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Author Topic: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Game over ; Mafia wins flawlessly)  (Read 15518 times)

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silverspawn

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1500 on: October 09, 2019, 09:29:05 am »

Vote Count 5.1

Not Voting (7): mcmcsalot, EFHW, Debatepro, Joseph2302, e, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Day 5 ends at October 15, 10:00 Forum Time.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2019, 04:16:56 am by silverspawn »
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Debatepro

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1501 on: October 09, 2019, 09:36:28 am »

@Joseph - it could be interesting to set a reveal order on the duel to flush out information.

Since scum can hammer with any town vote we have to be careful. Not sure if setting a vote order could also be helpful.
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Joseph2302

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1502 on: October 09, 2019, 09:43:11 am »

@Joseph - it could be interesting to set a reveal order on the duel to flush out information.

Since scum can hammer with any town vote we have to be careful. Not sure if setting a vote order could also be helpful.
Proposed claim order:
e
Robz
ADK
Debatepro
EFHW
Mcmc
Joseph

Based on my scum/null/town reads, combined with my general impression of what people think about others
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1503 on: October 09, 2019, 10:00:49 am »

There it is. Iím obvi town to ADK, except in the endgame. Heís voted for every town Lynch, two hammers, and even sheepís Joseph as ďcoverĒ on the awaclus vote.

You need to chill a little, it's lylo, of course I'm going to be reconsidering my reads
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2.71828.....

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1504 on: October 09, 2019, 11:22:00 am »

I voted against the duel.
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Robz888

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1505 on: October 09, 2019, 11:37:08 am »

I also voted against the duel. It was hard for me to do so, but it seemed wrong to consign mcmc to death when he's not really a top scumread.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1506 on: October 09, 2019, 01:25:18 pm »


My biggest fear is this is town v town because my scum reads are being really hedgy about their votes.

Who are hedgy scum reads?

Robz and efhw

On top of the hedgyness the fact that they are now pushing this narrative that both e and awaclus are scum seems extremely silly.

My biggest concern with lynching awaclus is the fact that I donít think this is how scum!robz treats scum!awaclus. It looks more like scum!robz reacting to a duel on town!awaclus and town!e

This is not the point in the game where scum!robz busses a partner unless he has to and this isnít the way he would do it if he did have to.

@mcmc - where are you at on robz and efhw now that awaclus has flipped town?

So actually the awaclus town flip didnít change my reads on robz and efhw much.

I think robz is scummy but I donít really think he is scum partners with e. The way he played yesterday indicates either uncertain town!robz or scum!robz looking at town!e and town!awaclus.

Itís actually europe flipping town that is more illuminating because he was a huge null read and now figuring out what pairingís of who can and canít be scum together is a lot easier to figure out.

I think robz and efhw could easily be partners, they both talked a decent amount without pushing much yesterday and ended up split on what could easily have been a town v town duel.

On the other hand like I said robz could be uncertain town which would leave efhw, e, debate, and adk.

I could see a world where scum!efhw was bussing scum!e yesterday but I purposefully tried not to tip my hand as to which way I was leaning on awaclus/e early so that there was no way efhw knew it was safe to vote e if he is in fact her partner so itís a risky bus if it was one.

I have been townreading adk pretty much all game, itís my strongest read and none of the recent flips have really changed that. I will have to do some major rereading of adk later today to make sure Iím not just tunneling an early townread.

Super null on debate so I need to do rereading there as well because right now he just doesnít raise any red flags but isnít excluded from any partner groups.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Robz888

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1507 on: October 09, 2019, 01:33:31 pm »

Why are you townie on ADK? (Of course, you could respond my asking why I lean scum on ADK, and then I would have to supply a reason!)
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

Debatepro

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1508 on: October 09, 2019, 01:40:52 pm »

There it is. Iím obvi town to ADK, except in the endgame. Heís voted for every town Lynch, two hammers, and even sheepís Joseph as ďcoverĒ on the awaclus vote.

You need to chill a little, it's lylo, of course I'm going to be reconsidering my reads

In the history of telling people "to chill", it has never worked. Same with "calm down". :)

If you include me in your scum reads you will still be empirically 100% anti-town.   :-\
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EFHW

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1509 on: October 09, 2019, 02:17:58 pm »

I'm at the airport and just realized my ADK notes are at home. I  will try to reconstruct them. I am vla thru Sunday, but should be keeping up.
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Joseph2302

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1510 on: October 09, 2019, 02:52:28 pm »

I'm ill today, so not going to be posting or keeping up
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Debatepro

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1511 on: October 09, 2019, 02:55:58 pm »


Itís actually europe flipping town that is more illuminating because he was a huge null read and now figuring out what pairingís of who can and canít be scum together is a lot easier to figure out.

I think robz and efhw could easily be partners, they both talked a decent amount without pushing much yesterday and ended up split on what could easily have been a town v town duel.

Super null on debate so I need to do rereading there as well because right now he just doesnít raise any red flags but isnít excluded from any partner groups.

This got me to thinking about permutations, pairings, and exclusions.

All possible teams:
ADK,e,EFHW
ADK,e,MCMC
ADK,e,Robz
ADK,EFHW,MCMC
ADK,EFHW,Robz
ADK,MCMC,Robz
e,EFHW,MCMC
e,EFHW,Robz
e,MCMC,Robz
EFHW,MCMC,Robz

Exclusions:

EFHW & Robz  (EFHW 240, 510, 1147)
Leaves:
ADK,e,EFHW
ADK,e,MCMC
ADK,e,Robz
ADK,EFHW,MCMC
ADK,MCMC,Robz
e,EFHW,MCMC
e,MCMC,Robz

EFHW & e (EFHW 1451)
Leaves:
ADK,e,MCMC
ADK,e,Robz
ADK,EFHW,MCMC
ADK,MCMC,Robz
e,MCMC,Robz

ADK & Robz (ADK 960, 1287 & Robz 1278)
Leaves:
ADK,e,MCMC
ADK,EFHW,MCMC
e,MCMC,Robz

e & robz (e 508, 1040)
Leaves:
ADK,e,MCMC
ADK,EFHW,MCMC
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Debatepro

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1512 on: October 09, 2019, 03:10:29 pm »

I'm at the airport and just realized my ADK notes are at home. I  will try to reconstruct them. I am vla thru Sunday, but should be keeping up.

Please do, because if you are still willing to vote ADK as you did in 1235, then the team is: ADK, e, MCMC

No wonder we've been getting our @sses kicked.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1513 on: October 09, 2019, 03:33:32 pm »

Why are you townie on ADK? (Of course, you could respond my asking why I lean scum on ADK, and then I would have to supply a reason!)

It started because of how similar his thought process about the game has been. Specifically D1 the way he initially thought about dueling and then factored in odds/pr and then came back around to the initial vote based on reads assessment felt authentic and towny.
He has questioned and engaged me in a very ďI understand what your saying, I feel this way, now letís make a conclusion from this interactionĒ which feels extremely like a town player understanding you. I typically get a slight misrepresentation or piggyback feeling when scum engages with something Iím saying since Iím usually opinionated enough for scum to lean one way or the other.

The other major reason is how he reacted to the joth/joseph situation. He again posted clear thoughts corrected mine when I made some misstatements about how plausible the scum!jospeh conspiracy was and did it in a very towny way. He agreed with me on how scummy datswans retelling of the discussion he and I had was and nothing since then has really changed my thoughts.

So in summary heís thought most of what I have, engaged me in a towny way, and never really felt like he was buddying me.

So yea why do people find him scummy?
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

mcmcsalot

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1514 on: October 09, 2019, 03:35:48 pm »

Debate are you excluding anyone who has voted for each other from being potential scum partners or are you only factoring in times where bussing would not be a possibility?
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Debatepro

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1515 on: October 09, 2019, 05:19:16 pm »

Debate are you excluding anyone who has voted for each other from being potential scum partners or are you only factoring in times where bussing would not be a possibility?

Weíre getting pummeled, letís figure this ish out. If you have some reasons I should remove one or more exclusions and include others please chime in, I included the post numbers (last post first).

1. EFHW has been consistently on Robz even when no one else was and was willing to vote for him in an alternative wagon against Datswan.

2. EFHW and e - I pulled that one from you. It could be bussing, like Iíve said I would bus as scum at that point.

3. ADK & Robz - look at those votes, they donít feel like busses. Now ADK was an alternative choice in one of those, so maybe itís weaker.

4. E and Robz - Doesnít seem like bussing, look at 1040.

If we leave off 2 & 3, e is still in 80% of the teams. So are you.
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Debatepro

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1516 on: October 09, 2019, 05:52:31 pm »

Correction 2 & 4
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1517 on: October 09, 2019, 07:02:20 pm »

I think I'm next for vote claiming, I voted no

I have had a terrible record of reading mcmc in both the distant and recent past so I need to figure out if he's buddying me

Tomorrow is my day off so I will have time to post something of more substance
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Debatepro

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1518 on: October 09, 2019, 07:12:14 pm »

I voted no, although if I had done the analysis below I might have voted yes.
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Debatepro

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1519 on: October 10, 2019, 09:12:32 am »

@joseph - start thinking about a vote order, I'd hold it back for now we don't want to give scum too much runway to build counter narratives. If they were town, they would be putting in "good" work now.

Also, I feel good-ish about my first attempt at isolating potential scumteams, but want to look at other options and build a separate vote order. You should come up with your own and keep it private for the time being. I am happy to reveal my suggestion and vote first.
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Joseph2302

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1520 on: October 10, 2019, 09:49:26 am »

Claims for duel vote left:
EFHW
Mcmc
Joseph
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

EFHW

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1521 on: October 10, 2019, 12:55:13 pm »

I voted no. Not caught up.
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EFHW

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1522 on: October 10, 2019, 01:00:16 pm »

I object to Debate leaving himself out of his permutations analysis.  He is in no way IC, and it is misleading to post information that seems comprehensive but which is actually incomplete.
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EFHW

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1523 on: October 10, 2019, 01:02:55 pm »

I disagree with mcmc about ADK. I agree with the facts, but not the interpretation.  One of my strong impressions in reading him was that he spoke frequently about theory and infrequently about scumhunting topics. Sounding thoughtful and well reasoned as scum is a lot easier regarding theory than it is regarding pretending to scumhunt.
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EFHW

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #1524 on: October 10, 2019, 01:03:47 pm »

* reading them. I'll get it right eventually,  I promise.
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