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Author Topic: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (Game over! Scum wins flawlessly.)  (Read 107353 times)

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Swowl

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Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« Reply #450 on: October 18, 2019, 06:00:11 am »

But if Shraeye's town and raerae is scum, why would she be upset that Shraeye might get lynched?

I have answered this numerous times in detail to this point - but to summarize. I think that Rae was lying because at the time of their efforts they were either a) not someone that MiX wanted to target or b) it was today (after the fact) and there was no threat. So it looks towny.

There was NO CHANGE IN INTERACTION BETWEEN SHRAYE-MIX-RAE between the time Rae thought Shraeye was skum and the time Rae was defending Shraeye.

That is the point in it's entirety. People go from reading town to skum and skum to town and everything in between... but usually there are reasons. There was no reason here. In fact if anything, there was the reverse of reason, for Rae to switch a read on Shraeye from Skum to Town given the action between Rae's votes.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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Swowl

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Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« Reply #451 on: October 18, 2019, 06:04:44 am »

Vote: joth

Why joth over DatSwan when they're basically making the same argument?

This.

Also, you prefer Swan. Also 2x, Rae, vote Swan with me.

So you and faust are just what? like phoning it in this game?
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Awaclus

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Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« Reply #452 on: October 18, 2019, 06:05:17 am »

Vote: DatSwan
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Swowl

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Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« Reply #453 on: October 18, 2019, 06:05:32 am »

Vote: joth

Why joth over DatSwan when they're basically making the same argument?

This.

Also, you prefer Swan. Also 2x, Rae, vote Swan with me.

So you and faust are just what? like phoning it in this game?

if you want to lynch me at least pretend to be towny and do some work.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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jotheonah

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Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« Reply #454 on: October 18, 2019, 07:05:34 am »

Faust, if I think shraeye and Rae are partners, why is one any better or worse than the other?

“You day you like chocolate AND vanilla but the ice cream you’re currently eating right now is only chocolate. Lying scum.”
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faust

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Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« Reply #455 on: October 18, 2019, 07:25:00 am »

The worst case was a figure of speech as in “you chose to defend Shraeye when the worst case at the time was me (which if you are skum, would still be good for you).”
Your reasoning kinda fails in that if shraeye/you are both town, then the actual worst case for scum!raerae is noone getting shot, which is exactly what she argued for...
Isn't he arguing that raerae and Shraeye are both scum?
Yes, but he hasn't presented arguments that shraeye is scum, instead making arguments that raerae is scum that rely on shraeye being scum.
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faust

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Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« Reply #456 on: October 18, 2019, 07:26:14 am »

Vote: joth

Why joth over DatSwan when they're basically making the same argument?
I've ben voting DatSwan before. But they're not making exactly the same argument - DatSwan doesn't necessarily think that shraeye is scum - and I've found DatSwan's take a bit more believable.
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faust

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Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« Reply #457 on: October 18, 2019, 07:29:25 am »

DatSwan, any comment on this?

The worst case was a figure of speech as in “you chose to defend Shraeye when the worst case at the time was me (which if you are skum, would still be good for you).”
Your reasoning kinda fails in that if shraeye/you are both town, then the actual worst case for scum!raerae is noone getting shot, which is exactly what she argued for...
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jotheonah

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Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« Reply #458 on: October 18, 2019, 08:18:47 am »

I'm so tired of being mischaracterized my faust.

I am voting raerae because it's raerae's behavior that is odd and rings scummy.

The case for that behavior being scummy is neater if shraeye is scum.

But there is still a case there is shraeye is town.

The shraeye-is-town version basically relies on raerae panicking and making a suboptimal decision. But that is totally believable:

-- Things were moving fast at the end of the day
-- MiX's demeanor created a sense of urgency
-- Coming out hard against using the power AT ALL was the safe bet, because it had less possibility of backfiring

raerae's priority was to keep MiX from shooting. Everyone else's priority was to try to direct his shot to their scumreads. I think that's because her priority was to avoid her worst case scenario: MiX shooting scum.

faust, is this clear? All of this works regardless of shraeye's alignment. It is neater if they're partners, and I have additional evidence that they are partners (their not very convincing day 1 animosity) so that's what I think is most likely.

I note that you haven't really tried to address or refute the notion that raerae and shraeye are partners at all, instead framing it as prima facie scummy/stupid. It is not.

TL;DR My case on raerae does NOT depend on shraeye being scum, but I do think it's likely they're both scum, and faust is being unhelpful and disingenuous, so I honestly wouldn't rule out the three of them being the scum team.
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EFHW

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Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« Reply #459 on: October 18, 2019, 08:50:42 am »

But if Shraeye's town and raerae is scum, why would she be upset that Shraeye might get lynched?

I have answered this numerous times in detail to this point - but to summarize. I think that Rae was lying because at the time of their efforts they were either a) not someone that MiX wanted to target or b) it was today (after the fact) and there was no threat. So it looks towny.

There was NO CHANGE IN INTERACTION BETWEEN SHRAYE-MIX-RAE between the time Rae thought Shraeye was skum and the time Rae was defending Shraeye.

That is the point in it's entirety. People go from reading town to skum and skum to town and everything in between... but usually there are reasons. There was no reason here. In fact if anything, there was the reverse of reason, for Rae to switch a read on Shraeye from Skum to Town given the action between Rae's votes.
Sorry for the repeated question.  But this theory doesn't make sense unless they are both scum, but you keep insisting that is not your conclusion. I agree that the switch is weird, but to me the best explanation is that she never had a scumread on Shraeye in the first place.
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Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« Reply #460 on: October 18, 2019, 08:54:55 am »

@joth, you gave MiX similar advice - only shoot if >50% sure. But then you gave him permission not to take it. I don't read raerae as panicking at all.

vote: joth
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jotheonah

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Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« Reply #461 on: October 18, 2019, 09:35:11 am »

@joth, you gave MiX similar advice - only shoot if >50% sure. But then you gave him permission not to take it. I don't read raerae as panicking at all.

vote: joth

I'm not sure how "shoot at someone if you think they're scum" and "don't shoot" are similar advice. To me they seem very different.
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jotheonah

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Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« Reply #462 on: October 18, 2019, 09:36:19 am »

Also, man, for people who are overly concerned about my scum case being intricately laid out, you and faust sure are voting for me for no stated reason other than that you disagree with me.
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EFHW

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Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 1)
« Reply #463 on: October 18, 2019, 09:38:34 am »

Here's the advice:

I also think that you shouldn't shoot unless you're better than 50% sure they're scum but you seem unreceptive to that idea.
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Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« Reply #464 on: October 18, 2019, 09:41:30 am »

Also, man, for people who are overly concerned about my scum case being intricately laid out, you and faust sure are voting for me for no stated reason other than that you disagree with me.

The advice looks different, but since there is no way to be >50% sure on Day 1, it's equivalent to raerae's. But you are making a scum case on her based on the advice she gave.

What are the chances that raerae has a legit scumread on Shraeye at the start of EVERY game?
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jotheonah

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Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« Reply #465 on: October 18, 2019, 09:50:43 am »

there is no way to be >50% sure on Day 1

citation needed.

Like, 50% sure is kind of a squishy figure and I'm sure you and I and MiX think of it differently, but I definitely wasn't thinking of it as something impossible and I doubt MiX was. 50% is a fairly low bar. Assuming a 4-person scum team and 15 players, your prior should be 28%. Fifty is much closer to that then to 100.

What are the chances that raerae has a legit scumread on Shraeye at the start of EVERY game?

She always RVS votes shraeye but this was more than that.
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raerae

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Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« Reply #466 on: October 18, 2019, 10:00:13 am »

Vote: joth

Why joth over DatSwan when they're basically making the same argument?

This.

Also, you prefer Swan. Also 2x, Rae, vote Swan with me.

Why?
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faust

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Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« Reply #467 on: October 18, 2019, 10:45:08 am »

Like, 50% sure is kind of a squishy figure and I'm sure you and I and MiX think of it differently, but I definitely wasn't thinking of it as something impossible and I doubt MiX was. 50% is a fairly low bar. Assuming a 4-person scum team and 15 players, your prior should be 28%. Fifty is much closer to that then to 100.
Out of all the games that I played, I only remember one where I was more than 50% sure that someone was scum by the end of D1. That's saying that someone is twice as likely to be scum as the average player, by your numbers, which is a pretty big leap. If people were regularly at 50% for their D1 reads, then scum would be lynched on about 50% of all D1s.

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gkrieg13

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Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« Reply #468 on: October 18, 2019, 10:48:30 am »

Pubby and I were nemeses. I could not win with him alive, but when he died I become aligned with town. My guess is that it was the same for him.
Do you have any insight into what pubby was going for with his voting? Do you have any voting-related abilities?

I have no idea and no
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Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« Reply #469 on: October 18, 2019, 10:49:48 am »

Pubby and I were nemeses. I could not win with him alive, but when he died I become aligned with town. My guess is that it was the same for him.

Was he named in your pm?

Yes
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Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« Reply #470 on: October 18, 2019, 10:58:32 am »

vote: Awaclus
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Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« Reply #471 on: October 18, 2019, 11:02:55 am »

Pubby and I were nemeses. I could not win with him alive, but when he died I become aligned with town. My guess is that it was the same for him.

Was he named in your pm?

Yes

So presumably you were also named in his but he never voted for you. And he claimed he got night actions depending on how he voted but you got assigned to town once he was out of the way. Do I have to facts right?

Why the Awaclus vote?
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faust

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Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« Reply #472 on: October 18, 2019, 11:04:58 am »

I'm so tired of being mischaracterized my faust.

I am voting raerae because it's raerae's behavior that is odd and rings scummy.

The case for that behavior being scummy is neater if shraeye is scum.

But there is still a case there is shraeye is town.

The shraeye-is-town version basically relies on raerae panicking and making a suboptimal decision.
I'll try to explain my problems as concisely as I can. There's a case for raerae being scum if shraeye is scum, fair. There is evidence that points towards raerae being scum in that case.

But the "case" if shraeye is town is not a case at all. It's not argument for raerae to be scum, it's merely (an attempt at) invalidating an argument for why she's town. There is no positive evidence of her scumminess in that case.

What also bothers me here is that in the scum!shraeye scenario you posit that scum!raerae kept it calm under pressure and did the thing that benefits her team. Yet in the town!shraeye scenario, you suggest that she's panicking (when there's no reason to panic). These are wildly different reactions, how do both of them fit raerae's meta?

I note that you haven't really tried to address or refute the notion that raerae and shraeye are partners at all, instead framing it as prima facie scummy/stupid. It is not.
I have not framed anything. I have asked questions to figure out whether your position is logically sound. Had I intended to present evidence that shraerae are town, I would have done so.
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raerae

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Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« Reply #473 on: October 18, 2019, 11:07:32 am »

Why does Rae defend Shraeye there? Why are they "town being shot just because MiX is angry" all of a sudden? The only thing that changed since the previous skum read on Shraeye is that Shraeye came in and hammered MiX. When MiX says they are vengeful they are either trolling or they are truthful, so assuming truthful... this just should make Shraeye more skummy to Rae. Right?
So why does scum!raerae defend town!shraeye?

because the only other person that was listed in MiX's list was me, and I am town.

the point you make is essentially the only reason I can entertain them both being skum.
I don't understand. What list? What does this have to do with raerae?

The list mix Gave when Rae defended Shraeye was choosing between me or Shraeye. They prob assumed mix was gonna veng Shraeye so they protected shraeye... with the worst case being mix goes me instead

Just gotta correct this, MiX said he couldn't vote for you because he could only vote for people on his wagon.
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Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« Reply #474 on: October 18, 2019, 11:09:38 am »

Vote: joth

Why joth over DatSwan when they're basically making the same argument?

This.

Also, you prefer Swan. Also 2x, Rae, vote Swan with me.

Why?
I don't have a good answer for this. I was under the impression that DatSwan initiated the idea, but I see that is not true. I'll unvote again, since things are so murky.
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