The deadline is 28th. I believe we have some people still MIA, at least Galzria hasn't posted yet.

Pfft - haven’t posted yet? I cast the first vote of the game!

Vote: Space - while I understand the reasoning behind their “no-lynch D1 passes” list, it’s lazy and something I could very much see scum!Space going to allow themselves the freedom to not make real reads - something Space knows isn’t their strong suit, especially D1 before any real data is available.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

MiX

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #193 on: October 22, 2019, 06:19:26 pm »

@ Space: no I didn't remember that you explained what PPE means but...

@ Mix: thanks for the link, it's very useful!

Also, do people have any confidence in the votes they're casting? Or are they just literally voting at random?

Technical point: what happens if we don't reach a majority by the end of Day 1?
90% random for me still. The goal is to make it less and less random as the day progresses, but I must admit, at least for me, day 1 is very tough.

Fwiw, we have 6 days left. The deadline is 28th. I believe we have some people still MIA, at least Galzria hasn't posted yet.

Pfft - haven’t posted yet? I cast the first vote of the game!

Vote: Space - while I understand the reasoning behind their “no-lynch D1 passes” list, it’s lazy and something I could very much see scum!Space going to allow themselves the freedom to not make real reads - something Space knows isn’t their strong suit, especially D1 before any real data is available.

I don't get it, how does this help scum!Space in a way that doesn't also help town!Space?
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #194 on: October 22, 2019, 06:46:23 pm »

I think I like Eevee's responds to Maxford's post better than Joth's.

Compare Joth's "This is a pretty common way of thinking for new town" to Eevee's "Yup, this line of thinking is towny from Maxford". The first seems to be a statement of fact that just assumes Maxford is town. The latter does feel the need to comment on the very relevant intermediate fact that Maxford sounds townie for it. Why does Joth skip that?

PPE 10 because I had dinner with Maxford so I had to leave this post half-written in my browser all that time :-P
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Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #195 on: October 22, 2019, 06:54:31 pm »

Vote count 1.1   

        ADK (3): faust, raerae, Joth
        Shraeye(1): ADK
        Joth(1): LaLight,
        LaLight(1): MiX
        Raptor(1): Space
        Galzria(1): Raptor
        Space (1): Galz
        MiX (1): Didds
        Didds (1): Joseph
        raerae (1): Eevee

Not Voting (2): Maxford, Shraeye

With 14 players alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

Day 1 ends on October 28th at 1:40pm EST.
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real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #196 on: October 22, 2019, 06:55:30 pm »

Everyone, I am doing my Vote Counts by hand. Please feel free to call out any errors you see and I will correct them.
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Eevee

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #197 on: October 22, 2019, 06:56:28 pm »

vote: joth
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #198 on: October 22, 2019, 06:57:52 pm »

while I understand the reasoning behind their “no-lynch D1 passes” list, it’s lazy and something I could very much see scum!Space going to allow themselves the freedom to not make real reads - something Space knows isn’t their strong suit, especially D1 before any real data is available.

I think you're saying that I deliberately said more than I needed to about unwillingness to lynch certain players, because that will somehow excuse me from needing to do reads. How does that mechanism work?

I think by declaring intent on a few D1 passes, I've mostly just concentrated my problem in to a tougher-to-read lynchpool than I would otherwise have had, since the real hard ones to read for me are people like you, Joth and Shraeye.

Anyway, you're certainly right that I find D1 hard and D1 reads very shaky.
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Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

Galzria

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Re: M125: Poker Mafia! - Game has Started!!!
« Reply #199 on: October 22, 2019, 06:59:16 pm »

@ Space: no I didn't remember that you explained what PPE means but...

@ Mix: thanks for the link, it's very useful!

Also, do people have any confidence in the votes they're casting? Or are they just literally voting at random?

Technical point: what happens if we don't reach a majority by the end of Day 1?
90% random for me still. The goal is to make it less and less random as the day progresses, but I must admit, at least for me, day 1 is very tough.

Fwiw, we have 6 days left. The deadline is 28th. I believe we have some people still MIA, at least Galzria hasn't posted yet.

Pfft - haven’t posted yet? I cast the first vote of the game!

Vote: Space - while I understand the reasoning behind their “no-lynch D1 passes” list, it’s lazy and something I could very much see scum!Space going to allow themselves the freedom to not make real reads - something Space knows isn’t their strong suit, especially D1 before any real data is available.

I don't get it, how does this help scum!Space in a way that doesn't also help town!Space?

Town!Space wants to find scum, and thus free passes are purely anti-scum hunting. Scum!Space wants to avoid making as many “real” reads as possible, because doing so is hard to fake - especially for someone whose approach is so logic and data driven.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20
Pages: 1 ... 6 7 [8] 9 10 ... 56  All
 

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