At the end of the day Swan, you’re going to have to do a better job of explaining why a scum team that is so far ahead would basically sacrifice one of their own in exchange for a tiny chance of outing the JK and a mislynch they could probably have secured anyway.
Otherwise I accept Jospeh’s behavior as weird, but I can’t buy it as scummy.
Sure.
Wake up Day 3 with 3vs8 (11 total). skum here would be considering two options:
1) Can they quick win this?
- Not really like in this set up after they do not get a kill last night. Even if they went mislynch+NK, then tomorrow mislynch+NK, we would still wake up Day 5 with 7 alive (3vs4).
- So their "quick win" is batting perfect and ending the game after a third mislynch at the end of Day 5.
- That would mean that as town we go 5 straight days without finding a single skum. Do you believe that to be likely?
2) So it must be a long game. OK. What are threats they need to deal with?
- Being a Town PR gain with a result is a pretty good thing to start with.
- Then, there is also the JK. The priority they would have would be to make sure the JK dies before they get a chance to claim relevant information that can fuck them over.
Coolio, consider this.
I am saying that I see a scenario where Joseph is Skum and Joth is Town. Here is the timeline I am using to justify that as a potential possibility. It is not convoluted, it is a timeline. Every choice skum would make in this assumption would of been due to the effects of the previous step of the timeline, not thought of in whole prior as a "master plan".
Night 2 - They have to choose a target. Let's say they did for some reason choose Joth. They also got info of the PR (in this scenario), so they do not have to worry about another PR out there that can proc.
Day 3 Starts - They wake up and there is no death. So the options are:
a) The skum that shot was JK'd - I find it extremely hard to believe that given how this game has gone so far that they would have a problem picking someone to carry out the kill that they are not essentially certain would not be JK'd. So, this one is in the trash for me... as it would be for them as well.
b) Joth was JK'd - Also in trash for me, as it would be for them as well. Why would the JK pick the counterpart of the duel in this spot? There could be reasons, but when compared to "c"..
c) Joth is the JK and they hit bulletproof. From a skum PoV, given the available options that could of happened at the beginning of Day 3... this would be the primary likely option.
***OK - now as you are reading take a second and pause. This is not a paranoia theory at this point. It is a lot of ideas, but they all are happening chronologically 1 at a time. NOT pre planned out. They made choice 1, cause created an option list, in which they made choice 2.***
Day 3 Mid - They choose to make a fake claim on Joth. Options to them at the time of this choice would be:
a) Joth is the JK. They out the JK. Now they have the JK. Since Joth is alive they still have their SM shot too. So they don't even have to kill Joth at night. They can, surprise, try to paint Joth's NK as skum (me), keeping either of the claims from flipping, then use their SM tonight on someone random to GTD they get the kill off, then when we wake up and Joth is alive... everyone is like... why is Joth alive? That is not outting one person for 1 mislynch... that is outting 1 person to get 1 mislynch, then a mislynch on the JK, and retain 2 NKs over that time.
b) Joth was JK'd by someone else. Of course this option doesn't really make sense right now, but at the time that they chose to target Joth, it is important to point it out. They would of considered this and thought that Joth would say it was a lie. At that point, I see the logic in how "that doesn't make sense for skum to choose this". However, remember that they would most likely been in a spot where they would think it was very unlikely for someone to JK Joth.
c) The shooter was JK'd. Again, there is no reason at this point in the game skum would think this is likely.
Late Day 3 - They play accordingly. As it happens, the most likely scenario was the correct one and Joth was JK. Then Joth obv claims targets. In a world where Joth was JK and also targeted skum on Night 2, they would hard push for that player being towny (not skummy as is happening). If Joth picked a Town target Night 2, they would paint that player as skummy (as is happening right now). Any which way, they get a minimum of a 1:1 trade and if Joth is the JK they end up getting a 1-2:1 trade, one of which eliminates the JK.
I hope that answers your question - that is literally the entire thought process I went through for that scenario.
I feel the need to end with this - That is not exactly what I think is the only thing in the world that could of happened. I just think that it is almost as likely as both of them being Town. Mainly based on the concept that I just do not see town freeking anyone choosing Joth as the Neo target last night. But I have been wrong in that type of scenario before. But then Joseph was on the duel list... and then we went no duel. When Joth was on the duel list, we went to duel. So, I guess I just want to make it clear that if I must be the lynch, don't go crusading mindlessly on Joseph after I flip. I mean, don't ignore him either, but there is a possibility that they are both town.