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Author Topic: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Game over ; Mafia wins flawlessly)  (Read 39283 times)

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Awaclus

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1425 on: October 03, 2019, 04:27:03 pm »

There's also very little interaction between the two of them throughout the game (until today obviously), with the exception of an interesting exchange at the start of D2

It's not my fault if e starts posting scummy stuff in response to my vote.
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1426 on: October 03, 2019, 05:03:03 pm »

I think it's wishful thinking to suppose that they are both scum, but it doesn't feel like it a little bit since they aren't going after each other very hard.
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1427 on: October 03, 2019, 05:12:52 pm »

I think it's wishful thinking to suppose that they are both scum, but it doesn't feel like it a little bit since they aren't going after each other very hard.
If they were both scum wouldn't they be bussing as much as possible,  since one of them is definitely going to get caught?
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1428 on: October 03, 2019, 05:32:02 pm »

This is not the case obviously, but if we were both scum, the only thing worth doing here would be trying to get the more scumread one lynched instead of the more townread one. Which is going to happen anyway. If e gets lynched and flips scum, everyone will realize that I didn't have any choice but to vote for him so voting for him is not going to give me any town points or scum points anyway, so specifically bussing or avoiding it would be pointless.
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1429 on: October 03, 2019, 05:36:11 pm »

Eh, I guess it's counterproductive to point out real flaws in your partner's play so scum wouldn't do that. Which, I guess, makes us look particularly bad because e's case on me is based on fake news and my case on e, to the extent that I have one, is based on the fact that his case is based on fake news.
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1430 on: October 03, 2019, 06:17:50 pm »

I think it's wishful thinking to suppose that they are both scum, but it doesn't feel like it a little bit since they aren't going after each other very hard.

I guess the question is, if they're both scum, how does the third partner react? Probably voting early and confidently, which we haven't really seen from anyone, so that pokes a hole in that theory
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1431 on: October 03, 2019, 07:53:05 pm »

I mean I guess the real thing is though, Im the both scum scenario, the inevitability of a scum lynch would be demoralizing for scum, and this they would not work that hard building cases, which fits you both.
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1432 on: October 03, 2019, 07:53:17 pm »

*in the both
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EFHW

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1433 on: October 03, 2019, 08:39:10 pm »

I mean I guess the real thing is though, Im the both scum scenario, the inevitability of a scum lynch would be demoralizing for scum, and this they would not work that hard building cases, which fits you both.
Except they won't both die. Only one will flip, so they each want to persuade town that only one of them is scum. Two scum is statistically unlikely, so at least one of them would try to win this duel in a towny way so that we don't even consider the possibility that both are scum.
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1434 on: October 03, 2019, 09:34:36 pm »


My biggest fear is this is town v town because my scum reads are being really hedgy about their votes.

Who are hedgy scum reads?

Robz and efhw

On top of the hedgyness the fact that they are now pushing this narrative that both e and awaclus are scum seems extremely silly.

My biggest concern with lynching awaclus is the fact that I dont think this is how scum!robz treats scum!awaclus. It looks more like scum!robz reacting to a duel on town!awaclus and town!e

This is not the point in the game where scum!robz busses a partner unless he has to and this isnt the way he would do it if he did have to.
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1435 on: October 03, 2019, 09:46:06 pm »

Um, read it again. I was arguing against their both being scum.
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1436 on: October 03, 2019, 09:47:10 pm »

Maybe you mean ADK.
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1437 on: October 03, 2019, 09:50:18 pm »

I could see scum!Robz as a scum!e partner, but shouldn't we see who here is scum before voting based on partner speculation?
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1438 on: October 03, 2019, 09:55:43 pm »

Debate, I don't see you weighing in here at all. What are your thoughts?
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1439 on: October 03, 2019, 10:02:34 pm »

@e, Any response to my question about your reactions to my post on you?
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1440 on: October 03, 2019, 10:37:30 pm »

Debate, I don't see you weighing in here at all. What are your thoughts?

I doing my best by probing and providing info, I usually don't make it this far and we're moving. Here is where I am at. Im feeling pretty good about this duel. The lynch (#654) below is es hammer of pubby. Because I know my alignment we have all town and e on Robz with pubby at L1 in #643. So if you are town, on that pubby lynch, and have a strong town read for another person on that vote, then we have them.

Hypothetically, if eddie is town, the entire scum team was on pubby with an e hammer. If, as ADK et al have hypothesized that scum will stay off town, that leaves only eddie. In that case, which of the two is likely eddies partner. Ive seen eddie tunnel town as scum, which he is doing with e. So I wonder if how we feel about eddie may inform this decision.

Vote count at post #643   
   pubby (7): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, ADK, MiX, EFHW
   Robz (5): e, Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
   e (2): Eddie, Swan

Vote count at post #654   
   pubby ( 8 ): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, ADK, MiX, EFHW, e
   Robz (4): Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
   e (2): Eddie, Swan

I found EFHW and ADKs read on awaclus to be persuasive. Movers come tomorrow, so Ill be super busy IRL, but there will be some time and Ill keep up as best I can.
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1441 on: October 03, 2019, 10:40:42 pm »


My biggest fear is this is town v town because my scum reads are being really hedgy about their votes.

Who are hedgy scum reads?

Robz and efhw

On top of the hedgyness the fact that they are now pushing this narrative that both e and awaclus are scum seems extremely silly.

My biggest concern with lynching awaclus is the fact that I dont think this is how scum!robz treats scum!awaclus. It looks more like scum!robz reacting to a duel on town!awaclus and town!e

This is not the point in the game where scum!robz busses a partner unless he has to and this isnt the way he would do it if he did have to.

I would totally bus as scum at this point in the game. If what eddie said is true and we only have one mislynch left, a bus gets scum to the end.
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Awaclus

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1442 on: October 04, 2019, 04:38:00 am »

I could see scum!Robz as a scum!e partner, but shouldn't we see who here is scum before voting based on partner speculation?

Well, if e has likely partner narratives with a bunch of different people and the only person who makes sense as my scum partner is e, I definitely think that's something we should take into account today.
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1443 on: October 04, 2019, 05:19:46 am »

Debate, I don't see you weighing in here at all. What are your thoughts?

I doing my best by probing and providing info, I usually don't make it this far and we're moving. Here is where I am at. Im feeling pretty good about this duel. The lynch (#654) below is es hammer of pubby. Because I know my alignment we have all town and e on Robz with pubby at L1 in #643. So if you are town, on that pubby lynch, and have a strong town read for another person on that vote, then we have them.

Hypothetically, if eddie is town, the entire scum team was on pubby with an e hammer. If, as ADK et al have hypothesized that scum will stay off town, that leaves only eddie. In that case, which of the two is likely eddies partner. Ive seen eddie tunnel town as scum, which he is doing with e. So I wonder if how we feel about eddie may inform this decision.

Vote count at post #643   
   pubby (7): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, ADK, MiX, EFHW
   Robz (5): e, Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
   e (2): Eddie, Swan

Vote count at post #654   
   pubby ( 8 ): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, ADK, MiX, EFHW, e
   Robz (4): Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
   e (2): Eddie, Swan

I found EFHW and ADKs read on awaclus to be persuasive. Movers come tomorrow, so Ill be super busy IRL, but there will be some time and Ill keep up as best I can.
Yes I think Robz may well be scum. But Robz isn't one of the options right now
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1444 on: October 04, 2019, 05:20:09 am »

Robz/e/Awaclus is a plausible scum team I reckon
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1445 on: October 04, 2019, 05:21:35 am »

Every duel seems to had a lethargic amount of chat, and they've all been town/town

This has had more chat, so it feels like people are fighting for things i.e. there's at least one scum in the duel

This is best opportunity we've had so far to actually get scum
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1446 on: October 04, 2019, 10:16:00 am »

Sorry, haven't gotten around to responding to anything the last couple days.

EFHW: what am I supposed to say? "Yes, that is a very fair characterization of my play" or "No! Shame on you for mis-characterizing my play!"?
Because I didn't really see a "so what" on either Awaclus or me. Do you think one of us is scum or are you just creating content for the sake of content. Because that's scummy. And can be discussed tomorrow.
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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1447 on: October 04, 2019, 10:18:42 am »

So, the good news is I did a reread and came away with the conviction that there's a fairly decent chance that e and awaclus are both scum

Both awaclus and e have a lot of posts D1 and D2 that are low-content; joke posts and posts talking about the duels and the setup, with very little posts giving actual reads in between. Both voted early on datswan, yet were involved in very little of the following discussion

There's also very little interaction between the two of them throughout the game (until today obviously), with the exception of an interesting exchange at the start of D2

What struck me is that

1) It seems too immediately aware of the implications of the kill. e's post assumes awaclus's reasoning behind the vote, and that assumption goes unchallenged. It has the feeling of being a staged interaction to me

2) When the duel goes through, e lands on a glooble vote anyway, when he was willing to vote awaclus for voting there before

Awaclus:

The thread that most interested me on a reread is awaclus's interactions with mix and his subsuquent pushing of glooble. Awaclus's first post of the game is a (presumably RVS) vote for mix. He has quite a few posts after this that are pretty much contentless as far as reads or votes go. Then, he revotes for mix after mix votes him, with pretty flimsy reasoning. His position is that revealing duel votes is bad and something that scum would want, but at this point almost every player except him has expressed at least a willingness to claim their votes, and awaclus gives no reason to single out mix as particularly scummy

Then, on D2, awaclus pushes glooble. As summed up nicely by debate here, awaclus has a lot to say about how mix's reads in relation to glooble's scumminess (which he then disclaims without providing any alternative reasoning). Given that mix was scumreading awaclus, there's a reasonable scum narrative that awaclus is trying to deflect attention away from that aspect of the NK while pushing a fairly achievable mislynch

e:

A lot of e's posts have a feeling to me of being a sort of performative, look at me, I'm so unconcerned and towny vibe. Has a lot of posts that seem to be more about making an effort to appear active than actually pushing any sort of cases. Multiple DAMAs, claims to have voted for two duels that included himself. There isn't a strong thread like the awaclus-mix-glooble thing because he never seems particularly concerned about pushing anyone's lynch, only jumping on wagons after they've already been started

At the end of the day, I would happily vote for either of them, which I know is kind of a cop out, but I honestly think we may have hit the jackpot in a scum vs. scum duel

Our IC is on awaclus, so all other things being equal, I'm going to follow him there

vote: awaclus

L-1

See, this is much better than what EFHW did. Content AND... Awaclus and I are both scum.

I disagree with half of that assessment, but at least assessment is there
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Robz888

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1448 on: October 04, 2019, 11:01:33 am »


My biggest fear is this is town v town because my scum reads are being really hedgy about their votes.

Who are hedgy scum reads?

Robz and efhw

On top of the hedgyness the fact that they are now pushing this narrative that both e and awaclus are scum seems extremely silly.

My biggest concern with lynching awaclus is the fact that I dont think this is how scum!robz treats scum!awaclus. It looks more like scum!robz reacting to a duel on town!awaclus and town!e

This is not the point in the game where scum!robz busses a partner unless he has to and this isnt the way he would do it if he did have to.

I don't know that I am "pushing this narrative" that both e and Awaclus are scum. At this point it's a statistical possibility and not something to be automatically discounted, unlikely though it is. This is sloppier analysis than we usually see from you, mcmc!
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EFHW

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Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1449 on: October 04, 2019, 11:02:43 am »

Sorry, haven't gotten around to responding to anything the last couple days.

EFHW: what am I supposed to say? "Yes, that is a very fair characterization of my play" or "No! Shame on you for mis-characterizing my play!"?
Because I didn't really see a "so what" on either Awaclus or me. Do you think one of us is scum or are you just creating content for the sake of content. Because that's scummy. And can be discussed tomorrow.

I thought you might have something to say about your apparent confidence that you will win the duel and about the unevenness of your effort.
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