Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[jotheonah]

So DatSwan claimed scum? Okay then.

Vote: DatSwan

did you read what I said like at all?

Why is what you claimed any different than what a Bolos would claim here?

I suppose they wouldn't of given your off hand comment as much weight. They probably also would then try to attack you and say you are lying.

I claimed it right away because your lurky non-commitment style of play is either skum!Galz or town!Galz with value. As you used the exact words "Not Gatewatch Aligned" instead of "Skum", I could either ignore it or get into it.

If I ignore it, and you ever flip (assuming you are town) - I get lynched. Getting ahead of it was the only way I could think of that may actually have have a scenario in it where I live.

Wouldn't scum!Swan use exactly the same thought process though?

[jotheonah]

What's the play here if we take Swan at his word? Survivors can definitely be a liability in the late game, especially if it gets close. We had an example of that fairly recently I believe, in the gladiator game. On the other hand, I'd rather lynch scum.

[Galzria]

So DatSwan claimed scum? Okay then.

Vote: DatSwan

did you read what I said like at all?

Why is what you claimed any different than what a Bolos would claim here?

I suppose they wouldn't of given your off hand comment as much weight. They probably also would then try to attack you and say you are lying.

I claimed it right away because your lurky non-commitment style of play is either skum!Galz or town!Galz with value. As you used the exact words "Not Gatewatch Aligned" instead of "Skum", I could either ignore it or get into it.

If I ignore it, and you ever flip (assuming you are town) - I get lynched. Getting ahead of it was the only way I could think of that may actually have have a scenario in it where I live.

Naw, it’s RMM - everybody has something they can do. I’m just lurky because I feel I have better reads overall when I’m less engaged and more oversight-y (example: I’m generally extremely good at finding scum when I spectate games and can’t do anything about it).

I think you “getting out ahead of it because it’s the only way you could possibly survive” fits just as well if you’re Bolos: You would make the same assumptions - if I flip at any point and show I’m Town you know you’re done for anyway - and you would believe, rightly so, that you couldn’t just ignore it in the “now” as I wasn’t likely to drop it.

[Galzria]

What's the play here if we take Swan at his word? Survivors can definitely be a liability in the late game, especially if it gets close. We had an example of that fairly recently I believe, in the gladiator game. On the other hand, I'd rather lynch scum.

I would put it at reasonably equally possible that he’s either.

If he’s Bolos, punching him now is 100% the right play.
If he’s Survivor, then it’s better to lynch Bolos than him, but the more Gatewatch that die the more Bolos aligned he becomes and the worse it is that he continues to live.

He also rolled Survivor like, three games ago, and I just don’t believe he did so again here.

[Swowl]

So DatSwan claimed scum? Okay then.

Vote: DatSwan

did you read what I said like at all?

Why is what you claimed any different than what a Bolos would claim here?

I suppose they wouldn't of given your off hand comment as much weight. They probably also would then try to attack you and say you are lying.

I claimed it right away because your lurky non-commitment style of play is either skum!Galz or town!Galz with value. As you used the exact words "Not Gatewatch Aligned" instead of "Skum", I could either ignore it or get into it.

If I ignore it, and you ever flip (assuming you are town) - I get lynched. Getting ahead of it was the only way I could think of that may actually have have a scenario in it where I live.

Wouldn't scum!Swan use exactly the same thought process though?

yeah to an extent.

I mean I would probably try to gun for Galz first and get the trade, right? I feel like that would be the skum play. Yeah even if it works then I get lynched next, but I would be taking it from more of a "team mindset" if I had "team mates".

Instead... it just me. If I die, nothing else matters, my win con instantly becomes not-achievable.

[Galzria]

What's the play here if we take Swan at his word? Survivors can definitely be a liability in the late game, especially if it gets close. We had an example of that fairly recently I believe, in the gladiator game. On the other hand, I'd rather lynch scum.

I would put it at reasonably equally possible that he’s either.

If he’s Bolos, lynching him now is 100% the right play.
If he’s Survivor, then it’s better to lynch Bolos than him, but the more Gatewatch that die the more Bolos aligned he becomes and the worse it is that he continues to live.

He also rolled Survivor like, three games ago, and I just don’t believe he did so again here.

EBWOP

[Swowl]

What's the play here if we take Swan at his word? Survivors can definitely be a liability in the late game, especially if it gets close. We had an example of that fairly recently I believe, in the gladiator game. On the other hand, I'd rather lynch scum.

I would put it at reasonably equally possible that he’s either.

If he’s Bolos, punching him now is 100% the right play.
If he’s Survivor, then it’s better to lynch Bolos than him, but the more Gatewatch that die the more Bolos aligned he becomes and the worse it is that he continues to live.

He also rolled Survivor like, three games ago, and I just don’t believe he did so again here.

don't punch me that is just rude (kidding, saw the EBWOP)

also, you have played with me a lot. this is absolutely not how I would role this off as skum. yes yes, I would say that if I were skum yadda yadda. but for real.

[EFHW]

What's the play here if we take Swan at his word? Survivors can definitely be a liability in the late game, especially if it gets close. We had an example of that fairly recently I believe, in the gladiator game. On the other hand, I'd rather lynch scum.

I would put it at reasonably equally possible that he’s either.

If he’s Bolos, punching him now is 100% the right play.
If he’s Survivor, then it’s better to lynch Bolos than him, but the more Gatewatch that die the more Bolos aligned he becomes and the worse it is that he continues to live.

I think we need to lynch him. There is the possibility he is Bolos-aligned, though I'm inclined to believe him here. And we would probably mislynch today instead and then, like you said, he becomes more Bolos-aligned.

vote: DatSwan

[faust]

Honestly, seeing how long it took for the Survivor thing to come out, I'm inclined to believe that the delay was DatSwan trying to figure out a reasonable fakeclaim. If DatSwan was really super concerned about surviving, he wouldn't just throw a "I'm not town" out there and not clarify for an hour.

[faust]

He also rolled Survivor like, three games ago, and I just don’t believe he did so again here.

I want to lynch Swan, but I also want to point out that this is nonsensical reasoning and whether Swan has been Survivor recently has no impact whatsoever on whether he is this time around.

[jotheonah]

He also rolled Survivor like, three games ago, and I just don’t believe he did so again here.

Isn't this like a classic probability fallacy? Like "winning the lottery twice is much more unlikely than winning the lottery once, but once you've won once you're exactly as likely to win again as anybody else"? I feel like I learned about this in stats.

[Swowl]

Honestly, seeing how long it took for the Survivor thing to come out, I'm inclined to believe that the delay was DatSwan trying to figure out a reasonable fakeclaim. If DatSwan was really super concerned about surviving, he wouldn't just throw a "I'm not town" out there and not clarify for an hour.

Your like half right. The delay wasn't to create a fake claim, it was to decide how much of my role to reveal. Which I am currently reconsidering.

Also I was walking to get coffee, which took like 30 minutes.

[Galzria]

He also rolled Survivor like, three games ago, and I just don’t believe he did so again here.

I want to lynch Swan, but I also want to point out that this is nonsensical reasoning and whether Swan has been Survivor recently has no impact whatsoever on whether he is this time around.

Duh.

[Galzria]

He also rolled Survivor like, three games ago, and I just don’t believe he did so again here.

Isn't this like a classic probability fallacy? Like "winning the lottery twice is much more unlikely than winning the lottery once, but once you've won once you're exactly as likely to win again as anybody else"? I feel like I learned about this in stats.

Yes. It’s purely an emotional point, not a logical one.

[jotheonah]

So rn we're at 12 people, right? We don't know how many scum there is, but four seems like the most there could be.

So if we lynch non-scum survivor today and then scum shoots town tonight, we start tomorrow with 10 players, 6 town and 4 scum, which is definitely MyLo.

If we try to lynch scum and miss though, we start tomorrow with 10 players --5 town, 4 scum, and a survivor. That's worse than LyLo. As soon as any townie votes for another townie, theoretically scum + swan could quick hammer for the win. Admittedly, that would be hard to coordinate for them.

If we lynch scum successfully, of course, then we're in a much better spot. But that's almost worth leaving out of the analysis, since Swan could be scum, so there's a chance of hitting scum either way.

[gkrieg13]

vote: Datswan

[Glooble]

Ral Zarek was not exagerrating about the blast radius, thought the Centaur, as soon as it was safe to stop and catch his breath.

The two surrounding buildings had been demolished.

The zombie hippo was still standing.

"Well, shit," said Ral.

Vote Count 2.5

DatSwan (5): Galzria, raerae, faust, EFHW, grkrieg
LaLight (1): Awaclus
Jimmmmmmm (3): UncleEurope, DatSwan, shraeye
shraeye (3): jotheonah, LaLight, Jimmmmmmmm

With 12 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The day will end at 6:30 pm on Thursday, October 24th. That's in about 4 hours.

[Swowl]

So rn we're at 12 people, right? We don't know how many scum there is, but four seems like the most there could be.

So if we lynch non-scum survivor today and then scum shoots town tonight, we start tomorrow with 10 players, 6 town and 4 scum, which is definitely MyLo.

If we try to lynch scum and miss though, we start tomorrow with 10 players --5 town, 4 scum, and a survivor. That's worse than LyLo. As soon as any townie votes for another townie, theoretically scum + swan could quick hammer for the win. Admittedly, that would be hard to coordinate for them.

If we lynch scum successfully, of course, then we're in a much better spot. But that's almost worth leaving out of the analysis, since Swan could be scum, so there's a chance of hitting scum either way.

def not the pressing matter right now, but I suppose I should point some things out here if they could help me:

1) My text color is NOT in a color (just standard black).
2) My Role PM states that I can win alongside Gatewatch or Bolos. It does NOT mention anything about Nemisis, or any other faction.

so, that's what I know about me. When I take that, and add it up with....

1) the fact that WCD flipped color proof
2) The Nemesis faction had the need for a Doctor


.... Kind of makes me think there are not that many skum. Or if they are, they are on two different teams. If there were 4 Bolos, 2 Nemesis, 1 Survivor, and 8 Gatewatch... that would be starting the game at essentially 8 town vs 7 other... which seems skewed.

[Swowl]

damnit.

There is no not skummy way to say this.

Someone unvote me for a second.

[Swowl]

at L-1 I don't have a choice, I am just gonna claim out. chill for a second.

[Swowl]

I am Liliana Vess, Even-night Necromancer Survivor. I am a Human that uses Black Mana from Dominaria.

I can use a power of a dead player on even nights.

So, if we want to do something with that, you guys could like choose who you want to not die tonight, and I can use Pubby's doc shot on that player. Or whatever, that is just an idea.

And here is the super skummy part I am praying to FDS-Jesus someone has the ability to confirm...

My role contains the words "your alignment may become Gatewatch if certain criteria are met".

[faust]

My role contains the words "your alignment may become Gatewatch if certain criteria are met".

Can we get a modkill?

3. Direct or verbatim quoting of mod-provided information is strictly forbidden. Paraphrasing is okay. If you are not sure about your paraphrase, ask the mod first.

[faust]

unvote

I want to see the rules violation taken care of first. Maybe we don't need to lynch here.

[Swowl]

That is all I got.

The whole "can be changed to Gatewatch" thing was the main reason I was so quick to claim. I am assuming it will take some amount of signaling to someone to get it to happen.

At this point I would plead to pick someone else today.

1) I can get turned into Town, I have no idea how that happens, but if it does that could be a pretty nice swing after a pretty bad start.
2) Once I flip, Galz is essentially a conf!cop. I can use Pubby to keep him alive which gives Town somewhere between an MIC and an IC tomorrow.

[Swowl]

My role contains the words "your alignment may become Gatewatch if certain criteria are met".

Can we get a modkill?

3. Direct or verbatim quoting of mod-provided information is strictly forbidden. Paraphrasing is okay. If you are not sure about your paraphrase, ask the mod first.

I purposely changed the exact wording of the quote so I would not break the rule. I did not copy paste.